Glencoe Social Studies

CURRENTEVENTS UPDATE

FALL 2003

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To the Teacher:

In an ongoing effort to keep you and your students up to date on the complex and far-reaching events that are unfolding around the globe, Glencoe/McGraw-Hill provides this current events update twice a year.

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Events Update Fall 2003 brings the latest information about importanthappenings, issues and trends to your students in the vivid and compellingstyle for which Time is renowned. On the following pages, you’ll find newsreports, feature stories, chronologies, maps, graphs, charts and poll datataken exclusively from recent issues of Time. Accompanying these articlesare questions and worksheets to help students analyze and investigate thetopics about which they have been reading. We hope the Time/Glencoe

Current Events Update Fall 2003 will lead your students to a deeper understanding of the latest developments in the United States and abroad.

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to access this update online. Additional resources for teaching currentevents are available on a weekly basis from the Time Classroom website,located at www.timeclassroom.com.

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Sue Martin Bennett SingerEditorial Director, Social Studies Executive EditorGlencoe/McGraw-Hill Time Classroom

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Printed in the United States of America

Current Events UpdateDissecting the Case................................................................2

Awestruck.................................................................................4

Inside Saddam Hussein’s Head............................................6

Armed with Their Teeth........................................................7

✍ WORKSHEET: The U.S. Goes to War...........................................8

Can Anyone Govern This Place?.........................................9

The War Comes Back Home...............................................11

✍ WORKSHEET: Civil Liberties versus National Security...............13

Taking Aim at 2004..............................................................14

Bush’s Supreme Challenge..................................................16

Now She’s Got Game............................................................17

Where Did My Raise Go?...................................................18

The Real Face of Homelessness.........................................20

Seven Astronauts, One Fate................................................21

Who’s the No. 1 Palestinian Now?.....................................23

Why the War on Terror Will Never End.........................24

The Truth About sars..........................................................26

How Dangerous Is North Korea?......................................28

✍ WORKSHEET: Charts and Maps in Focus...................................30

Who’s Bugging Castro?........................................................31

✍ WORKSHEET:Current Events in Review.....................................32

Answers...................................................Inside Back Cover

a nation at war

campaign 2004

supreme court

society

economy

space

middle east

the war on terrorism

world health

north korea

cuba

G L E N C O E S O C I A L S T U D I E S

G U L F W A R I I

N A T I O N

W O R L D

2 time, february 10, 2003

By JOHANNA MCGEARY

George bush has a problem. the presi-dent of the U.S. is utterly convinced thatSaddam Hussein is an evil so dangerousand immediate that only war can expungethe threat—barring some miraculous 11th-

hour departure or resolution. For months Bushhas done his darnedest to make this case andconvince the world that theapplication of American mightis the best way to eradicate themenace. But he hasn’t persuadedeveryone just yet.

That’s why lights burned intothe night at cia headquarters last week as a specialteam of planners shuttled from the State Depart-ment and the White House to join agency analystsin poring over piles of satellite photos and phoneintercepts, sifting through tapes from defectorsand interrogations of detainees. Bush had justpledged in his State of the Union speech thatSecretary of State Colin Powell would take fresh,compelling evidence to the U.N. in seven days’time to bolster the case for war. At stake was not somuch whether war would ensue but whether theU.S. would fight it with all the legal, moral, polit-ical and popular support U.N. benediction wouldconfer. Bush has said all along that the U.S. wouldgo it alone if need be.

So what’s the magic up Powell’s sleeve? Sourcestell Time he’ll attack on three fronts, presentingevidence of elusive weapons of mass destruction,persistent obstructions of inspections and links to terrorism.

Saddam and InspectionsThere’s plenty of old evidence laying out Saddam’ssuspected arsenal of biological, chemical and nu-clear weapons that has for years formed the

bedrock of the case against Iraq. Inspectors whosearched for eight years after the Gulf War left awell-documented file of banned items they werepretty sure existed but they couldn’t find or couldnot prove were destroyed. Those are still missingand remain a central concern. But the trouble fromthe public relations perspective is precisely thatthat evidence is familiar and that it has alreadybeen judged by many to be insufficient grounds for

military confrontation. Iraqi defectors have told U.S.

intelligence they helped buildmobile biological-weapons labs;Powell could parade satelliteimages the cia has of large semi-

trailers crowned with oversize air vents that indi-cate the vehicles could house such labs. Alsoavailable are photos said to show dump trucksconverted into missile launchers.

Secretary Powell may make more of an impacton the Security Council by emphasizing anotherkind of evidence that may sound dryly technical butthat cuts to the heart of the U.N.’s authority: he’lldetail the ways Washington believes Iraq is cheat-ing on inspections. For the Administration’s case,the great value of Resolution 1441, authorizing theinspections, is the clarity with which it states thatobstructing its terms constitutes a material breachthat would provoke “serious consequences.” HansBlix, the chief inspector hunting biological andchemical weapons, provided the White Housewith an unanticipated boost when his Jan. 27 reportto the Security Council gave Saddam’s coopera-tion low marks and complained that Iraq hadshown no “genuine acceptance” of disarmament.

Iraq has thumbed its nose at high-altitude U-2surveillance flights, refusing to guarantee theirsafety unless the U.S. and Britain stop patrollingthe no-fly zones. The discovery a few weeks agoof Iraq’s illicit acquisition of missile engines and

Dissecting the Case The Bush Administration’s rationale for going to war with Iraq is basedon new and old evidence—as well as the President’s passionate conviction

G U L F W A R I I

To the President, Saddamposes an unacceptable risk

for the future of the U.S. and all its global allies.

time, february 10, 2003 3

purchases of barred chemical explosives indicatesconcrete violations of resolution terms. Britishofficials have also compiled a list indicting Iraq fordeliberately hampering inspectors during thepast two months.

Saddam and al-QaedaStrong evidence of a link between Iraq and ter-rorists would make it easy for allies—and nervousAmerican citizens—to support a war, but it’s thehardest allegation to prove.

To convince skeptics that Saddam not onlycould but has formed an alliance with the samekind of terrorists who caused the Sept. 11 attacks,U.S. officials are planning to disclose recent linksbetween Baghdad and the murky band of Kurdishfundamentalists called Ansar al-Islam. They saythe group, based in a corner of northern Iraqoutside Baghdad’s control, is an al-Qaeda opera-tion, trained by al-Qaeda men in Afghanistanand harboring al-Qaeda refugees who fled thefighting there.

Officials are also talking up the presence of al-Qaeda bigwigs in Baghdad. The only one identifiedso far is a chemical-weapons operative named AbuMusab Zarqawi, who stopped in the Iraqi capitallast summer to have his leg amputated after hewas wounded in Afghanistan. Since then, he hasbeen fingered for involvement in the assassina-tion of a U.S. diplomat in Jordan and in the Londonricin plot. A senior Administration source claimsthat Zarqawi met with Saddam’s lieutenants in aneffort to acquire chemical weapons.

But Powell will need to brandish some terrific

intelligence to prove there are solid lines—and notjust dots—between Saddam and terrorists. Aknowledgeable intelligence official says whetherPowell can provide sure-shot evidence lies “inthe remains-to-be-seen category.”

Saddam and His IntentionsSaddam is explicitly hostile to the U.S. and itsinterests. If he acquires a nuclear weapon on top ofhis hoarded biological and chemical ones, he will,according to Bush, wreak catastrophic harm onhis enemies, which means the U.S. The ultimatemethod, said Bush, would be for Saddam to handoff to a terrorist network “one vial, one canister, onecrate” of his deadly weapons “secretly and withoutfingerprints” to “bring a day of horror like none wehave ever known.”

