BY TUGANAI BORINA TOASTMASTERS INTERNATIONAL ASTANA ALUMNI ASSOCIATION ASTANA.
GLOBAL ENERGY CHALLENGES: COULD WE FACE THEM? - Astana, 4-5 September 2008 Slav Slavov Regional...
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Transcript of GLOBAL ENERGY CHALLENGES: COULD WE FACE THEM? - Astana, 4-5 September 2008 Slav Slavov Regional...
GLOBAL ENERGY CHALLENGES: COULD WE FACE THEM?
- Astana, 4-5 September 2008
Slav Slavov
Regional Manager for Europe & Central Asia
WEC founded in 1923
all energies and global
non governmental
long term reflection
short term action
Rome Congress 2007
Montreal Congress 2010
WHAT IS WEC?
• ACCESSIBILITY-the extent to which people have access to modern and affordable energy;
• AVAILABILITY-reliability+security of energy supply systems once access has been achieved;
ACCEPTABILITY- the environmental acceptance of energy production, transportation and use.
WEC GLOBAL GOALS ARE:AAA
• Up-Down stream dialogue & cross-border investments
• Diversification of supply sources and routes• Increase share of potential domestic
sources• Stocks management & global gas market• Enhancing energy efficiency
FULLY FULLY
BALANCED BALANCED
AND AND
MUTUALLY REINFORCEDMUTUALLY REINFORCED
TripleTriple challenge challenge
Sustainability
• Renewable energy• Energy efficiency• Nuclear option where chosen• Emissions trading
Competitiveness • Timely provided investments• Interconnections (Trans-regional net works)
• New technology & cost reductionClean coalCarbon sequestrationAlternative fuelsEnergy efficiencyNuclear
Security of supply
• Delivering sustainability to energy sector should be a priority objective. It is achievable but…challenges
are many, and they must be tackle now and
urgently if sustainability is to be achieved in this
century;
• And, it requires alternative policies.
WEC MESSAGE
Why current policies are limited?
• Ineffective and short-sighted;
• Confusing and unfocused;
• Inadequate to face the global scale of the issue;
• Lead to more energy import dependence.
What priorities of alternative policies should be?• to restrain emission growth in energy & transport & develop
carbon- free initiatives;
• to ensure security by increasing share of alternative sources
and encourage diversification of current energy mix;
• to support technology development & deployment;
• Energy is and will remain one of the major global concerns
• Estimated 2050 world population about 9 Billion;
• Electricity Consumption is foreseen to triple to some 45,000 TWh/a;
• How to reduce emissions without compromising economic development.
Or shift to low C economy?
Study Background - Population and Background - Population and Energy Consumption GrowthEnergy Consumption Growth
IEA Scenario of energy growth for a sustainable future
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Worl
d P
rim
ary
En
erg
yS
ou
rces
(Gto
e)
6
6,5
7
7,5
8
8,5
9
Wo
rld
Po
pu
latio
n (
Bill
ion
s)
Other Renewables
Biomass
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Population
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Worl
d P
rim
ary
En
erg
yS
ou
rces
(Gto
e)
6
6,5
7
7,5
8
8,5
9
Wo
rld
Po
pu
latio
n (
Bill
ion
s)
Other Renewables
Biomass
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Population
Source: IEA report “Energy to 2050 – Scenario for a Sustainable Future (2003)”
IncreasingDependency
To Low Carbon FutureTo Low Carbon Future
Which way to take???Which way to take???
The present global energy dynamics are unsustainable.
Source Figure: 1990-20030: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 492, 493; 2050: IEA, Prospects for CO2 Capture and Storage, Paris 2004, p. 101, 109; source insert: 1990-2030: IEA, WEO 2006, p. 492, 512; 2050: WEC, Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond, Report 1995, appendix C, scenario B: share developing countries in world primary energy supplies
World fossil fuel supplies
and energy-related CO2 emissionsbusiness-as-usual base line
7 914
192026
40
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 2004 2030 2050
fossil fuels, btoe
CO2 emissions, Gt
CO2 emissionsfrom fossil fuel use = 60 % of all GHG
30 % 40 % 50 %: Dcs-overtake emissions from OECD; reaching 60-70% in 2050
Energy and Climate change challenge
• Electricity: 47%-largest ,but provides greatest reduction
leverage;
• Transport: 21%-Growing everywhere. Key challenge for
emissions reduction;
• Industry: 18%-Fast growth in developing countries; offset by
increasing efficiency everywhere;
• Buildings: 13%-Steady growth; wide variation in emissions
intensity.
