Global Climate Change

What Must We Do Now?*

James Hansen

1 February 2010

University of North Carolina

Chapel Hill, NC *Statements relating to policy are personal opinion

Global Warming Status1. Knowledge Gap Between

- What is Understood (scientists)- What is Known (public)

2. Planetary Emergency- Climate Inertia Warming in Pipeline- Tipping Points Could Lose Control

3. Bad News & Good News- Safe Level of CO2 < 350 ppm- Multiple Benefits of Solution

Climate Tipping Points1. Ice Sheet Disintegration

- Ocean Warming Ice Shelves Melt Ice Streams Surge Disintegration

2. Species Extermination- Shifting Climate Zones, Multiple Stresses, Species Interdependencies

3. Methane Hydrate ‘frozen methane’- In Tundra & On Continental Shelves- Depends On Ocean & Ice Sheets

First grandchild, Sophie – at age almost two years

Analysis of global surface temperature change. Green vertical bar is estimated 95 percent confidence range. Base period = 1951-1980.

60-month (5-year) and 132-month (11-year) mean temperature anomaly relative to 1951-1980 mean. Input data extend through December 2009.Source: Hansen et al., GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res.104, 30997-31022, 1999.

Surface temperature anomalies in (a) Dec and (b) Jun-Jul-Aug 2009 relative to 1951-1980

Source: Hansen et al., GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res.104, 30997-31022, 1999.

Positive AO: low pressure in Arctic, strong zonal winds keep cold air confined to Arctic.

Negative AO: high pressure in Arctic, weak zonal winds facilitate cold air outbreaks.

December 2009

Basis of Understanding

1. Earth’s Paleoclimate History

2. On-Going Global Changes

3. Climate Models (note: modeling #3, but aids other two)

50 million years ago (50 MYA) Earth was ice-free.

Atmospheric CO2 amount was of the order of 1000 ppm 50 MYA.

Atmospheric CO2 imbalance due to plate tectonics ~ 10-4 ppm per year.

Cenozoic Era

End of Cretaceous (65 My BP) Present Day

50 million years ago (50 MYA) Earth was ice-free.

Atmospheric CO2 amount was of the order of 1000 ppm 50 MYA.

Atmospheric CO2 imbalance due to plate tectonics ~ 10-4 ppm per year.

Summary: Cenozoic Era

1. Dominant Forcing: Natural ΔCO2

- Rate ~100 ppm/My (0.0001 ppm/year)

- Human-made rate today: ~2 ppm/year

Humans Overwhelm Slow Geologic Changes

2. Climate Sensitivity High- Antarctic ice forms if CO2 < ~450 ppm

- Ice sheet formation reversible

Humans Could Produce “A Different Planet”

Earth’s history provides important information on global warming.

Recorded human history occurs within the Holocene warm period.

CO2,CH4 and estimated global temperature (Antarctic ΔT/2 in ice core era)0 = 1880-1899 mean.

Source: Hansen, Clim. Change, 68, 269, 2005.

Source: Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science 308, 1431, 2005.

(A) Forcings used to drive climate simulations.

(B) Simulated and observed surface temperature change.

(B) Ocean heat gain in the top 750 m of world ocean.

Source: Hansen et al., Science, 308, 1431, 2005.

(A) Net Radiation at top of atmosphere in climate simulations.

Levitus et al. heat storage in upper 700 meters of ocean

Heat storage in upper 2000 meters of ocean during 2003-2008 based on ARGO data

(Schuckmann et al. J. Geophys. Res. 114, C09007, doi:10.1029/2008JC005237, 2009)

Implications of Planet’s Imbalance

1. Humans are Driving Climate Change GHG forcing + Ocean inertia Imbalance

2. Additional Warming in Pipeline ¾ W/m2 imbalance >0.5°C warming

3. Accelerating Ice Sheet Disintegration Ocean heat is melting ice shelves, which buttress the ice sheets

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Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaftcarrying water to ice sheet base.

Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)

Surface Melt on Greenland

Jakobshavn Ice Stream in Greenland

Discharge from major Greenland ice streams is accelerating markedly.

Source: Prof. Konrad Steffen, Univ. of Colorado

Gravity Satellite Ice Sheet Mass Measurements

Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet

Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009.

Arctic sea ice area at warm season minimum.

Data Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Subtropics are expected to expand with global warming.

Observations show, on average, 4 degrees of latitude expansion.

Pier on Lake Mead

Fires Are Increasing World-Wide

Source: Westerling et al. 2006

Western US area burned

Wildfires in Western US have increased 4-fold in 30 years.

Rongbuk Glacier

Rongbuk glacier in 1968 (top) and 2007. The largest glacier on Mount Everest’s northern slopes feeds Rongbuk River.

Coral Reef off Fiji (Photo credit: Kevin Roland)

Stresses on Coral Reefs

Assessment of Target CO2

Phenomenon Target CO2 (ppm)

1. Arctic Sea Ice 300-350

2. Ice Sheets/Sea Level 300-350

3. Shifting Climatic Zones 300-350

4. Alpine Water Supplies 300-350

5. Avoid Ocean Acidification 300-350

Initial Target CO2 = 350* ppm*assumes CH4, O3, Black Soot decrease

Target CO2:

< 350 ppm

To preserve creation, the planet on which civilization developed

Scenarios assume no “Other” = Tar Sands, Oil Shale, Methane Hydrates

Coal phase-out by 2030 peak CO2 ~400-425 ppm, depending on oil/gas.

