Global Crude Trade Study 2018

Leading consultancy for the oil & gas marketswww.fgenergy.com

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Leading consultancy for the oil & gas markets www.fgenergy.com

FGE’s Global Crude Trade Study

In a world of rising US production and OPEC output cuts, we assess how the world’s crude slate will change over the coming years.

Global crude trade is going through a rapid transformation. US crude exports have taken the world by storm in the past 12 months. The US has already broken into the world’s top 10 crude exporters and will soon move into the top five. As production in the US tight oil sector continues to grow, terminal operators in the US Gulf Coast have been expanding export capabilities to meet growing export demand.

As a result, global seaborne trade is ramping up, with projections of crude tonne miles showing sustained growth over the next decade.

Whilst light sweet crudes dominate growth in the short term, the world is being presented with a changing crude slate; one that is getting lighter and sweeter by the day.

FGE’s latest “Global Crude Trade Study 2018” identifies and examines the trends in global crude production by addressing the production outlook for over 400 crude streams across the globe vs. crude demand across all regions. In addition, this study also identifies the likely changes in global crude trade by region, and analyses the impact on global seaborne crude trade, tonne miles, and crude tanker demand. Finally, we assess the outlook of global crude quality and the availability of crude oil by API and sulphur content.

Key Features of This Study

• 400 crude streams assessed and modelled across the world, identifying API and sulphur content, trends in global crude quality and availability of certain grades.

• Over 80 crude routes assessed and forecast out to 2030 across the world to establish historic and projected tonne miles for crude.

• Regional crude balances derived from our detailed analysis of crude and condensate demand in FGE’s Annual World Refining Outlook coupled with our detailed supply analysis.

• Historic and future crude trade by region, identifying pressure points and outlets for the changing shape of global crude supply and demand.

• Detailed review of US export infrastructure in Texas.

North America Net Regional Crude Imports

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

kb/d

Europe

Asia

FSU

North Africa

Africa

Latin America

Middle East

Crude/CondensateDeficit

Global Crude Quality

1.16

1.18

1.20

1.22

1.24

1.26

1.28

32.0

32.2

32.4

32.6

32.8

33.0

33.2

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Sulp

hur

(%)

API

Global API Global Sulphur Content (RHA)

Global Seaborne Crude Trade

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

33,000

35,000

37,000

39,000

kb/d

The liberalisation of US crude exports at the end of 2015 has had a huge impact on global crude trade. Global seaborne crude trade accelerated in 2016 and 2017, and further growth is expected over the next decade.

Accelerated growth from the US will drive global API higher and sulphur content down over the next three years. An increase in the “Call on OPEC Crude” post-2020 will see API levels plateau and sulphur content increase.

As US tight oil and Canadian oil sands supply increases, North American crude balances will trend towards neutrality. However, US refiners will continue to seek medium sour barrels from Latin America and the Middle East, forcing light sweet crudes to Europe and Asia.

Overview

Leading consultancy for the oil & gas marketswww.fgenergy.com

FGE’s Global Crude Trade Study

Crude Qualities

Heavy Medium

Light Condensate

Deliverables

PDF copy of the report (PowerPoint layout). Extensive supplementary excel data sets.

An interactive session with FGE consultants, either in FGE’s London office or via WebEx/video conferencing facilities (available with full price package only).

This Study Can Add Value To

National Oil Companies Markets/Commercial Analysts

Oil Majors Refiners

Oil Producers Research Managers

Crude and Product Traders Petroleum Economists and Planners

Storage Operators Shippers/Brokers

Further Information

If you are interested in obtaining further information on this study, or would like to order the Global Crude Trade Study 2018, please contact FGE’s sales team. Discounts available to FGE clients and previous purchasers of the study.

FGE LondonTel: +44 (0) 20 7726 9570 Email: marketing@fgenergy.com

FGE SingaporeTel: +65 6222 0045