Global Forecast – Q2 Global Forecast Q2.pdfpolicies. Meanwhile, Kenya’s new plan to build a...

G4S Risk Consulting

Global Forecast – Q2

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For further G4S Risk Management analysis and advice, please contact [email protected]

The Global Intelligence System (GIS) is an online monitoring system providing geopolitical intelligence on current and future threats to corporate security, travel and business continuity. GIS uses a quantitative risk rating model and qualitative analysis to assess the threat level in 220 countries and territories. For further information and to sign up for a 30-day complimentary trial, please visit gis.g4s.com or contact the team at [email protected]

Africa

Ian Betts Global Head of Risk Analysis, G4S Risk Consulting

[email protected]

FOREWORD

Following on from the success of our 2015 Global Forecast, the GIS Risk Analysis team have compiled the Global Forecast – Q2. The report focuses on the key thematic threats in the regions for the coming three months, providing insight by subject matter experts into the fluid global security landscape.

Key issues include the global threat of militancy as Islamic State (IS) continues to draw recruits and allegiances from established militant groups in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. The perceived threat encompasses the wider world as nations remain concerned over the threat posed by returning fighters and self-radicalised individuals. An attack similar to the Paris and Denmark attacks in Q1 is highly likely in Q2.

Corruption remains a key threat to political stability. Authorities in the Asia-Pacific will continue to make strides in strengthening anti-corruption drives, with a particular focus on pervasive practices in China and Indonesia. In the Americas, many incumbent governments are facing a wave of popular discontent over high-level corruption and impunity in the security forces. The damage to leaders’ integrity due to embroilment in corruption scandals threatens to stall proposed reforms, exacerbating stagnating economies. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, anti-corruption measures remain a central focus of the new government, but remain hampered by perceived impunity as former regime members go unpunished.

Source: Global Intelligence System (GIS)

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:gis.g4s.com



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Table of Contents __________________________________

Africa ................................................................................................................................................ 3

Middle East and North Africa ........................................................................................................... 4

South Asia........................................................................................................................................ 5

Asia-Pacific ...................................................................................................................................... 6

Americas .......................................................................................................................................... 7

Europe ............................................................................................................................................. 8

Russia & CIS .................................................................................................................................... 9

Map Key:

Increasing Risk Area to watch /

trigger point Declining Risk


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Militant advances reversed The threats posed by groups behind sub-Saharan Africa’s two leading insurgencies – Somalia’s al-Shabaab and Nigeria’s Boko Haram – are set to continue as per current trends without decisive shifts over the coming quarter. Although a regional force has gone some way towards repelling the Boko Haram offensive, patchy cooperation with Nigeria’s neighbours, particularly Chad, will limit the effectiveness of the joint military offensive. Whether successes will hold is largely dependent on Nigerian post-presidential election policies. Meanwhile, Kenya’s new plan to build a border wall to cut itself off from southern Somalia is indicative of increasing impatience in Nairobi at the failure of the government of Somalia to extend its control. AMISOM advances and US drone strikes against militant commanders have put al-Shabaab at a disadvantage, but the group continues to demonstrate its ability to launch targeted attacks. Further attacks on diplomatic, AMISOM and foreign targets are expected in Q2, with a particular likelihood of the deployment of suicide bombers.

Political Unrest There is a significant risk of post-election violence during the coming quarter. Nigeria (11 April), Sudan (2 April), Togo (15 April), Ethiopia (24 May) and Burundi (26 May) all have upcoming elections in which violence may occur in the event of disputed polls and protests led by defeated candidates. With a number of presidential elections set to take place in 2015 and 2016, incumbent presidents are beginning to address constitutional limitations, angering citizens. Crackdowns on opposition are expected to continue into the second quarter, particularly in DR Congo, Angola and Burundi, where opposition and democracy activists, as well as journalists, have already been targeted by arrests.

