2012 Global

Carbon Budget

Published on 3 December 2012 PowerPoint version 2 (released 20 May 2013)

Contributors (35 people from 10 countries) Corinne Le Quéré (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom)

Glen Peters (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Norway)

Robbie Andrew (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Norway)

Bob Andres (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee, United States)

Tom Boden (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee, United States)

Thomas Conway (National Oceanic & Atmosphere Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL), Colorado, United States)

Skee Houghton (Woods Hole Research Centre (WHRC), United States)

Jo House (Cabot Institute, Department of Geography, University of Bristol, United Kingdom)

Gregg Marland (Research Institute for Environment, Energy, and Economics, Appalachian State University, North Carolina, United States)

Guido van der Werf (VU University Amsterdam, Netherlands)

Anders Ahlström (Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sweden)

Laurent Bopp (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France)

Pep Canadell (Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia)

Philippe Ciais (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France)

Scott Doney (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), United States)

Clare Enright (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom)

Pierre Friedlingstein (University of Exeter, United Kingdom)

Chris Huntingford (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), United Kingdom)

Atul Jain (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, United States)

Charlotte Jourdain (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom)

Etsushi Kato (Center for Global Environmental Research (CGER), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan)

Ralph Keeling (University of California - San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, California, United States)

Kees Klein Goldewijk (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, The Netherlands)

Samuel Levis (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Colorado, United States)

Peter Levy (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), United Kingdom)

Mark Lomas (Centre for Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics (CTCD), Sheffield University, United Kingdom)

Ben Poulter (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France)

Mike Raupach (Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia)

Jörg Schwinger (Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen & Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway)

Stephen Sitch (University of Exeter, United Kingdom)

Benjamin Stocker (Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland)

Nicolas Viovy (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France)

Charlie Wilson (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom)

Soenke Zaehle (Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, Jena, Germany)

Ning Zeng (Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, United States)

Publications

Corinne Le Quéré

C.Lequere@uea.ac.uk

Glen Peters

glen.peters@cicero.uio.no

More information, data sources and data files at

www.globalcarbonproject.org

Unit Conversions

All the data is shown in PgC

1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1×1015g = 1 billion metric tonnes = 1 gigatonne (Gt)

1 kg carbon (C) = 3.67 kg carbon dioxide (CO2)

1 PgC = 3.67 billion tonnes CO2 = 3.67 GtCO2

Observed Emissions

versus

Emission Scenarios

Fossil and Cement Emissions

Global fossil and cement emissions: 9.5±0.5PgC in 2011, 54% over 1990

Projection for 2012: 9.7±0.5PgC, 58% over 1990

Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range)

Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Le Quéré et al. 2012; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2012

Observed Emissions and Emission Scenarios

Emissions are heading to a 4.0-6.1ºC “likely” increase in temperature

Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC

Linear interpolation is used between individual datapoints

Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Global Carbon Project 2012;

Observed Emissions and Emission Scenarios

The IPCC has been associated with four generations of emission scenarios

Main periods of use: SA90 (1990-1992, not shown), IS92 (1992-2000), SRES (2000-2012), RCPs (2012+)

Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Global Carbon Project 2012

Observed Emissions and Emission Scenarios

Observed emissions (X) continue to track the top-end of all scenarios (●)

Crosses (X) : Historical emissions growth over the period in horizontal axis

Circles (●) : Scenario emissions growth over the period in horizontal axis

Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Global Carbon Project 2012

Keeping below 2ºC

Challenges to keep below 2ºC

An emission pathway with a “likely chance” to keep the temperature increase

below 2ºC has significant challenges

Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Global Carbon Project 2012

Short-term

• Reverse emission trajectory

• Emissions peak by 2020

Medium-term

• Sustain emission trajectory

• Around 3%/yr reductions globally

Long-term

• Net negative emissions

• Unproven technologies

Previous CO2 emission reductions

Without climate policies, some countries have reduced emissions at 1-5%/yr

Repeating with modern low-carbon technologies can “kick-start” mitigation

Grey areas are: World War I, Great Depression, World War II, oil shocks

Source: Peters et al. 2012a; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2012

Belgium

Increased Nuclear

Reduced Oil

Sweden

Increased Nuclear

Reduced Oil

France

Increased Nuclear

Reduced Oil & Coal

United Kingdom

Coal to gas

Reduced Oil

Increased Nuclear

The recent shift from coal to gas in the USA

The recent shift from coal to gas in the US could “kick start” mitigation

To keep below 2ºC requires a shift to technologies with lower emissions

Grey areas are: World War I, Great Depression, World War II, oil shocks

Source: Peters et al. 2012a; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2012

