GLOBAL CHANGE

TRENDS AND DYNAMICS

Prof.Dr.Coşkun Can Aktan

Social Sciences Research Society

http://www.sobiad.org

& Dokuz Eylul University, Turkey

http://www.canaktan.org

THE CHANGE TRENDS AND DYNAMICS

→ Economic change

→ Political change

→ Technological change

→ Ecological change

→ Demographic change

→ Socio-cultural change

→ Organizational change

ECONOMIC CHANGE

Globalization

....increased integration of world

markets of goods, services and

capital.

...integration of trade, finance, people,

and ideas in one global marketplace.

...political globalization, economic

globalization, social and cultural

globalization.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and of its control over Eastern Europe in 1989 (fall of the Berlin Wall), the economic map of the world has considerably changed.

The European Union (EU) has strengthened its foundations with new members ...

North America merged within NAFTA while South America developed Mercosur and the Andean Pact. Africa, the Middle East and South Asia have not yet developed significant regional trade agreements. The only trading bloc of relevance in Asia is ASEAN.

Regionalization and Major Regional Trade Blocs

Major Economic Blocs, 2007

Source:Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University.

people.hofstra.edu/.../economicblocs.html

Economic Bloc and Member Nations

(Membership date)

Population

in Millions

(2004)

GDP in Trillion

$US PPP (2004)

NAFTA: Canada (1989), United States (1989), Mexico (1994). 430 15.279

EU: Belgium (1957), France (1957), Italy (1957), Luxembourg (1957), Netherlands

(1957), West Germany (1957), Denmark (1973), Ireland (1973), United Kingdom

(1973), Greece (1981), Portugal (1986), Spain (1986), East Germany (1990

reunification), Sweden (1995), Finland (1995), Austria (1995), Estonia (2004),

Latvia (2004), Lithuania (2004), Poland (2004), Czech Republic (2004), Slovakia

(2004), Slovenia (2004), Hungary (2004), Cyprus (2004) and Malta (2004),

Bulgaria (2007), Romania (2007).

496 12.025

Mercosur: Argentina (1991), Brazil (1991), Uruguay (1991), Paraguay (1991),

Venezuela (2006). 265 2.236

ASEAN: Indonesia (1967), Malaysia (1967), Philippines (1967), Singapore (1967),

Thailand (1967), Brunei (1984), Vietnam (1995), Laos (1997), Burma (1997),

Cambodia (1999).

553 0.591

EFTA: Austria (1960-1995), Danemark (1960-1973), Iceland (1960), Norway

(1960), Portugal (1960-1986), Sweden (1960-1995), Switzerland (1960), United

Kingdom (1960-1973), Finland (1986-1995), Liechtenstein (1991).

11 0.197

Andean Community: Bolivia (1969), Chili (1969-1976), Colombia (1969), Ecuador

(1969), Peru (1969), Venezuela (1973-2006). 130 0.327

CAFTA: Salvador (1961-1971, 1991), Guatemala (1961-1971, 1991), Nicaragua

(1961-1971, 1991), Honduras (1962-1971, 1991), Costa Rica (1963-1971, 1991). 33 0.059

Caricom: Barbados (1973), Guyana (1973), Jamaica (1973), Trinidad and Tobago

(1973), Antigua and Barbuda (1974), Belize (1974), Dominica (1974), Grenada

(1974), Montserrat (1974), Saint-Kitts-and-Nevis (1974), Sainte-Luçie (1974),

Saint-Vincent-et-Grenadines (1974), Bahamas (1983), Suriname (1995), Haiti

(2002).

14 0.064

Source:Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University.

Global Trade Liberalization

Over the past 30 years, the growth of world trade has averaged 6 percent per year, twice as fast as world output.

Since 1947, when the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was created, the world trading system has benefited from eight rounds of multilateral trade liberalization, as well as from unilateral and regional liberalization.

...the last of these eight rounds (the so-called "Uruguay Round" completed in 1994) led to the establishment of the WTO to help administer the growing body of multilateral trade agreements.