To the President, that means Saddam posesan unacceptable risk for the future of the U.S.and all its global allies. Better war now than aftersuch an infamous day. As a practical matter, theU.S. has the military superiority to change Iraq’sregime and is convinced that the perils of under-taking it are outweighed by the risks of inaction.The Administration believes that in the face ofsuch moral clarity, who needs more evidence?

But as Bush acknowledged late last week, hewould prefer that U.S. citizens and the SecurityCouncil back him in this fight. That’s why Powellspent the weekend at home in northern Virginia,honing his performance. Bush made clear thatthis “final push” for U.N. benediction would last“weeks, not months.” To the true believers, Powell’smessage may feel like time wasted, but his successis crucial for the Security Council leaders whoneed credible cover if they are to join Bush on acrusade their own citizens overwhelmingly op-pose. And it is crucial also in reassuring millions ofAmericans that taking on Saddam now is prefer-able to waiting for him to take on the U.S. first. π

Questions

1. Why was Resolution 1441 helpful to Secretary ofState Colin Powell in making the case to the U.N.for a war against Iraq?2. What are the main pieces of evidence pointingto a possible link between Saddam and al-Qaeda?

G U L F W A R I I

4 time, march 31, 2003

By ROMESH RATNESAR

The opening act of gulf war ii did notproceed according to the Pentagon’s care-fully scripted blueprint: to begin with arapid push of ground troops, followed bya massive air assault designed to “shock

and awe” the enemy into submission. That plan waspre-empted because of an intelligence bonanzathat could have delivered the knockout punchbefore the opening bell. Acting on fresh infor-mation that came in hours beforethe deadline the U.S. Presidenthad set for Saddam to give uppower, George W. Bush orderedU.S. forces to strike the Baghdadbunker where Saddam was be-lieved to be sleeping. Just before dawn Thursday,March 20, three dozen Tomahawk missiles out-fitted with 1,000-lb. warheads were unleashedfrom six warships in the Persian Gulf and Red Seaand slammed into three buildings in Baghdad.Shortly after the missiles found their marks, apair of U.S. f117 fighters dropped four 2,000-lb.bunker-busting bombs on an underground facil-ity believed to be housing Saddam and at least oneof his two ruthless sons Qusay and Uday.

U.S. military officials told Time that the barrageobliterated its intended targets and almost cer-tainly killed some if not many of the key Iraqileaders believed to be huddling inside. In thewake of the U.S. strike, Iraqi television broad-cast what it claimed was a live statement fromSaddam that purported to show he had survived.Some viewers wondered whether the haggard,bespectacled figure was actually the dictator orone of his body doubles, though intelligence expertsconcluded that it was probably Saddam. Still, thatdid not rule out the possibility that the speech mayhave been previously taped.

Iraqi forces responded to the U.S. strike by set-ting several oil wells on fire and lobbing missiles to-ward allied troops massing on the border. Thoughnone hit their target, the Iraqi missiles were enoughto unnerve many of the U.S. forces, which weregearing up to begin their invasion on Friday, March21. The haphazard nature of Iraq’s response con-vinced Pentagon officials that the U.S. strike hadsucceeded in creating a power vacuum inside theIraqi military command, cutting links betweenBaghdad and its forces in the field. But the possi-

bility that those forces would panic,firing off more weapons and sabo-taging southern oil fields, per-suaded the U.S. commanders tobegin the ground war on Thurs-day, 24 hours ahead of schedule.

It didn’t seem to matter. Whatever enemy resis-tance the allies expected to face on their first pushinto Iraq was gone by the time they got there.

On Friday, as called for in the original plan,the U.S. finally delivered the “shock and awe,”pulverizing targets in Baghdad and positions scat-tered throughout the country with a barrage ofbombs dropped from hundreds of planes, as wellas Tomahawks fired from 30 warships. By then, theIraqi will to fight was weakening across southernIraq. Close to 10,000 Iraqi troops surrendered inthe first three days of conflict.

The decision to target Saddam directly in thewar’s first hours reflected the White House’s deter-mination to seize the offensive after weeks ofhumbling diplomatic rebuffs, cemented by theU.N. Security Council’s refusal to back the war.Like so many other diplomatic texts, U.N. Resolu-tion 1441 turned out to have enough ambiguities init to mean all things to all men. The French insistthat they understood the resolution allowed sometime for inspections to work. “Maybe six months,maybe 12, maybe 18,” says a top aide to French

AWESTRUCKA surprise attack aimed at Saddam, plus the kick off of the air and ground assault, shake the Iraqi regime. Inside the allied plan to finish it off for good

G U L F W A R I I

The White House was determined to seize theoffensive after weeks of

diplomatic rebuffs.

time, march 31, 2003 5

President Jacques Chirac. Every time Saddam didsomething—accept the weapons inspectors back,provide a report on his weapons—the French sawit as proof that inspections were working. TheAmericans, by contrast, saw it as continued Iraqiobstruction.

Meanwhile, to save his skin in federal elections,German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder came outagainst military action in Iraq under any circum-stances. With Germany set to take a seat on the U.N.Security Council in January, Paris would no longerbe facing the Americans alone. On Jan. 14, Chiracsaid France’s position on the need to continue withinspections was “identical” to Germany’s. Six dayslater, on Martin Luther King Day, Dominique deVillepin, the French Foreign Minister, dropped hisown bomb. France, he said, thought that “nothingjustifies envisaging military action.” It was theplainest signal possible that so long as the inspec-tors were getting cooperation from Saddam, Pariswould not support a war. Though it was not clear at

the time, the attempt to build a unified internationalposition on Iraq died that day.

Historians will long debate whether the road towar in Iraq could have been handled a differentway—and ask if the U.N. could have formed aunited front against Saddam, as it did in GulfWar I. But perhaps unity was an impossibledream. Only one nation—the U.S.—has sufferedthe thousands of deaths that a few people with adeep hatred could inflict. “I do think 9/11 is ahistoric watershed,” Vice President Dick Cheneytold nbc News last week. The U.S., he said, wasworried that the next attack on its territory “couldinvolve far deadlier weapons than the world hasever seen. The rest of the world hasn’t had tocome to grips with that yet.” π

Questions

1.Why did Pentagon leaders decide to launch theground attack on Iraq earlier than planned? 2. Why did France and Germany oppose the war?

G U L F W A R I I

Mosul

Kirkuk

Tikrit

Hawijah

Samarra

Ba‘qubah

Diwaniyah

Fallujah

Najaf

BAGHDAD

Hit

Hadithah

Ramadi

KutKarbala

Nasiriyah

Basra

Tigri s River

Euph

rates River

S A U D I A R A B I A

I R A N

K U W A I T

S Y R I A

I R A Q

T U R K E Y

JOR

DA

N

150 miles150 km

IRAQ ANDITS NEIGHBORS

DRIVE TOWARD BAGHDADIn a departure from plan, U.S. and British ground troops began the push into Iraq on Thursday, March 20, ahead of the touted “shock-and-awe” air campaign. A convoy of tanks, armored bulldozers and personnel carriers cut a swath through the south, along the way meeting both pockets of resistance and surrendering Iraqi soldiers. Leaders of the Iraqi 51st Mechanized Division surrendered their troops. Forces secured Umm Qasr, the Faw peninsula, the southern oil fields and Nasiriyah.

SHOCK AND AWECentral Command’s promised air show began with a barrage of bombs that rained on central Baghdad Friday night, March 21. Over the following nights, thousands of cruise missiles and other guided bombs leveled the Planning Ministry, two presidential palaces and many other key government buildings.

Inside SaddamHussein’s Head Other dictators have known when to flee. Why did the Iraqi ruler decide to stand his ground?

