Global Construction Outlook Divergences in the world economy and construction markets Scott...

Global Construction OutlookDivergences in the world economy and construction markets

Scott Hazelton, Managing Director

IHS

© 2015 IHS 3

A gradual acceleration in the global economy

• World real GDP growth will pick up from 2.6% in 2015 to 3.3% in 2016.

• Consumer spending and homebuilding will lead a US acceleration.

• Recoveries in the Eurozone and Japan will gain momentum, aided by monetary stimulus, currency depreciation, and pent-up demand.

• China’s growth will be restrained by imbalances in credit, equity, housing, and industrial markets.

• Several emerging markets are in recession this year—Russia, Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil.

• Growth paths in emerging markets will depend on structural reforms that raise productivity and allocate capital more efficiently.

© 2015 IHS 4

The “Great Divergence”

• Over the past four years, global real GDP growth has been remarkably stable, between 2.5% and 3.0%.

• The composition of growth has changed fundamentally, however, with a gradual acceleration among the advanced economies and a sharp deceleration in the emerging world.

• Four trends have driven this divergence:

• Debt and deleveraging

• The plunge in prices of oil and other commodities

• Central banks moving on different paths

• The rise of the US dollar and the fall in other currencies

© 2015 IHS 5

NAFTA Other Americas

Western Europe

Emerging Europe

Mideast-N. Africa

Sub-Saha-

ran Africa

Japan Other Asia-

Pacific

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-21

An

nu

al

pe

rce

nt

ch

an

ge

Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) and Sub-Saharan Africa will achieve the fastest growth in real GDP

Real GDP

Source: IHS © 2015 IHS

© 2015 IHS 6

Supply growth restrains the recovery in oil prices

• Several forces are putting downward pressure on oil prices:• Record OPEC and Russian production• High inventories in the United States and Europe • Unsold oil in the Atlantic basin• Signs of increasing Libyan output

• Current OPEC production is 31.6 million barrels per day (MMb/d), its highest level since summer 2008, when Brent topped USD140/barrel.

• An agreement on Iran’s nuclear program will enable Iran to export about 0.5 MMb/d more in 2016.

• Global demand growth will pick up from 0.7 MMb/d in 2014 to 1.3 MMb/d in 2015, but this is insufficient to balance the market.

• Slower growth in China is the major downside risk to oil demand.

© 2015 IHS 7

Crude oil prices will gradually recover

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20250

25

50

75

100

125

150

Current US dollars 2014 US dollars

Do

lla

rs/b

arr

el

7

Price of Dated Brent crude oil


© 2015 IHS 8

The dollar’s real exchange value has reached a 12-year high against major currencies

Real trade-weighted dollar index

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 20200.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Major trading partners Other important trading partners

Ind

ex

, 2

00

9 =

1.0


© 2015 IHS 9

Exchange rates per US dollar

Quarterly averages

Canadian dollar

Japanese yen

Euro

Chinese renminbi

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 20164

5

6

7

8

9

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 201640

60

80

100

120

140

Source: IHS © 2015 IHS Source: IHS © 2015 IHS

Source: IHS © 2015 IHS Source: IHS © 2015 IHS

© 2015 IHS

The five year outlook shows improving growth with particular strength in the APAC and MEA regions

Real construction growth rates, CAGR 2014-2019, %

Less than 0%0% to 2%2% to 5%Greater than 5%

© 2015 IHS

Globally, all segments of construction will enjoy annual growth in the 3%-4% range over the next five years

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Residential Building Infrastructure Total

AP

EE

S. Am.

MEA

N. Am.

WE

World

Five year construction outlook(2010 US dollars, CAGR 2014-19, %)


© 2015 IHS

The most rapid growth comes from Asia, and MEA

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 500

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Global Median

Kenya

Senegal

Pakistan

Qatar

India

Sri Lanka

BangladeshCameroon

Vietnam

Nigeria

Egypt

China

IndonesiaUnited Arab Emirates

Morocco

Fast growing markets - total constructionBubble size: total construction spending, 2015, billions of 2010 US$

5 Year Construction Risk

Sp

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0 U

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CA

GR

201

4-19

(%

)

© 2015 IHS

• The US expansion has regained momentum this spring after adverse weather and an inventory correction in the first quarter. Homebuilding will rise through 2016 as supply catches up with demand.

• Exports and fixed investment will lead Mexico’s acceleration. Consumer spending growth will pick up in response to income gains.