Privatization over time

Source:N.Brune, G.Garett,B Kogutt, “IMF and The Global Spread of Privatization”, Nov-2003. (Unpublkished Paper)

Privatization by Region 1985-1999

Source:N.Brune, G.Garett,B Kogutt, “IMF and The Global Spread of Privatization”, Nov-2003. (Unpublkished Paper)

The Other Side of the Coin:

Poverty, hunger and malnutrition

More than one billion people in the world live on less

than US$1 a day

2.7 billion struggle to survive on less than US$2 per

day

More than 800 million people go to bed hungry

every day, including 300 million children

Every 3.6 seconds a person dies of starvation, and

most of those who die are children under age of 5

Every year 6 million children die from malnutrition

before their fifth birthday

The Winds of Economic Change once again

POLITICAL CHANGE

POLITICALPOLITICALCHANGECHANGE

POLITICAL

OPENNES

CONSTITUTIONALISM

DEMOCRATIZATION

POLITICAL FREEDOM

POLITICALDECENTRALIZATION

Figure 3. The Political Change Dynamics

CIVIL SOCIETY

© C.C. Aktan

POLITICALPOLITICALCHANGECHANGE

POLITICAL

OPENNES

CONSTITUTIONALISM

DEMOCRATIZATION

POLITICAL FREEDOM

POLITICALDECENTRALIZATION

Figure 3. The Political Change Dynamics

CIVIL SOCIETY

© C.C. Aktan

Democratization

...Democracy, in a narrow definition is a political order in which individuals enjoy basic political freedom and civil liberties. Democracy, in its broad meaning, consists of the following elements:

-The Rule of Law,

-Seperation of Power

-Transparency

-Secularism

-Civil Society (civic participation)

-Democratic Culture.

-Political decentralization

DEMOCRATIZATION

Freedom in the World –2007 Survey

The Global Trend

Year Under Review Free Partly Free Not Free

1976 42 49 68

1986 57 57 53

1996 79 59 53

2006 90 58 45

Tracking Electoral Democracy

Year Under Review Number of Electoral Democracies

1996 118

2001 121

2006 123

Source: Freedom House

Freedom in the World –2007 Survey

Free: 3,005.0 million (46 percent of the world’s population) live in 90 of the states.

Partly Free: 1,083.2 million (17 percent of the world’s population) live in 58 of the states.

Not Free: 2,448.6 million (37 percent of the world’s population) live in 45 of the states.

Year

under

Review

Free Partly Free Not Free

World Population

(population in millions)

Mid-1992 1,352.2

(24.83%)

2,403.3

(44.11%) 1,690.4 (31.06%) 5446

Mid-2000 2,465.2

(40.69%)

1,435.8

(23.70%) 2,157.5 (35.61%) 6058.5

Mid-2005 2,968.8

(45.97%)

1,157.7

(17.93%) 2,331.2 (36.10%) 6457.7

Mid-2006 3,005.0 (46%) 1,083.2

(17%) 2,448.6 (37%) 6536.8

Source: Freedom House

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

Technological Change

...great transformation due to

developments in science and

technology....

... a shift from first wave economy to

the third wave economy.

Source: Chris Freeman & Luc Soette, The Economics of Industrial Innovation, 3rd ed., MIT Press, 1997.

From Industrial Society to Information Society

Timing Features Communications Energy Key Factors

First

1780's -1840's Industrial revolution Canals, roads Water power Cotton

Second

1840's - 1890's

Steam power and

railways

Railways (iron),

telegraph Steam power Coal, iron

Third

1890's -1940's Electricity and steel

Railway (steel)

telephone Electricity Steel

Fourth

1940's - 1990's Mass production

Highways, radio &

TV,

airlines

Oil Oil, plastics

Fifth

1990's - ??

Micro-electronics &

computer networks Digital networks Gas/oil Micro-electronics

Technological Change

Internet worked technologies, of

which the internet is the most publicly

visible form, are turning the world

upside down as they achieve critical

mass in societies around the world.

Increasingly, networks are reshaping

the way people live, communicate,

and work.

ECOLOGICAL CHANGE

Ecological Change

Economic, technological and social changes are

putting increasing pressure on the world’s

environmental resources.

Much of the world’s biological diversity is in the

developing nations and it is estimated to be

disappearing at 50 to 100 times natural rates.

Wetlands and forests are being lost at 0.3 to 1

percent a year. Greenhouse gas emissions are

growing strongly with increasing activity.