Fossil and Cement Emissions

Fossil and Cement Emissions

Global fossil and cement emissions: 9.5±0.5PgC in 2011, 54% over 1990

Projection for 2012: 9.7±0.5PgC, 58% over 1990

Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range)

Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Le Quéré et al. 2012; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2012

Fossil and Cement Emissions Growth 2011

Emissions growth in 2011 was dominated by China

China was responsible for 80% of the global emissions growth in 2011

For comparison, Germany emitted a total of 0.2PgC in 2011

Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

Carbon Intensity of Economic Activity

The global financial crisis of 2008/2009 had no lasting effect on emissions

Carbon intensity has not improved with increased economic activity since 2005

Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Le Quéré et al. 2012; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2012

Emissions from coal, oil, gas, cement

Emissions growth 2000-2011: coal (4.9%/yr), oil (1.1%/yr), gas (2.7%/yr),

cement (6.9%/yr), flaring (4.3%/yr, not shown)

Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

Share of global

emissions in 2011

Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)

Top four emitters in 2011 covered 62% of global emissions

China (28%), United States (16%), EU27 (11%), India (7%)

The growing gap between EU27 and USA is due to emission decreases in Germany (45% of the

1990-2011 cumulative difference), UK (19%), Romania (13%), Czech Republic (8%), and Poland (5%)

Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita)

World average per capita emissions in 2011 were 1.4tC/p

China (1.8tC/p), United States (4.7tC/p), EU27 (2.0tC/p), India (0.5tC/p)

Chinese per capita emissions are almost equal to the EU27, and 36% higher than the global average

Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

Annex B versus non-Annex B Countries

Annex B countries have emission reduction commitments in the Kyoto Protocol

Annex B countries do not necessarily have highest economic activity per capita

Source: CDIAC Data; Unstats; Global Carbon Project 2012

Key Statistics

Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

Region/Country

Per capita

emissions

2011

Total emissions

2011

Emissions growth

2011

(tonnes C/p) (PgC, % of global) (PgC/yr, %/yr)

Global (with bunkers) 1.4 9.5 0.28 (3.0%)

Global (no bunkers) 1.3 9.1 0.30 (3.5%)

Developed Countries (Annex B)

Annex B 3.0 3.6 (40%) -0.026 (-0.7%)

United States of America 4.7 1.5 (16%) -0.028 (-1.8%)

EU27 2.0 1.0 (11%) -0.029 (-2.8%)

Russian Federation 3.2 0.46 (5.1%) 0.013 (2.9%)

Japan 2.6 0.32 (3.6%) 0.001 (0.4%)

Germany 2.5 0.20 (2.2%) -0.008 (-3.6%)

Developing Countries (non-Annex B)

Non-Annex B 0.9 5.4 (60%) 0.329 (6.5%)

China 1.8 2.5 (28%) 0.226 (9.9%)

India 0.5 0.62 (6.8%) 0.043 (7.5%)

Iran 2.3 0.17 (1.9%) 0.003 (1.9%)

South Korea 3.3 0.16 (1.7%) 0.006 (3.7%)

South Africa 2.8 0.14 (1.6%) 0.002 (1.5%)

Consumption-based

Emissions

Consumption-based emissions allocate emissions to the location that goods

and services are consumed

Consumption-based emissions = Production/Territorial-based emissions

minus emission embodied in exports plus the emissions embodied in imports

Territorial emissions as per the Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol is based on the global distribution of emissions in 1990

The global distribution of emissions is now starkly different

Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

Share of global

emissions in 2010

In 2011:

• Annex B 40%

• Non-Annex B 60%

Consumption emissions as per the Kyoto Protocol

Consumption-based emissions =

Territorial emissions plus imported emissions minus exported emissions

Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Peters et al 2011; Global Carbon Project 2012

Share of global

territorial emissions

Annex B 58%

Non-Annex B 42%

Consumption emissions as per the Kyoto Protocol

The net emissions transfers into Annex B countries (black line) more than

offsets the Annex B emission reductions achieved within the Kyoto Protocol

In Annex B, production/territorial-based emissions have had a slight decrease, consumption-based

emissions have grown at 0.5%/yr, and emission transfers have grown at 10%/yr Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Peters et al 2011; Global Carbon Project 2012

Territorial: Dark lines

Consumption: Light lines

Major flows from Production to Consumption

Start of Arrow: fossil-fuel consumption (production)