By JOHANNA MCGEARY

During nearly 24 years in power, saddamHussein never seemed to believe he mightface a moment like this. He has always been

remarkably good at dispatching his enemies beforethey could get to him. From the day Saddam at age20 launched his career as a gunman for the nation-alist Baath Party, he knew what it meant to be in anenemy’s cross hairs. “He killed lots of people to getto the top,” says Con Coughlin,author of a recent Saddam biog-raphy, all the while knowing that“they could get to the top bykilling him.” Bush himself hasrecently been watching a noto-rious videotape made in 1979that suggests Saddam person-ally orchestrated the executionen masse of close party colleagues who had justhelped him into the presidency.

Saddam expected unconditional subserviencefrom his inner circle. As a result, he came to live inhothouse isolation, in limited contact with anyideas but his own. Except for 31⁄2 years in Egypt, towhich he fled in 1960 after a failed assassination attempt on his life, and brief visits abroad in theearly 1980s, he knew little of the world outsideIraq. During a 1990 interview, Saddam expressedamazement that the U.S. had no laws to jail peoplewho insulted the American President—as Iraq does.

That may well account for Saddam’s history ofdisastrous miscalculations, especially in war. In1980 he saw the revolutionary confusion insideIran as a golden opportunity. No military expert,yet commander in chief, he thought a quick strikeby his superior forces could snatch back some

disputed territory from Iran. But his army failed tobreak Ayatullah Khomeini’s revolutionary forces foreight years. When Khomeini’s death finally letSaddam have a cease-fire in 1988, he declared it agreat victory.

A mere two years later, Saddam invaded oil-richKuwait as a quick way to finance the rebuilding ofhis war-shattered country. He subsequently mis-read almost every move the U.S. made in response,starting with his calculation that the first PresidentBush was not serious about kicking him out ofKuwait. When, as the Allies ripped through Iraq,a general finally told Saddam that his army wasbeing destroyed, he replied coldly, “That is youropinion.” But he proved right in one crucial calculation: if he could ride out the storm, hecould rebound.

Even in choosing to fight the U.S. a secondtime, Saddam may have sensed an opportunityfor survival. He apparently was convinced, just

as he had been a decade ago,that the U.S. could not stomachcasualties, so his strategy wasthe same—betting that a heavybody count would drive West-ern public opinion to demand a cease-fire.

This time around, there hasbeen far less scope for miscal-

culation. The younger President Bush has beennothing if not clear about his intention to get ridof Saddam. The dream in Washington was thatonce Iraq’s leader was convinced of certain defeat,he would depart to stay alive. But the expertsgenerally believe that for Saddam, power is every-thing and death is a better alternative than losingit. Any other outcome, says Phebe Marr, a formerPentagon consultant and author of a book onIraq, would destroy the monumental myth Sad-dam has spent his life creating. “His legacy,” saysMarr, “would disappear.” π

Questions

1. What are the reasons for the “history of disastrousmiscalculations” in Saddam’s war plans?2. Why do you think Saddam did not agree togive up power and go into exile?

6 time, march 31, 2003

G U L F W A R I I

From the day Saddam at age 20 launched his

career as a gunman for the nationalist Baath Party,he knew what it meant to be

in an enemy’s cross hairs.

Armed withTheir Teeth By JIM LACEY/NAJAF

Najaf’s civilians watched with hope andconcern last week as members of the 101stAirborne Division made repeated incursions

into the city, rooting out the remnants of regularand irregular Iraqi forces. After four days of cau-tiously advancing—sometimes fighting house tohouse, sometimes guided by civilians who pointedout the positions of Saddam’s men—the Division’s1st Brigade gained control of the area on Wednes-day, April 2. The following day Najaf had the feelof a liberated city. Smiling citizens crowded everystreet around the American positions. There was aconstant stream of people willingto give information and loudlycondemn Saddam. American sol-diers who a day before had beenin close combat were now bask-ing in the cheers and applause,their arms tired from returningfriendly waves.

But the euphoria was almost lost over an incidentat the mosque located within the Tomb of Ali inNajaf, one of Shi’ite Islam’s holiest sites. It beganwhen the local imam, who had spent 20 yearsunder house arrest until the city fell and his captorsfled, asked American soldiers to protect him and themosque. He neglected to explain this, however,to the crowds outside. As the soldiers of BravoCompany of the 2nd Battalion, who had formed atight perimeter on the street, began heading towardthe mosque, citizens started shouting and movingforward. With rabble rousers (later identified byIraqis as Baath Party members) shouting, “TheAmericans are storming the mosque,” the crowdbegan to chant and shake their fists. That’s whenColonel Chris Hughes made his move. Grabbing amicrophone he calmly announced over a loud-speaker, “Second Battalion soldiers, take a kneeand point your weapons at the ground.” Seconds

later every one of the men was on a knee, and nota single weapon was pointing at the crowd. Then hegave a most unusual directive: “Smile.”

It worked. Hughes kept his men like that forabout five minutes and then returned to the micro-phone. “Soldiers of the 2nd Battalion, we aregoing to stand up and then walk slowly back tobase. You will not point any guns at the crowd, andyou will smile at everyone.” A minute later theSmilin’ Second was walking away from themosque, and the Iraqis began intermingling withthem, patting them on the back and giving themthumbs-up signs again.

By midday, however, citizens began to raisemore pressing concerns. People stopped praisingBush and began asking for water. The brigadebrought in 1,000 gallons, but that wasn’t enoughto meet the need. U.S. military engineers, mean-while, set to work to restore power and the watersupply. But the people still seemed overjoyed, if

thirsty. The biggest problem U.S.soldiers faced was keeping thecrowds away from them as theytried to patrol the streets.

The Americans were furtherencouraged when a group of localShi’ites said they wanted to jointhe fight against Saddam. Both

sides agreed to convene at the city center, andtanks were sent to secure the area. The site, itturned out, was dwarfed by a giant statue of Sad-dam on horseback. Lieut. Colonel Ben Hodges, thebrigade commander, got an idea. After confirmingthat the statue really was of Saddam, he had engi-neers wrap the base with explosives. With a thun-derous blast Najaf’s most visible symbol of Saddam’sregime toppled in a heap of twisted metal. Peopleran from the side streets cheering and climbingover the wreckage, enjoying the giddiness of themoment. π

Questions

1. How did American troops respond to a poten-tially dangerous situation at the mosque in Najaf?2. What were the two primary needs of citizens ofNajaf? How did these citizens respond to thepresence of American troops in their town?

time, april 14, 2003 7

G U L F W A R I I

The biggest problem U.S. soldiers faced was

keeping the crowds awayfrom them as they tried

to patrol the streets.

8 Worksheet Prepared by Time Learning Ventures

Name Date ✍WORKSHEET

The U.S. Goes to WarA Gallery of ViewsPresident George W. Bush’s decision toattack Iraq brought about a broad range ofresponses from citizens and commenta-tors alike. At left are three cartoonists’ reactions to the outbreak of war. Studyeach of the cartoons. Then answer thequestions below.

1. What figures and symbols are repre-sented in each image? What action istaking place?

2. What is each cartoonist’s point of viewon the U.S. decision to go to war withIraq? Point to details in the images tosupport your answer.

3. What do the eagles represent in thetop cartoon? What prediction does thiscartoon make about the fate of SaddamHussein? What insights into Saddam’smindset are presented in Inside SaddamHussein’s Head on page 6? Explain whatJohanna McGeary means when shewrites, “[T]he experts generally believethat for Saddam, power is everything anddeath is a better alternative than losing it.”

