Global Economic Outlook Presentation FINAL
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Transcript of Global Economic Outlook Presentation FINAL
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Global Economic OutlookMay/June 2012
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Agenda
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Introduction
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Introduction
Global EconomicOutlook 2012
The global economy is on a narrow ath o! slow and !ragile reco"ery
Oil and commodity rices remain high and will continue to ut !urther
ressure on the global economy
#outh $!rica%s robust !inancial institutions and moderate !iscal and
e&ternal debt absorbed the imact o! the global downturn to a large
e&tent'
(owe"er) the country needs to address its structural challenges
including) unemloyment) education and ine*uality in order to be aglobal economic layer
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Introduction
$ signi!icant decline in acti"ity across the economy) lasting longer than a !ew
months' It is "isible in industrial roduction) emloyment) real income and
wholesale+retail trade' The technical indicator o! a recession is two
consecuti"e *uarters o! negati"e economic growth as measured by a
country,s gross domestic roduct -G.
e!ers to the market "alue o! all o!!icially recognied !inal goods and
ser"ices roduced within a country in a gi"en eriod'
Is a sustained) long+term downturn in economic acti"ity in one or more
economies' It is a more se"ere downturn than a recession) which is seen by
some economists as art o! the modern business cycle'
The recurring and !luctuating le"els o! economic acti"ity that an economye&eriences o"er a long eriod o! time' The !i"e stages o! the business
cycle are growth -e&ansion) eak) recession -contraction) trough and
reco"ery' $t one time) business cycles were thought to be e&tremely regular)
with redictable durations) but today they are widely belie"ed to be irregular)
"arying in !re*uency) magnitude and duration'
Recession:
Gross domesticproduct (GDP)
Depression:
Business cycle:
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#ession 13 Global outlook
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Global outlook
Source: Economic Intelligence Unit, March 2012
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Global outlook
Source: Economic Intelligence Unit, March 2012
The global economy is on a narrow ath o! slow and !ragilereco"ery' Many countries are struggling with a massi"e debtburden and high unemloyment ersisting to bog down theireconomies and hamering growth'
Oil and commodity rices remain high and will continue to ut!urther ressure on the global economy
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Global outlook
According to the Economist Intelligence Units (EIU) March economic outlook, world GDPis exected to grow !" #$%& on a market exchange rates !asis in #'%#, slowing downmarkedl" rom the reious two "ears$
Source: Economic Intelligence Unit, March 2012
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Changes in global economic risks
North American region
Asia pacific region
Middle East region
African regionatin America ! the"ari##ean region
Greater Russia region
Europe region
Source: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050, World Energy Council !alues in mn tonnes"
Production (Mntonnes)
Consumption (Mntonnes)
Compounded annualgrowth rateconsumption
*egend
0.9%
1.8%
1.2%
0.8%
-2.%
-1.2%
-0.9%
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Energy intensity
Economic growth is closely related to growth in
energy consumtion because the more energy is
used) the higher the economic growth' (owe"er) itis ossible to decoule energy consumtion and
economic growth to some e&tent' More e!!icient
use o! energy may entail economic growth and a
reduction in energy use'
Economist Intelligence Unit, #PM$ calculations
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Cumulative investment in energy infrastructure require 2011 20!"
Natural Gas $ %&' trillion
Bio$uels $ %*'+ trillion"oal $ %,', trillion
Po-er$ %,.'& trillion
World Energy %utloo& 2011, 2010 real terms"
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Global outlook
The economy grew by 1'45 in
2011) but grew by 2'65 in 78o! 2011'
The in!lation rate !or 2011
doubled to 9'25 !rom 1':5 in
2010'
Growth rosects !or 71 2012
are around 2 to 2'25 on the
back o! a gain in consumer
con!idence%s subse*uent retail
sales and manu!acturing'
ersistently high
unemloyment and risks o!
