Global Environmental Change

Changes in the biophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities

Land cover & soils

Atmospheric composition

Climate variability & means

Water availability & quality

For example changes in:

Nitrogen availability & cycling

Biodiversity

Sea currents & salinity

Sea level

Simulated maize yields: baseline and changes by 2055(from Jones & Thornton, CGIAR, 2001)

present 2055

™

To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of

global environmental change on food systems and to

assess the environmental and socioeconomic

consequences of adaptation responses.

GECAFS Goal

Food Provision

Provision = f (production, availability, access)

Production = f (yield, area)

Availability = f (production, distribution, storage)

Access = f (availability, socioeconomic potential [e.g. affordability], & physiological potential [e.g. nutritional quality])

• Understand how GEC will additionally affect food provision in different regional food systems. GECAFS Science Theme 1

• Determine how different food systems might be adapted to cope with both GEC and changing demands. GECAFS Science Theme 2

• Assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of such adaptations. GECAFS Science Theme 3

GECAFS Long-Term Aims

Global Environmental

Change

Food Provision

Theme 1Vulnerability and

Impacts

Theme 2Adaptations

AdaptedFood Provision

Theme 3Environmental

Feedbacks

Socioeconomic Change

Theme 3Socioeconomic

Feedbacks

GECAFS Science Themes

• Food Systems Research

Sub-continental scale

e.g. Subsistence & commercial arable (Indo-Gangetic Plain)

Import & subsistence arable + fishing (Caribbean)

• Conceptual and Methodological Research

Generic

e.g. Vulnerability concepts

Scenario development

Two types of GECAFS Projects

Food Systems Research Projects

Ensures a GEC science agenda that:

interacts effectively with the regional policy making process and thereby encourages more support for the regional science communities

attracts donor support from outside the “traditional” GEC funding community

Research being developed to:

(i) relate to regional development needs

(ii) have relevance to current and near-term issues, as well as to longer-term issues

Principal Criteria:

• Range of Food Systems• Range of GEC Issues

Other Criteria (alphabetically listed):

• Geographical balance of the portfolio of projects• Policy interest/mechanism at project scale• Potential donor interest• Potential links to IGBP, IHDP & WCRP Core Projects• Potential regional coordination/leadership• Relevance to regional development

Food Systems Research ProjectsSelection Criteria

• Subsistence & commercial arable (Indo-Gangetic Plain)water availability, climate change & variability, GHG emissions

• Import & subsistence arable + fishing (Caribbean)climate variability, sea-level rise, coastal zone degradation

• Commercial & subsistence arable + livestock (Southern Africa)climate variability, land degradation

• Income/livelihoods-based (Eastern Pacific coastal fisheries)ENSO/sea currents, marine biodiversity loss

Food Systems Research ProjectsInitial Set + Main GEC Issues

• Vulnerability ConceptsTo integrate concepts of vulnerability of social aspects of food systems with concepts from natural science to provide a more holistic approach to vulnerability studies.

• Scenario ConstructionTo determine how to construct the comprehensive scenarios needed for providing appropriate context for GECAFS food systems research.

• Decision Support Systems DevelopmentTo develop, evaluate and refine innovative decision support systems for use in GECAFS food systems research.

Conceptual & Methodological ResearchInitial Set

Population density in areas where the length of the growing period (LGP) is <90 days.

Based on Global Agro-ecological Zones (AEZ), Landscan2000 population density, and irrigation maps (from FAO, GIS-SDRN unpublished).

A robust framework for novel, interdisciplinary approaches to GEC research that examines vulnerability to impacts, adaptations and feedbacks.

A problem-oriented, policy-relevant approach which can bring together the GEC and Development agendas, and their donor communities.

A design for analyses at regional and sub-regional levels which will help develop effective policy to protect vulnerable sections of society.

A methodology which allows an analysis of trade-offs between managing resources for both food provision and environment.

GECAFS “Distinguishing Features”

How will climate variability and other aspects of GEC affect food systems and livelihoods dependent on pelagic, demersal and coastal fishing? [GECAFS Science Theme 1]

What management and policy strategies will best reduce the vulnerability of fisheries-based livelihoods to climate variability and increase employment opportunities? [GECAFS Science Theme 2]

What will be the consequences of alternative strategies for local and regional biodiversity, and for poverty alleviation in coastal communities? [GECAFS Science Theme 3]

Potential GECAFS questions forEastern Pacific Coastal Fisheries