4. What famous phrase is referred to in themiddle cartoon? What is the cartoonist’sperspective on the use of force? “Theopening act of Gulf War II did not proceedaccording to the Pentagon’s carefullyscripted blueprint,” states Romesh Rat-nesar in Awestruck on page 4. What hap-pened to change the plans?

5. What argument is presented in the bot-tom cartoon? How is President George W.Bush portrayed in this image? How do youthink members of the Bush Administra-tion might respond to this cartoon? Citespecific details in your response.

BUILDINGANALYTICALSKILLS

By DANIEL EISENBERG

Paul bremer strode into the swelter-ing Iraqi capital of Baghdad last week,sounding to all the world like the newsheriff in town—albeit one wearing a suitand tie. For a city racked by instability

and violence, President Bush’s newly appointedcivilian chief promised a new, no-nonsense ap-proach to law and order. Referring to the thou-sands of criminals Saddam Hus-sein freed before the war, theseasoned diplomat and counter-terrorism expert declared, “It’s timewe put these people back in jail.”

But after the first month of U.S.occupation of Iraq, it’s clear thatbringing security—to say nothing of democracy—toa broken country is more easily pledged than done.Bremer’s predecessor, retired Lieut. General JayGarner, fared so poorly from the start that one of hisown underlings in Iraq, career diplomat BarbaraBodine, sounded the alarm. She dashed off scathingreports to colleagues back in Washington warningthat he was in danger of losing the peace, accord-ing to officials at the State Department and theBaghdad-based Office of Humanitarian and Recon-struction Assistance (ohra). (Bodine declined tocomment for this article.) The inability of Garner toget his arms around Baghdad’s troubles not onlycost him his job but has also lost the U.S. consid-erable goodwill among the Iraqi population, dam-aged American credibility abroad and raised theprospect of prolonged turmoil in the country. Now,as a senior U.S. official starkly puts it, “We have amonth to [turn things around]” before the people’sfrustration could turn into full-blown rage.

The city is on edge. Bremer is putting a goodspin on things, talking about hundreds of newarrests, longer detentions and stepped-up nightpatrols. “This is not a country in anarchy,” he says.

“People are going about their business. Acrossmost of Iraq, life is clearly getting better.” ButBaghdad’s beleaguered residents might beg todiffer. Running water and electricity are rare tocome by; the wait for gasoline can last two days;and in many neighborhoods, malnourished chil-dren play in streets that are flooded with rawsewage and piled with garbage.

The Pentagon contends that most of these con-ditions predate the war. But there has been a

fearsome jump in crime. Car-jackings, lootings, robberies,arson and rapes have become theorder of the day—and night. Auto-matic gunfire provides an unset-tling sound track for daily life.The threat of violence makes par-

ents afraid to send their kids to school, merchantswary of opening their stores and law-abidingIraqis nervous about going out after dark. TheAmericans have tried to blame pro-Saddam sabo-teurs for the collapse of order. Lieut. GeneralDavid McKiernan, head of the U.S. land forces inIraq, said last week that Baghdad’s breakdownwas largely the result of an organized resistanceengineered by Saddam loyalists. But other militaryofficials say this is secondary to the main issue:restoring the minimum quality of life for ordi-nary Iraqis—a job, electricity, proper sewage, safestreets. An American intelligence official says hebelieves that the amount of politically inspiredarmed resistance is “remarkably low.”

Either way, there are not nearly enough police tomake a difference, and some of the few in uni-form aren’t even the real thing. The Iraqi RedCrescent learned that lesson when thieves posingas traffic cops held up one of the organization’sworkers and made off with his car. Automobiletheft has become such a recurring problem that therelief organization care has ordered workers touse taxis to get around the city. “We half expected

Can Anyone Govern This Place? Bush puts a new man in Baghdad. But as crime and chaos flourish in the Iraqi capital, the U.S. needs a new strategy there too.

G U L F W A R I I

Bringing security—to saynothing of democracy—to a broken country ismore easily pledged

than done.

time, may 26, 2003 9

the police force to still be functional, but they werenot,” Army Major General Buford Blount, com-mander of the 3rd Infantry Division, said last week.Although more than half of Baghdad’s regular po-licemen—about 1,700—have returned to work, fewhave cars, all need to be retrained and their lootedstation houses are not open around the clock.

Few had expected the U.S. to have this muchtrouble bringing order to Iraq. “It’s difficult toimagine how this could have happened,” says aBritish government official. “But it appears thatthere was no planning whatsoever.”

From the outset, the Bush Administration wasoverly optimistic and in many ways unprepared forthe myriad, messy challenges of rebuilding Iraq.The Pentagon had expected the postwar transi-tion in Iraq to be orderly and quick, without re-quiring a major, long-term commitment of U.S.forces and other resources. Washington, it nowseems, spent too much time thinking about how toreform institutions and not enough time on how toprovide people with basic security or infrastructuresuch as electrical grids, oil-refining equipment,hospitals and museums.

The challenge of turning things around nowfalls to Bremer, a consummate Washington opera-tor who worked for Henry Kissinger’s consultingfirm for more than a decade after 23 years in theState Department. His record as a tough, capableadministrator manages to satisfy both Pentagonhard-liners and State Department moderates.

Bremer began by making it clear that Saddam’sloyalists from his now outlawed Baath Party wouldno longer be given key positions at government

ministries. Many Iraqis had bitterly criticizedGarner for the haphazard way Baathists hadbeen let back into authority. Bremer won ap-proval from Pentagon hard-liners in part, aDefense official says, because he was willing to“get in there and de-Baathify” Iraq. On FridayBremer formally barred as many as 30,000Baath members from government jobs. Toshow that the U.S. cares about ordinary Iraqis,soldiers are going into a different section oftown every day to help with garbage collectionand medical care. The U.S. had unwittinglyceded such basic services to Shi’ite organiza-

tions that opposed the American presence. Fueldeliveries are being speeded up, and mid-levelIraqi government workers, who haven’t seen apaycheck in two months, have been told they willsoon be paid and perhaps even be given a raise.

Bremer’s tenure quickly raised eyebrows amidmedia reports that he had ordered military com-manders to shoot a few looters. He has denieddrawing up any such plan. But the U.S. policingpresence is being heightened. Some 20,000 addi-tional troops are bound for the region, and thenumber of U.S. military police patrolling Baghdadwill soon double, to 4,000.

As for the political transformation, the Pentagon’sdesire to turn national leadership back to Iraqis bythe end of the month has hit a roadblock. Althoughopposition figures told Bremer that the timetablefor installing a transitional authority should notchange, he quickly realized that neither they northe U.S. was ready. American reconstruction offi-cials have not been able to weld Iraq’s rival oppo-sition leaders into a unified, reliable body capableof rule. The U.S. will lose the peace if it leaves Iraqwith a weak, ineffectual government. In the cur-rent state of disarray, no matter how tough PaulBremer talks, he can’t afford to take that kind of gamble. π

Questions

1. What problems does Iraq face in the post-Sad-dam era? How successful was General Jay Garnerin addressing these problems? 2. What changes have been made since Paul Bre-mer took over the job of running Iraq?

G U L F W A R I I

10 time, may 26, 2003

By RICHARD LACAYO

Standing on the deck of the u.s.s. Abraham Lincoln last week, George W.Bush declared the Iraq war largely over. Itwas a majestic occasion even if you knewthat its majesty had been carefully stage-

managed. The central purpose of all the pageantrywas to soothe us: We’re winning the war on ter-rorism, the worst is over, let’s get back to work.

But on the very day that President Bush wasdeclaring provisional victory over Baghdad, a notable skirmish in another war was quietly underway in Washington. This is awar without daily briefingsby self-assured Bush men andwomen. It’s the war over howto make America safer with-out turning it into a policestate. And this war is far fromover.