Continuation of West Africa public health crisis

Although Ebola transmission has declined since December 2014, the World Health Organisation (WHO) continues to warn that the outbreak is ongoing. In Guinea, case numbers continue to rise as another health emergency has been declared, raising concerns that public health campaigns around burial rites are failing to gain traction. Besides Ebola, rising case numbers in other communicable diseases, particularly measles, are expected to continue in the coming months. Devastated public health infrastructure will struggle to address these diseases, raising the risk of another disease outbreak in West Africa.

SOUTH SUDAN: Increase

in fighting as rainy season ends

NIGERIA: Possible post-

election unrest amid disputes over electoral processes

Africa

ZIMBABWE: Growing

cases of cholera; concern over renewed outbreak




Middle East and North Africa

Effectiveness of anti-IS campaign Despite continuing reports of successful airstrikes and that Islamic State (IS) has lost momentum, the US-led coalition and the Iraqi and Syrian security forces are unlikely to be able to dislodge IS from the territory it has seized, in particular in Syria. The current operation to recapture Tikrit will prove a test for the future offensive in Mosul, both in terms of strategy and chances of success. Reports on 31 March from the government indicate security forces have taken control of the city, but an IS presence remains. Failure to secure complete control of Tikrit would prove a major setback for the Iraqi government and the coalition, and force a complete strategic review. The growing influence and visibility of Iran-backed Shi’a militias in Iraq threatens to further exacerbate sectarian tensions.

Although US airstrikes are proving useful in halting the advance of IS, a lack of ground capability means that militants are retaining their presence and posing a long-term threat to security. As there is little evidence that the US-led coalition plans to change its strategy, the insurgency in northern Iraq will continue in the coming quarter.

Regional rise of IS Multiple militant groups from Yemen and Saudi Arabia, to Libya and Egypt have pledged allegiance to Islamic State (IS). The rise of IS is largely attributable to the dearth of government power in near-failing states, as is the case in Yemen and Libya. However, there is little indication that these groups have any direct contact with IS commanders in Iraq and Syria, instead adopting the symbolism and reputation of the group for their own propaganda purposes. As such, the groups do not demonstrate greater capabilities, but may have greater intent to carry out attacks on critical infrastructure, state institutions and foreign operations. IS and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have called on Muslims to attack Western personnel and interests in their countries. Foreign personnel face the threat of kidnap, due to the potential for high ransoms. This is particularly pertinent in remote working locations, such as desert hydrocarbon sites in Libya and Algeria.

Rising prospects of fully-fledged civil war Multiple and intertwined security threats in the absence of state control have contributed to the escalation of instability in Yemen and Libya. With rival parties claiming legitimacy, civil war in both countries is a real possibility in the coming months. As well as inter-government clashes, the power vacuum has allowed militant groups to exploit the lack of state control, establishing their own rule and influence over large swathes of ungovernable territory. With political dialogue having little influence on the ground, rival sides are increasingly encroaching into each other’s territories, raising the potential for fully-fledged civil war. International intervention heightens the risk further, with a Saudi-led coalition tipping parts of Yemen into full-scale conflict in the early days of Q2. Terrorist attacks in urban areas in Yemen and Libya are likely to increase, with cross-border assaults into neighbouring countries, such as Algeria and Tunisia, also likely due to increased lawlessness. Both countries may see an increase in training camps for militants seeking to join Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda (AQ). As a result, greater emphasis will be placed on sensitive and porous border areas, with heightened border controls and patrols and more regional cooperation is likely.