Global CO2 Emission Scenarios
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Emissions GtCO2/yr
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EmissionsStabilization
Low CarbonEconomy
A
B
A – Business as usual; B – Roadmap to low carbon future
What WEC is suggesting?
• need to create a global carbon market with a fixed
global carbon value;
• need to set up global regulations for this market as
as well for emission trading;
• Common WEC-WTO efforts on energy +emission trading
rules beyond 2012.
• increasing role of RES in energy mix; (20% in Europe by 2020 ?)-very ambitious;
• further energy efficiency improvements;
• nuclear renaissance? A burning issue but attractive solution again climate change;
• Oil from non-traditional resources (oil sands…) (Canada forecasts some 3 Mb/d)
Other alternatives lead to improve energy mix and reduce
dependency
Question : would EI continue to fall down?
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
1973
The world energy intensitywas constant (set to 1,0)before the first oil shock
and declines after
WEC Study on Efficiency:Higher GDP for less energy
+0.2 %
- 0.9 %
- 0.5 %
- 1.7 %
- 6.2 %
- 1.1 %
- 1.4 %
- 0.4 %
+1.3 %
- 2.1 % +0.5 %
0.0 %
+0.2 %
- 0.9 %
- 0.5 %
- 1.7 %
- 6.2 %
- 1.1 %
- 1.4 %
- 0.4 %
+1.3 %
- 2.1 % +0.5 %
0.0 %
+0.2 %
- 0.9 %
- 0.5 %
- 1.7 %
- 6.2 %
- 1.1 %
- 1.4 %
- 0.4 %
+1.3 %
- 2.1 % +0.5 %
0.0 %
Since 1990, EI is declining by 1.5% /y. China accounts for 1/4 of the reduction in the world energy intensity.
Primary energy intensity, in toe/$95ppp
< 0.2
17
Large disparities by region in the energy intensities: a factor 3 between CIS,
2.5 for Middle East and Europe; OECD Asia, India and Latin America (close to Europe); North America, Other Asia and world average: about 30% above
Europe; China 40% above
0
1
2
3
CIS
Mid
dle
-East
Afr
ica
Ch
ina
No
rth
Am
eri
ca
Oth
er
Asia
Lati
n A
meri
ca
Ind
ia
OE
CD
Asia
Eu
rop
e
WO
RL
D
Eu
rop
e =
1
Primary energy intensities by world region (at purchasing power parities) (2006)
More than 50% of investment needs to 2030 of $22 trillion are in developing countries, 17% in China & another 6% in India alone
Cumulative Investment in Energy Supply Infrastructure, 2006-2030
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007 “Reference Scenario”
Gas19%
Coal3%
Electricity53%Oil
24%
Biofuels1%
Power generation
51%
49%
OtherRefining
73%
22%5%
Exploration and development
LNG chainTransmission and
distribution
55%
37%
8%
Mining
Shipping and ports10%
90%
$5.4 trillion $11.6 trillion
$4.2 trillion$0.6 trillion
Exploration and development
Transmission and distribution
Total investment = $21.9 trillion (in $2006)
What WEC is suggesting here?
• more pragmatism in policy implementation:e.g.
• to provide more transparent, predictable and
stable reg.frame (new coal thermal projects);
• to open cross-border investments and cooperation
between energy suppliers & consumers;
• to harmonise cross-border el. tariffs and develop
methods for defining a common price formation
(in case of deregulated regional markets)
How easy to do business in Central Asia• Starting business (number of days):
KZ-21; UZ-13; KG-21; TJ-21; Korea-17;
• Starting business (number of procedures):
KZ- 8; UZ- 7; KG- 8; TJ- 13; Korea- 10;
• Investor Protection Index (0-lowest; 10-highest):
KZ-5,7; UZ-4,3; KG-6,0; TJ-1,7; Korea-5,3;
• Enforcing contract (number of days)
KZ-230; UZ-195; KG-177; TJ-295; Korea-230; AFG-1642;
• Closing business (recovery rate, cents on $1):
KZ-23,4; UZ-18,7; KG-15,6; TJ-23,6; Korea-82; finally
• How easy to do business/2007 Report (among178 countries)
KZ-71; UZ-145; KG-88; TJ-153; Korea-30; Russia:106;
1. WEC-FT Conference on
Investing in Clean Energy Business
- London,16&17 September -
2. WEC High-Level Dialogue between
Caspian Suppliers & European Consumers including the Role of Transit Corridor Countries
- Istanbul, 17 October -
Two important WEC-events in
September and October