As the demands of securitybump up against the safe-guards of personal liberty,clashes have been breakingout around the country overwhere to draw the line. Near-ly 100 towns and counties,plus the state of Hawaii, have passed resolutionscondemning the usa Patriot Act, the post-9/11law that greatly expanded federal powers to con-duct the war on terrorism.

Not so fast, says Assistant Attorney GeneralViet Dinh, who had a large part in shaping the usaPatriot Act. “Security is the means by which weachieve our fundamental freedoms.” Dinh rejectsthe idea that the Justice Department is doing abalancing act because, he says, the department ismaking sure that no civil liberties are violated.

Here are some of the questions that are testingthat vigilance:

WHAT RIGHTS FOR ALIENS?On March 1, immigration control was transferredto the new Department of Homeland Security.One of the department’s first steps was to an-nounce that henceforth anyone arriving from oneof 33 mostly Muslim nations and seeking asylum inthe U.S. would be automatically jailed while theasylum application was pending. (Asylum is a formof protection that allows foreigners to remain here,provided they meet the definition of a refugee.) Thegovernment could point to a few terrorists whohad entered the U.S. under the guise of asylumseeker, notably Abdel Rahman, now in prison for

plotting attacks on the UnitedNations and other targets. Butasylum applications usually takesix months or more to process,and incarceration is a fate pre-viously reserved for applicantswho might be a risk to the com-munity or might disappear.

WHO DESERVES A LAWYER?Time and again, people round-ed up after 9/11 have not beenpermitted to talk to lawyers.Civil libertarians are especiallyuneasy about the legal no-man’s

land at the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay,Cuba, where more than 600 captives from the warin Afghanistan are still being held and have notbeen accorded prisoner-of-war status. The gov-ernment justifies this on the grounds that it needsto question them, but most of the interrogations areover. The rules governing military tribunals allowthe detainees at Guantanamo to have a free militarylawyer or a civilian lawyer as long as the govern-ment doesn’t have to pay for representation. Butcivilian lawyers willing to work for the detainees forfree complain that the Pentagon has not allowedthem to contact potential clients.

The War Comes Back Home Can Attorney General John Ashcroft fight terrorism on our shores without injuring freedoms that are sacred to the American way of life?

A N A T I O N A T W A R

≤To say that the ExecutiveBranch on its own

determination can pick somebody up and hold them

indefinitely without any procedure or access to a court or to counsel or the

press is an absolutely staggering thought.≥

—Stephen Schulhofer, New York University law professor

time, may 12, 2003 11

WHAT IF THE ACCUSER IS HIDDEN?In March two men, Irfan Kamran, 32, and SajjadNasser, 28, were held in prison, charged with har-boring an illegal immigrant, while the fbi tried todetermine whether they had links to al-Qaeda.Kamran, a naturalized American citizen, andNasser, a Pakistani, are cousins who had beenliving legally in the U.S. for years but returnedoccasionally to their native country. The govern-ment contends that in the summer of 2001 Nasserattended a training camp in Pakistan run by theArmy of Muhammad, a group the U.S. believes islinked to al-Qaeda. Nasser’s lawyer admits that hespent several days there but says he left after herealized it was too strenuous. He also insists thatthe Army of Muhammad is not aimed at the U.S.but is a militia devoted to ousting India fromKashmir, territory that Pakistan also claims.

As for Kamran, prosecutors say he told a “con-fidential source” that he planned to join al-Qaedaand fight the U.S. Kamran’s lawyer denies that,saying the fbi claim rests upon a witness it refus-es to identify. On April 8, Federal Judge Lewis T.Babcock ordered Kamran’s and Nasser’s release,ruling that the government had failed to showthat they were dangerous. At that point, prose-cutors successfully moved to detain Nasser againby hitting him with another immigration charge.

WHEN CITIZENS ARE BRANDED THE ENEMYThe post-9/11 episode that worries civil libertariansthe most involves dirty-bomb suspect José Padilla,an American citizen who allegedly met with senior

al-Qaeda operatives in a plot to detonate aradiological device somewhere in the U.S.Arrested last year at Chicago’s O’Hare Inter-national Airport, Padilla was classified as anenemy combatant and sent to a naval prison inSouth Carolina, where he has been deniedaccess to a lawyer. According to governmentfilings, Padilla has been undergoing months ofinterrogation that could be compromised iflawyers were allowed into the process.

A federal judge in Manhattan has ruledthat Padilla must be allowed to meet with hislawyers in order to challenge his enemy-combatant status. But the government main-

tains that no court has the authority to reviewthat classification.

The case could wind up in the Supreme Court.“To say that the Executive Branch on its own deter-mination can pick somebody up and hold them indefinitely without any procedure or access to acourt or to counsel or the press is an absolutelystaggering thought,” says Stephen Schulhofer, a lawprofessor at New York University and the authorof The Enemy Within, a book produced for theCentury Foundation, that examines post-9/11questions of civil liberty. The Attorney General in-sists that misses the larger point. “There are nocivil liberties that are more important than theright to be uninjured and to be able to live infreedom,” Ashcroft recently told Time.

The dilemma is that reasonable people canagree with both arguments. But no one knowswhether such changes will make us safer orundermine constitutional protections—or both. Onthe deck of the u.s.s. Abraham Lincoln last week,when the President said the war on terrorismwould be a fight that lasts years, he should haveadded that some of its most pitched battles will befought in our courts. And in our own dividedhearts and minds. π

Questions

1. Describe the new policy on aliens seeking asy-lum in the U.S.2. Who makes the determination that someonebe classified an “enemy combatant” and deniedaccess to a lawyer?

A N A T I O N A T W A R

12 time, may 12, 2003

Worksheet Prepared by Time Learning Ventures 13

Name Date

Civil Liberties versusNational Security“As the demands of security bump up againstthe safeguards of personal liberty, clashes havebeen breaking out over where to draw the line,”writes Richard Lacayo in “The War Comes BackHome” on page 11. This activity provides a chancefor you to state your own position on how manyfreedoms citizens should give up in the interestof protecting national security. Working individ-ually or with a small group of classmates, pickone of the areas of civil liberties addressed in thearticle and use the following questions to bringboth sides of the argument into focus.

Civil Liberties Issues:π The Rights of Aliensπ The Right to Legal Representationπ The Right to Face Your Accuserπ Americans Being Designated Enemy Combatants

Suggested Websites For Your Research:www.time.com www.cnn.comwww.latimes.com www.washingtonpost.comwww.usdoj.gov www.aclu.orgwww.dhs.gov http://thomas.loc.gov

1. First answer some general questions. What arecivil liberties? What is the basis for civil liberties?Is there a difference between civil liberties andhuman rights? Have your rights or civil liber-ties or those of anyone you know been compro-mised in the name of national security since thewar on terrorism began?

2. Now select one of the areas of study from thelist above and research the example given inthe article. Find out as many details as you canabout the history and background of the issue,

including any new developments thathave happened since the article was written.Are there any other similar examples? If so,briefly describe them. Make a dossier or filelisting all the relevant information.

3. Research the laws or statutes regarding the issues involved in your example and add them toyour dossier. How was the issue dealt with priorto 9/11? How has it changed since then? Does theusa Patriot Act specifically address the issueinvolved? If so, how?

4. Now make a list of arguments on both sides ofthe issue, using the specific case cited and theo-retical scenarios as well. Cite all the security issuesinvolved, along with civil libertarians’ objections.

5. Pick one person to represent each point ofview on each issue and stage a debate. After thedebate, vote as a class to decide which argumentwas most persuasive and why. Take notes belowand on the back of this sheet.

