Global Economic Outlook June 2009. Good News.
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Global Economic Global Economic Outlook Outlook June 2009 June 2009
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Transcript of Global Economic Outlook June 2009. Good News.
Global Economic Global Economic OutlookOutlook
June 2009June 2009
Good NewsGood News
Credit Standards Getting Easier
Foreign Ownership of Stocks and Bonds
10-yr Treasury Yields
ConcernsConcerns
Sources of Economic Growth
Percent of Long-term Unemployed
Unemployment Rate and NAIRU
HousingHousing
State & LocalState & Local
GovernmentsGovernments
S&L Budget Gaps
State and Local Government Drag
S&L Purchases as % of GDP
Sales Tax Collections
State and Local Property Taxes
StimulusStimulus
No AmmunitionNo Ammunition
Budget Deficits % of GDP
Real Federal Funds Rate
Inflation Expectations
OOOOOOoooutpOutput Gap
Taylor’s Rule
Actual
Federal Funds Rate
Change Policy
•Language
•Interest Rate
•Sell MBS
- 1
- 0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2008 2009 2010 2011
U.S. Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year)
Forecast
European Economic Growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
European Bank’s Exposure to Greece Billions of US dollars
Share of U.S. Exports
OutlookOutlookBought TimeBought Time
Vs.Vs.
Deficits RemainDeficits Remain
Debt Maturity Schedule
Who Should Leave Euro?
•PIGS
•Germany
Euro Breakup?Euro Breakup?Political UnionPolitical Union
Vs.Vs.
Economic UnionEconomic Union
Global Debt Global Debt ProblemProblem
Solve Debt Solve Debt Problem?Problem?GrowthDefaultInflation
Debt to GDPDebt to GDPOver 90%: 1.7%Over 90%: 1.7%
Vs.Vs.
Below 30%: 3.5%Below 30%: 3.5%
Over 100%Over 100%
Stunt GrowthStunt Growth
- 5
- 4
- 3
- 2
- 1
0
1
2
2008 2009 2010 2011
Euro Economic Growth (% change Year over Year)
Forecast
Asia Economic Growth
Asia:V-Shaped
•Trade Rebound
•Inventory Building
•Capital Inflows
•Strong Domestic Demand
•Weak Financial Sys.
Asian Dependence on Europe
Asian Exports to AE and China
China’s Infrastructure Spending
China’s Bank Lending
China’s Property Prices
China’s Inflation
Value of Chinese Yuan
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
2008 2009 2010 2011
China’s Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year)
Forecast
Global Global ImbalanceImbalance
Rebalancing Global Trade
StocksStocks
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