• Canada’s growth has been restrained by sluggish capital spending. Exports will lead a gradual pick up in growth in 2015-16.

North American growth will pick up, lead by the U.S. residential market

13

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%

United States

Canada

Mexico

North America

World

North American Construction Spending(Percent change from a year earlier)

2017

2016

2015

© 2015 IHS

• Employment growth has re-established household formation while the overhang of foreclosed properties has been absorbed. Financing for builders remains an issue, but the demand is there as reflected by rising home prices.

• Canada has actively slowed its housing market to avoid a potential bubble. A flat economy and weak demographics complete the picture.

• Large Mexican homebuilders overextended themselves with land purchases and lack credit to take on major new developments. Smaller builders have picked up the slack.

Housing will have a sustained recovery, particularly in multi-family construction

14

5.2%

1.3%

1.5%

4.0%

3.3%

United States

Canada

Mexico

North America

World

Residential Construction Spending CAGR 2014-19

© 2015 IHS

• U.S. employment has surpassed its pre-recession peak, suggesting that vacant space has been put back into use. The new construction share of investment is increasing.

• Industrial construction will slow with weak energy prices. Hotel construction is strong, but retail is languishing. Growth in office and commercial is front-loaded.

• Institutional spending will be handicapped by U.S. budget concerns. Health care spending is set to improve, but composition will evolve from hospitals to other care centers. Education construction will remain weak due to poor household formation.

North American non-residential markets will follow housing into strong recovery

15

3.5%

1.6%

3.8%

3.5%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

Institutional

Commerical

Office

Industrial

NonResidential Construction Spending CAGR 2014-19

© 2015 IHS

• U.S. fiscal situation remains mired with lack of compromise in Washington. State and local revenues are improving but cannot offset federal slack. Projects across the nation (estimated at over $1.5 billion) have been pulled from bid, delayed, or cancelled as a result of the uncertainty involved with these short-term Highway Bill extensions.

• New residential and commercial construction will contribute some demand for water/sewer installations and modest street construction.

• Mexico’s administration has improved its infrastructure spending and opening investment in its energy sector will create opportunities not only in energy projects, but also in the broader infrastructure that is supported by national energy revenues.

North American infrastructure does not fare as well

16

-0.5%

2.2%

4.8%

1.0%

4.1%

United States

Canada

Mexico

North America

World

Infrastructure Construction Spending CAGR 2014-19

© 2015 IHS 17

South America: Deteriorating investment climates

• The regional economy has stalled and will see limited growth in 2016.

• Falling commodity prices are hurting export income.

• Brazil is back in recession, with industrial production in a sharp decline and both unemployment and inflation rising.

• In Argentina, high inflation, fragile public finances, foreign-exchange controls, and import barriers are obstacles to growth.

• Venezuela faces a long and deep recession with falling oil revenues, product shortages, hyperinflation, and rising debt-servicing costs.

• Resource development will support growth in Colombia and Peru.

• The region’s long-term challenges include inadequate infrastructure, restrictive business environments, and income inequality.

© 2015 IHS 18

Brazil Argentina Colombia Venezuela Chile Peru-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-21

An

nu

al

pe

rce

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ch

an

ge

Real GDP growth in South America

Real GDP


© 2015 IHS 19

Venezuela

Bolivia

Argentina

Brazil

Uruguay

Panama

Chile

Mexico

Peru

Colombia

Canada

United States

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175

Ease of doing business varies across the Americas

2015 rank out of 189 countries

Source: World Bank Group

© 2015 IHS 20

South America’s growth held back by Venezuela and Brazil

• South America’s investment climate is varied.

• Growth in the region is slowing as with Venezuela and Argentina mired in recession and Brazil on the edge of recession.

• Inflation and poor public policy suggests that even when Brazil emerges from recession, the recovery will be weak. Misconduct at Petrobas has added to the anemia.

• The long term challenges include inadequate infrastructure, restrictive business environments and income inequality.

