Glencore Interim Results 2012833e49b4-4250-4d90-aa74...2012/08/21 · Glencore Interim Results 2012...
Transcript of Glencore Interim Results 2012833e49b4-4250-4d90-aa74...2012/08/21 · Glencore Interim Results 2012...
Glencore Interim Results 201221 August 2012
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Ivan Glasenberg
Chief Executive Officer
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H1 2012 Highlights
Financial results supported by strong marketing performance
Adjusted EBIT $2.5bn, 24% down H1 2012 vs. H1 2011, but up 20% sequentially
– Annualised H1 2012 closely tracking FY 2011 result
– Marketing EBIT $1.12bn, down 11% on H1 2011. Energy results were below the relatively strong prior year period, offsetting the stronger performances in metals and agriculture
– Industrial EBIT down 32% to $1.4bn on H1 2011 due to materially lower average metals prices. Sequentially flat EBIT (including associates), but for consolidated operations up some 30% due to strong volume growth, particularly oil
Strong cash flow generation, with funds from operations of $1.9bn, and an Adjusted EBITDA interest cover in excess of 7.0x
Abundant liquidity with $9.0bn of committed headroom and no material refinancings in the next 12 months
Sector leading growth pipeline remains overall on time and on budget
Interim dividend of 5.4 cents per share, an 8% increase over H1 2011
– Reflects confidence in our commodity diversification, the robustness of Marketing, visibility on our brownfield assets ramp-up and the Group’s strong balance sheet
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633 609688
552
145
350
92
(100)
114
(26)
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(37)
(200)
0
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1,200
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H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012
Solid underlying profitability in marketing against a challenging economic backdrop
Metals and Minerals
Strong performance driven by increased volumes and robust premia for physical delivery of key metals
Improved profitability, 9% year-on-year and 13% sequentially
Energy
Fewer arbitrage opportunities in energy compared to H1 2011 as a result of reduced volatility in oil and coal markets and weaker freight environment
Strongly improved profitability vs. H2 2011
Agricultural Products
Grain and oilseed volumes maintained growth trend in H1 2012, with oilseed volumes, in particular, up substantially versus H1 2011
Improved market fundamentals in key commodities since May
Profitability improved 24% year-on-year and reversion to profit sequentially, with cotton issues now firmly behind us.
H1 Financial Performance – Marketing Activities
AgricultureMetals and Minerals Energy Corporate
Adjusted EBIT H1 2012 vs. H1 2011 and H2 2011
(10.9%)1,251
1,115
660
68.9%
(US$ m)
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950
407 399
211
164 345
(17) (22) (11)
660886
908
(200)
500
1,200
1,900
2,600
H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012
1,345
777 832
305
266528
13
10
21
660
908
886
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012
H1 Financial Performance – Industrial Activities
Core growth projects continue to deliver and remain on track and within budget
Metals and Minerals
EBIT reduction compared to 2011 primarily driven by the negative impact of sovereign and macroeconomic concerns on metal prices
Production performance ahead of schedule at Mutanda, offset by some ramp-up delays at Katanga and Kazzinc
Flat sequential performance
Energy
Substantially improved performance with EBIT up 64% on 2011 driven by first full half year of production from the Aseng oil field and to a lesser extent, strong coal volume growth
Agricultural Products
Results affected by sugar cane harvest delays
Adjusted EBIT H1 2012 vs. H1 2011 and H2 2011(US$ m)
(32.1%)2,052
1,393