✍WORKSHEET

14 time, may 5, 2003

By JAMES CARNEY and JOHN F. DICKERSON

Two of the men george w. bush mostadmires—his father and WinstonChurchill—led their nations to militarytriumphs only to be tossed out of office byrestless voters who wanted attention paid

to the home front. At the moment, the Presidentis on top of the world, a foreign policy neophytewho has two wars under his belt, a loser of thepopular vote whose performance as Presidentnow wins the approval of more than 7 of 10 Amer-icans. But voters are turning their attention awayfrom Iraq just as Bush begins his quest for the val-idation that escaped him in 2000: a real majorityand a mandate from the American people.

ENDLESS WARAs the first statue of Saddam fell in Baghdad threeweeks ago, the White House was putting intomotion a plan that would allow the President topivot from his focus abroad to mending fences athome. Bush’s “hardware in the heartland” tourfollows the battle plan for his re-election effort:from now until November 2004, he will blendmartial images with rhetoric about tax cuts andnever let the nation forget that we’re at war bothabroad and at home.

KARL KNOWS ALLTo make sure they are shaped for maximum polit-ical benefit, travel schedules, speeches and policydetails all run through the office of Karl Rove, thePresident’s celebrated political strategist. Exclud-ing his home state of Texas, 70% of Bush’s travel asPresident has been to states considered critical inthe 2004 race. Florida alone has seen him 10 times.Rove played a crucial role in shaping the President’sdecision to hike tariffs on foreign steel, a movecheered in such crucial industrial states as West Vir-ginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

PAY OFF YOUR BASEBush has united his party by employing a strategythat Grover Norquist, a White House ally and thepresident of Americans for Tax Reform, describesas “delivering on first-tier issues.” For the fiercelyantitax crowd, Bush supplied his $1.1 trillion tax cutin 2001. By sticking with his core supporters on theissues they care most about, Bush has given himselfleeway to disappoint them on what Norquist calls“second- and third-tier issues.”

USE THE POWELL DOCTRINEThe Bush team leaves nothing to chance, and so for2004, Rove is applying the Powell Doctrine ofoverwhelming force to politics. The $120 millionBush raised in 2000 was a record. This time, aidessay, Bush will raise nearly twice that amount. Thatmeans he’ll have tens of millions of dollars to spendnext spring on television ads to shock and awe hisDemocratic opponent, who will have just emergedpenniless from a bruising nomination battle. “Justwatch,” says a Bush adviser. “We’ll have moremoney than God.”

WE’RE NOT STUPID; IT’S THE ECONOMYThe economic news continues to be pretty bleak.In recent weeks, cash-strapped states and citiesacross the country have announced new taxesand painful spending cuts. Though there areflecks of good news, such as an unexpected rise inpurchases of big-ticket items, the grumpy econ-omy is still Bush’s greatest vulnerability. Here iswhat the White House is doing to lower the risk:

1 For Bush, tax cuts are what the grand unifiedtheory is to cosmologists: the secret to every-

thing. Bush is having a hard time convincing thepublic—only 42% think tax cuts are a good idea—but he continues to push headlong into the battle.

2Voters soured on the first President Bush less be-cause the economy was stagnant in 1992 than

because he didn’t seem to care that people were

TAKING AIM AT 2004 Can Bush win a second term running on a platform of tanks and tax cuts?An inside look at the playbook for the 2004 presidential campaign

C A M P A I G N 2 0 0 4

time, may 5, 2003 15

hurting. His son won’t make thatmistake. “If he’s working hard toget a growth package enacted, that’smore important than actually gettingit enacted,” says a key Bush adviser.

3Preaching confidence may be afar more effective tonic for the

economy than any single piece oflegislation. That may explain whythe President refuses to give up ontrying to end the tax on dividends.His advisers also believe that elim-ination of this so-called double tax-ation can provide a quick “optimismboost” to the stock markets. WhiteHouse officials point to forecasts ofa rise in the Dow of between 5%and 20% if the measure is passed.“There is no more important mea-sure of consumer confidence thanthe markets,” says a senior adviser.If the markets go up, so do theodds of a second Bush term in theWhite House.

Presidential elections often comedown to the simple questionRonald Reagan asked in 1980: Areyou better off now than you werefour years ago? Democrats will beasking that as they challengeGeorge W. Bush in the monthsahead. In 1992, with the world atpeace and the cold war over,change seemed safe, and voterswalked away from Bush’s father,taking a chance on a relative un-known named Bill Clinton. If theeconomy does not recover, thePresident won’t be able to tellAmericans they are better off thanthey were four years earlier. Butin the post-9/11 world, George W.Bush knows that better off is not just about moneyand financial security. Flanked by planes andguns, he will tell voters that in this new world,with the threat of terror all around us, changecan be a dangerous thing. π

Questions

1. What is the Bush administration’s strategy forfixing the economy?2. How can the Powell Doctrine be applied toBush’s re-election campaign?

Bush’s SupremeChallenge With a court retirement likely, Al Gonzales is a Bush favorite. But isthat enough to assure his confirmation?

By JOHN F. DICKERSON and VIVECA NOVAK

Even for a white house in which staffmembers pride themselves on being low-key,Alberto Gonzales is inconspicuous. The

flashiest thing he has done recently is briefly regrowhis mustache. And yet the modest, Harvard-edu-cated lawyer has a riveting story. The son of migrantworkers in Texas, he grew up in a house his dadbuilt, sharing two bedrooms with seven siblings.Even the town’s name wasHumble. Gonzales, 47, has allthe traits of the people GeorgeW. Bush brought up fromAustin—loyalty, discretion andself-effacement—but his per-sonal history is what really cap-tures the President.

Bush has an almost mystical faith in his ability totake the measure of people by looking them inthe eye. Within the next few months, he may bemeasuring some candidates for a long black robe.It is almost certain that by the end of June, whenthe Supreme Court adjourns for summer recess, atleast one Justice will have announced his or herretirement. Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist, 79,and Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, 73, have ex-pressed a desire to leave. Rehnquist has seriousback trouble, and O’Connor would like to return toArizona with her husband. Both want a RepublicanPresident to name their replacement. Then there’sthe wild card, John Paul Stevens, 83, a liberal whois likely to stay but is the court’s oldest member.

Among the many names floated for the post, nocandidate has the President’s trust like Gonzales,who currently serves as White House Counsel.But the irony is that Bush may have a harder timeselling his first choice to his allies than to his

antagonists. Democrats, who are locked in a pitchedbattle with the White House over lower-court nom-inations, fear rejecting the first Hispanic nomineeto the high court would play badly with Hispanicvoters, whom the Democrats are eager to win over.

For conservative Republicans, however, Gon-zales is not even on the top 10 list. They crave aJustice who is strict and outspoken on core conser-vative issues, namely abortion and affirmativeaction, and for them Gonzales is too much of a cipher, perhaps too moderate.

So what’s the problem with unassuming Al?Pro-life advocates believe that if the right juristreplaces either O’Connor or Stevens, the courtwill finally have a chance to overturn Roe v. Wade,the 1973 ruling that established the right to have anabortion. Though Gonzales’ views on the matter arenot known, opponents cite his vote—and the con-curring opinion he wrote—as a Texas Supreme

Court judge allowing a girl touse a bypass provision of a stateparental notification law to getan abortion.

The judge’s defenders arguethat he has had a strong handin many issues that have pleasedthe Republican base: the order

setting up military tribunals to try suspected ter-rorists, the fight with Congress over releasing infor-mation about Dick Cheney’s energy task forceand ending the American Bar Association’s role inrating potential judicial nominees.

Ultimately, what Gonzales has going for him isthat Bush has looked him in the eye for yearsand liked what he has seen. He also seems to likewhat his support for Gonzales seems to say abouthimself: that the aristocratic President is an egali-tarian guy capable of rewarding up-by-the-boot-straps achievement. All this may be importantenough to Bush that he’s willing to take somepolitical heat for his loyal pal. π

Questions

1. How might the blocking of Al Gonzales’s nomi-nation hurt the Democrats? 2. Why might Republicans oppose the nomina-tion of Al Gonzales to the U.S. Supreme Court?

16 time, may 26, 2003

S U P R E M E C O U R T

Ultimately, what Al Gonzaleshas going for him is thatBush has looked him in

the eye for years and likedwhat he has seen.

Now She’s Got Game Title IX helped more women get intosports, but opponents complain the legislation is now pushing men out

By MICHELE ORECKLIN

Gampel pavilion on the university of con-necticut’s campus can seat 10,000 people,and every time the women’s basketball team

plays there, the place sells out. At a recent homegame, UConn’s athletic director, Lew Perkins,surveyed the students with their faces paintedin the team’s colors, the dancing Husky mascotand sports reporters from publications not nor-mally inclined to cover women’scollege athletics. “This turnouthas nothing to do with Title ix,”Perkins remarked, referring tothe 1972 law that requires schoolsreceiving federal funds to offerequal opportunities to men andwomen. “These people are herebecause our women’s basketballteam is so great.”

But doesn’t Title ix count in the team’s suc-cess? Would the school have allotted the re-sources, facilities, equipment or salary for a first-rate coach to develop the program if it had notbeen mandated to do so by law?

When Title ix was written, it was clear thatwomen needed help to achieve equality on theplaying field. But 31 years later, some questionwhether the legislation has worked too well andpromoted women at the expense of men. Underthe law, a school can demonstrate Title ix com-pliance in one of three ways: by making the per-centage of female athletes the same as the per-centage of female students, by showing anongoing history of increasing opportunities forwomen, or by showing that it is accommodatingthe interests and abilities of women.

It is the first option, the proportionality test, that

gets Title ix critics in a lather. In a frequentlycited case, Marquette University decided to endits wrestling program in 2001, even though theteam was primarily supported by private dona-tions. The school said it was trying to create par-ity between the total number of spots for womenand those for men. This was one of the cases thatled the National Wrestling Coaches Association tofile a lawsuit against the Department of Education,claiming that Title ix was unlawful and encouraged“gender quotas.”

Few words are more likely to get the Bush Ad-ministration’s attention than “quota.” So last June,U.S. Education Secretary Rod Paige appointeda 15-member Commission on Opportunity inAthletics to consider changes to Title ix. Themove dismayed the law’s defenders, who believethat the White House is intent on rolling backyears of gains.

Supporters of Title ix say thelaw is being used as a scapegoatfor poor fiscal management overathletic budgets. “On too manyoccasions, schools that have cutteams have blamed Title ix,” saysLamar Daniel, who consultswith schools on Title ix issues.“At those institutions that I haveworked with, lack of money has

been the primary reason for cutting teams.”Both sides say much discord could be avoided

by persuading athletic directors to rely less onthe proportionality test and more on one of thetwo other options for proving compliance. “Oneof the greatest problems is the thinking that pro-portionality is the only way to reach the goal,”says Valerie Bonnette, who spent 15 years in theOffice of Civil Rights and is now a private con-sultant to schools working to achieve gender equity.“Title ix offers enough flexibility that schoolshave a reasonable choice.” π

Questions

1. What are the three ways that schools can showthey are in compliance with Title ix?2. What has the Bush Administration done to lookinto the fairness of Title ix?

time, march 3, 2003 17

S O C I E T Y

Thirty-one years after Title IX became law, some

question whether the legislation has worked toowell and promoted women

at the expense of men.

18 time, may 26, 2003

By DANIEL KADLEC

Tod raphaely was flying high four yearsago when he was named European salesmanager for Raltron Electronics and sawhis salary rise to $115,000 a year. Now 43,Raphaely remained upbeat when the tech

bubble began to leak air and he was reassigned tothe Miami headquarters of the manufacturer ofcomputer and cell-phone parts. He and his wifeWendy bought a condo and renovated the kitchen.He didn’t panic when he and several other Raltronemployees had their pay cut 10% in the fall of2001 and another 10% the following spring. “Wewere hoping things would get better,” Tod says.“So we continued to trudge on.” But last fall Ral-tron slashed wages a third time—by more than20% in Tod’s case. He now makes $70,000 a yeareven though he has taken on additional duties. Heand Wendy have cut household spending, buttheir credit-card debt—and their anxiety—is soar-ing. Tod says he is grateful just to have a regularpaycheck.

Everyone knows about unemployment. Butmillions of working Americans are now facing aless familiar and perhaps more troubling problem:shrinking wages. It’s a phenomenon that takesmany forms. Some workers, like Raphaely, havehad to swallow outright paycuts. Others have lost theirjobs and, in the tough labormarket of today, have had tosettle for new ones at lesspay. Still others—includingemployees at such giants asat&t, Boise Cascade andStarwood Hotels—have hadto accept pay freezes that,when rising prices are fac-

tored in, amount to reduced compensation. Toadd insult to injury, companies everywhere arereducing bonuses and overtime and erodinghealth and pension benefits.

The numbers are grim. For the 500,000 workerslaid off since January, the average job search hasstretched to a 19-year high of nearly five months—about twice the duration of the typical severancepackage. According to outplacement firm Chal-lenger, Gray & Christmas, 17% of those who dofind work—nearly double the historical percent-age—are settling for less pay. The net result ofthe various pressures on pay: in the first threemonths of 2003, median weekly earnings adjust-ed for inflation fell 1.5%, according to the U.S.Labor Department. That’s the biggest drop since1991, according to Jared Bernstein, an economistat the Economic Policy Institute, a research groupbased in Washington.

The no-raise economy is partly a predictable,temporary aftershock from the burst Internetbubble and recession. With core inflation (ex-cluding food and energy) officially running atjust 1.5%, workers are relatively well equipped tocope with stingy employers—particularly in anera of 0% auto financing and mortgage rates thatlast week dropped yet again to historic lows. Dra-matically declining energy prices since the Iraq

war ended are another wel-come buffer, allowing con-sumers to keep more of whatthey earn.

But there is an unsettlingpermanence to the falling-wage trend, as companieshold the line on compensa-tion so they can compete inan increasingly global econ-omy in which low costs are

Where Did My Raise Go? Shrinking paychecks are the new reality for many Americans. Global markets and a weak economy are affecting the way wework—and how much we take home in our paychecks each week

E C O N O M Y

’98 ’00’99 ’01 ’02 ’03

$620

600

580

560

540

Salary SlideMedian weekly earnings

have declined overthe past 16 months

(in 2002 dollars, seasonally adjusted)

time, may 26, 2003 19

key to survival. The ugly truth, which you won’thear on the campaign trail, is that even as eco-nomic growth picks up—as it surely will—thereis not a lot that Washington can do to encourageemployers to hand out more raises.

One job title defying the trend is ceo: pay forchief executives rose 15% in 2002, according toEquilar, a firm that studies ceo compensation.That amounts to about 200 times the pay of theaverage worker, up from 56 times in 1989, accor-ding to the Journal of Economic Issues. Investinglegend Warren Buffett, who has been campaign-ing against executive compensation that is outof line with returns to workers and shareholders,said in a recent speech that “what really gets to thepublic is when ceos get rich, really rich, and theyget poorer.”

