Dairy Foods Milk Production 2009-2013 District Dairy Milk Production Test Bank 2009-2013.
GLOBAL DAIRY SNAPSHOT - Amazon S3€¦ · dry. Australia’s milk production is expected to grow 2...
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GLOBAL DAIRY SNAPSHOT ph +64 6 323 6393 email [email protected] web agrihq.co.nz OCTOBER 27, 2017 AGRIHQ WMP PRICE (US$/TONNE) NZX WMP FUTURES NOVEMBER 2017 (US$/TONNE) NZD:USD EUR:USD BALTIC DRY INDEX 3050 2940 0.684 1.165 1555 Milk production data out yesterday shows that Oceania production is faltering this season. Total NZ milk production was down 1.3% year on year in September, on a milksolids basis. This puts season to date production down 0.1%, as the falls experienced in August and September have outweighed the excellent results for winter milk production. Production in June and July was boosted by extra winter milk contracts being on offer, but since then extremely wet conditions have affected milk production. is is the third season in a row in which September production has fallen behind the previous year. Milk production is also expected to fall behind last year in October. NZ has only started to dry out over the past few weeks. Most areas now have more normal soil moisture levels, though there are still pockets where soil moisture is at field capacity, notably in Waikato – our largest milk producing region. Summer production should benefit from the high soil moisture levels and is expected to be up on last season. But the exceptional results of last autumn are unlikely to be matched in 2018, so NZ production will likely track behind last year at the tail end of the season. As a result, AgriHQ now expects no growth in milk production for the 2017- 18 season. Our previous forecast was for 1.5% growth. Australian production also fell in September, albeit by a relatively small amount of 0.6%. August figures were also revised and are a little better than previously reported at 0.9% up year on year. is puts Australia’s production at up 1% season to date. Victoria fell behind in September, as much of the state was quite dry. Australia’s milk production is expected to grow 2 – 3% this season. e NZ milk production figures should be supporting whole milk powder (WMP) prices, but this is yet to play out in the market, and in fact WMP looks to be coming down further. Prices for WMP futures trading on the NZX Dairy Derivatives market dropped below US$3000/t this week. e November contract settled at US$2940/t yesterday. All contracts for the rest of the season are currently priced between US$2900/t and US$3000/t. Some contracts have traded up between US$10/t and US$20/t this morning, but do still remain below US$3000/t. WMP prices have also eased in Europe over the past few weeks. European prices are higher than NZ’s, averaging US$3257/t this week, though this is down about US$250/t since the beginning of the month. There has been little urgency from buyers to secure WMP. We are at the peak of NZ’s season so there isn’t really a shortage of product right now, but product will start to become tighter going forward. China has been the only country that has been regularly buying WMP, but China will be buying now to land product while the lower tariff rate applies from 1 January. China’s WMP imports rocketed up even further in September, having imported 242% more product than in September 2016. e majority of the increase was NZ product, but China also imported more WMP from Australia, the US and Europe. European butter prices are coming down as fast as they went up. European butter is averaging US$6610/t this week, down about US$600/t from a week ago. e EEX market expects butter prices to come back further, reaching US$51715/t by January. Prices for butter futures on the NZX Derivatives market show a similar trend. The November butter futures contract is priced at US$5680/t, while the January contract is at US$5200/t. Oceania production falters high lights China’s imports jump, for another month WMP futures below US$3000/t Currency movements 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 NZD:USD AUD:USD EUR:USD AgriHQ Dairy Commodity Prices – US$/tonne fob This week Last week Four weeks ago Last year 27-Oct-17 20-Oct-17 Change 29-Sep-17 Change 28-Oct-16 Change Butter 5800 5800 ↔ 0% 6000 ↓ -3% 3980 ↑ 46% Skim Milk Powder 1800 1800 ↔ 0% 1975 ↓ -9% 2300 ↓ -22% Whole Milk Powder 3050 3050 ↔ 0% 3100 ↓ -2% 2800 ↑ 9% Cheddar Cheese 4000 4050 ↓ -1% 4000 ↔ 0% 3450 ↑ 16% Casein - Acid 7000 7000 ↔ 0% 7200 ↓ -3% 7200 ↓ -3% Anhydrous Milkfat 6800 6800 ↔ 0% 6800 ↔ 0% 5100 ↑ 33% Weighted Average 3220 3220 ↔ 0% 3310 ↓ -3% 2930 ↑ 10% Amy Castleton
Transcript of GLOBAL DAIRY SNAPSHOT - Amazon S3€¦ · dry. Australia’s milk production is expected to grow 2...
