Global emission pathways towards 2°C target: Good practices for the preparation of INDCs

Global emission pathways towards 2°C targetGood practices for the preparation of INDCs Seminar on International Climate Negotiations

13-14, November 2014, Berlin

Dr. Niklas Höhne

[email protected]

www.newclimate.org

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.newclimate.org

About NewClimate Institute

Non-profit research institute founded Nov. 2014 by 7 former Ecofys colleagues

Offices in Berlin and Cologne (Germany)

Areas of expertise

Climate negotiations

Tracking clilmate action

Climate and development

Climate financing

Carbon market mechanisms

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Content

Global emission pathways towards 2°C

Good practice in preparation of INDCs

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Enhancing ambition in the major

emitting countries Technical background report on analysis of current and potential climate

policies

Lead Authors: Annemiek Admiraal (PBL), Michel den Elzen* (PBL), Hanna Fekete (Ecofys), Nicklas Forsell

(IIASA), Niklas Höhne (Ecofys), Anu Korosuo (IIASA), Mark Roelfsema (PBL), Thomas Day

(Ecofys), Heleen van Soest (PBL) [ORDER TBD]

Contributing Authors: Andries Hof (PBL), Michael Obersteiner (IIASA)

* Corresponding author: [email protected]

© Ecofys/PBL/IIASA 2014

DRAFT 16 October 2014 PLEASE DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE

Available soon

Country results

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Country results

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New target of the USA

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Source: Climateactiontracker.org

New target of China

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Aggregating pledges and action

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Content

Global emission pathways towards 2°C

Good practice in preparation of INDCs

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Intended Nationally Determined Contributions under the UNFCCCDiscussion paper

Niklas Höhne, Christian Ellermann and Lina Lihttp://www.ecofys.com/en/publication/intended-nationally-determined-contributions-under-the-unfccc/

Forthcoming:Process guide for INDCs

http://www.ecofys.com/en/publication/intended-nationally-determined-contributions-under-the-unfccc/

What types of pledges were presented?

Type Examples

Economy wide emission reduction targets

To base year: USA, EU, Japan

To BAU: Brazil, Mexico, Chile, South Korea

To GDP: China, India

Energy targets China, Peru

Policies Brazil, Argentina

Projects Ethiopia

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Frist inspirational goal, then national implementation

Type


Energy targets

Policies

Projects

Examples:• Norway (40%)• Japan (25%)• Costa Rica (carbon neutral)• Maldives (carbon neutral)• South Korea (30% below BAU)

Requirements• Ambitious global goal (2°C or phase out)• Strong national political leadership• Continued strong national implementation


National implementation (then national goal)

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Type


Energy targets

Policies

Projects

Examples:• Development of specific NAMAs

Requirements• Time for policy development• Knowing the options

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Process to derive an INDC

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Political decision regarding INDC

Prepare technical information

Identify co-benefits and mitigation

opportunities

Evaluate costs and support needs

Evaluate ambition

Package and present

contribution

Build leadership

Create efficient processes

Set up institutional arrangements

Engage stakeholders

Elements of a national contribution

Type


Energy targets

Policies

Projects

• National long term emissions goal• National short term emissions target

• Energy / sectoral targets• Details on highlight policies and projects

• Resource needs for their implementation• Intended provision of support

• Explanations on ambition and equity


Examples on possible details of contributions

ElementCountry with high

capability

Country with medium

capability

Country with low

capability

Inspirational national

long term emissions goal

Year of intended phase out of

GHG emissions

Long-term peak and decline

pathway or range-

National short term

emissions target

Precisely defined, economy

wide, multi-year target until

2025 and/or 2030

Indication of mitigation

ambition until 2025 and/or

2030 (below BAU, intensity,

range)

-

Energy / sectoral targets

National energy efficiency or

renewable targets

Targets related to land-use

and forestry


renewable targets

Targets related to land-use

and forestry


renewable targets, if existing

Highlight policies and

projects

Governance structures

Highlight policies / projects

with intended impacts

Governance structures

Highlight policies / projects

with intended impacts

Selection of a few, yet

ambitious policies and/or

projects

International support

needs for mitigation and

adaptation

-

Precise purpose and value of

support needed

differentiated from actions

without support

Order of magnitude of

support needed

Intended provision of

support for mitigation

and adaptation

Source, use and value of

intended support

Intended south-south

provision of support-

Explanations

Detailed explanation why this

contribution is an ambitious

and equitable contribution to

the global goal

Explanation why this

contribution is an ambitious

and equitable contribution to

the global goal

-

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Conclusions

Current emission reduction proposals and nationally implemented policies for 2020 are not yet sufficient for a 2°C pathway

First INDCs are being announced

Preparation of INDCs:Stakeholder process

More than one target

Explanation why this is a fair and ambitious contribution


Backup


Experience from the past on mitigation commitments

Diverse: Pledges are very diverse (economy wide targets to individual projects)

Ambiguous: Pledges often were ambiguous and had to be clarified

2°C: Some pledges are influenced ranges needed for 2°C

Japan -25%, Norway -40%, Mexico and South Korea 30% below BAU…

National: Some pledges are also primarily driven by national discussions

EU, USA, …

Unchangeable: Pledges once made did not change

No major economy has changed its pledge of 2009, although the gap is widely accepted

Even countries that will over-achieve their pledge (new circumstances or more information) do not change it


What types of pledges were presented?

