Global Climate Change Sabine Perch-Nielsen 26 February 2009 innovateZIS, Zurich International...

Global Climate Change

Sabine Perch-Nielsen

26 February 2009

innovateZIS, Zurich International School

innovateZIS slide 2 26 February 2009

What is it all about?

Greenhouse gases:

CO2, methane, nitrous oxides…

The Greenhouse Gas Effect: an important and

welcome mechanism


We are emitting huge amounts of GHGs due to energy use, deforestation, agriculture and others:

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

mill

ion

me

tric

ton

s o

f C

gasliquid

solid

total carbon emissions from fossil fuels

CDIAC, 2009


Our emissions are causing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere to rise

Estimations from ice cores and direct atmospheric measurements (red)

atm

osp

her

ic C

O2

con

cen

trat

ion

(p

pm

)

IPCC, WG1, 2007


This intensifies the greenhouse gas effect …

Greenhouse gases:

CO2, methane, nitrous oxides…


… causing temperatures to rise…

1948 20062002

Trift-Glacier, Berner Oberland


… worldwide.

change 1979-2005, IPCC, WG1, 2007

change in global temperature at the surface in the last 25 years

°C change per decade -0.75 +0.75

IPCC, 1250 contributing authors, 2500 authors, 2500 reviewers, unanimously XX by 130 countries


The many elements of the climate system

IPCC, WG1, 2007


Where are we heading?

Estimations from ice cores and direct atmospheric measurements (red)

atm

osph

eric

CO

2 c

once

ntra

tion

(ppm

)

IPCC, WG1, 2007

?


It of course depends on our emissions:

Raupach et al. 2007

scenario B1

scenario A2 range of IPCC scenarios for 2100


So where are we heading?

range of IPCC

scenarios for 2100

IPCC, WG1, 2007

atm

osph

eric

CO

2

conc

entr

atio

n (p

pm)

?

scenario B1

scenario A2


Where we are heading if we continue BAU:

scenario B1

scenario A2

scenarios B1 / A2, IPCC, SPM WG1, 2007

change in global temperature at the surface compared to 1980-1999


scenario 1 scenario 2By 2100:

IPCC, WG2, 2007


Where are we heading today?

Raupach et al., 2007

scenario B1

scenario A2

current growth rate in emissions is higher than any of the IPCC scenarios!


How can we avoid “dangerous climate change”?

stay below 2°C global warming (compared to pre-industrial -> 1.3°C compared to today)

stabilise atmospheric CO2 concentration < approx. 450 ppm

reduce global emissions by ~ 50% by 2050 and~ 80% by 2100 compared to 1990.

Raupach et al. 2007

scenario B1

scenario A2

2°C scenario


Principle of “common but differentiated responsibility”

IPCC, WG3, 2007

The area of all squares together need to be reduced by 50% by 2050: goal

2050


Principle of “common but differentiated responsibility”

Wikipedia, WRI 2006

poverty: % of population living on less than 1 USD a day


Reduction targets for developed countries

global emissions need to be reduced by ~ 50% by 2050 and~ 80% by 2100 compared to 1990

under “common but differentiated responsibility” this means that developed countries must reduce their emissions even more than that


When should we start reducing: Now or later?

IPCC, WG3, 2007

„Later“ should not be an option. Not because damage by climate change in 10 years is so high, but because the necessary goals become impossible to achieve.


To take home

A world with a different climate is not far away but already seriously affects our and our children’s lives.

The dimensions of global temperature rise might seem small (2 or 3°C), but it has an enormous impact on our lives.

The longer we wait the more restricted options will be. Rising global temperatures cannot be stopped but only slowed

down: constant concentration (2000) -> still increase of 0.1°C per decade. We will also have to adapt a changing climate.

Avoiding dangerous climate change is a huge and urgent worldwide challenge. The main goals are to stop deforestation, increase energy efficiency and boost renewable energies.

The Stern review suggests three essential policy elements: carbon pricing, technology policy, and removal of barriers to behavioural change.

Emission reductions are “cheap” – compared to inaction (-> Stern review)


myclimate

offsetting

carbon management education climate & energy


myclimate

high quality offsets, only energy, no forestry

non-profit, high credibility, min. 80% of offset receipts go into projects

voluntary market, not compliance market

among the best carbon offset providers worldwide:○ 2007: Tufts University (comparison of 13)

○ 2008: environmental publisher ENDS (comparison of 170 offset providers globally)

from 60’000 CHF in 2003 to 6’000’000 CHF in 2008

Thank you

Global Climate Change Sabine Perch-Nielsen 26 February 2009 innovateZIS, Zurich International...

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