Global Environment System Research Lab. NIMR/KMAGlobal Environment System Research Lab. NIMR/KMA...

Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges

13 -17 September, 2010

Hamburg

»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«

Sung Hyup YouGlobal Environment System Research Lab.

NIMR/KMA

High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Tide/Storm Surge

Forecasting System in Korea

High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Tide/Storm Surge

Forecasting System in Korea



Hamburg

Occurrence Frequency of Typhoon


MonthCase

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 total

A 25 13 22 44 63 102 226 332 291 224 146 71 1559

K 0 0 0 0 2 13 54 66 47 5 0 0 187

1954‐2009

A : Typhoon occurred in Northwestern Pacific OceanK : Typhoon effected on the Korean Peninsula



Hamburg

Typhoon Damages


Mean Sea Level

Tidal Elevation

Movement by Wind

DAM

Storm Surges



Hamburg

Typhoon Damages




Hamburg

Operational Ocean Forecasting System


RDAPS, KWRFSea Surface Wind & MSLP

Regional Wave Model (RWW3, 1/12°)

Regional Storm Surge Model(RTSM, 1/12°)

Coastal RegionSea Surface Wind Model

Tide Coeff. DB

Coastal Storm Surge Model(CTSM, 1/120°)

Coastal Wave Model(CWW3, 1/120°)

Tide Model

Bathymetry DBBathymetry DB

Logical Depth DB



Hamburg

RDAPS vs. KWRF


RDAPS(Regional Data Assimilation Prediction System)

KWRF(Korea Weather Research and Forecast)



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RDAPS vs. KWRF


RDAPS KWRF

Model MM5 WRF

Horizontal Resolution 30 km 10 km

Dimension 171 x 191 574 x 514

Time Steps 75 s 60 s

Forecast Time 12 hr FDDA + 78 hr 60 hr

Initial/Boundary Conditions GDAPS GDAPS

Vertical Layers 33 / 50 hPa (model top) 40 / 50 hPa (model top)

Explicit Moisture

Mixed Phase

(Water Vapor, cloud, Rain, Ice, Snow)

WSM6

(WRF Single-Moment 6-Class)

Cumulus scheme Kain-Fritch New Kain-Fritsch scheme

PBL scheme MRF scheme YSU scheme

Ground Temp 5-layer Soil Model Noah LSM (4-layer)

Radiation scheme Cloud RadiationRRTM (longwave) / Dudhia

scheme(shortwave)



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Sea Winds Verification


• Domain : 115°E~150°E, 20°N~52°N

• Comparison between QuikSCAT Data & RDAPS model data

Sea Surface WindVerification Area

QuikSCAT 24hEarth Coverage



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Sea Winds Vector

RDAPS QuikSCAT

Summer

Winter



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RTSM (Regional Tide/Storm Surge Model)

CRAY X1E

2-D POM model 1/12°Regional Storm Surge ModelConsidering tide, sea wind, pressureCalculating the height of Tidal elevation and storm surgeoperating from June 2006

NIMR/KMA Global Environmental System Research Lab.



Hamburg



RTSM(Reginal Tide/Storm surge Model)

Model 2-D Ocean Circulation Model(POM 2D)

Coordinate System Spherical Coordinate

Model Domain 115 °E-150 °E20 °N-52 °N

Horizontal Resolution 1/12 ° by 1/12 °(421 ×385)

ΔT 200 sec

Prediction Time 48 H (00,12UTC)

Initial Field hot start

Input Data RDAPS Sea Wind and Pressure 8 tidal constituents



Hamburg



RTSM(Reginal Tide/Storm surge Model)

Model 2-D Ocean Circulation Model(POM 2D)

Coordinate System Spherical Coordinate

Model Domain 115 °E-150 °E20 °N-52 °N

Horizontal Resolution 1/12 ° by 1/12 °(421 ×385)

ΔT 200 sec

Prediction Time 48 H (00,12UTC)

Initial Field hot start

Input Data RDAPS Sea Wind and Pressure 8 tidal constituents

00 UTC 12 UTC

48 H FCST 48 H FCST

48H FCST 48H FCST

12 H FCST – Initial First Guess

3 Hr Intv Wind, Pressure 3 Hr Intv Wind , Pressure

RDAPSKWRF

RDAPSKWRF

RTSM RTSM



Hamburg

Storm Surge Forecasting


Typhoon USAGI (2007)



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Storm Surge/Tide Forecasting



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Model Verification


Western coast Southern coast Eastern coastIncheon

Gunsan

Mokpo

Masan

Jeju

Wando

Busan

Mukho

Uleung

o Obs, - Mod



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Model Verification


SHANSHAN (0613) MANYI (0704) USAGI (0705) NARI (0711)

MATSA (0509) NABI (0514) KHANUN (0515) EWINIAR (0603) WUKONG (0610)



Hamburg

Model Verification


MATSA (0509) NABI (0514) KHANUN (0515) EWINIAR(0603) WUKONG (0610)

BIAS (cm) 3.54 -6.14 -12.06 6.92 0.79

RMSE (cm) 7.72 11.41 14.61 12.00 9.07

SHAN HAN (0613) MANYI (0704) USAGI (0705) NARI (0711) Avg.

BIAS (cm) -1.76 4.69 3.34 -7.99 3.86 (+)/- 6.99 (-)

RMSE (cm) 8.63 8.95 6.78 12.19 10.15

2005 2006 2007

Bias

RMSE



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CTSM (Costal Tide/Storm surges Model)


Model2-D Ocean Circulation Model

(POM 2D)

Coordinate System

Spherical Coordinate

Model Domain 6 coastal areas

Horizontal Resolution

1/120 ° by 1/120 °(361 ×241)

ΔT 60 sec

Input DataE,U,V from Regional Model

RDAPS Wind and Pressure

Regional Model

B.C.



Hamburg

CTSM (Costal Tide/Storm surges Model)


Coastal Model (1km Resolution)

Regional Model (8km)

Boundary Condition



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Typhoon Cases


USAGI (0705) KALMAEGI (0807)



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Typhoon Usagi (0705)


RDAPS KWRF

Sea Winds



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RDAPS KWRF

Mean Sea Level Pressure



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Typhoon Usagi (0705) - RTSM


RDAPS KWRF

Storm Surge



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Typhoon Usagi (0705) - CTSM


RDAPS KWRF



Hamburg





Hamburg

Typhoon Kalmaegi(0807)-RTSM


RDAPS KWRF

Storm Surge



Hamburg

Typhoon Kalmaegi(0807)-CTSM


RDAPS KWRF



Hamburg

Typhoon Kalmaegi(0807)




Hamburg

New Operational NWP model (2010)


UM-Regional• 12Km 38 L• 72 hour forecast• Twice daily (00/12UTC)

Disaster (2012)• 1.5km 70 L• 3DVAR• 12 hour forecast

UM-Global• 40Km 50L• 4DVAR• 252 hour forecast• Twice daily (00/12UTC)

CRAY Baker90,240 cores682.9 TFlops



Hamburg


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