Global Change in Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve: Vulnerability of ecosystems and Adaptation Strategy...

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Global Change in Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve: Vulnerability of ecosystems and Adaptation Strategy Tatyana Yashina Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve UNDP-ICI Project “Extension of Protected Areas Network for Conservation of the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion” Global Change And Mountain Regions. Perth, Scotland, September, 2010

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Global Change in Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve: Vulnerability of ecosystems and Adaptation Strategy. Presented by Tatyana Yashina at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.

Transcript of Global Change in Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve: Vulnerability of ecosystems and Adaptation Strategy...

Page 1: Global Change in Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve: Vulnerability of ecosystems and Adaptation Strategy [Tatyana Yashina]

Global Change in Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve: Vulnerability of ecosystems

and Adaptation Strategy

Tatyana Yashina

Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve UNDP-ICI Project “Extension of Protected Areas Network for Conservation of the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion”

Global Change And Mountain Regions. Perth, Scotland, September, 2010

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Altai-Sayan designated as one of WWF Global 200 Ecoregions of the World is located at the center of Asia at area of > than 1 mln sq km and shared by Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and China

Katunskiy BR is located at the boundary of Russia and Kazakhstan. The highest peak of Siberia (Mt. Belukha, 4506) is located within its transition zone.

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Katunskiy BR

• Area ~600 000 ha

• Altitudes +750 … +4506 m

• Core zone – a water tower for huge areas

• UNESCO World Natural Heritage Site

• Habitats of endangered animals (Snow leopard, Musk deer…)

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Diversity of Ecosystems

• Glacial and Nival Ecosystems 24%

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Alpine and Subalpine Meadows, 30%

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Montane forests 43%

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Combination of woods and steppes, 2%

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Steppes of intermontane hollows, 1%

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Land Uses

• 9 villages (population ~4000)

• Active tourism

• Agriculture (grazing)

Traditional land use: Deer farming Collection of medicinal plants and other non-timber products Hunting, fishing Apiculture

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Climate Change

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

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1838 1848 1858 1868 1878 1888 1898 1908 1918 1928 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008

Годы

Тем

пер

атур

а,

град

Барнаул Усть-Кокса Кош-Агач

10-летние скользящие Барнаул 10-летние скользящие Усть-Кокса 10-летние скользящие Кош-Агач

(Kharlamova, 2010)

Increase of annual temperature for last 50 years: Ust-Koksa (998 m asl) +2,10C Akkem (2200 m asl) +1,450C

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Climate Change Scenario

• No sophisticated regional modeling

• Several researches (Parfenova et al, 2000, Mikhaylov et al, 1992) indicate following conditions as the most probable climate change scenario in the Altai mountains for next 40 years: increase of annual precipitation by 20% and increase of summer temperatures by 20C.

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Changes In Water And Hydrology

• 60-65% or total water influx is caused by melting of ice and snow.

• Glaciers retreated

by 19,7% during

1952-2004

(Nosenko,

Khromova, 2010)

Tomich Glacier In Katunskiy BR:

1970 (Photo: V. Galakhov)

2008 (Photo: O. Ostanin)

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• Increase of temperatures, especially in summer season will cause intensification of glacier melting. Sophisticated research efforts are required for quantitative estimation the role of more intensive glacier melting in river discharge formation, because the increase of precipitation should also be considered.

• Glacier melting will decrease the amount of water stored in glaciers and in the long-term perspective will negatively affect the river discharge in summer season.

• Increased by 20% precipitation, especially in winter seasons, as projected by WWF (2001), will cause increased probability of extreme floods.

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Ecosystem Response: Biodiversity

• For the Altai mountains the increase of the number of flora species is expected caused by northward migration of the steppe and desert species from Mongolia.

Modern (a) and projected for 2090 (б) number of flora species (after Chebakova, Parfenova, Assessment report, 2009). 0 – water, 1 – up to 100, 2 – 100-300, 3 – 300-600, 4 – 600-900, 5 – 900-1200, 6 – 1200-1500, 7 – 1500-1800, 8 – 1800-2100, 9 – 2100-3000, 10 – 3000-4000.

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Ecosystem Response: Upper Treeline

• upward shift of the treeline (by 50-100 m for 2090) and subalpine shrubs (by 100-200 m) (Mikhailov et al.,

1992)

• fragmentation of alpine ecosystems.

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Land Use Scenario • 2010 - 2019:

• Construction of the mini-hydropower station at the Multa river

• Organization of the touristic complex in Verkh-Ujmon village

• Wood-processing enterprise in Ognyevka village

• Livestock enterprises in large villages

• Small enterprises on medicinal plants packaging

• 2019-2029:

• Construction of large all-year ski resort

Source: Long-term complex program of socio-economic development of Ust-Koksa district, 2009

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Environmental Concerns

• Generally reduced (in comparison with current state) pressure on wildlife from poaching caused by increased employment and income of local people;

• Increased grazing pressure on summer pastures up to the level of 1985;

• At transport-accessed sites the rate of deforestation will increase by demand of wood-processing industry, however, this negative impact will occur at limited locations of small area.

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Maral (Red deer) farm

Climate Change Global Market

Actors: Local people Institutions

Environment:

-Changes of plant composition, spp richness, … - decrease of the resources of medicinal plants - increase of erosion -change of migrations of wild ungulates -Degradation of surrounding lands (over use)

Socio-economic realm: -Changes of land use (extensive way of farm development) - lands used to be in collective traditional use are in private farm, so people can’t use it for grazing, hayfields, apiaries, collection of medicinal plants - Decrease of income of local people

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Adaptation Strategy - principles • The aim: to maintain ecosystem services of

the territory of Katunskiy BR and to reduce the vulnerability of local communities to global change,

• Guiding principles: • Usage of adaptive management to maintain

flexibility • Monitoring and tracking changes in weather,

hydrology, ecosystems and land use • Identification of possible futures through

modeling • Maintaining the resiliency of ecosystems and

minimizing stress at the core zone • Raising public awareness on the effects of

global change • Implementation of demonstration project on

sustainable use of natural resources in changing conditions

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Adaptation Strategy Objectives

• Further designing of the monitoring program to adequately detect the signals of the effects of climate change and land use onto the natural ecosystems.

• Strengthening the partnerships with research institutions for conducting modeling of changes in hydrology, biodiversity and ecosystems.

• Implementation of connectivity conservation principles . • Development of educational and interpretative programs

on the global change-related issues for different target groups (children, farmers, decision-makers, visitors etc.)

• Implementation of demonstration projects: – alternative energy supply (solar batteries, mini hydropower

schemes) – sustainable tourism (focused on the most stressed areas in

the transition zone) – diversification of vulnerable economies (maral farms).

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Development of monitoring system

• Establishing altitudinal profiles to monitor the dynamics of upper treeline

Monitoring of key biophysical parameters along altitudinal gradients:

•snow depth and water content, •air temperature

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Demonstration project on sustainable tourism

Creation of recreational infrastructure (camping sites) Training for local unemployed people as guides

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Demonstration project on alternative energy supply

• Installation of the solar batteries at the ranger stations of the reserve

Financial support from US Fish and Wildlife Service

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Acknowledgements • UNESCO-MAB

• UNESCO Moscow Office

• Institute of Geography RAS

• Russian MAB Committee

• UNDP-ICI Altai-Sayan Project

• US Fish and Wildlife Service

Thank you for your attention