Global Food Security: The Role of Research Bob Watson Chief Scientific Advisor, UK Defra Strategic...
-
date post
22-Dec-2015 -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
1
Transcript of Global Food Security: The Role of Research Bob Watson Chief Scientific Advisor, UK Defra Strategic...
Global Food Security: The Role of Research
Bob Watson
Chief Scientific Advisor, UK Defra
Strategic Director Tyndall Centre, UEA
Former Director of the IAASTD
Leeds University
22nd June, 2011
Current Situation and Future Challenges for Agriculture
Current Situation
Current situation
• More than one billion people go to bed
hungry every day
• People have benefited unevenly
from yield increases across
regions, in part because of different
institutional and policy
environments – rural development,
market and trade policy failures
• Emphasis on increasing yields and
productivity has in some cases had
negative consequences on
environmental sustainability – soils,
water, biodiversity, climate change
….and failing to end hunger
Undernourishment data versus the MDG target
Source: Oxfam (2010) Data cited from FAO Hunger Statistics (from 1969 to 2006); UN (2009)
2007-08 Food price spike
Mill
ions
Sub-title here
Bullet text here
Bullet text here
Bullet text here
Bullet text here
Agriculture and Environmental Degradation
Can GHG emissions be reduced without impacting productivity
How will the loss of genetic diversity affect future agriculture?
Can soil and water degradation be reversed and productivity enhanced?
Can crop, animal and fish traits be improved to address the projected changes in climate – what are the roles of traditional breeding and modern forms of biotechnology – genomics?
Current Challenges
Access to current technologiesAccess to best seeds, agro-chemicals, and irrigation
Knowledge about agro-ecological practices – INRM, IPM, and use of seasonal climate projections to reduce vulnerability to current climate variability
Reduce post-harvest loss and food waste
Rural development Extension services
Financing
Roads – access to markets
Trade reform Eliminate OECD production subsidies
Eliminate tariff escalation on processed products
Recognize the special needs of the least developed countries through non- reciprocal market access
Action on waste and demand
”
Waste in different countries
Current situation and Future Challenges
Future Challenges
Future Challenges
The demand for food will double within the next 25-50 years, primarily in developing countries, and the type and nutritional quality of food demanded will change
We need sustained growth in the agricultural sector (crops, livestock, fisheries, forests, biomass, and commodities):
to feed the world
to enhance rural livelihoods
to stimulate economic growth
Meet food safety standards
environmentally and socially sustainable manner
The Context - Limitations
Less labor - diseases and rural to urban migration
Less water – competition from other sectors and climate
change in arid- and semi-arid areas
Yield increases are slowing dramatically
Less arable land – competition, e.g., bio-energy
Increasing land policy conflicts
Loss of biodiversity: genetic, species and ecosystem
Increasing levels of pollution – ozone and acid deposition
A changing climate – temperature and precipitation
Cereal Yield Increases
Surface Temperature Projections
Precipitation Projections
Impact on Wheat Production
Page 14
Page 15
Income and population growth drive prices higher (price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline
economy and demography)
Page 16
Climate change scenario effects differ(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and
demography)
Minimum and maximum effect
from four climate
scenarios
Current situation and Future Challenges
The Way Forward
Options to increase production
Today’s hunger problems can be addressed with appropriate use of
current technologies, emphasizing agro-ecological practices (e.g.,
no/low till, IPM, INRM), coupled with decreased post-harvest losses
Small-scale farmers need access to the best seeds, financing and
access to markets
Advances in S&T are always a needed but cannot be fully utlilzed
without rural development, institutional and governance reform
Advanced biotechnologies (genomics) may be needed to address
future demands for increased productivity and emerging issues such
as climate change and new plant and animal pests – but the risks and
benefits must be fully understood
Producing more using existing knowledge
• The yield gap
• Best sustainability practice
• Invest in the skills base
– Revitalise extension
• Invest in economic and physical infrastructure
Build social capital for food production
Actual
PossibleWheat
Source: Bruinsma (2009)
Adaptation to Climate Change
• The response of agricultural, pastoral and forest systems to simultaneous changes in atmospheric and climatic parameters:• carbon dioxide -- are there saturation effects, if so at what concentration
level• mean temperature and its variability (day-night and summer-winter ratios)• mean precipitation and its variability• other factors, including tropospheric ozone, UV-B and acid deposition
• The impact of changes in climate and atmospheric composition on:• disturbance regimes, including fires and pest and disease outbreaks
• Adaptation options• planting times• crop selection• irrigation • fertilization • new cultivars -- the role of biotechnology, including transgenic crops –
temperature, drought, pest and salinity tolerance
A Robust Agricultural S&T Program
to produce, by region, the diversified array of crops, livestock, fish, forests, biomass (for energy) and commodities needed over the next 50 years in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner reduce post harvest losses increase productivity per ha through sustainable
intensification address water deficit problems, e.g., through improved
drought tolerant crops, irrigation technologies, etc improve the temperature tolerance of crops combat new or emerging agricultural pests or diseases address soil fertility and salinzation of soils reduce external and energy-intensive inputs improve the nutritional quality of food improve nutrient cycling improve food safety
Climate Change likely to increase the spread of animal diseases
• Ectoparasite infections
• Arthropod vector-borne diseases
• Diseases caused by anaerobic spore-
forming bacteria
• Avian diseases
• Liver flukes and parasites