TUNISIA/ALGERIA: Increased border patrols targeting growing militancy

EGYPT: Political stability

continues under Sisi’s firm grip on power

GULF/IRAN: Heightened

regional tensions over escalating Yemen conflict




South Asia Political unrest to continue in Bangladesh More than 100 people have been killed in political violence since 6 January, as anti-government Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) activists take to the streets to demand fresh elections. The government has arrested hundreds of activists amid claims of extrajudicial killings and political repression. With the BNP’s survival under threat, activists will continue to engage in violent acts in a bid to force Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to dilute her offensive. For her part, Hasina is reluctant to afford the BNP and Islamist parties political space. Such restrictions could force Islamist parties to engage in militancy, with the potential for a ready pool of disaffected opposition sympathisers. Meanwhile, the economic effects of the BNP blockade and protests are expected to reach USD 2 billion, with investors deterred by doubts over long-term stability. Insurgency in Afghanistan and Pakistan The Afghan Taliban will continue their attacks in the wake of the US decision to prolong its military presence through 2015 and as the fighting season begins in late April. The targeting of law enforcement and security personnel will test the robustness of the security apparatus. Meanwhile, the Pakistan military will persist in its offensive against militant elements in the tribal region, pushing Pakistani Taliban fighters closer to and into Afghanistan. The threat of retaliatory attacks is high, with government personnel and religious minorities the prime targets for militants. Wider talks between Kabul and Islamabad will be useful, with pressure from China. However, the talks are unlikely to result in tangible results, such as a ceasefire, given the conflicting demands of the Afghan Taliban. Threat of communal violence Recent religious unrest in India has added to the perception of the Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as a communally divisive force. The view remains that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rhetoric has done little to assuage the fears of minorities, while also creating a climate of impunity for hardline Hindu groups. Incidents of forced conversions, provocative speeches and the controversial Land Acquisition Ordinance have charged communal tensions. There are likely to be further disputes, both politically and among sensitive locations, and unrest will see the heavy deployment of police to affected areas. A terrorist attack linked to Islamist extremists will also provoke communal violence. In Pakistan, the threat of suicide and bomb attacks on the places of worship of both Muslims and non-Muslims is high in the short-term. The lack of security enforcement and due judicial process is driving vigilante mobs, while fear of antagonising religious groups ensures that little progress will be made in amending blasphemy laws and with it, protecting minority communities. Though incidents of religious violence between Buddhists and Muslims in Sri Lanka have decreased since 2014, the government may introduce a bill prohibiting religious extremist groups.

NEPAL: Opposition protests

over failure to reach consensus on draft constitution

PAKISTAN: Security forces

continue operations against criminal elements in Karachi

SRI LANKA: Formation of

national unity government brings stability until parliamentary elections




Asia-Pacific Varying degrees of success in anti-corruption measures Authorities in the Asia-Pacific will continue to strengthen their anti-corruption drives. In China, the political elements of President Xi Jinping’s campaign have made headlines, but its pervasive and far-reaching implications ensure that efforts will continue apace. More high-profile officials are expected to be implicated. Civil society and foreign investors in Indonesia will harbour doubts about the government’s ability to enforce its drive for clean governance, with the Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK), police and attorney-general’s office involved in a dispute over a probe into a candidate for national police chief. Though damage has been done to the KPK through this period of conflict, with its leadership impacted by legal action, there is strong support for the agency, but recent developments indicate that the institution will be subject to increased political pressure, nonetheless, and ‎may have lost a degree of the independence for which it had been known. Reviews of the recently passed anti-corruption bill in South Korea are to continue amid opposition over possible abuse and effective media censorship.

Kokang unrest a test for China-Myanmar relations Ethnic violence in Myanmar’s northern Kokang region is forecast to continue, and clashes between the military and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) could spread to Kachin. China was forced to issue stern warnings after Myanmar’s air force mistakenly bombed Chinese territory in Lincang in March. Chinese jets are now patrolling the skies to deter further accidental incursions. Warnings from Beijing will placate nationalists in China, but will also test its traditional non-interference policy given that many in the region are ethnic Chinese, and an influx of refugees into China will continue. However, commercial and strategic goals are expected to override the souring of relations and Beijing is unlikely to press Myanmar to pursue peace talks with the MNDAA. Domestic crisis threatens political stability in SE Asia Political stability is being threatened in several Southeast Asian countries due to domestic crisis and uncertainty. A false calm prevails in Thailand following the imposition of martial law and the postponement of elections until 2016, but efforts to impeach former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra and concerns over the royal succession in the event of the death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej will continue to preoccupy the ruling junta. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak faces political challenges, tasked with maintaining the stability of the ruling BN in the wake of internal struggles within his coalition parties. Allegations of corruption over the sovereign wealth fund and the repression of political opponents will merely increase scrutiny. Even popular Philippines President Benigno Aquino is entering a phase of intense opposition following a botched January raid against Islamist rebels in Mindanao, with efforts now required to ensure that peace talks and deals for the region are not derailed.

