Global Climate Change9

8/22/2019 Global Climate Change9

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Global

Climate

Change

The Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots, coincided with the Little

Ice Age, a period of unusual cold. But it has not been proven whether there is a causal

connection between low sunspot activity and cold winters as that period also coincided with

an upswing in volcanic emissions, which are known more definitely to contribute to global

cooling.

solar maximum in 2013


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Influences on global climate Distribution of the Continents (continents at poles Ice Caps can form rare in Earth history) Average elevation of the continents Earth Orbit ,Precession and Tilt Volcanic Events and Reflections off snowy ground Greenhouse Gases (CH4 and CO2) and Clouds

RADIANT OUTPUT OF THE SUN (more vapour and clouds on Earth reflects away more heat)

Major GlaciationsSnowball Earth

Billions of Years Deep time

Earth History Deep Time


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Late Proterozoic

extensive glaciation sites

While glaciation appears to have

extended to the tropics

the paleogeography

remains uncertain


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There are many acknowledged influences on Climate Forcing
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c9/Co2_glacial_cycles_800k.png


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CO2 levels in the atmosphere(and North American Glaciations)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide.pnghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c9/Co2_glacial_cycles_800k.png


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400 and 450k years of

climate temperature

history and CO2The major European

Glaciations

Today

Today


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Phanerozoic Sea Level Variations anddetailed temperature from the last 5 million

years. Almost a 300m level of Phanerozoic

fluctuations.

Humans

evolve Today

7-8o C Temperature Fluctuations

Over the past 600k years
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/Phanerozoic_Climate_Change.pnghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f7/Five_Myr_Climate_Change.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/Phanerozoic_Climate_Change.png


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Today on the Earths Cycle
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7e/Milankovitch_Variations.png


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Volcanic Events

Currently trending to cooler

solar forcing

Today
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7e/Milankovitch_Variations.png


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The cycles versus CO2 and Dust

From

volcanic

eruptions

Today
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/Vostok_Petit_data.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/Vostok_Petit_data.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/Vostok_Petit_data.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/Vostok_Petit_data.svg


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Today
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The Last Interglacial/Glacial Cycle (Brian John, 1979, The Winters of the World)

The peak of the last interglacial occurred about 125,000 years ago. Evidence from around the world indicates that the last

interglacial was considerably warmer than at any time during the 10,000 years or so of our current interglacial.

For example, in the Canadian Arctic last-interglacial sites have been located and plants, mosses and beetles used to estimate the

former climate by analogy with the present distribution of key species: larch grew on Banks Island 3ookm north of the present

northern limit; dwarf birch was the dominant shrub in the Low Arctic tundra which covered Baffin Island, whereas today dwarf

birch is only to be found 450 km south of these sites, and even there it occurs only in especially favourable localities; and at the

same sites on Baffin Island the mosses and beetles show distinct similarities to assemblages which occur today about 1,000 km to

the southwest near Hudson Bay.

This warm last interglacial was marked by a world sea-level five to eight metres above that of the present. A five-to-eight-metre

global rise in sea-level may not seem much, but it is equivalent to the mass of water stored in the Greenland or West Antarctic

icesheets. The high sea-level indicates that one of these two icesheets probably disappeared about 125,000 years ago. The weight

of evidence favours the view that it was the West Antarctic Icesheet which collapsed and disappeared.

In 5,ooo years, enough water was transferred from the oceans onto the land for world sea-level to drop by sixty metres. This

averages out to a 1.2 cm fall of sea-level per year, or twelve metres per thousand years.


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Last Ice AgeSea

level

rises

about

90m

Aborigines walk to

Tasmania

The last Ice Age to the modern climate situation

Greenland Ice Core next slide

Today


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Possible overall cooling trend

Today


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Minoan

Warming
http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=a_b7rKzgbdhQYM&tbnid=OoJQFnXIbaRz-M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/climate4.htm&ei=s3brUcerMMa2kgWfvYHYCg&bvm=bv.49478099,d.aGc&psig=AFQjCNE6dU8Ker8iB8ERmJm8DQijste2-Q&ust=1374445958175824http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=a_b7rKzgbdhQYM&tbnid=OoJQFnXIbaRz-M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/climate4.htm&ei=s3brUcerMMa2kgWfvYHYCg&bvm=bv.49478099,d.aGc&psig=AFQjCNE6dU8Ker8iB8ERmJm8DQijste2-Q&ust=1374445958175824http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=a_b7rKzgbdhQYM&tbnid=OoJQFnXIbaRz-M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/climate4.htm&ei=s3brUcerMMa2kgWfvYHYCg&bvm=bv.49478099,d.aGc&psig=AFQjCNE6dU8Ker8iB8ERmJm8DQijste2-Q&ust=1374445958175824