Biotechnology
• Genomics is the basis of improved crop traits – classical plant breeding and
GM
• Potential to improve productivity, drought, temperature and pest tolerance
and enhanced nitrogen use efficiency
• Insertion of genes is continuing to cause concern for some consumers and
governments even though GM plants undergo extensive testing
• Health risks – little evidence, robust EU safety processes in place
• Environmental risks – need to understand gene transfer and manage
• Role of companies – some lack consumer trust
• Potential negative impact on poor farmers in developing countries – reliance on
large multi-nationals
Role of Genomics and GM
MaizeMaizeCC44
RiceRice(C(C33 C C44))
GenesGenes
Climate Change, ©JES
© IRRI© IRRI
Adaptation to Climate Change
Climate Change, ©JES
C4 and C3 comparison for current CO2 conditions. WUE
(transpiration) is water-use efficiency, RUE is radiation-use efficiency, PNUE is photosynthetic nitrogen-use effectiveness
Maize is C4 --- Rice is C3
WUE RUE PNUE g DW/kg H2O g DW/MJ mg DW s-1/gN
Zea Maize 2.9 a 3.3 b 1.6 d
Oryza Sativa 1.6 a,c 2.2 b 0.6 d
C4/C3 1.8 1.5 2.7
Current status of GM crops
• Two types of GM crop being grown on widespread basis: insect-resistant varieties and herbicide-tolerant varieties
• In limited range of crop species: soya (64%), maize(24%), cotton (43%) and oilseed rape (20%) - apart from cotton, main outlet is for animal feed
• Other GM traits being developed (e.g. disease-resistance, drought-tolerance, nitrogen efficiency)
• Main GM producers: USA, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, India, China, Paraguay and South Africa. Some limited cultivation of GM forage maize in a few EU countries
Basis for Policy
• Safety must be the top priority
• Evidence-based approach and case-by-case assessment
• Open to the potential benefits – therefore research, coupled with open and transparent field trials, is needed to assess the potential risks and benefits
• Support proportionate and enforceable GM labelling rules to facilitate consumer choice
• Need to develop measures to manage the coexistence of GM and non-GM crops to minimise unwanted GM cross-pollination
• Consumers will need to see real benefits before they are accepted – at least in Europe
Adaptation to Climate Variability
The agricultural and water resource sectors are vulnerable to natural climate variability, e.g., floods and droughts associated with ENSO events
Identify technologies, practices and policies that can reduce the vulnerability of sectors to natural climate variability and can increase resilience to long-term climate change incorporate modern scientific forecasts of ENSO events
into sector management decisions integrated multi-sector watershed management and
appropriate water pricing policieselimination of inappropriate agricultural subsidies
El-Nino
El-Nino conditions lead to floods and
droughts throughout the tropics and
sub-tropics
The climate is projected to become
more El-Nino like
Impact of El-Nino in the Northern Hemisphere Winter
Zimbabwe’s Rainfall Record: 1980-1993
Note the year to year variability and the long-term downward trend
Variability in Agricultural Production
Note the year to year variability and the long-term downward trend
Source: IRI (International Research Institute for Climate PredictionExperimental Climate Forecast Division
AKST Investments
Need to improve efficiency of investment in rural development
China India Thailand Vietnam Uganda
Ranking of Returns to Agricultural Production Agriculture R&D 1 1 1 1 1 Irrigation 5 4 5 4 Education 2 3 3 3 3 Roads 3 2 4 2 2 Telecommunications 4 Electricity 6 8 2 Health 7 4 Soil and Water Conservation 6 Anti-Poverty Programs 5
Ranking of Returns in Poverty Reduction Agriculture R&D 2 2 2 3 1 Irrigation 6 7 5 4 Education 1 3 4 1 3 Roads 3 1 3 2 2 Telecommunications 5 Electricity 4 8 1 Health 6 4 Soil and Water Conservation 5 Anti-Poverty Programs 7 4
Under-investment in agriculture and rural infrastructure
Agriculture and rural infrastructure’s share of public expenditures have declined significantly
EIS recognised three big challenges for the department
• LWEC and the
BBSRC-led food and
farming initiative
• John Beddington
initiative that brings
government
agencies, research
councils and private
sector together
Interdisciplinary working
Understanding and influencing
behaviours
Innovation
Climate Change Adaptation and
Mitigation
Sustainable food
Production
Enhance Environment and
Biodiversity
Support a Strong and Sustainable Green Economy
In Summary: Options for Action
Embed economic, environmental and social sustainability into agricultural
policies, practices and technologies
Address today’s hunger problems with appropriate use of current
technologies, emphasizing agro-ecological practices (e.g., no/low till, IPM
and INRM), coupled with decreased post-harvest losses
Advanced biotechnologies may be needed to address future demands for
increased productivity and emerging issues such as climate change and new
plant and animal pests – but the risks and benefits must be fully understood
Provide payments to the farmer for maintaining and enhancing ecosystem
services
In Summary: Options for Action
Reform international trade, e.g., eliminate OECD production subsidies,
eliminate tariff escalation on processed products, recognize the special
needs of the least developed countries through non-reciprocal market access
Increase public and private sector investment in research and development,
extension services, and weather and market information
Improve public-private-CSO involvement in AKST with accountability for
social and environmental outcomes
Build and reform AKST skill base (basic sciences, social, political and legal
knowledge) and innovation capacities of rural communities and consumers
Conclusions
• Food availability needs double in the next 25-50 years to alleviate hunger and poverty
• Global food security is achievable but business-as-usual policies, practices and technologies will not work
• Climate change poses challenges to the agricultural sector – reducing GHG emissions and adapting to climate change
• Innovation along the whole food chain, involving all relevant stakeholders, is critical
• The farmer must be in the middle – especially the small-scale farmer – participatory processes are critical
• Science and technology is critical – the risks and benefits of all technologies must be evaluated