HONG KONG: Protests over

mainland tourists may spark isolated outbreaks of violence

PHILIPPINES: The military

persists with its campaign against rebels groups

NORTH KOREA: Speculation

of a nuclear test will increase tensions with South Korea and US

CHINA: Attacks by Uighur

separatists in Xinjiang continue amid an elevated security presence




Americas

Increasing public outcry over corruption and impunity

Many incumbent governments are facing a wave of popular discontent over high-level corruption and impunity in the security forces. The damage to the integrity of leaders due to their embroilment in corruption scandals threatens to stall proposed reforms, exacerbating stagnating economies. In Mexico, protests over security forces are likely to continue over the case of the missing students from Iguala, while the involvement of President Pena Nieto and his wife in “mortgage-gate” may result in political instability. Low oil prices have forced Nieto to slash spending, heightening the likelihood of continued public hostility. In Brazil, a continued public backlash over the Petrobras scandal is expected, with large-scale protests over government corruption compounded by a declining economy and an unpopular president. In the Dominican Republic, revelations over the extent of police involvement in organised crime may translate into increased protests over their impunity, calls for dismissals and the reform of the security sector.

Contraband seizures

Seizure of contraband and the arrest of high-profile drug syndicate leaders continue to dominate local reporting, indicating that the war on drugs remains a primary security concern in Latin American countries. Peru has recorded increased contraband seizures amid reports that they will reinvigorate a shoot down policy against narco-planes. Paraguay has been identified as a transhipment point for drug syndicates, possibly translating into a more overt counter-narcotics effort by security forces. Money-laundering raids in Argentina and increased narcotics raids in Brazil indicate that governments will continue to publicise all positive developments in contraband seizures as a means to justify high security spending. Seizures in the Caribbean highlight the resurgence of the islands as a transhipment point to Europe, with transnational cooperation likely to feature prominently in the coming months in efforts to counter the growing trade.

Socio-economic protests

With many countries in Latin America, including Brazil, forecast to enter recession in late 2015, there is likely to be an increase in protests over socio-economic concerns in the next quarter. In Venezuela, rising commodity prices and large-scale shortages may result in street protests, although these will be dealt with by the authorities through the arrest of agitators and by dispersing blame among the opposition and foreign conspirators. Spending cuts and tax increases will likely trigger further industrial strikes, particularly in Brazil and Colombia, where there is the potential for the recurrence of disruptive trucker strikes in the next quarter. Environmental protests in Peru, linked to concerns over environmental damage and lack of local employment, are likely in the coming months as the development of oil and gas sources is set to continue in restive indigenous areas.

US & CANADA: Continuing

reports of arrests, with the likelihood of an attack or attempted attack related to IS high.

VENEZUELA: Unrest related to

commodity shortages and political repression

COLOMBIA: Decline in FARC

violence, but other rebel groups are filling the void, often in concert with criminal gangs

ECUADOR: Increased protests

over attempts to amend constitutional term limits




Europe

Ongoing threat linked to Islamist terrorism in Western Europe Western Europe is likely to see a continued focus on militant Islamist threats linked to Islamic State (IS), al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda-affiliated groups. Denmark, France and the UK continue to express concern over possible attacks. Danish authorities carried out a series of counter-terrorism operations in mid-March in Copenhagen, arresting five suspects over links to the 14-15 February attacks. The UK also continues to make arrests linked to suspected radicalised individuals seeking to travel to Syria to join IS and other Islamist groups. French counter-terrorist officials announced on 23 March that the terrorism threat was “unprecedented”, and that future attacks, similar to the 7-9 January attacks in Paris, are inevitable. Other countries, including Spain, Norway, Belgium and Austria, have also experienced alerts and attacks linked to militant Islamists. Further toughening of counter-terrorism strategies and legislation is anticipated over the next three months, while an attack on a similar scale to Paris or Copenhagen in a Western European major city appears likely.