AgricultureMetals and Minerals Energy Corporate (Including Xstrata)
1,435 (2.9%)
Adjusted EBITDA H1 2012 vs. H1 2011 and H2 2011(US$ m)
2,571
2,0411,939
(20.6%)
5.3%
5
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H1 Operating Performance – Industrial Activities
Metals & Minerals
Primarily due to lower metal prices, Adjusted EBITDA for the period was $832m, down 38% compared to H1 2011, but up 7% from H2 2011
Growth strategy to establish high quality, large scale, long life and low cost assets remains on track with significant future planned growth in own source copper volumes and gold
Production from own sources
Zinc: down 12% to 258kt
Copper: flat at 170kt
Gold: down 4% to 365ktoz (1)
Energy Products
Substantially improved performance during H1 2012 on the back of the oil E&P operations with 11.0m bbls produced from Aseng during the period
Adjusted EBITDA for H1 2012 was $528m, up 73% compared to $305m in H1 2011
Prodeco production up 12% to 7.9mt but lower realised coal prices impacted profitability
Additional contribution from South African coal following the Optimum, Umcebo and Shanduka Coal transactions
Agricultural Products
Total production and processing up 9% to 3.0mt
Significant headway with Viterra approvals; only MOFCOM outstanding
Commenced operations at two softseed crushing plants at Usti, Czech Republic and Bodaczow, Poland which were acquired in late 2011
Results impacted by Brazilian sugar crop harvest delays
Notes: (1) Includes gold equivalents (silver) at a gold/silver conversion ratio of 1/53.16 and 1/41.09 for H1 2012 and H1 2011 respectively based on average prices.
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2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Mopani E&P Prodeco Kazzinc Katanga Mutanda Capex
Organic Growth – Glencore’s Own Production
Cu Equivalent Production Volume and Capex(100% basis)
Approved Expansion Projects:
2012E – 2015E CAGR 18.4%
Note: Excludes growth pipeline in agricultural segment, including Viterra
US$ mk MT
Capex for named assets
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Key Growth Assets – Continued Progressive Ramp-Up
Katanga
Kazzinc Gold and silver production from own sources in H1 2012 were higher than H1 2011 by 13% and 15% respectively
Reflects the ramp up at Altyntau Kokshetau and an increase in gold recovered from the lead smelter
– Operational review process (nearing completion) to de-bottleneck and increase production by H2 2013
Zinc, lead and copper production from own sources in H1 2012 were lower than in H1 2011
New copper smelter remains in ramp-up phase and now operating at 80% of design capacity
– Expected to reach design capacity in H1 2013
233207
H1 2011 H1 2012Gold
Own production (ktoz)
4343
H1 2011 H1 2012
12.5%
nil
Copper produced in metal and concentrate in H1 2012 was 43kt, with copper metal production increasing by 12% during the H1 2012
Ore mined and milled increased by 8% and 13% respectively
Copper production flat primarily due to power outages resulting in equivalent 28 days of lost production
Phase IV now in process with completion expected on time in 2013. Replicates proven technology already in use at Mutanda Copper
Own production (kt)
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7,9447,093
H1 2011 H1 2012
12.0%
Key Growth Assets – Continued Progressive Ramp-up
Prodeco
E&P
Mutanda
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H1 2011 H1 2012Copper
Own production (kt)
Completion of additional SX/EW circuits in Q2 2012 resulted in significant copper cathode ramp up in H1 2012
– Copper cathode production 153% higher than H1 2011 at 36kt
Copper production (metal and in concentrate) up 48%
Feasibility study underway for 100kt sulphide concentrator, expected to be completed during Q1 2013
During H1 2012, increased interest in Mutanda from 40% to 60% with an option to purchase an additional 20% interest in December 2013
– Significant step in stated strategy of merging Mutanda and Kansuki
