Global Grape Summit Trends in GB Grapes Joe Shaw Roberts ... › wp-content › ... · 7-60.000...
34
1 Global Grape Summit Trends in GB Grapes Joe Shaw Roberts Consumer Insight Director
Transcript of Global Grape Summit Trends in GB Grapes Joe Shaw Roberts ... › wp-content › ... · 7-60.000...
1
Global Grape Summit
Trends in GB Grapes
Joe Shaw RobertsConsumer Insight Director
2
A note on methodology
A sample of 30,000 Households weighted up to represent the GB population, measuring Grocery purchases taken into the home
Demographically representative (Age, Lifestage, Region, Social Class, Income)
Continuous, so we can track real changes in behaviour over time
4,200 household subset of the purchase panel
Staggered sample to ensure complete coverage across the year
1 week online diary completed for 11,000 individuals up to 4 times per year
PURCHASE USAGE
3
Today’s presentation covers:
Varieties Countries
Retail update
Varieties
Consumption
2014 2015 2016 2017
£755M£765M
£798M £801M
2018
£818M
5Table Grapes performance | Total Market | 52w/e 21 April 19 vs 52w/e 26 April 2015
PENETRATIONAV. PRICE FREQUENCY
18.2TRIPS
TRIP SIZE
£3.36PER KG
82.7% OF GB HH
+1.4%-15.1%+9.6%-1.2%
243M KGS
VOLUME
+9.6%
£818M SPEND
VALUE
+8.3%
0.6KGS
Frequency (shoppers buying more often) has been the main driver of Grapes value over the last 5 years.
Economy tier:2015 5% share2019 7% share
Discounters extra 6% share
65% 76%
6
In France and Germany, Table
Grapes are in value and volume decline
Can we learn anything from the
GB retail landscape?
7
-60.000 -40.000 -20.000 0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000
Total Grapes
Standard
Economy
Premium
Branded
Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Volume (kg) Price per kg GB HH Population
8.2
5.1
47.7
95.3
49.2
% Change
Looking at tiering, Standard Own Label has the lion’s share but growth comesfrom Economy and Premium.
Table Grapes performance | Total Market | 52w/e 21 April 19 vs 52w/e 26 April 2015
8
Growth of Economy Grapes results from wider retailer initiatives in Total Produce.
Farm Brand/ Store ranges the most significant entrants
Wholehead Fruit and Veg 52 we 27 January 2019
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
12 w
/e 2
7 A
pr
14
12
w/e
25
May
14
12
w/e
22
Jun
14
12
w/e
20
Ju
l 14
12 w
/e 1
7 A
ug
14
12 w
/e 1
4 S
ep 1
41
2 w
/e 1
2 O
ct 1
4
12 w
/e 0
9 N
ov
141
2 w
/e 0
7 D
ec 1
412
w/e
04
Jan
15
12 w
/e 0
1 F
eb 1
51
2 w
/e 0
1 M
ar 1
51
2 w
/e 2
9 M
ar 1
512
w/e
26
Ap
r 1
51
2 w
/e 2
4 M
ay 1
5
12
w/e
21
Jun
15
12
w/e
19
Ju
l 15
12 w
/e 1
6 A
ug
15
12 w
/e 1
3 S
ep 1
512
w/e
11
Oct
15
12 w
/e 0
8 N
ov
151
2 w
/e 0
6 D
ec
15
12
w/e
03
Jan
16
12
w/e
31
Jan
16
12 w
/e 2
8 F
eb 1
6
12
w/e
27
Mar
16
12 w
/e 2
4 A
pr
16
12
w/e
22
May
16
12
w/e
19
Jun
16
12
w/e
17
Ju
l 16
12 w
/e 1
4 A
ug
1612
w/e
11
Sep
16
12
w/e
09
Oct
16
12 w
/e 0
6 N
ov
161
2 w
/e 0
4 D
ec
16
12
w/e
01
Jan
17
12
w/e
29
Jan
17
12 w
/e 2
6 F
eb 1
71
2 w
/e 2
6 M
ar 1
712
w/e
23
Ap
r 1
71
2 w
/e 2
