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Global Energy TrendsGlobal Energy Trends,The Role of Renewable Energy

& Implications for Indonesia

Seminar & Workshop on Renewable Energy & Sustainable Development In NTT, Kupang, 8-9 June 2010

H h O th d UNSW & STTNASHugh Outhred, UNSW & STTNASEmail: [email protected]

http://www.ceem.unsw.edu.au/content/RenewableEnergyinIndonesia.cfm?ss=1http://www.ceem.unsw.edu.au/content/RenewableEnergyinIndonesia.cfm?ss 1

OutlineOutline

• Drivers for increasing use of renewable energy:– High & volatile fossil fuel prices, particularly for oil– Climate change emissions from fossil fuel combustion

• Renewable energy – current use & future potentialgy p– Solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, ocean, hydro

• Renewable energy engineering:Renewable energy engineering:– Solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, ocean, hydro

2Global energy trends, renewable energy & implications for Indonesia

“Founding an International Renewable Energy Agency”Agency ,

IRENA, 2009


“Founding an International Renewable Energy Agency”, g gy g yIRENA, 2009

Note: solar & wind energy are variable & non-storable energy fluxes


Solar radiation on a perpendicular plane

at the earth’s surface: Southern hemisphere

summer (top) & winter (bottom)

(ipcc)

Indonesian solar energy resource

17 5 MJ/m2/day ave


~ 17.5 MJ/m2/day ave

Solar PV production MW/yr (b d IEA d t )Solar PV production, MW/yr (based on IEA data)

China, Europe & Japan dominate PV production


PV cost reduced by increasing manufacturing scale (MW/yr)(First Solar, 2009)

$3.501,200 1,200 MW

$2.94

$2.50

$3.001,000 First Solar Manufacturing Capacity

First Solar Module Cost per Watt

$2.00

$2.50

600

800 716 MW

$1.59$1.40

$1.23 $1.08

$1.50

400

600

308 MW$0.87

PV companies are installing very large factories to drive

$0.50

$1.00

200∼100 MW

308 MWvery large factories to drive down production costs

$0.0002004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E

10 MW 25 MW

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Planned global PV production capacity (based on IEA data)

Little scope for new playersLittle scope for new players to start profitable businesses

2008 PV productionproduction 7,500 MW


Cumulative installed PV capacity (REN21 2009)Cumulative installed PV capacity (REN21, 2009)


A range of energy-efficient lighting solutions for poor countries (Philips, 2009)

Homes, communities, shops EducationOrientationp, , p

Uday Solar lanterns (Cfli)

Status:

Solar portable lantern(Led + cfli)

S

Solar Lighting System (led, multi light)

S

Led crank torch(led+dynamo)

Status: commercially

Solar Reading Light (led)

Status: in pilot and-Uday available (Ghana)-Uday mini: com. release

Q4 2009 (India-Africa)

Status: commercial release in Q4 2009

(Africa)

Status: in development -release in Q1 2010

(Africa)

Status: commercially available (Africa, India)

Status: in pilot and development


Some possibleSome possiblegrid-connected PV li tiPV applications

(T Key, IEEE Power & Energy Magazine,Energy Magazine,

May/June 2009, p 34)

Global energy trends, renewable energy & implications for Indonesia 11

Variability of PV productionPV production due to cloud

covercover (T Key, IEEE Power & Energy Magazine,

May/June 2009, p 34)

(Bebic et al, IEEE Power & Energy Magazine, May/JuneEnergy Magazine, May/June 2009, p 45)


Concentrating solar thermal electricity generation(installed capacity & projections (IPCC))(installed capacity & projections (IPCC))

USA & Spain dominateUSA & Spain dominate solar thermal generation


Solar thermal concentrators for electricity generation (www greenpeace org)electricity generation (www.greenpeace.org)

• Parabolic trough (~350MWe):M t t b t l ffi i– Most mature but low efficiency

• Central receiver (~10MWe):Hi h ffi i b t i l– High efficiency but pre-commercial

• Parabolic dish (<1MWe):High efficienc b t pre commercial– High efficiency but pre-commercial

• Tower (50MWe)Wind from temperature differential;– Wind from temperature differential; pre-commercial


Fresnel solar thermal electricity generationes e so a t e a e ect c ty ge e at o(www.ausra.com, 2008)

Lower efficiency than parabolic trough but mayparabolic trough but may

be more cost-effective


Wind power density

• Wind power is a non-storable energy fluxWind power is a non storable energy flux• Doubling the wind speed increases the

wind power density eight times• Doubling the turbine swept area only• Doubling the turbine swept area only

doubles the turbine power

(European Commission, 2005)


A 2MW wind turbine (www vestas com)A 2MW wind turbine (www.vestas.com)

Vestas V80• Rotor Diameter: 80 m• Speed revolution: 16.7 rpm

• Operational: 9 - 19 rpm• Number of blades: 3• Tower Hub height: 60 - 67 - 78 - 100 m

O ti l d t• Operational data • Cut-in wind speed: 4 m/s• Nominal wind speed: 15 m/s

Stop wind speed: 25 m/s• Stop wind speed: 25 m/s

• Generator Type: Asynchronous• Gearbox Type: Planet/parallel axles• Gearbox Type: Planet/parallel axles

• Control Type: Microprocessor; optional remote.Output regulation & optimisation via OptiSpeedTOutput regulation & optimisation via OptiSpeedT and OptiTip® pitch regulation.


