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Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Global Outlook: Supply & Demand for Wood Products
Ed Pepke, Ph.D.Forest Products Marketing SpecialistFood and Agricultural Organization
UN Economic Commission for EuropeGeneva, Switzerland
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Outline
• Forest products markets– Production, consumption &
trade– Global– Regional– Sectoral
• Forest resources• Growing the market
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Sources • UNECE/FAO TIMBER database on forest
products statistics• UNECE/FAO Temperate & Boreal Forest
Resources Assessment• FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study• FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment• FAOSTAT Forestry Database website• UNECE/FAO Timber Bulletin “Forest products
annual market analysis, 2002-2005• UNECE Timber Committee market forecasts
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Forest products markets
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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World production of roundwood,1961-2003
Source: FAOSTAT
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
Bil
lio
n m
3
Industrial roundwood Fuelwood
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Regional production of industrial roundwood, 1961-2010
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2010
Bil
lio
n m
3
Africa Asia America EuropeSource: FAOSTAT and FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Regional trade, all primary forest products, 2002
Source: FAOSTAT
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Europ
e
N&C Am
erica Asia
S.Am
erica CIS
Ocean
ia
Africa
$ B
illio
n
Exports Imports
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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N. American trade, all primary forest products, 1993-2002
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
$ B
illi
on
s
Canadian imports USA imports Canadian exports USA exports
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Sectoral analysis: Lumber
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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N. American softwood lumber market, 1995-2004
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mil
lio
n m
3
Production Consumption
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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N. American softwood lumber trade, 1995-2004
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mil
lio
n m
3
Imports Exports
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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N. American hardwood lumber market, 1995-2004
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mil
lio
n m
3
Production Consumption
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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N. American hardwood lumber trade, 1995-2004
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mill
ion
m3
Imports Exports
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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American lumber consumption & production, 1980-2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n m
3
ConsumptionProduction
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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American lumber trade, 1980-2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n m
3
ExportsImports
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Factors affecting models and markets
• Gross domestic product (GDP)• Population• Costs and prices (labor, raw material,
etc.)• Technological change• Government policies• Socio-economic trends
Global Forest Products Consumption, Production, Trade and Prices:Global Forest Products Model Projections to 2010
By Zhu, S; Tomberlin, D; Buongiorno, J. Published by FAO, 1998
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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European softwood lumber market,
1995-2004
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mil
lio
n m
3
Production Consumption
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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European softwood lumber trade,
1995-2004
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003
20
25
30
35
40
45
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mil
lio
n m
3
Imports Exports
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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European hardwood lumber market,
1995-2004
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
10
12
14
16
18
20
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mill
ion
m3
Production Consumption
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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European hardwood lumber trade,
1995-2004
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
0
2
4
6
8
10
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mill
ion
m3
Imports Exports
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Europe lumber consumption & production outlook, 1980-2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n m
3
ConsumptionProduction
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Europe lumber trade outlook, 1980-2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n m
3
ExportsImports
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Russian softwood lumber market, 1992-2004
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mill
ion
m3
Production Consumption Exports
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Asia lumber production & consumption outlook, 1980-2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n m
3
ConsumptionProduction
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Asia lumber trade outlook,1980-2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n m
3
ExportsImports
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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An asideJapanese and Korean tariffs
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Japanese and Korean tariffs
• In context of WTO trade negotiations, will not support elimination of wood tariffs
• Forest product tariffs protect the domestic industry interest
• Tariffs protect the environment, preserve limited natural forest resources and maintain minimum harvest levels for forest management
• Forestry Agencies of both governments will continue this bilateral forum to protect common trade interests in the forest products sector.
Source: Global Agriculture Information Network, January 2004.
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Sectoral analysis: Panels
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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North America structural production, 1995-2004
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mill
ion
m3
OSB Plywood
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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European OSB market, 1995-2004
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
0
1
2
3
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mil
lio
n m
3
Production Imports Exports
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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America panel consumption & production outlook, 1980-2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n m
3
ConsumptionProduction
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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America panel trade outlook,1980-2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n m
3
ExportsImports
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Europe panel consumption & production outlook, 1980-2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n m
3
ConsumptionProduction
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Europe panel trade outlook,1980-2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n m
3
ExportsImports
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Asia panel consumption & production outlook, 1980-2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1994 2000 2005
Mil
lio
n m
3
ConsumptionProduction
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Asia panel trade outlook, 1980-2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1980 1994 2000 2005
Mil
lio
n m
3
ExportsImports
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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An aside on theChinese market
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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China’s expanding trade
• Total export value 2003: $390 billion, +36%• Total import value 2003: 371 billion, +39%• Trade surplus: $20 billion• China & Japan 2003 trade: $120 billion, +31%• China & US 2003 trade: $114 billion, +29%• China & Europe 2003 trade: $112 billion,
+43%• “Sudden growth” of primary product imports:
timber, steel, oil, soybeans
Source: “China Forest Products Market Information”, December 2003
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Sino-US furniture trade: US side
• Chinese share of US market increasing rapidly
• Chinese furniture exports to US– 2000: $1.7 billion– 2002: $2.9 billion
• Anti-dumping investigation requested by 28 American furniture manufacturers in November 2003