1 M
ay 1
712
w/e
18
Jun
17
12
w/e
16
Ju
l 17
12 w
/e 1
3 A
ug
17
12 w
/e 1
0 S
ep 1
7
12
w/e
08
Oct
17
12 w
/e 0
5 N
ov
171
2 w
/e 0
3 D
ec
17
12
w/e
31
De
c 1
71
2 w
/e 2
8 Ja
n 1
8
12 w
/e 2
5 F
eb 1
81
2 w
/e 2
5 M
ar 1
812
w/e
22
Ap
r 18
12
w/e
20
May
18
12
w/e
17
Jun
18
12
w/e
15
Ju
l 18
12 w
/e 1
2 A
ug
18
12 w
/e 0
9 S
ep 1
8
12
w/e
07
Oct
18
12 w
/e 0
4 N
ov
181
2 w
/e 0
2 D
ec
18
12
w/e
30
De
c 1
81
2 w
/e 2
7 Ja
n 1
9
Eco
no
my
SoT
%
Tesco launches Nightingale, Redmere, Rosedene and
Suntrail Farm ranges replacing Value range Asda Farm Store range
launches across core lines in Produce
Morrisons Wonky Fruit and Veg launch. In the latest 12
weeks Wonky delivered over £10m in sales
Aldi Wonky Fruit and Veg Launches
Waitrose Essential returns after patchy 12 months of
sales
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
12 w
/e 2
6 A
pr
15
12
w/e
24
May
15
12 w
/e 2
1 Ju
n 1
5
12
w/e
19
Ju
l 15
12 w
/e 1
6 A
ug
15
12 w
/e 1
3 S
ep 1
5
12 w
/e 1
1 O
ct 1
5
12 w
/e 0
8 N
ov
15
12 w
/e 0
6 D
ec 1
5
12 w
/e 0
3 J
an 1
6
12 w
/e 3
1 Ja
n 1
6
12 w
/e 2
8 F
eb 1
6
12 w
/e 2
7 M
ar 1
6
12 w
/e 2
4 A
pr
16
12
w/e
22
May
16
12 w
/e 1
9 Ju
n 1
6
12
w/e
17
Ju
l 16
12 w
/e 1
4 A
ug
16
12 w
/e 1
1 Se
p 1
6
12 w
/e 0
9 O
ct 1
6
12 w
/e 0
6 N
ov
16
12 w
/e 0
4 D
ec 1
6
12 w
/e 0
1 Ja
n 1
7
12 w
/e 2
9 J
an 1
7
12 w
/e 2
6 F
eb 1
7
12 w
/e 2
6 M
ar 1
7
12 w
/e 2
3 A
pr
17
12
w/e
21
May
17
12 w
/e 1
8 Ju
n 1
7
12
w/e
16
Ju
l 17
12 w
/e 1
3 A
ug
17
12 w
/e 1
0 S
ep 1
7
12 w
/e 0
8 O
ct 1
7
12 w
/e 0
5 N
ov
17
12 w
/e 0
3 D
ec 1
7
12 w
/e 3
1 D
ec 1
7
12 w
/e 2
8 J
an 1
8
12 w
/e 2
5 F
eb 1
8
12 w
/e 2
5 M
ar 1
8
12 w
/e 2
2 A
pr
18
12
w/e
20
May
18
12 w
/e 1
7 Ju
n 1
8
12
w/e
15
Ju
l 18
12 w
/e 1
2 A
ug
18
12 w
/e 0
9 S
ep 1
8
12 w
/e 0
7 O
ct 1
8
12 w
/e 0
4 N
ov
18
12 w
/e 0
2 D
ec 1
8
12 w
/e 3
0 D
ec 1
8
12 w
/e 2
7 J
an 1
9
Standard Premium Economy Branded Losses to Aldi Losses to Lidl
9
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n(£
M)
Switch
ing (£
M)
Tesco’s Farm Brands had a clear impact on switching losses to the Discounters
Overall share remained flat, which Tesco may consider a win
Wholehead Fruit and Veg 52 we 27 January 2019
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
12 w
/e 2
6 A
pr
15
12
w/e
24
May
15
12 w
/e 2
1 Ju
n 1
5
12
w/e
19
Ju
l 15
12 w
/e 1
6 A
ug
15
12 w
/e 1
3 S
ep 1
5
12 w
/e 1
1 O
ct 1
5
12 w
/e 0
8 N
ov
15
12 w
/e 0
6 D
ec 1
5
12 w
/e 0
3 J
an 1
6
12 w
/e 3
1 Ja
n 1
6
12 w
/e 2
8 F
eb 1
6
12 w
/e 2
7 M
ar 1
6
12 w
/e 2
4 A
pr
16
12
w/e
22
May
16
12 w
/e 1
9 Ju
n 1
6
12
w/e
17
Ju
l 16
12 w
/e 1
4 A
ug
16
12 w
/e 1
1 Se
p 1
6
12 w
/e 0
9 O
ct 1
6
12 w
/e 0
6 N
ov
16
12 w
/e 0
4 D
ec 1
6
12 w
/e 0
1 Ja
n 1
7
12 w
/e 2
9 J
an 1
7
12 w
/e 2
6 F
eb 1
7
12 w
/e 2
6 M
ar 1
7
12 w
/e 2
3 A
pr
17
12
w/e
21
May
17
12 w
/e 1
8 Ju
n 1
7
12
w/e
16
Ju
l 17
12 w
/e 1
3 A
ug
17
12 w
/e 1
0 S
ep 1
7
12 w
/e 0
8 O
ct 1
7
12 w
/e 0
5 N
ov
17
12 w
/e 0
3 D
ec 1
7
12 w
/e 3
1 D
ec 1
7
12 w
/e 2
8 J
an 1
8
12 w
/e 2