downturns in markets abroadwill kee the ;E.%s olicy rate
at "ery low le"els until e"en as
late as 2018'
/nited 0tates
Euroean economic growth
slowed during 2011 to 1'
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Global outlook
Emerging Mar2ets
The =I> countries are
recognised as ha"ing "ery
large economies and
oulations) with unra"elled
growth otential in !oreseeable
years'
The =railian economy
e&erienced raid e&ansion inthe last decade with strong
economic growth
ussia e&erienced strong
economic growth o"er the ast
!ew years) but manu!acturing
and !oreign in"estment slowed
down since the globaldownturn'
BR3"0
The ?e&t 11 consist o! #outh@orea) Iran) Me&ico) Turkey)
hiliines) Indonesia) Egyt)
?igeria) akistan) Aietnam and
=angladesh'
These economies are smaller
in sie than the =I>
countries) but with its largeoulation sie and growth
rates o! abo"e the global
a"erage) romises !a"ourable
oortunities !or !uture
in"estment and market growth'
4he Ne5t ,,
;ears surrounding an
economic downturn ha"e lead
EM central banks to either cut
their interest rates or ostone
monetary tightening during
2011'
Market e&ectations are that
EM countries will outer!ormde"eloed countries between
2019 + 201:) as interest rate
di!!erentials will !a"our
in"estment into these EM
countries o"er that o! the
OE>. economies'
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#ession 23 $!rica
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#here are $e no$%
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#here are $e no$% &ub &aharan Africa
$ngola
B$ngola%s increased oil outut
contributes about 6
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#here are $e no$% &ub &aharan Africa
Ghana
B Ghana remains oneo! the world%s biggestgold roducers andother e&orts include
cocoa) natural gas)timber anddiamonds'
Moambi*ue
B Moambi*ue is aresource richcountry) roducing!ood) be"erages)
chemicals)aluminium)etroleum roducts
B In!rastructurede"eloment)esecially electricity)is necessary toincrease outut and
create morein"estmentoortunities'
?igeria
B ?igeria%s "astoulation sie andwell de"eloed!inancial and
communicationssectors continue toattract mobile honenetworks and bankslooking to caitaliseon the large amounto! unbankedindi"iduals'
Dambia
B Dambia is a largeroducer androcessor o! coerand this hard
commodity is itsmain e&ort) withagriculture being animortant illar o! theeconomy'
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#here are $e no$%
6**, $ 6*,* 6*,, 7 6*, : orecast
2001
+2010
2011+201hina
'ongo
4'0
Aietnam
4'2
$ngola
11'1
wanda
4':
>ambodia
4'4
?igeria6'
@aakhstan
6'2
Ethioia
6'8
Myanmar
10'9
>hina
10'had
4'
Moambi*ue
4'
Ethioia
6'1Moambi*u
e
4'4
Ghana
4'0
Source: IM' World Economic %utloo&, 'e(ruary 2012
Most of the fastest de8eloping economies are in the 0u#$ 0aharan region
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#here are $e no$%' (orth Africa
$lgeria
B$lgeria isrenowned !or itsoil and gasreser"es) andthese resourcesha"e dominatedits e&ortindustry and
continue tocontributegreatly towardsthe country%sG.
Egyt
B Egyte&erienced aeriod o!acceleratedgrowth !ollowingre!orms tostimulatein"estment
during the last!i"e years
B The economy isbased onagriculture aswell as e&ortso! their naturalresources
including oil)coal) natural gasand hydroower'
Fibya
B Fibya is slowlyreco"ering !roma criling ci"ilwar and likesome o! itsneighbouringcountries
Morocco
B Morocco is theworld%s largeste&orter o!hoshorus andmining)construction andmanu!acturingmake u ust
o"er hal! o! thecountry%s G.'
B The high imortcost o! oil willcontinue to utressure on theMoroccaneconomy as the
rice continue toremain high'
B Hnemloymentand in!lation isrelati"ely low
Tunisia
B The country hasa di"ersi!iedeconomy)ranging !rommining)agriculture)manu!acturingand
etrochemicalsto tourism whichwas hea"ilyimeded onduring there"olt'
B In!lation remainsrelati"ely
moderate)B (igh le"els o!unemloyment)eseciallyamong its youth'
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#here are $e going%' )uture trends
4he future
*04he num#er of people per
s9uare 2ilometre (populationdensity) #y 6** (/N)
10+
ld age dependency ratio of,*; #y 6** (/N)
,1-. billionAfrica
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#here are $e going%' )uture trends
BIn!rastructure e&ansion andnetwork growth are areas o!
de"eloment in the !uture)seeding u nationalrocesses and connecting$!rica to the rest o! the world'
B$!rica currently sends %=
#illion per annum onin!rastructure) when it shouldbe sending about %&+#illion in order to catch uwith other de"eloingregions in the ne&t ten years'
B$!rica is a net imorter o!!ood and unable to meetlocal demand'
Bith :05 o! the world%sunculti"ated arable landand low cro yields $!rica
has enormous otential !ora green re"olutionK similarto those seen in $sia and=rail
BThe imact o! climatechange could be se"ere)seeing that :5 o! $!rica%sagriculture is e&tremelyrain!all deendent
In!rastructuree&ansion
>hallenges$!rica !aces
>limatechange
;ood imort
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#ession 93 #outh $!rica
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&A and the global economy
0A lin2s -ith glo#al economy andglo#al do-nturn
0A as part of the BR3"0Glo#al factors affecting 0A
economy
0A
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#here are $e no$%
Europe>s financial crisis
$!!ects worldeconomic
growth
>ontinues toway down!inancial
markets andhamer global
growth
0outh Africa
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#here are $e no$%
A challenging en8ironment
$ctual Estimate ;orecast
2010 2011 2012 2019 2018
;inal household consumtion 9'4 8' 9': 9'6 8'2
;inal go"ernment consumtion 8' 8': 8'1 8'1 8'1
Gross !i&ed caital !ormation +1': 8'9 8'1 8'< :
Gross domestic e&enditure 8'2 8'1 9' 8'2 8'
E&orts 8'< : 2' I in!lation 8'9 < :'2
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#here are $e no$%
0outh African competiti8eness relati8e to peers
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#here are $e no$%
0outh African competiti8eness relati8e to peers
Ine!!ecti"e
Go"ernment
bureaucracy
Inade*uate
Educated
work!orce
estricted
Fabour
regulations
>orrution >rime The!t
#$
roblematic
!actors
!or doing
businessPositi8eimpact
on)D3onclusion
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Conclusion
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7 L $
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A
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