GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKET INDEX RETURNS … · • Global capital markets were mixed in March as global...

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1.2 -0.1 -1.7 -2.7 0.0 6.9 0.4 1.4 -2.3 0.1 15.0 1.1 0.3 8.7 0.3 Global Stocks Global Bonds Global Real Estate Commodities Cash 1 Month 3 Months 12 Months GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKET INDEX RETURNS AS OF MARCH 31, 2017 (%) 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 -0.1 6.9 5.3 3.6 2.0 0.4 15.0 11.4 7.9 4.5 1.1 100% Global Stocks 75/25 50/50 25/75 100% Global Bonds 1 Month 3 Months 12 Months HYPOTHETICAL GLOBAL INDEX PORTFOLIO RETURNS AS OF MARCH 31, 2017 (%) Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. All returns represent total returns for the stated period. Asset allocations and the hypothetical index portfolio returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual performance. Index portfolio allocations rebalanced monthly. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Global Stocks (MSCI ACWI Index [net div.]), Global Bonds (Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index [Hedged to USD]), Global Real Estate (S&P Global REIT Index [net div.]), Commodities (Bloomberg Commodity Index), Cash (Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Months US Treasury Bill Index). Index returns from Morningstar. Global capital markets were mixed in March as global stocks posted modestly positive returns while bonds, real estate and commodities all posted slight losses. For the first quarter of 2017 and over the last year, global stocks were the top performer among the major asset classes by a noticeable margin. As displayed below, hypothetical portfolio mixes with larger allocations to stocks, which are generally considered riskier, outperformed more conservative mixes over the last one, three, and 12 months. March 2017

Transcript of GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKET INDEX RETURNS … · • Global capital markets were mixed in March as global...

Page 1: GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKET INDEX RETURNS … · • Global capital markets were mixed in March as global stocks posted modestly positive returns while bonds, real estate and commodities

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GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKET INDEX RETURNSAS OF MARCH 31, 2017 (%)

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HYPOTHETICAL GLOBAL INDEX PORTFOLIO RETURNSAS OF MARCH 31, 2017 (%)

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. All returns represent total returns for the stated period. Asset allocations and the hypothetical index portfolio returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual performance. Index portfolio allocations rebalanced monthly. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Global Stocks (MSCI ACWI Index [net div.]), Global Bonds (Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index [Hedged to USD]), Global Real Estate (S&P Global REIT Index [net div.]), Commodities (Bloomberg Commodity Index), Cash (Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Months US Treasury Bill Index). Index returns from Morningstar.

• Global capital markets were mixed in March as global stocks posted modestly positive returns while bonds, real estate and commodities all posted slight losses.

• For the first quarter of 2017 and over the last year, global stocks were the top performer among the major asset classes by a noticeable margin.

• As displayed below, hypothetical portfolio mixes with larger allocations to stocks, which are generally considered riskier, outperformed more conservative mixes over the last one, three, and 12 months.

March2017

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US STOCK MARKET INDEX RETURNSAS OF MARCH 31, 2017 (%)

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. All returns represent total returns for the stated period. Market segment (index representation) as follows: US Marketwide (Russell 3000 Index), Large Cap (Russell 1000 Index), Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index), Large Value (Russell 1000 Value Index), Large Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index), Small Value (Russell 2000 Value Index), and Small Growth (Russell 2000 Growth Index). Non-US Marketwide (MSCI ACWI ex USA Index), Developed Markets (MSCI World ex USA Index), Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Markets Index), Non-US Value (MSCI ACWI ex USA Value Index), Non-US Growth (MSCI ACWI ex USA Growth Index), Non-US Large Cap (MSCI ACWI ex USA Large Cap Index) Non-US Small Cap (MSCI ACWI ex USA Small Cap Index). All index returns in USD. All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. Index returns from Morningstar.

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NON-US STOCK MARKET INDEX RETURNSAS OF MARCH 31, 2017 (%)

• The broad US equity market finished the first quarter with a slight gain in Marching and ended the quarter up nearly 6%.

• Large and small caps posted similar returns for the month; large caps, however, outperformed by more than 3% for the quarter.

• Value stocks trailed growth again in March and ended the quarter behind by more than 5%, marking a sharp reversal from the fourth quarter of 2016.

• Over the last year, both the size and value premia were significantly positive as small caps handily outperformed large caps as did value stocks relative to growth stocks.

• In US dollar terms, non-US stock markets outperformed US markets in March and for the first quarter.

• Emerging markets matched the performance of developed markets in March but outperformed developed markets for the quarter and over the last year.

• Foreign small caps modestly underperformed large caps for the month; however, they incrementally outperformed for the full first quarter.