GLOBAL DAIRYSNAPSHOT
ph +64 6 323 6393 email [email protected] web agrihq.co.nz
OctOber 27, 2017
AGRIHQ WMP PRICE (US$/TONNE)
NZX WMP FUTURES NOVEMBER 2017 (US$/TONNE)
NZD:USD EUR:USD BALTIC DRY INDEX
3050 2940 0.684 1.165 1555
Milk production data out yesterday shows that Oceania production is faltering this season.
Total NZ milk production was down 1.3% year on year in September, on a milksolids basis. This puts season to date production down 0.1%, as the falls experienced in August and September have outweighed the excellent results for winter milk production. Production in June and July was boosted by extra winter milk contracts being on offer, but since then extremely wet conditions have affected milk production.
This is the third season in a row in which September production has fallen behind the previous year. Milk production is also expected to fall behind last year in October. NZ has only started to dry out over the past few weeks. Most areas now have more normal soil moisture levels, though there are still pockets where soil moisture is at field capacity, notably in Waikato – our largest milk producing region. Summer production should benefit from the high soil moisture levels and is expected to be up on last season. But the exceptional results of last autumn are unlikely to be matched in 2018, so NZ production will likely track behind last year at the tail end of the season. As a result, AgriHQ now expects
no growth in milk production for the 2017-18 season. Our previous forecast was for 1.5% growth.
Australian production also fell in September, albeit by a relatively small amount of 0.6%. August figures were also revised and are a little better than previously reported at 0.9% up year on year. This puts Australia’s production at up 1% season to date. Victoria fell behind in September, as much of the state was quite dry. Australia’s milk production is expected to grow 2 – 3% this season.
The NZ milk production figures should be supporting whole milk powder (WMP) prices, but this is yet to play out in the market, and in fact WMP looks to be coming down further. Prices for WMP futures trading on the NZX Dairy Derivatives market dropped below US$3000/t this week. The November contract settled at US$2940/t yesterday. All contracts for the rest of the season are currently priced between US$2900/t and US$3000/t. Some contracts have traded up between US$10/t and US$20/t this morning, but do still remain below US$3000/t.
WMP prices have also eased in Europe over the past few weeks. European prices are higher than NZ’s, averaging US$3257/t this week, though this is down about
US$250/t since the beginning of the month. There has been little urgency from
buyers to secure WMP. We are at the peak of NZ’s season so there isn’t really a shortage of product right now, but product will start to become tighter going forward. China has been the only country that has been regularly buying WMP, but China will be buying now to land product while the lower tariff rate applies from 1 January.
China’s WMP imports rocketed up even further in September, having imported 242% more product than in September 2016. The majority of the increase was NZ product, but China also imported more WMP from Australia, the US and Europe.
European butter prices are coming down as fast as they went up. European butter is averaging US$6610/t this week, down about US$600/t from a week ago. The EEX market expects butter prices to come back further, reaching US$51715/t by January. Prices for butter futures on the NZX Derivatives market show a similar trend. The November butter futures contract is priced at US$5680/t, while the January contract is at US$5200/t.