Wind turbine design option: gearbox & variable speed induction generator

(www.hydro.com.au)( y )

Variable speed induction generatorSupplysystem

Inductiongenerator stator

Supply frequency ACVariable speed induction generator

IG with wound rotor

Slip frequencyinverter

pf correctioncapacitor


Wind turbine design option: direct-drive variable speed alternatorp

(www.enercon.de)

Variable speed alternator & inverter

Inverter SupplysystemRectifierAlternator

variable supply

DC

p

variablefrequency AC

supplyfrequency AC

Load bank


Wind generation in South Australia, Aug 08700.0

600.0

500.0

400.0

out g

ener

atio

n (M

W)

200.0

300.0

Sent

o

100.0

0.0

18/0

8

19/0

8

20/0

8

21/0

8

22/0

8

23/0

8

24/0

8

25/0

8

26/0

8

27/0

8

28/0

8

29/0

8

30/0

8

31/0

8

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/0

9

11/0

9

12/0

9

13/0

9

14/0

9

15/0

9

16/0

9

17/0

9

18/0

9

19/0

9

20/0

9


Pulau Karya in Pulau Seribu(2004)(2004)

4x 1000 WAn off-grid wind application in

C i ht @ i i id

4x 1000 W ppIndonesia

Copyright @ ripno.energin.id

Control system

Applications :• Lighting• Lighting • Computer• Water Pumping


Inverter 2500 W12Vdc to 220V acBattery Storage

Pathways for producing energy from biomass (IPCC SRREN)


Projected increase in global biofuel usej g

• Increase 7–9% pa to meet 4–7% of global roadIncrease 7 9% pa to meet 4 7% of global road transport fuel demand by 2030 (IEA WEO, 2006)

• Could meet 13% of global road transport fuel• Could meet 13% of global road transport fuel demand by 2050 (IEA ETP, 2006)U d l i t ti l fli t• Underlying concern – potential conflicts between:– Biofuels (ethanol & biodiesel)– Food production– Ecosystem services


Geothermal energy (PT Pertamina, 2009)gy ( )


Installed geothermal capacity, 2007


Countries with high share of geothermal electricity (2007) (GWh/yr & %)

Indonesia has largegeothermal resources yet to be developed


Hydro generation – historical use (TWh pa)y g ( p )Hydro is an important option for reducing climate emissions. Installed capacity may double by 2030Mi i & i h d i t t i I d iMini- & micro-hydro important in Indonesia


Indonesia has a well-established micro-hydro industry

X-flow Turbine T-14 D300head: 3 – 100 meterpower: 10 – 150 kW



PROFILE d t t biPROFILE product - turbine

31Global energy trends, renewable energy & implications for IndonesiaPeltric Turbine

head: 15 – 100 meterpower: 1 – 30 kW

Propeller S-Turbinehead: 2 – 13 meterpower: 10 - 150 kW

Pelton Turbinehead: 70 – 300 meterpower: 50 – 1000 kW

Conclusions

• Renewable energy may contribute to:R di t hi h f il f l i– Responding to high fossil fuel prices

– Reducing climate change emissionsF ili i i bl d l– Facilitating sustainable development

• To promote renewable energy in Indonesia:– Identify promising regional resources & applications– Develop understanding of renewable energy in policy

makers, engineers and the community– Undertake well-planned renewable energy projects– Develop domestic renewable energy industries & expertise


Hugh Outhred Bsc BE (Hons 1) PhDHugh Outhred Bsc, BE (Hons 1), PhD

Hugh Outhred is a Professorial Visiting Fellow at the University ofNew South Wales (UNSW), an Adjunct Professor at MurdochUniversity, Guru Besar Luar Biasa at STTNASJogjakarta, Indonesia and a Director of Ipen Pty Ltd, whichgj p yprovides advisory and educational services on energy, society andthe environment.Hugh retired in 2007 after a 35-year career at UNSW, mostrecently as Presiding Director, Centre for Energy andy g gyEnvironmental Markets and Head, Electrical Energy ResearchGroup, School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications.During his career, Hugh has been a Fulbright Senior Fellow at theUniversity of California Berkeley, a Board Member of the Australiany yCooperative Research Centre for Renewable Energy, an AssociateDirector of UNSW’s Centre for Photovoltaic Devices andSystems, a Member of CSIRO’s Energy Flagship AdvisoryCommittee, a Member of the National Electricity Tribunal and aMember of the New South Wales Licence Compliance Advisory

Email: [email protected]

Member of the New South Wales Licence Compliance AdvisoryBoard. He is a Lead Author for the IPCC Special Report onRenewable Energy & Climate Change Mitigation, to be published in2010.


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