3.1%

-1.0%

2.4%

4.2%

2.3%

0.3%

3.4%

1.6%

3.7%

Rest of Region*

Venezuela

Chile

Colombia

Argentina

Brazil

Panama

Latin America

World

CAGR 2014-19

* Rest of Region includes Bolivia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Panama, and Uruguay

© 2015 IHS

Latin America: Structural Comparison

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

Total Residential Buildings Infrastructure

2015

2016

2017

Latin America: Construction spending (real, % change y/y)

Source: IHS

Institutional

Commercial

Office

Industrial

2.6%

1.8%

3.0%

1.0%

Nonresidential structures (CAGR 2014-19)

© 2015 IHS

South and Central America: Risk

22

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Global Median

Brazil

Colombia

Argentina

Venezuela

Chile

Peru

Ecuador

Panama

Uruguay

Costa Rica

Bolivia

Honduras

Latin America - total constructionBubble size: total construction spending, 2015, billions of 2010 US$

5 Year construction risk

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CA

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4-19

(%

)

© 2015 IHS 23

Western Europe’s economic growth is strengthening

• The Eurozone economy is slowly gaining momentum, led by an acceleration in consumer spending.

• Investment will strengthen as 2015 progresses, helped by rising business confidence, export growth, and easing credit conditions.

• The European Central Bank is expected to continue its quantitative easing through September 2016.

• The United Kingdom, Ireland, Sweden, Germany, and Spain will see healthy economic growth.

• In its third bailout agreement, Greece will receive new lending of EUR86 billion. While the near-term risk of a Eurozone exit has diminished, the five-year probability remains close to 50%.

© 2015 IHS 24

Germany United Kingdom

France Italy Spain-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-21

An

nu

al

pe

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nt

ch

an

ge

Real GDP growth in Western Europe

Real GDP


© 2015 IHS 25

Western Europe has begun to recover and will gain momentum

• Western Europe’s slow recovery will gain traction with favorable exchange rates and resolution of the Greek ‘crisis’.

• Spain and Ireland have seen dramatic turnarounds, and German and Nordic manufacturing sectors are performing well. Italy and Portugal remain concerns.

• Growth strengthens as fiscal conditions improve, credit conditions ease, pent-up demand is released, and exports accelerate.

2.1%

0.5%

2.7%

3.0%

1.5%

3.9%

2.4%

3.7%

Rest of Region*

Italy

Spain

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Western Europe

World

CAGR 2014-19

© 2015 IHS 26

Western Europe: Structure type segmentation

2.1%

0.2%

3.1%

2.6%

1.9%

4.7%

2.5%

3.3%

Rest of Region*

Italy

Spain

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Western Europe

World


1.9%

0.8%

2.5%

3.7%

1.2%

3.6%

2.4%

3.7%

Rest of Region*

Italy

Spain

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Western Europe

World

NonResidential Structures Construction Spending CAGR 2014-19

© 2015 IHS 27

Western Europe losing uniformity in growth versus risk profile

5 10 15 20 25 30-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Global Median

Germany

United Kingdom

France

Italy

Spain

Netherlands

Belgium

Turkey

Norway

SwitzerlandAustria

Sweden

Finland

Denmark

Ireland

Portugal

Greece

Western Europe - Total ConstructionBubble Size: Total Construction Spending, 2014, Billions of 2010 US$


Sp

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0 U

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CA

GR

201

4-19

(%

)

Western Europe - total constructionBubble size: total construction spending, 2015, billions of 2010 US$


© 2015 IHS

Eastern Europe: Overview

• Real total construction spending in Eastern Europe declined 2.0% in 2014. Residential construction increased 2.5% while nonresidential construction declined by 3.3%. Total construction spending is expected to post a 3.9% loss in 2015, followed by a decline of 0.4% in 2016.

• The Russian economy is faltering amid slack investment activity, falling oil prices, high interest rates, strong consumer price inflation, and virtual isolation from external financing in Western capital markets.

• Domestic demand will continue to boost Polish GDP in 2015, thanks to an improving labor market, record-low interest rates, and disinflation.

• The combination of deep political crisis within Ukraine and tense relations with its key trading partner and energy supplier, Russia, is taking a heavy toll on industrial output and exports, private and government consumption, and fixed investments.

© 2015 IHS

Investment is rising thanks to EU funds, looser fiscal policy

Bulgaria Czech Republic

Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Turkey-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0Gross fixed investment growth

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-2020

Per

cen

t

© 2015 IHS

Outside Turkey most countries are facing population declines, but rising urbanization should trigger growth in housing demand

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0Urbanization rate (%)

Turkey Bulgaria Hungary

Czech Republic Poland Slovakia

Romania

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Total population, compound annual growth rate (%)