Mutanda / Kansuki on track to produce 200kt per annum by end 2013
First production from the Aseng field achieved in November 2011
– Gross oil production achieved to the end of H1 2012 was 11.0m bbls, an average daily rate of 61,000 bbls/day
Development of the Alen field in Equatorial Guinea remains on schedule for first production in Q3 2013
Glencore's first operated exploration well, Oak-1x, successfully drilled in the Bolongo licence (Glencore interest: 100%) offshore Cameroon during May and June. A 13.7 meter oil column was discovered in the main prospect with a total net oil pay of 6.2 meters, which has significantly de-risked the adjacent structures lying at similar depths
Drilling of further wells planned in the Bolongo licence during 2013 to appraise the Oak discovery and to test the adjacent structures
Preliminary estimates of hydrocarbon volumes from the Oak-1x indicate between 16 and 27 million barrels of recoverable oil and potentially between 38 and 90 million barrels of recoverable oil if the adjacent but untested structures are included
Total own coal production H1 2012 was 7.9mt, up 12% compared to H1 2011
– Positive result despite heavy rains leading to mud accumulation at the La Jagua pit
Largest capital expenditure project currently under way is the construction of the new direct loading port (Puerto Nuevo)
– Project on schedule and budget and expected to be commissioned in H1 2013 Coal
Own production (kt)
48.4%
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Steven Kalmin
Chief Financial Officer
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US$ m H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012 % Change vs. H1 2011
% Change vs. H2 2011
Revenue 92,120 94,032 107,957 17% 15%
Adjusted EBITDA (1) (3) 3,845 2,619 3,199 (17%) 22%
Adjusted EBIT (2) (3) 3,303 2,095 2,508 (24%) 20%
Net income attributable to equity holders (3) 2,439 1,621 1,809 (26%) 12%
Statutory net income attributable to equity holders 2,474 1,574 2,275 (8%) 45%
Funds from operations (FFO) (4) 2,145 1,377 1,930 (10%) 40%
31-Dec-11 30-Jun-12 Annualised H1 2012 % Change
Total equity (including non-controlling interest) 32,335 34,848 8%
Net debt (US$ m) 12,938 14,466 12%
FFO to net debt (%) 27.2% 22.9% 26.7%
Key Financial Highlights
Notes: (1) Adjusted EBITDA is revenue less cost of goods sold, less selling and administrative expenses, plus share of income from associates and joint controlled entities, plus dividend income, plus depreciation and amortisation. (2) Adjusted EBIT is Adjusted EBITDA less depreciation and amortisation. (3) Pre significant items.(4) FFO is Operating cash flow before working capital changes less net interest paid, less tax paid, plus dividends received from associates.
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31.12.2011 30.06.2012 Annualised H1 2012
Gross debt $28.0bn $29.3bn
Net funding $26.7bn $27.8bn
Net debt $12.9bn $14.5bn
Adjusted current ratio 1.53x 1.48x
FFO to net debt 27.2% 22.9% 26.7%
Net debt to adjusted EBITDA 2.00x 2.49x 2.26x
Adjusted EBITDA to net interest 7.63x 7.09x
Robust Balance Sheet(1)
Robust balance sheet with $9bn of committed liquidity
headroom
No material refinancings in the next 12 months
– Liquidity spread across more than 100 banks globally
Strong cashflow coverage ratios:
– FFO to net debt at 22.9% (26.7% on annualised first
half results) vs. 27.2% in 2011
– Net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.49x (2.26x on
annualised first half results) vs. 2.0x in 2011
Further working capital release expected in H2 2012
S&P and Moody’s investment grade credit ratings
targeted: currently BBB (watch positive) and Baa2
(review with direction uncertain) respectively
Adjusted current ratio healthy at 1.48x vs. 1.53x in 2011
Average VaR (1 day 95%) of $32m, representing 0.1% of
shareholders’ equityNotes: (1) All definitions as per H1 2012 results release.