Global Warming – the earth is warming

Ralph J. Cicerone , “CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE AND RESEARCH: RECENT AND UPCOMING STUDIES FROM THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES”,

http://www7.nationalacademies.org/ocga/testimony/Global_Climate_Change_Policy_and_Budget_Review.asp

Water-stressed...

By 2015, nearly half of the world’s

population will live in countries that

are “water-stressed” –have less

than 1.700 cubic meters of water

Per capita per year.- mostly in

Africa, the Middle East, Souts Asia

and Northern China and India.

R K Pachauri, The Nobel Peace Prize

Laureate 2007

“...Peace can be defined as security and the

secure access to resources that are essential

for living. A disruption in such access could

prove disruptive of peace. In this regard,

climate change will have several implications,

as numerous adverse impacts are expected

for some populations in terms of:

access to clean water,

access to sufficient food,

stable health conditions,

ecosystem resources,

security of settlements.

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

Demographic Change Trends

The population growth

The Increasing life expectancy

Aging

Migration

Change in world demographics

Population trends

Movement of People

Two major trends in the movement

of people will characterize the

next decades –urbanization

and the cross-border migration

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

Source:http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/ittmig2002/Migration2002.pdf

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

Source:http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/ittmig2002/Migration2002.pdf

SOCIO-CULTURAL CHANGE

Socio-Cultural Change

Nationalism vs. Internationalism

globalization / transnationalism

Secularization vs. fundamentalism

Individualism vs. Social Solidarity –

Erosion of Social Capital

The effects of social and cultural change

►Social change or transformation affects all

types of society in both developed and

less-developed regions, in the context of

globalisation of economic and cultural

relations...

►Polarisation between rich and poor,

and social exclusion are problems affecting

most countries as well as the relations

between them.

Communal Conflicts ... Transnational

Terrorism

Traditional communal groups –whether

religious or ethnic-lingiustic groups pose a

range of challanges for governance...

Ethnic, cultural or religious tensions

Conflict of civilizations !..

Major Religions

Conclusion

In order to understand the challanges, opportunities

and threats that we all face, we need to understand

the change trends and dynamics first.

There are great advantages as well as disadvantages

of these ongoing change dynamics. Resisting change

is not an option even, because no single actor(s) or

countr(ies) are able to alter the winds of change.

The best strategy for all micro and macro actors would

be trying to understand the new trends first and then

to get benefit from all opportunities and get rid of all

threats as much as possible.

Lord Tennyson

“... Come my friends,

‘tis not too late to seek a newer world. ... for my purpose holds to sail beyond the sunset... and tho’ We are not now that strength which in old days Moved earth and heaven; that which we are, we are; One equal temper of heroic hearts, Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.”

Lord Byron

“The deed have been awakened -

Shall l sleep?

The world ‘s at war with tyrants-

Shall l crouch?

The harvest ‘s ripe- and shall l

pause to reape?

I slumber not; the thorn is in my

couch;

Each day a trumpet soundth in

mine ear,

Its echo in my heart”

End...

Ten Commandments

1. ESTABLISH FREE MARKET ECONOMY AND FOSTER COMPETITION. PROVIDE AND PROTECT ECONOMIC FREEDOMS OF INDIVIDUALS.

2. ESTABLISH DEMOCRACY. PROVIDE AND PROTECT POLITICAL AND

CIVIL LIBERTIES OF INDIVIDUALS.

3. KEEP GOVERNMENT SMALL:

LIMIT THE ECONOMIC ACTIONS AND POWERS OF GOVERNMENT.

4. CREATE A STRONG CIVIL SOCIETY. TO ACHIEVE THIS, IMPLEMENT DEMOCRATIZATION, PRIVATIZATION, DECENTRALIZATION ETC. REFORMS.

5. RESPECT THE RULE OF LAW AND PROVIDE JUSTICE IN SOCIETY.

6. INVEST IN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT.

7. ALLEVIATE POVERTY AND PROVIDE A JUST AND FAIR INCOME DISTRIBUTION.

8. BRING QUALITY IN EVERY ASPECT OF THE LIFE.

9. INSTITUTIONALIZE ETHICS AND VIRTUE IN SOCIETY.

10. DEVELOP SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY.