DOCUMENT OUTPUT WEBINAR PATRICK NIJS BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT MANAGER DIME.
Global change impact on ecosystems Reinhart Ceulemans and Ivan Nijs University of Antwerp,...
-
Upload
nathaniel-sims -
Category
Documents
-
view
212 -
download
0
Transcript of Global change impact on ecosystems Reinhart Ceulemans and Ivan Nijs University of Antwerp,...
Global change impact on ecosystems
Reinhart Ceulemans
and
Ivan NijsUniversity of Antwerp, Department of Biology
(UA-PLECO)
• Impact on ‘structure, function and distribution of ecosystems’ (productivity, control measures, C sequestration)
• Impact on ‘water and hydrology’ (hydrological basins, flow, sensitive fen ecosystems)
• Impact on ‘biodiversity’ (extinction, control measures)
• Interactions ‘ecosystems - CO2 and other
GHG’ (terrestrial sink, land use, soil acidification)
• ‘What drives ecosystem changes ?’ (one or more factors, social ‘drivers’)
C-stocks in terrestrial ecosystems and soil
(F. Veroustraete, VITO and B. Van Wesemael, UCL)
Stocks Per unit area (ton C / ha)
Totals Belgium (kton C)
Forest biomass 94.4 53,800
Humus in forests 61.5 35,000
Soil, 0-30 cm 58 (10-190) 144,000
Soil, 0-100 cm 98 (18-986) 241,000
Fluxes of C - terrestral ecosystems and soil(F. Veroustraete, VITO and B. Van Wesemael, UCL)
Fluxes Per unit area (ton C / ha / year)
Total Belgium (kton C / year)
NEP all vegetation
4.8 14,600
NEP forest accretion
5.0 2,800
Forest felling 2.1 1,200
Soil via management
? 500-800
Terrestrial ecosystems = carbon sink?
• Net ecosystem-productivity (NEP) Belgium: 14,500 kton C per year (1997) (C-Fix model, VITO)
Total amount of C in soil is much larger than in wood and forests
• Geographical link between carbon stock in the soil and vegetation productivity
• Agricultural zones: low soil carbon
• Source: (Lettens et al., 2004) Van Orshoven & Lettens
Evolution of C-sequestration(L. François, ULg)
• Carbon sequestration will increase under global change conditions, but in function of:
(i) age; (ii) changing weather conditions; (iii) forest management.
Plant and animal species disppear today by approximately 1,000 x the natural speed of extinction
climate change
pollution
overhunting and overfishing
habitat-destruction
biological invasions
landscape fragmentation
eutrophication
Population viability analysis
(E. Le Boulangé, UCL)
1775 1973
Lienne vallei, Lierneux
current situation
Model: predicts population size of vulnerable species under different scenarios of change
+ grazing
+ grazing
+ warmer climate
CARAIB model
(Ulg, L. François)
Agricultural area: 50% grassland
Grassland species adapted to a moderate climate
apr may jun jul aug sep
+
-
Growth response to a warmer
climate
“Change is seldom driven by a single
factor”
(H. Geist, UCL)
CO2 concentration: higher
Air temperature: higher
Climate: more extreme
Biodiversity: lower
Invasive exotics: more
Habitat fragmentation: stronger…
interaction?
Exotic invasive plants