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
BB
BB+
BBB-
BBB
BBB+
A-
A
A+
BB-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ratings evolution versus key peers S&P rating
• Xstrata $5.9bn rights issue in March 2009
• Glencore $10bn IPO in May 2011, with $7.5 bn primary proceeds• Rio Tinto’s $38bn
acquisition of Alcan in July 2007
• Rio Tinto’s $14.8bn rights issues in June and July 2009
Consistently Solid Credit Profile Across the Cycle
Glencore Xstrata Anglo American Rio Tinto Noble Group Cargill ADM
Business model proven to be highly cash flow resilient across the cycle since first public credit rating in 1997
Marketing debt usage is fundamentally different to that associated with industrial activities. Short working capital turnover (36 days) with price and credit routinely hedged and title to funded underlying inventories retained
Recent all-in funding costs of <2.5% reflects these features from a lender perspective
Marketing is itself financed conservatively with average 2 year facilities funding 36 days working capital cycle
Resilient diversified business model, cash-like nature of RMI, low capital intensive nature of business and lower effective tax rate enable Glencore to maintain a strong credit rating (currently BBB, positive watch) despite variations in certain headline credit metrics
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Net Debt (US$ bn)
History of Stable Credit Ratios
FFO/Net Debt (x)
Note: (1) Reflects receipt of IPO proceeds
(1)
11.5
10.4 10.2
13.6
14.8
8.3
12.9
14.5
31.6%
20.9%
22.9%
20.3%22.6%
49.6%
27.2% 22.9%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
FY 2008 H1 2009 FY 2009 H1 2010 FY 2010 H1 2011 FY 2011 H1 2012
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H1 2012 vs. H2 2011 Adjusted EBIT Bridge for Industrial Assets
(US$ m)
1,393
1,646
(253)
83
(144)
30
1,435
(93)
307 28
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
H2 2011 Adj.EBIT
Price Volume Cost FX D&A Other AdjustedEBIT preassociateincome
AssociateIncome
H1 2012 Adj.EBIT
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H1 2012 vs. H1 2011 Adjusted EBIT Bridge for Industrial Assets
1,393
1,707
(314)
45
(129)
38
2,052
(571)
575
(303)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
H1 2011 Adj.EBIT
Price Volume Cost FX D&A Other AdjustedEBIT preassociateincome
AssociateIncome
H1 2012 Adj.EBIT
(US$ m)
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1,5471,655
901690 635
766633 609 688 666
184
266 552
145
350 299119
54092
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114153
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0
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400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
H1 2008 H2 2008 H1 2009 H2 2009 H1 2010 H2 2010 H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012 Average H12010 to H1
2012Metals Energy Agriculture Average 2008-2012
938
1,2771,152 1,118
Average 2008-2012: 1,150
1,572
654
Marketing Profitability H1 2012 in Perspective
(US$ m)Adjusted HY EBIT(1) (2)
Note: (1) No split available for H1 2008 to H2 2009(2) Excludes corporate costs in 2010-2012 17
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South African Coal
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South African Coal Overview A portfolio of high quality long life assets
Entity Glencore Effective Ownership %
Reserves and Resources
Total Annual Saleable Production
Annual Export Production
Annual Domestic Production
Optimum Coal 64.13%(1) 1,200mt 14.2mt 6.8mt 7.4mt
Shanduka Coal 49.99% 300mt 6mt 0.8mt 5.2mt
Umcebo Mining 43.66% 1,000mt 7.1mt 0.3mt 6.8mt
Total Controlled 2,500mt 27.3mt 7.9mt 19.4mt
Entity Glencore Effective Ownership %
Reserves and Resources(2)
Total Annual Saleable Production
Annual Export Production
Annual Domestic Production
Kangra Coal 15% 1,300mt 3.3mt 1.7mt 1.6mt
Total Non- Controlled
1,300mt 3.3mt 1.7mt 1.6mt
Glencore has developed a significant portfolio of coal assets in South Africa since the incorporation of Shanduka Coal in 2005
Recent acquisitions of Umcebo, Optimum and Kangra have increased aggregated saleable production to > 30mt p.a.
