Global Cable: Market trends & business models 7...3% of the French population use myTF1 but didn’t...
Transcript of Global Cable: Market trends & business models 7...3% of the French population use myTF1 but didn’t...
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© A
mpere
An
aly
sis
2017
Understanding the Future of Entertainment
Global Cable: Market trends & business models
Guy Bisson, Ampere Analysis
January 2018
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mpere
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Understanding the Future of Entertainment
Chile
Latvia
Lithuania
Switzerland
Norway
IsraelHungary
Canada
Brazil
Netherlands
China
SwedenPortugal
Romania Singapore
Belgium
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Japan
Denmark
Nigeria
Bulgaria
USA
Croatia
Ireland
Australia
Hong_Kong
South_Korea
Russia
SpainTurkey
Malta
Slovak_Republic
Germany
Mexico
Poland
UK
Colombia
Thailand
Peru
Finland
Estonia
India
Slovenia
France
Austria
Argentina
Czech_Republic
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Cab
le T
V p
enet
rati
on
Multi-play monthly ARPU ($)
Cable TV penetration vs Multi-play ARPU (2005)
2005: Cable TV drove market with multiple high penetration/low ARPU markets
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mpere
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2017
Understanding the Future of Entertainment
Chile
Latvia
Lithuania
Switzerland
Norway
Israel
Hungary
Canada
Brazil
Netherlands
China
Sweden
Portugal
Romania
Singapore
Belgium
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Japan
Denmark
Nigeria
Bulgaria
USA
CroatiaIreland
AustraliaHong_Kong
South_KoreaRussia
SpainTurkey
Malta
Slovak_Republic
Germany
MexicoPoland
UK
ColombiaThailand
Peru
Finland
EstoniaIndia
Slovenia
France
AustriaArgentina
Czech_Republic
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Cab
le T
V p
enet
rati
on
Multi-play monthly ARPU ($)
Cable TV penetration vs Multi-play ARPU (2016)
Today, penetration has dropped, but ARPU has grown substantially
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An
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Understanding the Future of Entertainment
Chile
Latvia
Kenya
Lithuania
Norway
IsraelHungary
Canada
Brazil
NetherlandsChina
Sweden
Portugal
Romania
Singapore
Belgium
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Japan
Bulgaria
Denmark
Nigeria
Mexico
USA
Croatia
Ireland
Australia
Hong_KongSouth_Korea
Russia
Spain
Turkey
Angola
Slovak_Republic
Germany
Poland
UK
Colombia
Switzerland
Peru
Finland
Estonia
India
Slovenia
Thailand
France
Austria
Czech_Republic
Argentina
Malta
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Cab
le s
har
e o
f p
ay T
V
Largest cable operator share of cable
Cable consolidation and cable pay TV positioning
Poland post MM Polska combination
High Consolidation & strong cable pay TV
position
Low consolidation & weak cable pay TV
position
Low consolidation & strong cable pay TV
position
High consolidation & weak cable pay TV
position
Consolidation monitor: Largest cable co share of cable TV RGUs by country
Great place to be!
Great place for
consolidation
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Broadband: key ARPU contributor = to 50% of blended average income in CEE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Global WesternEurope
CEE Asia Pacific MENA
Mo
nth
ly A
RP
U (
$)
ARPU contribution by service (2016)
Pay TV Fixed-line Broadband Fixed Telephony
41.82% 44.59%34.46% 33.24%
45.65%
29.07%35.63%
50.40%
14.26%
30.75%
29.12%19.78% 15.14%
52.50%
23.60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Global WesternEurope
CEE Asia Pacific MENA
AR
PU
co
ntr
ibu
tio
n (
%)
ARPU contribution by service (2016)
Pay TV Fixed-line Broadband Fixed Telephony
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An
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2017
Understanding the Future of Entertainment
UAE
Saudi_ArabiaAlgeria
Luxembourg
Portugal
Australia
Malaysia
Tunisia
Malta
New_Zealand
Israel
USA
Greece
BrazilMorocco
Egypt
Chile
Argentina
Lithuania
UKFranceAustria
Russia
Slovak_Republic
Japan
Ireland
Sweden
Finland
Thailand
Spain
Switzerland
Poland
Croatia
Denmark
Romania
South_Africa
Lebanon
Turkey
Mexico
Canada
GermanyEstonia
Colombia
Italy
Belgium
NorwayNetherlands
SloveniaBulgaria
Czech_Republic
Hungary
Latvia
Peru
ChinaIndia
Kenya
Cyprus
Syria
Jordan
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
- 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0
Broadband speed (Mbps) vs Penetration (#/100 HH)
Broadband speed and penetration are largely in step around the world
Analysis based on Ampere Analysis and Akamai State of the Internet
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44
%
37
%
34
%
30
%
30
%
29
%
26
%
26
%
26
%
24
%
24
%
23
%
22
%
22
%
SaudiArabia
Turkey Brazil Italy USA Poland Denmark UK Germany Sweden Australia Spain France Netherlands
Broadband subs – chose broadband service because of speed (%)
But speed becomes less important to consumers once it reaches a certain rate
Speed is more likely to be a limiting factor for use of service in infrastructure-poor markets - it becomes a more important criterion for selecting a provider than in
developed markets where small price differences are more relevant to consumers than the difference between (for instance) 35Mbps and 45Mbps
Improving broadband infrastructure
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Mobile data usage is
growing rapidly in fixed
infrastructure-poor markets
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Global mobile data traffic - aggregate, PB/month
APAC CEMA LAM NAM WE
Source: Ericsson Mobility
Mobile data volumes are climbing worldwide –driven primarily by Asia, but with other regions
responsible for significant volume. CEMA (Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and
Africa) is already responsible for nearly a fifth of global mobile data traffic.
2.2
2
6.8
0
2.0
8
2.3
3
3.4
9
LAM NAM APAC CEMA WE
Traffic per smartphone – GB/month
Per device volumes remain highest in North America and Europe, but usage is closing fast in APAC, CEMA and LAM
17x increase in 5 years
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13%15% 16%
20% 20%23%
24% 25% 25% 26%
30%
39%
47%
63%
25%
34%
45% 44%
31%
41%
46% 44%
37%
42%
49%
64%
55% 56%
Germany France Poland UK Netherlands Australia Spain Italy Sweden Denmark USA Brazil Turkey SaudiArabia
Internet users watching online video daily on smartphone or PC/TV (% of respondents, Q3 2017)
Smartphone PC or TV
And this infrastructure variation reflected in online video viewing medium
Smartphone viewing becomes proportionally more important for Internet users in markets such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, where
fixed broadband is typically of lower quality/speed than in Western European markets. In Western markets such as the UK,
France or Germany, consumers are much more likely to rely on PCs or Smart TVs for streaming content than they are smartphones.
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Broadcasters are regaining ‘lost’ audience reach through OTT offerings…
Watched BBC channels +
iPlayer in last month – 56%
Watched BBC channels in last
month: 77%
Watched iPlayer only in last month – 7%
Of UK internet users, 77% (self-reported) watched BBC channels in the month preceding the Q3 2017 Ampere survey. 56% watched iPlayer. 7% watched iPlayer but not BBC channels, indicating that the catch-up service
could be delivering a 9% audience reach boost over and above the broadcast channels alone.
Watched TF1
channels + myTF1 in
last month –24%
Watched TF1 channels in last
month: 73%
Watched myTF1 only in last month – 3%
In France, MyTF1 delivers a 4% audience reach boost –3% of the French population use myTF1 but didn’t watch
the group’s broadcast channels in the month prior to responding to the Q3 survey.
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…and are more effectively reaching older consumers than other OTT services
16%
17%
19%
21%
24%
31%
27%
28%
28%
34%
26%
24%
23%
23%
24%
18%
20%
19%
18%
13%
10%
11%
11%
9%
6%
TV Everywhere
Catch-up
SVoD
Social Video
Pirate
14 global markets: Share of monthly users, by age (%)
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
17%
18%
20%
22%
25%
28%
26%
28%
28%
33%
25%
24%
23%
23%
26%
19%
20%
18%
18%
12%
10%
12%
10%
9%
5%
TV Everywhere
Catch-up
SVoD
Social Video
Pirate
Europe: Share of monthly users, by age (%)
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
Catch-up and operator-led TV Everywhere services are more effectively reaching older consumers than social video and SVoD players
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mpere
An
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2017
Understanding the Future of Entertainment
Significant differences in
terms of broadcast viewing
by age bracket
12:00:00 AM
12:14:24 AM
12:28:48 AM
12:43:12 AM
12:57:36 AM
1:12:00 AM
1:26:24 AM
1:40:48 AM
6am - 9am 9am - 12pm 12pm - 2pm 2pm-5pm 5pm-8pm 8pm-12am 12am-6am
France example: Time spent viewing broadcast TV, by age bracket (self-reported), h:m:s
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
• Unsurprisingly, older French
consumers are more avid viewers of
broadcast content, while younger
consumers watch the least broadcast
TV
The youngest consumer group watches the least broadcast TV during prime-time, with older consumers – particularly those in the 55-64
bracket, heaviest viewers of broadcast TV.
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2017
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On-demand more
effectively reaching
younger brackets,
extending prime-time
12:00:00 AM
12:07:12 AM
12:14:24 AM
12:21:36 AM
12:28:48 AM
12:36:00 AM
12:43:12 AM
6am - 9am 9am - 12pm 12pm - 2pm 2pm-5pm 5pm-8pm 8pm-12am 12am-6am
France example: Time spent viewing on-demand TV, by age bracket (self-reported), h:m:s
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
• On-demand service viewing has less of
a prime-time peak than scheduled
broadcast TV, and younger age
brackets watch substantially more
VoD.
• Prime-time is effectively extended, as
VoD aids viewing flexibility – peaks on
mobile devices during lunchtime,
particularly among younger viewers.
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219 216 218 225 225242 242 241 232 220 216 212
3 5
9 11 1416
18 20 21
2 47 11 18
1 22 5
7 8 12 18 22 26 32
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK: Minutes per person per day of viewing, by platform (mins/person/day)
Broadcast Catch-up SVoD Other
This means that online viewing tends to be (partly) complementary
Source: BARB, Zenith, Ampere models and estimates. Note, YouTube and Facebook estimates are indicative only.
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484
531 549580
513
607
666693 694
672642 624
593560
538 523 510490
153 154 157 159 163 164 160 161 155 148 148 141 134 128 123 120 117 115
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Sweden – commercial TV revenue (€m), relative to minutes of TV viewed (#/capita/day)
Ad revenue TV viewing
But changes in viewing patterns do eventually feed through to revenue
Source: MMS, Group M, Ampere models and estimates.
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mpere
An
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2017
Understanding the Future of Entertainment
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