Continued anti-austerity protests Further anti-austerity protests and strikes are expected in the coming three months. Union strikes are expected in the UK prior to and after the general election in May. Labour strikes have also been held in Italy, Portugal, Germany and Scandinavia, impacting public services, railways and aviation. Further strike action, likely disruptive to public transport, is anticipated in the second quarter of 2015 as governments continue to pursue unpopular austerity measures. Protests over austerity are also likely as seen in Frankfurt on 18 March and Madrid on 21 March.

Fluctuation in far-right rallies The recent terrorist attacks in Paris in January and Copenhagen in February have triggered an increase in support for the far-right. While some countries in Western Europe will likely see a decline in far-right protests, such as the Pegida movement in Germany, other countries could see a rise in rallies by extreme right-wing groups. Pegida’s attempt to expand support to other countries has largely stalled, although plans are in place to hold further Pegida spin-off rallies in the UK. Further far-right rallies under the auspices of the “anti-Islamisation” of Europe will occur in the short-to-medium term, potentially resulting in clashes with police and counter-demonstrators. Such rallies are possible in the UK, Germany, Austria, France and Scandinavia,

although support will vary considerably depending on the country.

GERMANY: Anticipated decline in Pegida rallies

FRANCE: Further counter-

terrorism operations linked to IS and AQ

GREECE: Potential for civil

unrest and major fiscal crisis if reform package deal and financial aid is not agreed in April

TURKEY: Rising political

instability as ruling AKP starts to show internal divisions




Russia & CIS

Russian regime stability in doubt after Nemtsov killing outside the Kremlin

The murder of opposition politician Boris Nemtsov and the emergence into the public domain of a power struggle between two pillars of Vladimir Putin’s regime – Chechen warlord-cum-politician Ramzan Kadyrov and the FSB intelligence agency – is casting doubt over political stability. Given the suspicion that Putin is in ill health after his unexplained disappearance from public view, there are growing concerns that the political system is struggling to contain the rising pressures that are resulting from the economy entering a deep recession. Kremlin infighting, violence in eastern Ukraine and bellicose rhetoric are set to characterise the coming quarter. Uneven reforms mean slow progress in building

economic confidence in Ukraine The IMF’s long-awaited decision to approve a USD 17.5 billion loan over four years has brought relief to Ukrainian policy-makers, with the first tranche of USD 5 billion doubling the country’s foreign reserves. Nevertheless, it will not be sufficient to turn around Ukraine’s economy, which is now forecast to decline by up to 12 percent this year. Confidence is in decline, oligarchs are suffering major losses, there is a run on banks and uneven reforms are failing to attract investment. Anti-corruption legislation is being hampered by the presence of former regime figures whose alleged involvement in corruption has gone unchallenged. Elite infighting is increasing as calls emerge for a review of the past privatisations of state-held assets. Middling levels of support from the EU and US are forcing Ukraine to take harder action against Russia: in April, Kiev is threatening to simply cease buying Moscow’s gas. In the backdrop, the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine will continue to block Ukraine’s attempt to turn itself westwards.

Russian policy impacting on outlook for Central Asian leaders The flagging Russian economy and the absence of clear succession plans for ageing leaders ensures that the outward show of stagnant stability will retain an undercurrent of uncertainty. Tajikistan has re-elected the ruling pro-Moscow People’s Democratic Party of Tajikistan in a poll that received minimal praise from monitors. Uzbekistan’s President Karimov was re-elected in a landslide victory on 29 March, despite rumours of ill health. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazabayev will almost certainly be re-elected in a snap election on 26 April. In Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan the decline in remittances from Russia is increasing pressure on weak economies with fragile states.

UKRAINE: Continuing

clashes in Donbass will threaten ceasefire


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