End of arrow: goods and services consumption

Values for 2007. EU27 is treated as one region. Units: TgC=PgC/1000

Source: Peters et al 2012b

Major flows from Extraction to Consumption

Start of Arrow: fossil-fuel extraction

End of arrow: goods and services consumption

Values for 2007. EU27 is treated as one region. Units: TgC=PgC/1000

Source: Peters et al 2012b

Arrow scaling different in previous figure

Alternative measures of “Responsibility”

Depending on perspective, the importance of individual countries changes

Cumulative emissions from 1751; Production is also called Territorial; GDP: Gross Domestic Product

Source: CDIAC Data; Unstats; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

Land-Use Change Emissions

Land-Use Change Emissions

Global land-use change emissions: 0.9±0.5PgC in 2011

The data suggests a general decrease in emissions since 1990

Black line: Includes management-climate interactions; Thin line: Previous estimate

Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

Peat fires

Total Global Emissions

Total global emissions: 10.4±0.7PgC in 2011, 37% over 1990

Percentage land-use change: 36% in 1960, 18% in 1990, 9% in 2011

Land-use change black line: Includes management-climate interactions

Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

Total Global Emissions and Scenarios

Fossil and cement emissions dominate in most scenarios

RCP-3PD (blue) has net negative emissions

Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

Closing the Carbon Budget

Anthropogenic Perturbation of the Global Carbon Cycle

Perturbation of the global carbon cycle caused by anthropogenic activities,

averaged globally for the decade 2002–2011 (PgC/yr)

Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

Global Carbon Budget

Emissions to the atmosphere are balanced by the sinks

Averaged sinks since 1959: 44% atmosphere, 28% land, 28% ocean

The dashed land-use change line does not include management-climate interactions

The land sink was a source in 1987 and 1998 (1997 visible as an emission)

Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2002-2011 average)

Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

8.3±0.4 PgC/yr 90%

+ 1.0±0.5 PgC/yr 10%

2.6±0.8 PgC/yr

28% Calculated as the residual

of all other flux components

4.3±0.1 PgC/yr

46%

26% 2.5±0.5 PgC/yr

Changes in the Global Carbon Budget over Time

The sinks have continued to grow with increasing emissions

It is uncertain how efficient the sinks will be in the future

Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

Atmospheric Concentration

The pre-industrial (1750) atmospheric concentration was 278ppm

This has increased to 390ppm in 2011, a 40% increase

“Seasonally corrected” is a moving average of seven adjacent seasonal cycles

Source: NOAA/ESRL; Global Carbon Project 2012

References used in this presentation

Global Carbon Project (2012) More information, data sources and data files at www.globalcarbonproject.org

G. Peters, R. Andrew, T. Boden, J. Canadell, P. Ciais, C. Le Quéré, G. Marland, M. Raupach, C. Wilson (2012a), “The

challenge to keep global warming below 2ºC” Nature Climate Change, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1783,

DOI:10.1038/nclimate1783

C. Le Quéré, R. Andres, T. Boden, T. Conway, R. Houghton, J. House, G. Marland, G. Peters, G. van der Werf, A.

Ahlström, R. Andrew, L. Bopp, J. Canadell, P. Ciais, S. Doney, C. Enright, P. Friedlingstein, C. Huntingford, A. Jain, C.

Jourdain, E. Kato, R. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, S. Levis, P. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, M. Raupach, J. Schwinger, S.

Sitch, B. Stocker, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle and N. Zeng (2012), “The Global Carbon Budget 1959–2011”, Earth System Science

Data Discussions (in review), http://www.earth-syst-sci-data-discuss.net/5/1107/2012, DOI:10.5194/essdd-5-1107-2012

T. Boden, G. Marland, R. Andres, “Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions in Trends”, Carbon Dioxide

Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html, DOI:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_V2012

T. Conway, P. Tans (2012), “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”, National Oceanic & Atmosphere Administration,

Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL), http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

G. Peters, J, Minx, C. Weber, O. Edenhofer, O (2011), “Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 to

2008”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, www.pnas.org/content/108/21/8903.abstract,

DOI:10.1073/pnas.1006388108.

G. Peters, S. Davis, R. Andrew (2012b), “A synthesis of carbon in international trade”, Biogeosciences,.

http://www.biogeosciences.net/9/3247/2012/bg-9-3247-2012.html, DOI:10.5194/bg-9-3247-2012

Funding

This work was made possible thanks to support from our home organisations and funding from:

and from the sponsors of the Global Carbon Project (images clickable):

UK Natural Environment Research Council

Norwegian Research Council

US Department of Energy

US National Science Foundation

Australian Climate Change Science Program

European Union Seventh Framework Programme

The Leverhulme Trust, UK

Ministry of Environment of Japan

European Research Council

Swiss National Science Foundation

Mistra-SWECIA, Sweden