5 F
eb 1
8
12 w
/e 2
5 M
ar 1
8
12 w
/e 2
2 A
pr
18
12
w/e
20
May
18
12 w
/e 1
7 Ju
n 1
8
12
w/e
15
Ju
l 18
12 w
/e 1
2 A
ug
18
12 w
/e 0
9 S
ep 1
8
12 w
/e 0
7 O
ct 1
8
12 w
/e 0
4 N
ov
18
12 w
/e 0
2 D
ec 1
8
12 w
/e 3
0 D
ec 1
8
12 w
/e 2
7 J
an 1
9
Standard Premium Economy Branded Losses to Aldi Losses to Lidl
10
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n(£
M)
Switch
ing (£
M)
Asda Farm Store range saw a similar impact
Likely that continued gains linked to store recovery
Wholehead Fruit and Veg 52 we 27 January 2019
11
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
12w/e20Jul14
12w/e14
Sep14
12w/e09
Nov14
12w/e04Jan15
12w/e01
Mar15
12w/e26Apr15
12w/e21Jun15
12w/e16
Aug15
12w/e11Oct15
12w/e06
Dec15
12w/e31Jan16
12w/e27
Mar16
12w/e22
May16
12w/e17Jul16
12w/e11
Sep16
12w/e06
Nov16
12w/e01Jan17
12w/e26
Feb17
12w/e23Apr17
12w/e18Jun17
12w/e13
Aug17
12w/e08Oct17
12w/e03
Dec17
12w/e28Jan18
12w/e25
Mar18
12w/e20
May18
12w/e15Jul18
12w/e09
Sep18
12w/e04
Nov18
12w/e30
Dec18
12w/e24
Feb19
12w/e21Apr19
Asda value share
Asda volume share
Asd
a sh
are
of
trad
e g
rap
es
%
Asda Farm Stores Grapes launch
What impact have Farm ranges had on Grapes?
General theme: more beneficial to volume share than value share
Total Grapes | Asda | 12w/e 21st April 2019
12
Wonky Fruit and Veg also driving value tier growth
Morrisons owns the Wonky range performance but Asda and Aldi both playing in the area
Wholehead Fruit and Veg 52 we 27 January 2019
£63.8MSales in 2018
+£38.1MSpend Growth
5.5Times a year
33.5%Penetration
Consumer demand exists outside of retail with consumers turning to
schemes like Oddbox, who provide weekly deliveries of locally sourced
produce of all shapes and sizes‘4 meals for a large
family’ - £17.25
13
But while low price is a focus in Produce, the market sees prices increasing
A number of factors contributing to overall ‘inflation’ we see in the market
Wholehead Fruit and Veg 52 we 27 January 2019
Premium Ranges Promotional CutbackHigh Price KG GrowthInflation of like for like
1.2%Inflation in the latest 12
weeks
53Sectors with higher than average price per KG’s in
growth
+3.4%The growth of premium
ranges
Shallower, lower volumes
of Deal
Price Increase +1.4%
14
MAIN ESTATE CONVENIENCE ONLINE
-5% +29% +31%
Turning our attention to channels, grapes growth is found outside classic supermarkets, which are still the majority of Grapes transactions.
DISCOUNTERS
+56%
Total Grapes | Total Market | 52w/e 21st April 2019
15
-60.000 -40.000 -20.000 0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000
TOTAL MARKET
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury's
Morrisons
The Co-Operative
Waitrose
Marks & Spencer
Ocado
Iceland
Aldi
Lidl
Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Volume (kg) Price per kg GB HH Population
8.2
6.3
-10.8
-1.5
-7.1
44.6
-0.7
19.1
13.5
26.0
41.5
85.3
% Change
Aldi, Lidl and Co-Op have driven the market over the last 5 years –frequency and new shoppers helping each of them.
