Global energy mix in 2030 xxxx - lsta.lt pranesimai/Leupp-Peter... · Global energy mix in 2030...
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© ABB Group October 22, 2010 | Slide 1 Global energy mix in 2030 Cost-effective solutions to the global energy challenges Peter Leupp, head of ABB Power Systems division, Montreal, Sept. 14, 2010
Transcript of Global energy mix in 2030 xxxx - lsta.lt pranesimai/Leupp-Peter... · Global energy mix in 2030...
© ABB GroupOctober 22, 2010 | Slide 1
Global energy mix in 2030Cost-effective solutions to the globalenergy challenges
Peter Leupp, head of ABB Power Systems division, Montreal, Sept. 14, 2010
© ABB GroupOctober 22, 2010 | Slide 2
A lot can happen in 20 years…
§ Mobile communications forthe masses
1990
and 2010
© ABB GroupOctober 22, 2010 | Slide 3
What are the prevailing trends impacting energy?Growth in population, living standards, demand, CO2
100
120
140
160
180Electricity generation
Primary energy demand
CO2 emissions
World population
2007 2020 2030
All values rebased to 100Source: International Energy Agency, Global Insight
(1.7 x population growth)
(3x population growth)
© ABB GroupOctober 22, 2010 | Slide 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Financial constraints also here to stayNeed for cost-efficient solutions is paramount
Source: GlobalInsight, EIU
Oil price (Brent,annual average)
G7 governmentdebt, % of GDP
1995 2000 2010 2014
%$ forecast
© ABB GroupOctober 22, 2010 | Slide 5
Shaping the trends between now and 2030Cut link between growth, energy use and emissions
§ Reduce the correlationbetween economic growth
and energy use
Energy
efficiency
RenewablesCarbon capture (CCS)
Nuclear
§ Reduce the correlationbetween energy use and
emissions
© ABB GroupOctober 22, 2010 | Slide 6
25
35
Energy efficiency is more than 50% of solutionSo why isn’t it more widely pursued?
2007 20302020
CO2 (Gt)
57%
Energyefficiency
RenewablesBiofuelsNuclearCCS
Current trend
Source: IEA
Path required tocontain climate change
§ Barriers to energy efficiencyinclude:
§ Lack of information
§ Fragmentation
§ Apathy
§ Cheap energy (esp. power)
§ Cost of efficient equipment
§ Doubts technology willdeliver
§ Misaligned incentives
§ And…
57%
© ABB GroupOctober 22, 2010 | Slide 7
…You can’t be photographed with energy efficiency
© ABB GroupOctober 22, 2010 | Slide 8
0
0.1
0.2
The barriers are not impossible to overcomeJapan twice as efficient as US: Why?
Tonnes of oil equivalent (toe)
Primary energy used per $1,000 ofGDPSource: International Energy Agency
§ Support for R&D since1970
§ Mandatory targets andtaxation
§ Subsidies for purchaseof efficient equipment
§ Standards
§ Price of energy
§ Storage of electricity
§ Peer pressure
Efficiency drivers in Japan
Japan US
© ABB GroupOctober 22, 2010 | Slide 9
Information is crucialLearning to consider the total cost of ownership
§ 65% of total electricity at industrial sitesis consumed by electric motors
§ Motor purchasing price = 3-6 months ofits electricity consumption
Cost of ownership breakdown (in %)
2 Purchase &installation 4
1 Maintenance& reliability 22
97 Energy 74
LV motor MV / HV motor
© ABB GroupOctober 22, 2010 | Slide 10
The potential for electrical energy efficiencyLosses can be reduced by half
Power generation
More efficientfuel combustion
Transport
Efficient vessels
Primary energyextraction
Improvedwell
efficiency
Power T&D
Low line losses,substationefficiency
Industry
Improvedproductivity
Commercial andresidential
Buildingmanagement andhome automation
Limited efficiency with current installed baseHigher efficiency with state-of-the-art technology
20%
40-50%
© ABB GroupOctober 22, 2010 | Slide 11
Summary
§ Energy challenges: demand, environment, financial
§ These challenges pull in opposite directions
§ All available technologies must be deployed
§ Solution that best addresses challenges is energyefficiency:§ curbs demand without impacting end user
§ cuts emissions
§ saves money
§ Economies such as Japan show that barriers to capturingthe opportunities can be overcome