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In warmer times Hannibal crosses Alps late in the season

without losing too many men or all the elephants fails to sac Rome
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/48/Hannibal_route_of_invasion-en.svg


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Hannibal and his army crossed the Alps in 218 BCE in 16 days,which is still considered an amazing feat, taking into accountthat it was late in the year and in uncharted territory as far asHannibal was concerned; that the army of course did notconsist only of the foot soldiers and the cavalry (none of whomhad ever been exposed to the kind of weather they

experienced), but also of the supply trains with their packanimals, the usual camp followers; and last but not least theelephants, most of whom did not survive the ordeal. However,according to Livy,The elephants proved both a blessing and a curse: for though

getting them along the narrow and precipitous tracks caused

serious delay, they were none the less a protection to thetroops, as the natives, never having seen such creatures

before, were afraid to come near them.The image is of a Roman marble bust of Hannibal, found atCapua.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Bust_of_Hannibal.jpg


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Extent of former Northern ice sheets


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Modern climate change effects


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The Radiant Output of the SUN


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The Solar Sunspot cycle

Peak in Cycle 22


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Little Ice Age

Long term sunspot trends
http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=6xRmXL9iovmR0M&tbnid=LrQQ9jAsg2yMAM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwAA&url=http://www.astropa.unipa.it/%7Eorlando/INTRO_SUN/slide17.html&ei=o7rsUdKQO4XskAWy64CoDg&psig=AFQjCNH1YR0kzoin9r-b61yf_1g-hpJv4w&ust=1374555172014666http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=6xRmXL9iovmR0M&tbnid=LrQQ9jAsg2yMAM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwAA&url=http://www.astropa.unipa.it/%7Eorlando/INTRO_SUN/slide17.html&ei=o7rsUdKQO4XskAWy64CoDg&psig=AFQjCNH1YR0kzoin9r-b61yf_1g-hpJv4w&ust=1374555172014666


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The little Ice Age

The Frozen Thames 1677
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/21/The_Frozen_Thames_1677.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/21/The_Frozen_Thames_1677.jpg


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The Frozen Thames 1677
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/21/The_Frozen_Thames_1677.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/21/The_Frozen_Thames_1677.jpg


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Temperature and Solar Intensity
http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=_Im904rUCLHCPM&tbnid=yCopYXvl9DZvmM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/23/ice-ages-and-sea-level/&ei=FhDrUYbLKImPkAWfwIEY&bvm=bv.49478099,d.aGc&psig=AFQjCNE6dU8Ker8iB8ERmJm8DQijste2-Q&ust=1374445958175824


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We start to understand the SUN


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Space-borne measurements of the total solar irradiance (TSI) show ~0.1 percent variations with solar activity

on 11-year and shorter timescales. These data have been corrected for calibration offsets between the

various instruments used to measure TSI. SOURCE: Courtesy of Greg Kopp, University of Colorado.


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Waning Sunspot Cycles Is there a form of Plate Tectonics on the SUN?
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/latest_512_45001.jpghttp://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/solar_region_count.png


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World Gravity (from Greene 2005/ Scripps/Exxon Mobil)

Earth Plate tectonics only available model


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Infra red intensity

increases with

decreasing

magnetic field strength


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Evidence of Decreasing Solar

Magnetic Field Strength?

WEATHER CYCLES


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REAL OR

IMAGINARY?WILLIAM JAMES BURROUGHS

1992

CAMBRIDGE

UNIVERSITY PRESS

Clouds are almost always more reflective than the ocean surface and the land except where

there is snow. So when clouds are present they reflect more solar energy into space than do

areas which have clear skies. Overall their effect is approximately to double the albedo of the

planet from what it would be in the absence of clouds to a value of about 30%. Conversely,

when clouds are present over the depth of the atmosphere, less thermal energy is radiated to

space than when the skies are clear. It is the net difference between these two effects whichestablishes whether the presence of clouds cools or heats the planet.