Faster return below 350 ppm requires additional actionsSource: Hansen et al., Target atmospheric CO2: where should humanity aim? Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 217-231, 2008.

Initial Target CO2: 350 ppm

Technically Feasible

Quick Coal Phase-Out NecessaryNo new coal w/o CO2 captureAll coal phased out within 20 years

No Unconventional Fossil Fuels Tar Sands, Oil Shale, Methane Hydrates

What’s Really Happening (USA)

1. Tar Sands agreement with Canada Pipeline planned to transport oil

2. Oil Shale under development Twice CO2/energy of conventional oil

3. New Coal-fired power plants Rationalized by ‘Clean Coal’ mirage

4. Mountaintop removal proceeds Destroys wind potential of mountains

Global Action Status1. Huge Gap: Rhetoric & Reality

- Rhetoric: Planet in Peril- Reality: Small Perturbations to BAU

2. Greenwash/Disinformation Winning- Appeasement of Fossil Interests- Still Waiting for a Winston Churchill

3. Kyoto & Copenhagen Fiascos- Kyoto accelerating emissions- Copenhagen same “indulgences”

Problem & Solution1. Fossil Fuels are Cheapest Energy

- Subsidized & Do Not Pay Costs- Solution: Rising Price on Carbon

2. Regulations also Required- Efficiency of Vehicles, Buildings,e.g.- Carbon Price Provides Enforcement

3. Technology Development Needed- Driven by Certainty of Carbon Price- Government Role Limited

Fee & Dividend

1. Fee Applied at First Sale/Port of Entry Covers all Oil, Gas, Coal No Leakage

2. Fee Specified: No Speculation, No Volatility No Wall Street Millionaires at Public Expense

3. Fee & Dividend (vs. Cap-and-Trade) Not One Dime to Goldman-Sachs et al.

Can be Implemented in Months

Market Chooses Technology Winners

British Columbia Example: Public Likes It

Carbon Fee & 100% Dividend

(consider: $115/ton CO2 = $1/gal. gas)

1. Yield ~ $670B (U.S. example)

2. Dividend (bank acct or debit card) Adult Legal Resident

($250/month = $3000/year)

Family with 2 Children

($750/month = $9000/year)

Fee & Dividend Addresses

1. Economy: Stimulates It Puts Money in Public’s Hands– A Lot!

2. Energy: Fossil Fuel Addiction Fastest Route to Clean Energy Future

3. Climate Only Internationally Viable Approach - - Zero Chance of China/India Accepting a Cap

Would Result in Most Coal & Unconventional Fossil Fuels, some Oil left in the Ground

Universality, Fairness

1. Fees almost Universally Beneficial No Country Covets Fossil Fuel Addiction

2. Duties on Products from no-fee Areas Use for Mitigation/Adaptation Aid

3. Fairness: Reward Best Practices Use Duties preferentially for Countries that

address Population (e.g., women’s education)

So What’s the Problem Today?

1. Fossil Fuels Still Priced Lowest Fossil Fuels Subsidized No Charge for Damages (Health, etc.)

2. Governments Under Fossil Thumbs Greenwash Instead of Leadership

3. Revolving Door in Washington Hatch Schemes for Business-as-Usual Favoring Big Banks, Fossil Fuel Industry

Cap-and-Trade-and-Offsets

1. Cap Approach Can’t Go Global China & India will never accept caps

2. Cap Dishonest: Pretends at Low Cost Actually expensive (very inefficient)

3. Cap Comes with Offsets Actual GHG reductions small

4. Cap causes Volatile Carbon Price Discourage business/consumer investing

Cap-and-Trade: Why???

1. C&T Designed for Big BanksTop Two: JP MorganChase, Goldman Sachs

2. C&T Designed for Special Interests 2000-Page Bills Written by Special Interests

Why??? Revolving Door Between Wall St. & Washington

Revolving Door Between Lobbyists & Congress

That’s the way the system seems to work now.

caption

Jake: You’re on your own baby – Good Luck!

Intergenerational JusticeJefferson to Madison: …self-evident that “the

Earth belongs in usufruct to the living”*

Native Americans: obligation to 7th generation

Larry King: “nobody cares about 50 years from now”

Governments (with fossil interests): we can set emissions at whatever level we choose

Public: when will it become involved?

*Legal right to use something belonging to another

Strategic Options1. Dialogue with Governments, but:

Their Perspective is Short-TermUndue Sway of Money (lobbyists)

2. CourtsCommon law – We are enjoying use

of property that belongs to others

3. Public Protests and ActionsSeem Necessary, Are Growing But Public has Other Concerns

Web Site

www.columbia.edu/~jeh1includes

Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?

Global Warming Twenty Years Later: Tipping Points Near

In Defence of Kingsnorth Six

“Free Will” Alternative

1. Phase Out Coal CO2 Emissions- by 2025/2030 developed/developing countries

2. Rising Carbon Price- discourages unconventional fossil fuels & extraction of every last drop of oil (Arctic, etc.)

3. Soil & Biosphere CO2 Sequestration- improved farming & forestry practices

4. Reduce non-CO2 Forcings- reduce CH4, O3, trace gases, black soot

Technical Priorities1. Energy Efficiency

Standards & Carbon Tax Needed

2. Renewable Energies Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Biomass…

3. Next Generations of Nuclear Power 3rd Gen.: increased safety 4th Gen.: burns waste, efficiency X 100

4. Carbon Capture & Sequestration Cost, Coal Problems Remain, Use w Biofuels?

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2009/ECWorkshop_report.pdf