Glencore controlled entities have a combined Richards Bay Coal Terminal export allocation of 9.9mt; Kangra has 1.8mt
Glencore has management control of Optimum, Shanduka Coal and Umcebo
Glencore’s 15% interest in Kangra Coal is via an indirect interest through its 49.99% shareholding in Shanduka Coal, which in turn has a 30% interest in Kangra
Glencore controlled entities
Non - Glencore controlled entities
Summary
Notes: (1) Glencore effective ownership as at 30 June 2012 was 63%(2) The reserve and resource statement for Kangra is currently being completed. The number included is an estimate based on the work that has been done to date 19
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South African Coal Projects Strong pipeline of high quality projects
In addition, the following projects are currently being investigated and are expected to be developed over time
– Belfast (Umcebo) – resource of c.114mt
– Hendrina (Umcebo) – resource of c.374mt
– Leslie (Umcebo) – resource of c.250mt, contiguous to the Springboklaagte project and may be fast tracked
– Overvaal (Optimum) – resources of c.189mt
– Vlakfontein (Optimum) – resources of c.41mt
Development projects
Long lead projects
Project (1) Entity Estimated Start Up
Expected Annual ROM Production
Primary Market Life of Mine Capital Expenditure (Estimated)
Employees – Operational (Estimated)
Wonderfontein (2) Umcebo From 2012 3.6mt Export +- 20 Years R1bn 600
Koornfontein 4 Seam
Optimum From 2013 3mt Eskom +- 12 Years R700m 250
Springboklaagte Shanduka / Umcebo (50/50)
From 2015 3.6mt Export +- 12 Years R1.2bn 500
Argent Shanduka From 2015 2mt Export / Eskom +- 12 Years R400m 250
TNC Optimum From 2015 3.5mt Export +- 11 Years R900m 300
Remhoogte Optimum From 2016 4mt Export +- 16 Years R2bn 1,000
Schoonoord Optimum From 2015 1.3mt Export +- 15 Years R500m 150
Kusipongo Kangra From 2015 4mt Export +- 20 Years R1.2bn 1,000
Notes: (1) All projects are 100% owned except for the Wonderfontein project which is 50% owned by Umcebo, however it has management control of the project(2) The Wonderfontein project is in early development stage; all other projects are going through the feasibility process
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South African Coal Overview Geographical Map
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Eskom’s contracted coal is decreasing as its existing contracts come to an end
Currently constructing 2 new power stations:
– Kusile (4,800MW) – construction continuing, completion expected by 2018 with the first 800MW expected to start in December 2015
– Medupi (4,800MW) – construction continuing, expected to start producing electricity in H2 2013
The combination of expiring contracts and the new power stations means that Eskom’s un-contracted tonnage increases significantly to as much as 40mt in 2018
Eskom
Opportunities in South Africa 1. Eskom Coal Shortfall
Source: Dan Marokane McCloskey Presentation – 27.01.2012
Graph based on a 50 year operational lifespan with only 5 stations assumed in operation after 2040
Total uncommitted requirement of ~40Mtpa as
early as 2018
MT
per a
nnum
(mill
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Opportunities in South Africa 2. Transnet Freight Rail Expansion
Current rail capacity for Richards Bay exports expected to be c. 70mt for FY 2012
Plans approved to increase capacity to 81mt per annum by 2014
Transnet plans to expand rail capacity to 110mt and new exporters will be accommodated above the current port capacity of 91mt
– The increased capacity could add significant value to the Group given its current RBCT shareholding
RBCT Exports
Swazilink
Transnet confirmed plans to invest ZAR17bn on building a Swazilink railway line
Proposed line will increase rail capacity for both general freight and coal exports and will be the biggest rail project undertaken in Southern Africa since 1976
A new ZAR3.7bn single line covering 146km through Swaziland will be built by Transnet and investments of ZAR8.6bn will be made to upgrade and strengthen about 600km of existing railways
The line is expected to take as much as 15mt of general freight cargo off the Richards Bay coal line and free up capacity for coal moving to Richards Bay
– Could lead to an increase in Richards Bay coal capacity to c.100mt by 2020