The overall impact of clouds globally is to reduce the amount of absorbed solar radiation by

48W/m2 and reduce the heat radiation to space by 31W/m2 . So clouds have a net cooling

effect on the global climate.
http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=7LqHsAOSNldfzM&tbnid=0HGF7gTtSRgZaM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.technobuffalo.com/2013/04/02/amazon-cloud-drive-pc-mac-software/&ei=c531Uaj7OcqxkgWdroCYCQ&bvm=bv.49784469,d.dGI&psig=AFQjCNEiN-V1DRnqSx0caUbmc9HI8pQFVw&ust=1375137486498551


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The Sun appears to becycling lower than in the

past 165 years


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Solar minimum11 Year cycle

Strong magnetic field

1994

BBC Solar Program


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Solar Maximum 2012 Cairns

Weakest solar maximumin 30 years

Weak magnetic field

The Cairns Eclipse 2012 showed:

BBC Solar Program


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Average Magnetic Field of Sunspots

Reducing over the past 10 years

This suggests a Grand Minimumcould occur by 2022

The little ice age

BBC Solar Program


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WEATHER CYCLES

REAL OR

IMAGINARY?WILLIAM JAMES BURROUGHS

1992

CAMBRIDGE

UNIVERSITY PRESS

Cloud feedback mechanisms that can operate are significant. For

instance, if the storm track across the North Atlantic were to

move south, as appears to have been the case during the Little

Ice Age, this could have a significant cooling effect. Taking an

extreme example, if the region of strongest cloud forcing at

around 45deg N underwent a shift southwards to 35deg N

throughout the year, it could induce a hemispherical average

radiative cooling of roughly 3 W/m2.

The significance of this figure is that it is comparable to the

estimated 4 W/m2 radiative heating arising from a doubling of

the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

So, although this example may be excessive, the message is clear- sustained natural changes in the distribution of cloud cover

could have significant climatic impact.


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These six extreme UV images of the

sun, taken by NASA's Solar Dynamics

Observatory, track the rising level of

solar activity as the sun ascends

toward the peak of the latest 11-year

sunspot cycle.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/clip_image0042.jpg


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R.J. Salvador

82% correlation between the

sunspot cycle and the Global

Temperature Anomaly. Thecorrelation is obtained through a

non linear time series summation

of NASA monthly sunspot data to

the NOAA monthly Global

Temperature Anomaly.

This correlation is made

without, averaging, filtering, or

discarding any temperature or

sunspot data.

Sunspot Cycle and the GlobalTemperature Change Anomaly

May 3, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/03/sunspot-cycle-and-the-global-temperature-change-anomaly/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/03/sunspot-cycle-and-the-global-temperature-change-anomaly/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/03/sunspot-cycle-and-the-global-temperature-change-anomaly/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/03/sunspot-cycle-and-the-global-temperature-change-anomaly/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/03/sunspot-cycle-and-the-global-temperature-change-anomaly/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/03/sunspot-cycle-and-the-global-temperature-change-anomaly/http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/clip_image0042.jpghttp://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/clip_image0061.jpg


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http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/clip_image0121.jpghttp://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/clip_image0141.jpg


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The natural variations in temperature during the existence and spread of modern humans(about 120k years) has seen falls and rises up to 7 deg C and this has likely occurred many

times since humans first evolved about 5.5 million years ago

During the time of modern humans both temperatures and sea-levels have been higherand much lower than observed today

The effect of a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere is unlikely to have an impact greaterthan the natural temperature variability fluctuations but will cause an overall rise in

average temperature

Average Magnetic Field of Sunspots reducing over the past 10 years suggests a GrandMinimum could occur by 2022

If the sunspot number is zero in a month the correlation predicts that the GlobalTemperature Anomaly trend will decrease at 0.0118 degree centigrade per month.

If there were no sunspots for a year the temperature would decline 0.141 degrees. Ifthere were no Sunspots for 50 years we would be entering an ice age with a 7 degree

centigrade decline.

While a new Grand Minimum might still be unlikely to happen, such an event has occurred

in the past and we are cyclically overdue for a global cooling. The data indicates many

competing influences on the natural temperature cycles.


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