2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20

© 2015 IHS

Eastern Europe: Residential construction outlook

Bulgaria

Romania

Russia

Hungary

Ukraine

Czech Republic

Poland

Slovakia

Eastern Europe

World

1.6%

3.9%

-0.5%

3.5%

-6.5%

3.7%

2.3%

2.1%

0.9%

3.3%


© 2015 IHS

Eastern Europe: Non-res structural construction outlook

Bulgaria

Romania

Russia

Hungary

Ukraine

Czech Republic

Poland

Slovakia

Eastern Europe

World

3.9%

2.1%

-2.3%

3.7%

-6.3%

1.6%

3.1%

2.3%

0.2%

3.7%

Nonresidential Structure Construction CAGR 2014-19

Institutional

Commercial

Office

Industrial

-0.9%

-0.3%

1.1%

0.6%

CAGR 2014-19

© 2015 IHS

Eastern Europe: Infrastructure construction outlook

Bulgaria

Romania

Russia

Hungary

Ukraine

Czech Republic

Poland

Slovakia

Eastern Europe

World

4.8%

3.3%

-0.6%

2.9%

-1.3%

2.2%

2.8%

4.1%

1.2%

4.1%

Infrastructure Construction CAGR 2014-19

© 2015 IHS 34

Eastern Europe: Risk

10 20 30 40 50 60 70-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Russia

Poland

Czech Republic

Romania

Slovakia

Hungary

Ukraine

Bulgaria

Eastern Europe - total constructionBubble size: total construction spending, 2015 billions of 2010 US$


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CA

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4-19

(%

)

© 2015 IHS 35

Asia-Pacific will lead all regions in growth

• The Asia-Pacific region is a beneficiary of the decline in oil prices. China, Japan, India, and South Korea are major net importers of oil.

• Weakness in prices of minerals and other commodities will, however, adversely affect Indonesia, Australia, and Malaysia.

• China’s fixed investment is decelerating as the economy rebalances, slowing overall economic growth.

• India’s economic growth is reviving and foreign investment is returning.

• Indonesia’s growth is stabilizing near 5%; capital inflows are critical to financing the country’s significant infrastructure needs.

• The region’s outlook for consumer spending is bright, thanks to robust income growth and deepening financial markets.

© 2015 IHS 36

IndiaCambodiaIndonesia

PhilippinesChina

VietnamJapan

ThailandTaiwan

MalaysiaSouth Korea

Hong KongSingapore

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Ease of doing business varies widely across Asia

2015 rank out of 189 countries

Source: World Bank Group

© 2015 IHS 37

China India Australia South Korea Indonesia Taiwan0

2

4

6

8

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-21

An

nu

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ch

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ge

Real GDP growth in Asia-Pacific

Real GDP


© 2015 IHS 38

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 20280

5

10

15

20

25

Real GDP Industrial production

Pe

rce

nt

ch

an

ge

China’s economic growth will downshift in the long run

Real GDP and industrial production


© 2015 IHS

China’s visible hand: infrastructure continues to make gains over real estate

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Real estate Infrastructure

Share of completed Chinese fixed-asset investment

Source: IHS

Per

cen

t

Notes: 12-month moving average

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Total Real estate Infrastructure

Fixed-asset investment growth in key areas

Source: IHS

Per

cen

t ch

ang

e ye

ar a

go

Notes: Non-cumulative

© 2015 IHS

China’s residential sales see growth in June 2015, but construction remains moribund

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Completions Under construction Starts Sold

Residential floor space indicators

Source: NBSNotes: Floor space under construction is for all floor space; residential counts for about 90%.

Per

cen

t ch

ang

e ye

ar a

go

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Land area under developmentLand area purchasedClosing price of land

Land development indicators

Source: NBS

Per

cen

t ch

ang

e ye

ar a

go

© 2015 IHS 41

India is outpacing China in economic growth

• Real GDP expanded 7.5% y/y in the January–March quarter, led by gains in private consumption and fixed investment. Exports, imports, and public consumption posted declines.

• Industrial output growth remains uneven and volatile.

• Consumer price inflation rose to an eight-month high of 5.4% y/y in June, led by rising food prices.

• With price pressures returning, the Reserve Bank of India is likely to keep monetary policy on hold in the remainder of 2015.

• Automotive, construction, and infrastructure sectors will lead growth.

• Policy reforms will slowly move forward. Much remains to be done to open markets, upgrade infrastructure, and raise productivity.

© 2015 IHS

Asia Pacific: Construction Overview

• Real total construction spending in Asia Pacific increased 5.7% in 2014. Residential construction increased 4.3% while nonresidential construction increased by 6.4%. Total construction spending is expected to post a 4.5% gain in 2015, followed by a gain of 4.8% in 2016.

