Global Emission

8/9/2019 Global Emission

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Global and Regional Emissions andMitigation Policies

(with Application of ERB model for India)

P.R. Shukla


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Top Down models

Energy Economy linkages Partial Equilibrium in energy markets through price

adjustments

Endogenous determination of prices

Feedback of prices on GDP Demand endogenously determinedSupply of energy, demographic parameters exogenously

specified


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ERB Model : Application for India

Disaggregation by fuel typeConventional oil, conventional gas, coal, nuclear power,

hydroelectric power, solar electric power

Global scale and regional detail

Nine Regions - US, OECD West, Japan-Australia-NewZealand, EE/FSU, Middle East, China and other SouthAsian countries, Latin America, Africa, and India

Long-term applicability : Terminal year 2095

Four modulesSupply, Demand, Energy balance, GHG emissions


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Overview: ERB

RegionalLabour

Forces

Regional

Labour

Productivities

RegionalGNP

Technical

Change

Regional

taxes and

tariffs

Regional

resource

constraints

Technology

and Cost

Char.

Regional

Energy

Demands

Regional

Prices

World

Prices

RegionalEnergy

Supplies

CO2Emissions

Regional

Population

GlobalSupplies

and

Demands


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Supply

Supply categoriesResource constrained exhaustible

conventional oil and gas

production rates follow logistic paths

Resource constrained renewable

hydro

production rates follow logistic paths

Backstopunconventional oil and gas, coal, solar and nuclearinfinitely elastic supply schedule

Supply by grades


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Demand

Demand depends on population, GNP, and prices

Regional prices of oil, gas and coal determined from

world prices, transportation cost and taxes or subsidies

Regional prices of secondary fuels from the price ofsix primary energy fuels

Cost and supply of hydro determined exogenously

Market share of five fuels determined by logitframework


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Demand

Energy service prices for Residential/Commercial,Transport and Industry sectors

Sectoral energy service demand is determined usingincome and price elasticities

Fuel shares, fuel rates, and technologicalimprovement determine fuel demand in end-usesectors

Fossil fuel demand for primary energy is sum of

demand from end-use sectors, electric utilities andsynfuel conversion from coal.


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Energy balances

Markets for nuclear, solar and hydro arecleared as identities

Energy market for oil, gas and coal are cleared

through price adjustments in an equilibriumframework

Excess demand in each of the markets asfunction of prices

Price elasticities obtained by numericalprocedure and used to revise the prices formarket clearance


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Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Carbon emissions determined by applying

carbon coefficients

Zero carbon release coefficients for nuclear,

solar and conservation


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Key parameters in Reference Case

Population

Annual growth rate for India: 1.1 % (1990-2050)

Labour productivity

Annual growth rate for India: 4 % (1990-2050) Rate of exogenous end-use energy efficiency

improvement

Annual growth rate for India: 2 % (1990-2050) Fossil fuel resource base Non-greenhouse environmental costs of fuels


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Intervention scenarios

Advance technologies Hydrogen fuel cells as alternative power source Low cost biomass source with 20 percent of biomass

available at $1.40 per GJ and 80 percent at $2.40 per GJ

by 2020 Exogenous global end-use energy intensity improvement

rate reaches 2 percent per year by 2050

Carbon Tax

$100 tax per tonne of carbon content in the fuels imposedin each region

Stabilisation of emissions Global carbon emissions restricted to 7850 TgC (550

ppmv) in the terminal year


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0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Year

TrillionDollars

US OECD West JANZ EE/FSUACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Year

TrillionDollars

US OECD West JANZ EE/FSUACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA

Regional GDP Reference Case


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0

5

10

15

20

25

BtC

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

US OECD W e

JANZ EE/FSU

ACENP MIDEAST

AFR LA

INDIA

Region 1990 2095

US 23 12

OECD West 17 7

JANZ 6 3

AFR 3 12

EE/FSU 27 12

LA 4 7

MIDEAST 3 4

ACENP 15 35India 3 10

Global Carbon emissions: Reference Case


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1370 EJ 123 EJ

Global Primary Energy Consumption:

Reference Case

US OECD West JANZ EE/FSU ACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

EJ

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 20950

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

EJ

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

EJ

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 20950

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

EJ

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

EJ

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 20950

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

EJ

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

EJ

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 20950

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

EJ

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095


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Global Primary Energy Use by Fuel Type:

Reference Case

0

400

800

1200

1600

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Year

Exajoules

OIL GAS COAL BIO HYDRO SOLAR NUCLR

0

400

800

1200

1600

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Year

Exajoules

OIL GAS COAL BIO HYDRO SOLAR NUCLR


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Price of traded fuels - IS92a

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

16

18

20

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Year

1985US$/GJ

OIL GAS COAL

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

16

18

20

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Year

1985US$/GJ

OIL GAS COAL


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Energy Intensity IS92a


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Global Primary Energy Consumption: Tax Cases

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

E

J

No tax $10 Tax $100 Tax $150 Tax

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

E

J

No tax $10 Tax $100 Tax $150 Tax


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Primary Energy Consumption in India : Tax Cases

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Year

Exa

jou

les

No Tax 10$ Tax 100$ Tax 150$ Tax


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Global Carbon Emissions Tax Cases

15000

20000

25000

Carb


22/302000

2500

3000

bo

n

Carbon Emissions in India: Tax Cases


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ERB Tax Cases - Global v/s India

Global IndiaTax Level Carbon Energy Carbon Energy

mitigation (%) reduction (%) mitigation (%) reduction (%)$10 5 2 4 2

$25 12 5 10 4

$50 24 10 19 7

$100 40 19 30 12

$150 49 26 35 20

Cumulative - 1990 to 2095


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Advance Technology

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2035 2065 2095

Year

Exajoules

Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2035 2065 2095

Year

Exajoules


0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2035 2065 2095

Year

Exajoules


0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2035 2065 2095

Year

Exajoules



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Stabilisation

0

50

100

150

2005 2035 2065 2095Year

Exa

joules


0

50

100

150

2005 2035 2065 2095Year

Exa

joules


0

50

100

150

2005 2035 2065 2095Year

Exa

joules


0

50

100

150

2005 2035 2065 2095Year

Exa

joules



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Carbon Emissions

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2005 2035 2065 2095

Year

Teragrams

Carbon

IS92c IS92e TECH TAX STAB

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2005 2035 2065 2095

Year

Teragrams

Carbon



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Methane Emissions

0

5

10

15

20

2005 2035 2065 2095

Year

Milliontonnes


0

5

10

15

20

2005 2035 2065 2095

Year

Milliontonnes



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N2O Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

2005 2035 2065 2095

Year

Thousand

tonnes


0

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100

150

200

2005 2035 2065 2095

Year

Thousand

tonnes



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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Year

Exajoules

IS92a IS92c IS92e Adv.Tech $100 Tax 550 ppm

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Year

Exajoules

IS92a IS92c IS92e Adv.Tech $100 Tax 550 ppm

Global Primary Energy Use - Scenarios

Global Emission

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