• US furniture industry earnings down 70%• US furniture workforce down 34,000
Source: “China Forest Products Market Information”, December 2003
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Sino-US furniture trade: Chinese side
• 60% of China’s furniture exports are “American” furniture– Produced by US-owned companies– US wood– US technology and styles
• Advantage for US manufacturers is low manufacturing costs– Labor– Energy– Taxes
Source: “China Forest Products Market Information”, December 2003
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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China’s booming timber imports
• Housing construction– Only minority wood-based– Green and healthy communities– Affordable
• Renovation market for houses and municipal
• Infrastructure development• Interior woodwork and furnishings• Olympic-related construction (2008
Beijing)Source: “China Forest Products Market Information”, December 2003
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Sectoral analysis: Paper
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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N. America paper & paperboard consumption & production outlook,
1980-2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
s
ConsumptionProduction
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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N. America paper & paperboard trade outlook, 1980-2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
s
ExportsImports
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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European paper & paperboard consumption & production outlook,
1980-2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
s
ConsumptionProduction
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Europe paper & paperboard trade outlook, 1980-2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
s
ExportsImports
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Asia paper & paperboard consumption & production
outlook, 1980-2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
s
ConsumptionProduction
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Asia paper & paperboard trade outlook, 1980-2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
s
ExportsImports
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
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Summary: Key market issues (1 of 2)
• Illegal logging and trade of illegally-sourced wood
• Certification of sustainable forest management, markets for certified forest products
• Policies for sound use of wood, wood promo
• Industrial development policies and structural oversupply
Source: Forest Products Annual Market Analysis, 2002-2004
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Summary: Key market issues (2 of 2)
• Climate change policy
• Wood energy promotion policies
• Trade policy, tariff and non-tariff
barriers
Source: Forest Products Annual Market Analysis, 2002-2004
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Forest resources
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Annual change in forest area, 1990-2000, (million hectares)
Deforestation
Increase in forest area
Net change in forest area
Tropics -14.2 +1.9 -12.3Non-tropics -0.4 +3.3 +2.9
World -14.6 +5.2 -9.4
Source: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000
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Annual change in forest area, 1990-2000
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Mill
ion
Hec
tare
s
Natural Plantation Total
N & CAmeric
a
SouthAmerica
Europe
Asia
Africa
Oceania
Source: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000
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Reasons behind deforestation
• Conversion to other land uses (0.4% of worlds’ forests annually in the ’90s)– Agricultural, including grazing– Urbanization
• Unsustainable silvicultural practices– Unmanaged harvesting– Poor regeneration– Overharvesting fuelwood
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Forest resources in N. America
• 80% of net annual increment harvested
• Forest volume increases ~3 million m3 daily
• Forest area 1990 to 2000– USA +0.2%– Canada, no significant change
Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2001; Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000; Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Forest resources in Europe
• Only 60% of wood grown is harvested• Forest volume increases ~2 million
m3 daily • Forestland increases by 500,000
hectares per year
Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2003; Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000; Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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State of Europe’s Forests
• Resources increasing• Forest health and vitality are critical• Productive functions maintained• Biodiversity is a focus• Plantations are only 3%• Protective forests are 12%• Socio-economic functions important
Source: Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe, 2003.
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Forest resources in Russian Federation
• Only 16% of wood grown is harvested• Forest volume increases ~3 million m3
daily • Forest area 1990 to 2000: no
significant change
Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2003; Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000; Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
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Forest resources: growing stock
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Europe (41) NorthAmerica
CIS
Growing Stock
Net AnnualIncrementFellings
Million
m
3
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.
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Forest resources: NAI vs. fellings
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Europe (41) N. America CIS
Net Annual Increment Fellings
Million
m
3
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.
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Forest resources: NAI vs. fellings
Fellings as% of NAI
Europe-41 60%
EU-15 64%
Nordic countries
72%
Baltic countries
50%
Central & eastern Europe
56%
Russia 16%
North America 80%Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.
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Regional forest resource utilization
Note: Not all “forest available for wood supply”Roundwood does not include chips. Therefore, %ages are gross. Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2003, FAO Stat.
Wood in forest (billion
m3)
Roundwoodharvest
2002 (million m3)
Roundwood
harvest 2002 (%)
S & C America
117 439 0.4 %
Russia 89 192 0.2 %
N. America 60 678 1.1 %
Africa 46 613 1.3 %
Asia 35 1,005 2.9 %
Europe 28 395 1.4 %
Oceania 11 63 0.6 %
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• Removals considerably below growth• Wide variance in utilization rates of NAI • Growing stock increasing in Europe• Southern hemisphere plantations expanding• Oversupply compared to demand for wood• Increasing alternative demands on forests
Forest resources summary
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Growing the market
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Growing too much wood?
Not enough wood products demand?
What are the solutions?
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Grow the wood markets
• Guarantee that today’s wood products meet consumers’ needs
• Develop new products to meet evolving needs
• Develop new markets for wood products: substitute for non-renewable materials
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How can we grow the wood markets?
• Engage the industry: build coordinated, international promotion programs
• Create favorable policy environments• Promote public awareness of key
issues and messages
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Examples
• FAO/UNECE Forest Communicators Network– creates a positive image of the
forest and forest industries sector– networking among members– identifying key common messages
and concepts– building PR capacity
• Wood Promotion Network
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Market effects of wood promotion
• Multi-country wood promotion essential to enlarge wood’s market share
• Promotion must be cost justified• Identify and know target markets:
cultural and technical dimensions• Fund raising a problem in fragmented
industry• Key elements: competence, neutrality,
credibility, resources
Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2001-2002
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UNECE Timber Committee recommendations
• Develop new products to expand existing markets
• Establish new markets to meet consumers’ needs
• Build international cooperation in promoting environmental advantages of sustainable wood production
• Promote wood culture
Global Competition: Forest Products Imports ExportsWausau, Wisconsin, USA, 24 February 2004
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Questions and Discussion
Ed PepkeForest Products Marketing Specialist
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch439 Palais des Nations
CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Telephone +41 22 917 2872Fax +41 22 917 [email protected]
www.unece.org/trade/timber