• Japanese housing starts are likely to remain weak over the near term, even though they have bottomed out following a drop-off of front-loaded demand as a result of the consumption tax increase in April 2014.

• In India the announcements of new investment intentions witnessed a remarkable surge of 80% over the previous year, spurred by positive post-election sentiment and the government’s ongoing efforts to improve the business environment and cut red tape.

• While policymakers are working to rein in investor activity in the Australian housing market, residential construction keeps speeding up, mitigating the fall in infrastructure and structures.

© 2015 IHS

Asia Pacific: Construction spending by segment

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

Total

Residential

Buildings

Infrastructure

2015

2016

2017

Asia Pacific: construction spending (real % change y/y)

© 2015 IHS 44

Asia-Pacific: Residential outlook

3.5%

2.6%

2.3%

6.7%

0.7%

4.0%

3.8%

3.3%

Rest of Region*

Australia

South Korea

India

Japan

China

Asia-Pacific

World


© 2015 IHS 45

Asia-Pacific: Nonresidential structures outlook

5.3%

1.7%

2.6%

8.2%

3.8%

4.9%

5.0%

3.7%

Rest of Region*

Australia

South Korea

India

Japan

China

Asia-Pacific

World

NonResidential Structures Construction Spending CAGR 2014-19

© 2015 IHS 46

Asia-Pacific: Infrastructure outlook

5.1%

1.1%

2.7%

11.3%

3.3%

8.1%

6.0%

4.1%

Rest of Region*

Australia

South Korea

India

Japan

China

Asia-Pacific

World

Infrastructure Construction Spending CAGR 2014-19

© 2015 IHS

Asia Pacific: Opportunity vs. risk

Global Median

ChinaJapan

India

Indonesia

Australia

Korea

Taiwan

Malaysia

Thailand

New Zealand

PhilippinesSingapore

Bangladesh

Hong Kong

Vietnam

Sri Lanka

Pakistan

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Asia Pacific - total constructionBubble size: total construction spending, 2015 billions of 2010 US$


Sp

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10 U

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CA

GR

201

4-1

9 (%

)

© 2015 IHS 48

The Middle East and North Africa

• The drop in oil prices, regional political instability, and war with the Islamic State are restraining economic growth.

• Lower oil prices are hurting Iran, Kuwait, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Libya, but helping Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia.

• Whereas Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE have strong reserves, the finances of Iran, Libya, and Algeria are strained.

• The nuclear agreement and likely lifting of sanctions in 2016 will lead to an upward revision in the forecast of Iran’s economic growth.

• Egypt’s economy is recovering, but political and security risks remain.

• Addressing job growth, economic diversification, and competitiveness will be critical to regional stability in the long run.

© 2015 IHS 49

Sub-Saharan Africa will sustain rapid growth

• Falling commodity export revenues are restraining growth in 2015.

• Lower oil prices are helping South Africa and Zambia, but hurting Nigeria, Angola, and Mozambique.

• Expanding domestic markets, income gains, and regional integration will support long-term economic growth.

• Macroeconomic management is improving substantially, poverty is declining, and foreign direct investment is rising.

• Poor infrastructure (especially power generation), political instability, and corruption remain obstacles to economic development.

• With large fiscal and current-account deficits and a challenging business environment, South Africa is vulnerable to capital flight.

© 2015 IHS

Middle East and Africa: Construction outlookHealthy growth in all segments

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

Total

Residential

Buildings

Infrastructure

2015

2016

2017

Middle East and Africa: construction spending (real % change y/y)

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Rest of Region*

Israel

Iran

United Arab Emirates

South Africa

Saudi Arabia

Middle East and Africa

World

2015

2016

2017

Middle East & Africa: Construction Spending (real, percent change y/y)


Energy

Transportation

Public Health

4%

6%

6%

Infrastructure segments, CAGR 2014-19

* Rest of Region includes Egypt, Kenya, Senegal, Tunisia, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar

© 2015 IHS 51

Middle Eastern construction markets have edged up in risk, but down in growth

10 20 30 40 50 60 700

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Global Median

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Iran

South Africa

Qatar

Israel

Egypt

Morocco

Oman

Kuwait

Nigeria

Tunisia

Bahrain

JordanKenya

Cameroon

Senegal

Middle East and Africa - total constructionBubble size: total construction spending, 2015 billions of 2010 US$


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(%

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IHSTM

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Global Construction Outlook Divergences in the world economy and construction markets Scott...

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