Table Grapes performance | Total Market | 52w/e 21 April 19 vs 52w/e 26 April 2015
16
Spen
d %
The pattern fits the Discounter disruption we see in Total Produce
11.4% to 17.2% share over 5 years
Wholehead Fruit and Veg 52 we 27 January 2019
26,2 25,4 25,6 25,7 25
13,5 12,7 11,7 11,3 11,5
16,216,1 15,7 15,4 14,8
10,810,1 9,8 9,8 9,8
4,54,5 4,8 4,6 4,8
0,90,9 0,9 0,9 0,9
6,66,6 6,5 6,2 6,3
0,91 1,1 1,2 1,3
6,37,9 8,7 9,4 9,9
5,1 5,9 6,6 7,2 7,3
3,3 3,4 3,6 3,5 3,5
5,7 5,5 5 4,8 4,9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
52 w/e 26 Apr 15 52 w/e 24 Apr 16 52 w/e 23 Apr 17 52 w/e 22 Apr 18 52 w/e 21 Apr 19
All others
Marks & Spencer
Lidl
Aldi
Ocado Internet
Waitrose
Iceland
The Co-Operative
Morrisons
Sainsbury's
Asda
Tesco
Retail section recap
17
Long term growth comes from alternative channels; Discounter
disruption mirrors Produce.
Economy ranges a success in driving volume share; less so value share.
18
WHITE RED MIXED
-3% +4% +33%
BLACK
+70%
Long term growth comes outside White Grapes – driven by purchase frequency and new shoppers.
Table Grapes performance | Total Market | 52w/e 21 April 19 vs 52w/e 26 April 2015
19
300 tonnes
As such, the main movement of volume in the latest year is from White Grapes to Red Grapes.
Table Grapes switching | Total Market | 52w/e 21 April 19 vs last year
20
Compared to Total Grapes, there are some subtle differences in the demographics of households buying these different grape varieties:
Younger, less affluent
More affluent
Older, more affluent
More families, more affluent
Grapes demographics | Total Market | 52w/e 21 April 19
21
26,7
31,628,9
12,8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 variety 2 varieties 3 varieties 4 varieties
Bu
yers
%Over a year, it’s common for shoppers to buy multiple types of Grapes.
Table Grapes variety engagement | 52w/e 21 April 19
22
9,43
21,12
33,41
48,28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 variety 2 varieties 3 varieties 4 varieties
Ave
rage
sp
end
per
bu
yer
(£)
But the more we can encourage shoppers to buy different varieties, the more value they will bring to the category.
Table Grapes variety engagement | 52w/e 21 April 19
23
1 type 2 types 3 types 4 types
AFFLUENT OLDERSHOPPING IN DISCOUNTERS
Heavier shoppers are likelier to be older with more disposable income, yet also more likely to shop in the Discounters, and more engaged with other fruits.
BUYING APPLES, BANANAS, CITRUS
Increasing likelihood to be:
Table Grapes shopper behaviour | 52w/e 21 April 19
24
Can link deals with Apples, Bananas and
Citrus help drive higher engagement with
Grapes?
25
The incentives for doing so are substantial.
Shoppers who buy 2 types
Shoppers who buy 3 types
10% of them buy 3 types
10% of them buy 4 types
£9M
£10M
Which retailers are already linking deals with other Fruit?
26
Morrisons Y for £XAldi Super 6
Pineapple, Mini Apples, Grapes, Bananas, Sweet bite Peppers, Plums
All at 66p – from 23rd April 2019
Varieties section recap
27
We should be encouraging shoppers to buy into different varieties of
Grapes.
Link deals, or location near Apples, Bananas and Citrus could help to
drive this.
28
Grapes feature at
10% of all fruit consumption
occasions
Kantar Worldpanel Usage | Grapes % of total Fruit | 52 w/e 02 Dec 2018
Taking a step back…
29Kantar | Worldpanel Division | Usage | Pineapples | 52 w/e 30th Dec 2018
Breakfast is even more key to Grapes performance
than it is to Total Fruit.
Without Breakfast, Grape performance is in decline.
Grapes need to look for growth in other occasions.
One of these occasions is the in home lunch, which is holding Grapes back.
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Usage, 52w/e occasions, in home lunch 52 w/e Dec 2018
-3%vs last year
-17%vs last year
TOTA
L FRU
ITG
RA
PES
IN HOME LUNCH
Foods commonly eaten with grapes could be contributing to this decline
Grapes are paired with other fruit on nearly 60%
of occasions (+20m occasions vs last year)
But can we turn this performance around by understanding host foods?
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Usage, 52w/e occasions, 52 w/e Dec 2018
32
16%
Practicality82 vs total fruit
61%
Enjoyment101 vs total fruit
86%
Health107 vs total fruit
Kantar Worldpanel Usage | Grapes | Need States | 52 w/e Dec 2018
Grapes are consumed for enjoyment and health more than the average fruit.
Communicate these qualities to consumers
33
…and if grapes can hit more consumer needs, they can grow in value.
1 Need 2 Needs 3 Needs 4 Needs
+9%
+16%
+24%Retail premium per serving based on number of reasons for choice
Consumption summary
34
More reasons for consumption = higher retail premium.
Boost in home lunch occasion by targeting host foods.
Could smaller pack formats boost consumption on the move?