• Foreign value stocks slightly lagged their growth counterparts in March and for the quarter; however, they outperformed over the last year.

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US TREASURY YIELD CURVE

FIXED INCOME INDEX RETURNSAS OF MARCH 31, 2017 (%)

3/31/172/28/1711/30/163/31/16

One basis point equals 0.01%. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. All returns represent total returns for the stated period. Market segment (index representation) as follows: US Bonds (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate index), Non-US Bonds (Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex USD [USD Hedged]), Municipal Bonds (Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Index), Short Bonds (Bloomberg Barclays US Short Treasury Index), Long Bonds (Bloomberg Barclays US Long Treasury Index), Treasury Bonds (Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Index), Credit Bonds (Bloomberg Barclays US Credit Index), High Yield Bonds (Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index), TIPS (Bloomberg Barclays US TIPS Index). Yield curve data from Federal Reserve. Index returns data from Morningstar.

• The US Treasury yield curve, which charts interest rates on US Treasury bonds with different maturity dates, modestly flattened but was largely unchanged in March and for the first quarter as rates at the short end of the curve increased slightly inline with Fed monetary policy while longer-term rates held steady.

• Over the last year, the curve shifted upward as rates across the curve increased by 40 to 75 basis points amid the global “reflation trade”.

• As a reminder, the primary driver of returns on high-quality, investment-grade bonds is changes in interest rates which are inversely related to bond prices (i.e., when rates go up, bond prices go down and vice versa).

• Investment grade taxable US and non-US bonds (USD-hedged) posted slight losses in March but were incrementally positive for the first quarter.

• For the month, long-term bonds trailed short-term bonds; however, they outperformed for the quarter.

• Credit spreads modestly widened in March causing investment grade credit and high yield bonds to lag US Treasury bonds marking a reversal of the general trend for the quarter and the year.

• US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) performed in-line with nominal Treasury bonds in March as well as for the quarter.

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GLOBAL ASSET CLASS INDEX RETURNSAS OF MARCH 31, 2017 (%)

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. All returns represent total returns for the stated period. See previous pages for market segment index representations. Index returns from Morningstar.

Global Asset Classes1 Month 3 Months 12 Months 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years

Global Stocks 1.2 6.9 15.0 5.1 8.4 4.0Global Bonds -0.1 0.4 1.1 3.6 3.4 4.3Global Real Estate -1.7 1.4 0.3 6.7 7.9 1.7Commodities -2.7 -2.3 8.7 -13.9 -9.5 -6.2Cash 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.6

Hypothetical Global Index Portfolios1 Month 3 Months 12 Months 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years

Global Portfolios_MMM 100% Global Stocks 1.2 6.9 15.0 5.1 8.4 4.0Global Portfolios_MMM 75/25 0.9 5.3 11.4 4.8 7.2 4.4Global Portfolios_MMM 50/50 0.6 3.6 7.9 4.5 6.0 4.6Global Portfolios_MMM 25/75 0.3 2.0 4.5 4.1 4.8 4.5Global Portfolios_MMM 100% Global Bonds -0.1 0.4 1.1 3.6 3.4 4.3

US Stocks1 Month 3 Months 12 Months 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years

Marketwide 0.1 5.7 18.1 9.8 13.2 7.5Large Cap 0.1 6.0 17.4 10.0 13.3 7.6Small Cap 0.1 2.5 26.2 7.2 12.4 7.1Large Value -1.0 3.3 19.2 8.7 13.1 5.9Large Growth 1.2 8.9 15.8 11.3 13.3 9.1Small Value -0.9 -0.1 29.4 7.6 12.5 6.1Small Growth 1.2 5.4 23.0 6.7 12.1 8.1

Non-US Stocks1 Month 3 Months 12 Months 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years

Marketwide 2.5 7.9 13.1 0.6 4.4 1.4Developed Markets 2.5 6.8 11.9 0.4 5.4 1.1Emerging Markets 2.5 11.5 17.2 1.2 0.8 2.7Non-US Large Cap 2.6 7.8 13.8 0.3 4.1 1.3Non-US Small Cap 2.1 8.8 12.3 2.5 6.7 3.0Non-US Value 2.3 6.7 16.7 -0.5 3.8 0.7Non-US Growth 2.8 9.1 9.6 1.6 4.8 2.0

Fixed Income1 Month 3 Months 12 Months 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years

US Bonds -0.1 0.8 0.4 2.7 2.3 4.3Non-US Bonds -0.1 0.1 1.4 4.3 4.2 4.3Municipal Bonds 0.2 1.6 0.2 3.6 3.2 4.3Short Bonds 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.9Long Bonds -0.6 1.4 -5.0 5.8 4.0 6.7Treasury Bonds -0.1 0.7 -1.4 2.1 1.6 3.9Credit Bonds -0.2 1.3 3.0 3.5 3.7 5.3High Yield Bonds -0.2 2.7 16.4 4.6 6.8 7.5TIPS -0.1 1.3 1.5 2.0 1.0 4.2

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not ensure against market risk.

Stock Investment Risk

Stock investing may involve risk including loss of principal.

Investing in stock includes numerous specific risks including: the fluctuation of dividend, loss of principal and potential illiquidity of the investment in a falling market.

Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limitedto, currency risk, geopolitical risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.

Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged.

Bond Investment Risk

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond and bond mutual fund values and yields will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors.

Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other stateand local taxes may apply.

Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are notlimited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards.

Alternative Investments Risk

Alternative strategies may not be suitable for all investors and should be considered as an investment for the risk capital portion of the investor's portfolio. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.

Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained.

Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, geopolitical events, and regulatory developments.

~~~~~~~~~~Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Private Advisor Group, a Registered Investment Advisor. Private Advisor Group and Kathmere Capital Management are separate entities from LPL Financial.

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INDEX DESCRIPTIONS

Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Months US Treasury Bill Index includes all publicly issued zero-coupon U.S. Treasury Bills that have a remaining maturity of less than 3 months and more than 1 month, are rated investment grade, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value. In addition, the securities must be denominated in U.S. dollars and must be fixed rate andnon convertible.

Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index measures the performance of global investment-grade debt from twenty-four local currency markets. This multi-currency benchmark includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds from both developed and emerging markets issuers.

Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex USD Index (USD-Hedged) measures the performance of all global investment-grade debt from the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index excluding securities issues in US dollars. Returns are hedged to the US dollar.

Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax-exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and pre-refunded bonds.

Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment-grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS, and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below.

Bloomberg Barclays US Credit Index measures the investment-grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, taxable corporate and government-related bond markets.

Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Index measures US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, nominal debt issued by the US Treasury. Treasury bills are excluded by the maturity constraint, but are part of a separate Short Treasury Index.

Bloomberg Barclays US Short Treasury Index includes aged U.S. Treasury bills, notes and bonds with a remaining maturity from 1 up to (but not including) 12 months.

Bloomberg Barclays US Long Treasury Index measures the performance of US dollar-denominated, fixe—rate, nominal debt issued by the US Treasury with a maturity greater than 10 years.

Bloomberg Barclays US TIPS Index is a rules-based, market value-weighted index that tracks inflation-protected securities issued by the U.S. Treasury.

Bloomberg Commodity Index is calculated on an excess return basis and composed of futures contracts on 22 physical commodities. It reflects the return of underlying commodity futures price movements.

Page 7: GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKET INDEX RETURNS … · • Global capital markets were mixed in March as global stocks posted modestly positive returns while bonds, real estate and commodities

INDEX DESCRIPTIONS

MSCI ACWI Index is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. The MSCI ACWI consists of 46 country indexes comprising 23 developed and 23 emerging markets country indexes.

MSCI ACWI ex USA Index captures large and mid cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries (excluding the US) and 23 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. With 1,854 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the US

MSCI ACWI ex USA Growth Index captures large and mid cap securities exhibiting overall growth style characteristics across 22 Developed Markets (DM) countries and 23 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The growth investment style characteristics for index construction are defined using five variables: long-term forward EPS growth rate, short-term forward EPS growth rate, current internal growth rate and long-term historical EPS growth trend and long-term historical sales per share growth trend.

MSCI ACWI ex USA Value Index captures large and mid cap securities exhibiting overall value style characteristics across 22 Developed and 23 Emerging Markets countries. The value investment style characteristics for index construction are defined using three variables: book value to price, 12-month forward earnings to price and dividend yield.

MSCI ACWI Ex USA Small Cap Index captures small cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries (excluding the US) and 23 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 15% of the global equity opportunity set outside the US.

MSCI ACWI Ex USA Large Index captures large cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries (excluding the US) and 21 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 70% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of 23 emerging markets country indexes.

MSCI World ex USA Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of 22 of the 23 developed markets included the MSCI World Index (excluding the US).

Russell 1000 Index measures the performance of the 1,000 largest companies in the Russell 3000® Index, which represents approximately 90% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.

Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price/book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.

Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price/book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.

Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index, which represents approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.

Russell 2000 Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with higher price/book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.

Russell 2000 Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with lower price/book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.

Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the 3,000 largest U.S. companies based on total market capitalization, which represents approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.

S&P Global REIT Index is a comprehensive benchmark of publicly traded equity REITs listed in both developed and emerging markets.