Oceania production falters highlights
China’s imports jump, for another month
WMP futures below US$3000/t
Currency movements
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17
NZD:USD AUD:USDEUR:USD
AgriHQ Dairy Commodity Prices – US$/tonne fobThis week Last week Four weeks ago Last year
27-Oct-17 20-Oct-17 Change 29-Sep-17 Change 28-Oct-16 Change
Butter 5800 5800 ↔ 0% 6000 ↓ -3% 3980 ↑ 46%
Skim Milk Powder 1800 1800 ↔ 0% 1975 ↓ -9% 2300 ↓ -22%
Whole Milk Powder 3050 3050 ↔ 0% 3100 ↓ -2% 2800 ↑ 9%
Cheddar Cheese 4000 4050 ↓ -1% 4000 ↔ 0% 3450 ↑ 16%
Casein - Acid 7000 7000 ↔ 0% 7200 ↓ -3% 7200 ↓ -3%
Anhydrous Milkfat 6800 6800 ↔ 0% 6800 ↔ 0% 5100 ↑ 33%
Weighted Average 3220 3220 ↔ 0% 3310 ↓ -3% 2930 ↑ 10%
Amy Castleton
ph +64 6 323 6393 email [email protected] web agrihq.co.nz
GLOBAL DAIRY SNAPSHOT October 27, 2017 PAGe 2
Dairy derivatives markets
Global Dairy Trade
NZX EEX CME
WMP Futures 26-Oct-17 19-Oct-17 Change Open Interest 26-Oct-17 Change 26-Oct-17 Change
Nov-17 2940 3060 ↓ -3.9% 6921
Dec-17 2935 3030 ↓ -3.1% 7144
Jan-18 2920 3025 ↓ -3.5% 5583
Feb-18 2920 3040 ↓ -3.9% 4265
Mar-18 2925 3040 ↓ -3.8% 2865
Apr-18 2925 3025 ↓ -3.3% 1390
SMP/NFDM Futures
Nov-17 1750 1810 ↓ -3.3% 1820 1738 -8.2% 1653 -4.2%
Dec-17 1730 1790 ↓ -3.4% 1281 1741 -7.5% 1653 -3.9%
Jan-18 1760 1770 ↓ -0.6% 1090 1772 -8.1% 1675 -3.1%
Feb-18 1750 1760 ↓ -0.6% 681 1776 -9.1% 1694 -3.7%
Mar-18 1750 1760 ↓ -0.6% 619 1778 -9.9% 1741 -3.1%
Apr-18 1775 1775 ↔ 0.0% 95 1797 -7.0% 1769 -3.0%
AMF Futures
Nov-17 6500 6575 ↓ -1.1% 133
Dec-17 6350 6480 ↓ -2.0% 173
Jan-18 6100 6275 ↓ -2.8% 264
Feb-18 6000 6200 ↓ -3.2% 210
Mar-18 5980 6125 ↓ -2.4% 222
Apr-18 5900 6160 ↓ -4.2% 127
Butter futures
Nov-17 5680 5680 ↔ 0.0% 395 5915 -15.9% 5090 -5.2%
Dec-17 5250 5250 ↔ 0.0% 552 5649 -15.6% 5154 -3.8%
Jan-18 5200 5200 ↔ 0.0% 465 5175 -16.8% 5159 -3.3%
Feb-18 5150 5150 ↔ 0.0% 300 5205 -12.0% 5159 -3.5%
Mar-18 5150 5150 ↔ 0.0% 166 5205 -12.0% 5191 -2.7%
Apr-18 5150 5150 ↔ 0.0% 68 4850 -15.0% 5181 -3.1%
Milk price futures
Sep-18 6.40 6.59 ↓ -2.9% 3994
Sep-19 6.25 6.25 ↔ 0.0% 10
Sep-20 6.35 6.35 ↔ 0.0% 0
Fonterra offer volumes - tonnes
At auction on Tuesday October 17, 2017
Contract period 1 2 3 4 5 6
Shipping period Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
AMF 115 900 710 550 275 0
bMP 0 0 0 0 0 0
bUtter 165 945 730 565 190 0
cHeDDAr 80 450 450 400 100 0
reN cAS 50 250 150 100 50 0
SMP-NZ 250 3500 2600 1375 760 0
SMP-AU 0 0 0 0 0 0
WMP 2500 9730 4700 3250 1300 0
tOtAL
GlobalDairyTrade - US$ per tonne
results from auction - tuesday October 17, 2017
Contract period 1 2 3 4 5
Shipping month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
AMF 7540 7053 6710 6648 6555
bMP 0 0 0 0 0
bUtter 6140 6075 5384 5385 5335
cHeDDAr 4200 4110 4079 4100 4175
LActOSe 0 0 0 0 0
reN cAS 5739 5544 5507 5700 6029
SMP 1860 1849 1752 1749 1758
WMP 3083 3071 2936 2923 2935
GDt Price Index 1039
ph +64 6 323 6393 email [email protected] web agrihq.co.nz
GLOBAL DAIRY SNAPSHOT October 27, 2017 PAGe 3
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1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18
WMP
2200
4200
6200
8200
Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17
Butter
GDT NZX Futures EU Quotations EEX CME (historic) CME
1500
2000
2500
3000
Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18
SMP
3000
3400
3800
4200
4600
Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18
Cheddar
3200
4200
5200
6200
7200
Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18
AMF
2300
4300
6300
8300
Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18
Butter
500
750
1000
1250
Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18
Whey