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Agricultural Products
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Acquisition of Viterra
Transaction was announced on 20 March 2012, with component sales to Agrium and Richardson of c. CAD2.6bn already agreed
Glencore estimated net outflow of approximately CAD3.5bn to be further reduced via various non-core Viterra assets identified for likely disposal
On 29 May 2012, Viterra shareholders approved the acquisition
Almost all regulatory approvals have been received, including Canadian and Australian competition and foreign investment clearances
Approval of MOFCOM (China) is still pending
Post Merger Integration teams prepared for closing
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Russia15%
Canada13%
Australia15%EU-27
12%
Other26%
USA19%
USA2%
Australia17%
Ukraine9%
Russia1%
Other2%
Canada69%
Ukraine18%
Argentina17%
Russia17%
EU-2716%
Canada6%
Other6%
Australia20%
Wheat (140 million MT)World Exports by Country(1)
Barley (17 million MT)World Exports by Country(1)
Canola (12 million MT)World Exports by Country(1)
Africa
Rest of Asia
MalaysiaIndonesia
Japan
Viterra has origination assets in key geographic markets, in particular Australia & Canada
United States
Note: (1) Source: USDA, FAS, PSD. 2011/2012 estimated exports26
Importance of Canadian and Australian agri-markets
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AUSTRALIA109 Grain Silos
SOUTHAUSTRALIA
8 Port Terminals
EASTERN CANADA4 Port Terminals
WESTERN CANADA63 Grain Silos
3 Port Terminals8 Specialty Crop Facilities
2 Processing Facilities
Viterra Export Terminal Capacity
Viterra Grain Handling Assets
Existing Glencore Agriculture Assets
Diversified geographic mix in agricultural products segment
SOUTH AMERICAFarming
Grain SilosOilseed Processing
BiodieselProcurement
BusinessPort Terminals
EU / FSUFarming
Grain SilosPort Terminals
Oilseed ProcessingBiodiesel
Procurement Business
AUSTRALIAFarming
Procurement BusinessMalt processing
Complementary asset portfolios
CHINA49% JV Canola
Oilseed Processing
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U.S.3 Specialty Crop
FacilitiesDurum Milling
Pasta processing
Summary of Global Assets Acquired from ViterraNorth America Australia/NZ Total Acquired
Grain Silos 63 109 172
Specialty Crop Facilities 11 - 11
Port Terminals 7 8 15
Processing Facilities 4 8 (incl. 1 China JV) 12
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Development in US Product Balance from May to August 2012
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Ivan Glasenberg
Chief Executive Officer
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Concluding Remarks and Outlook
Overall
Industrial
Marketing Solid underlying profitability in Marketing, with metals particularly strong
– Strong performances from copper and aluminium
Highlights strength of our highly diversified business model
– Underpinned by strong relationships with customers, suppliers and finance providers
Performance heavily impacted by weaker average prices for key metals produced
Positives from our delivery of growth projects including oil E&P, Kazzinc, Mutanda, Prodeco and South African coal
– Continue to work hard to overcome short term production impacts at Katanga
Strong performance at the Aseng oilfield is particularly pleasing and expected to continue into the second half
Confident that we can deliver strong production growth over the next twelve months
Despite economic headwinds across Europe, US and China, Glencore delivered a healthy financial performance with net income, pre-significant items, of $1.8bn
The first half of 2012 also saw a number of material corporate events announced
– Recommended merger of equals with Xstrata announced on 7 February (subject to shareholder vote on 7 September and other regulatory approvals)
– Acquisition of Viterra announced on 20 March (subject to Chinese MOFCOM regulatory approval)
Other highlights included
– The purchase of a majority stake in Mutanda
– Acquisition of Vale’s European manganese operations and associated marketing agreements
Glencore’s diversified business model underpins the respectable performance against an uncertain macroeconomic picture and weaker commodity price environment
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Q & A
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