Type Examples Characteristics


To base year: USA, EU, Japan Full flexibility where to reduce emissions

To BAU: Brazil, Mexico, Chile, South Korea

Full flexibility where to reduce emissionsCan factor in economic growthCreates a “moving target” if baseline changes

To GDP: China, India Full flexibility where to reduce emissionsAdaptive to changes in economic developmentEmission outcome uncertain

Energy targets China, Peru Closer to actual actions than emission targets

Policies Brazil, Argentina Directly under control of the government

Projects Ethiopia Very detailed in scope


Ways to assess mitigation contributions by countries

Comparison

To BAU

To effort sharing

To mitigation potential

Of decarbonisation indicators

To good practice policy package / policy menu


Comparison to BAU

BAU is counterfactual

BAU includes many different developments

Example Brazil36.1% to 38.9% below BAU in 2020


Comparison to effort sharing

Large range of effort sharing approaches, e.g. per capita, carbon budgets, equal costs, …


Comparison to potential

Large uncertaintiesAssumptions on base line?

Assumptions on cost elements?

Model used?

Source: Fekete et al. 2013. Climate change mitigation in emerging economies: From potentials to actions. http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/378/publikationen/cc_19_2013_vorabexemplar_fkz_3711_41_120_ueberarbeitet_12_12_13_.pdf


http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/378/publikationen/cc_19_2013_vorabexemplar_fkz_3711_41_120_ueberarbeitet_12_12_13_.pdf

Comparison to decarbonisation indicators

CO2/kWh

2010 2050

Pledge

Current policy

Required for 2°C

Global average

kWh/cap Pledge

Current policy

Required for 2°C

Global average

2010 2050

Current best practice

Current best practice

Intensity

Activity


Comparison to low carbon policy package

Possible approach1. Choose area of

intervention

2. Identify BP incentives and barriers

3. Develop benchmarks

4. Rate policy against benchmark


Policy package (2) – example building sector- energy efficiency

Indicator for incentives Benchmark for evaluating against best practice

• Incentive (regulation, support and information) for use of efficient appliances, including air conditioning

4: 2-3% per year0: No incentiveMethod: fraction of appliance covered and stringency of the standards (Japanese Top runner or ecodesigndirective). If air conditioning is a major consumer, then buidling standards need to be considered)

• Efficiency standards for new buildings for all types of buildings

4: Zero emissions buildings by 20142: Zero emissions buildings by 20200: No trajectory to zero energy buildings

• Incentive for high retrofit rates for all types of existing buildings (for complete retrofit, i.e. full building envelope & upgrade supply system)

4: > 3% per year (average 2010-2020) and >2% afterwards0: < 1 % per year

• Policy for efficiency improvement for other than heating fuel uses (cooking, hot water use)

4: > 3% per year (average 2010-2020) and >2% afterwards0: < 1 % per year

• Level of energy and/or CO2 taxes (applicable to electricity fuel consumption in buildings)

4: tax is > 100% of energy price0: no tax


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Policy package (cont.) – final overview

Source: Climate Action Tracker country assessment example

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Comparison More simple

>>>>>> More complex

To BAU

To effort sharing

To mitigation potential

Of decarbonisation indicators


Complexity of analysis

Downscale regional BAU

Bottom up development of BAU

Use IPCC effort sharing ranges

Own effort sharing model

Categorization of measures

Bottom up modelling of MACC

Use of existing literature

Development of country specific indicators

Application of existing policy menues

Dev. of counrty spec. policy menues


Suitable approaches for different types of commitments

Business as usual (BAU)

Effort sharing

Mitigation potential

Decarboni-sationindicators

Good practice policy package

Inspirational national long term emissions goal

National short term emissions target

Energy / sectoraltargets

Highlight policies and projects

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Legend

Primary

Secondary

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Ways to assess contributions

Comparison Considerations

To BAU • BAU is counterfactual

To effort sharing • Wide rage of possible outcomes

To mitigation potential • Costs compared to a BAU, which is counterfactual

Of decarbonisation indicators • Forward looking, no BAU necessary• Indicators close to actions, specially on sectoral

level


• Forward looking, no BAU necessary• How is the package defined?


Comparison to effort sharing


Global emission pathways towards 2°C target: Good practices for the preparation of INDCs

Environment

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