Pay freezes and cuts in one company or industryare a necessary feature of healthy competition, butwhen they spread through an entire economy, itis cause for concern. Federal Reserve ChairmanAlan Greenspan recently signaled that he wasprepared to cut short-term interest rates for the13th time since January 2001 to guard against acorrosive bout of deflation, like the one Japan hasendured for nearly a decade. Wage pressures anddeflation “obviously go together,” says LaurenceMeyer, an economist and a former member ofthe Fed’s board of governors. “When there is slack-ness in the economy, it puts downward pressure onwages that then passes through to the price ofgoods and services.”

President Bush’s proposed solution is a packageof tax cuts mainly for upper-income Americans.The current “recession mentality,” he argues, hasled to extensive corporate cost cutting and down-ward wage pressures that will abate as the econ-omy revives. “When demand goes up, wages willfollow,” Bush says. No doubt faster growth, whenit comes, will help boost employment and stabi-lize pay. But it is unlikely that wages will reboundquickly. The world has changed. The spread oftechnology and skills, of Internet communica-tion and cheap shipping, means that today moreU.S. firms must compete against foreign rivals thatare more formidable than ever. And this requiresholding down wages.

Is there anything American society can doabout eroding wages? A major investment in pub-lic education is the best solution, says formerLabor Secretary Robert Reich. The U.S. workforce must stay a step ahead of the rest of theworld “to make it possible for more Americans tobe innovative and add productive value,” he says.That’s what keeps jobs at home—and wages goingup. But it is a moving target. The world’s workforce, especially in India and other parts of Asia,is catching up in education. And as long as peoplethere will work for less, wages here will remainunder pressure even as the economy recovers. π

Questions

1. What might suggest that the falling wage trendwill be permanent?2. Why might the Federal Reserve lower interestrates for the 13th time since January 2001?3. According to former Labor Secretary Reich, whatshould American society do about eroding wages?

E C O N O M Y

Some workers have lost...2001 salary 2002 salary

Musicians, composers $92,300 $39,572

Auctioneers $94,536 $41,236

Dentists $86,424 $72,124

Advertising sales $54,808 $47,632personnel

Public relations $53,312 $47,840specialists

Economists $58,604 $56,524

...while others have gained2001 salary 2002 salary

Dietitians $32,552 $89,190

Household cleaners $13,936 $26,780

Physical-ed teachers $44,980 $62,868

Law teachers $88,764 $117,208

Pharmacists $67,132 $87,360

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Challenger, Gray & Christmas

20 time, january 20, 2003

The Real Face ofHomelessness More than ever, it is mothers with kids who are ending up on the streets of U.S.cities. Bush has a plan, but will it help?

By JOEL STEIN

The bush administration has decided tomake the homeless problem a target of com-passionate conservatism, which got pushed

back after Sept. 11, when conservatism was every-where but compassion was available only for theattack victims. And it’s putting its central domesticdoctrine to the test on an issue on which Demo-crats have been unable to show much progress. It’sa good choice, not only because the expectations areso low after decades of failure but also because it isunassailable in its immediate need.

With a freak-show economy in which unem-ployment has reached 6%—a 50% increase sinceNovember 2000—but housing prices have stayedat or near historic highs, the number of homelessappears to be at its highest in at least a decade ina wide range of places across the U.S., accordingto Bush’s own homelessness czar. “It’s embar-rassing to say that they’re up,” says czar PhilipMangano of the number, “but it’s better to face thetruth than to try to obfuscate.”

The first g.o.p. member to pick up on this wasSusan Baker, who had the ability to get the WhiteHouse’s attention because she’s the wife of JamesBaker, chief of staff to Ronald Reagan, Secretaryof State to Bush’s father and, more important,the guy who ran W.’s election-after-the-electioncampaign in Florida. Baker is co-chairwoman ofthe National Alliance to End Homelessness, acause in which she became interested in the early1980s, when she got involved in organizing D.C.food banks.

Baker read a 1998 study by University of Penn-sylvania professor of social work Dennis Culhanethat suggested that the most efficient solution tohomelessness was to provide permanent housing

to the “chronic homeless”—those helpless cases,usually the mentally ill, substance abusers or verysick—who will probably be homeless for life.

Three weeks after Bush named Mel Martinez hisHousing and Urban Development (hud) Secre-tary, Baker landed a meeting with him. She soldhim Culhane’s research, arguing that with just200,000 apartments, the Administration could endchronic homelessness in 10 years. The meetingwent so well that the plan became Bush’s officialstance on homelessness: the 2003 budget has fourparagraphs promising to end chronic homeless-ness in a decade.

That’s the compassionate part. Here’s the con-servative side: Bush isn’t spending any money onthis. While hud already spends 30% of its homelessdollars on permanent housing, all the Adminis-tration has added so far for its new push is $35 mil-lion, scraped together from within the existingbudgets of three departments. To give a sense ofhow much that means in Washington budgetaryterms, $35 million is equal to the money set asideto help keep insects from crossing the border.Although last month hud touted the $1.1 billion inthe budget for homeless services as the largestamount of homeless assistance in history, it’s aboutthe same as the amount set aside before NewtGingrich’s Congress made major cuts. And theAdministration, more quietly, also announced a30% cut in operating funds for public housing.

Given that so many are without a home buthave temporary shelter, the real policy debate isno longer about whether society is responsible forkeeping people out of the cold—we have agreed itis—but whether it is obligated to give them some-where permanent to live. By fighting to endchronic homelessness, the Bush Administrationargues that we need to give houses to those whoare incapable of providing for themselves. Theothers will have to weather the storm in a shelter,if it can be built fast enough. π

Questions

1. What does a recent study suggest is the mostefficient solution for homelessness? 2. How does the Bush Administration plan to payfor its new policy on the homeless?

E C O N O M Y

By NANCY GIBBS

We name our shuttlesfor our aspirations—At-

lantis, Challenger, Dis-

covery, Endeavour—the risks built into the

very idea. Columbia, the fleet’spioneer, was named after an oldBoston sloop that was the firstAmerican ship to circumnavigatethe globe, carrying a cargo of otterskins to China. Any risk much re-peated can become routine, andso it was for shuttle flights, exceptwhen they become tragic. That’s when we are re-minded that knowledge doesn’t come easy andthat many consequences are unintended, espe-cially when we set off on an adventure.

It’s strange how we glimpse the impossibleonly when it fails. How can this spacecraft exist,one that leaves the earth like a ballistic missile, afragile plane strapped to half a million gallons ofexplosive fuel, but two weeks later returns as aglider, swooping in wide S turns back to earthunder nature’s power alone? The engineers whobuild these things know that so much has to workso perfectly and with such precise timing thatwe should expect them to fail catastrophicallyevery 100 missions or so. That’s why nasa must beAmerica’s most optimistic government agency,that it can keep muscling forward in the face ofsuch odds. Columbia was the 88th mission sincethe Challenger was lost in January 1986—oneflight lost to the cold, one perhaps to the heat.

This crew flew into that anniversary andmarked the moment on board. Mission chief RickHusband called for a moment of silence. “Theymade the ultimate sacrifice, giving their lives totheir country and mankind,” he said of the as-tronauts of Challenger and Apollo 1, whose threeastronauts died in a launch-pad fire in January1967. “Their dedication was an inspiration to each

of us.” It would be cheaper andsafer to explore space with cam-eras and computers rather thanmen and women. But somethingwould be lost as well, somethingbrave and passionate that wassent in the messages and shownin the lives of the Columbia

crew, who knew better thanmost the risks they took.

More than half the crew wererookies, who seemed to delightin the surprises of space, highlydisciplined engineers and doc-tors reveling in a place where

rules are broken, where physics plays games—Look, my cup is floating. Whatever their special-ties, all were teachers. They were growing bonecells and prostate-cancer cells and protein crystals,studying the effect of dust storms on the global cli-mate and space flight on the cardiovascular sys-tem. Physicist Michael Anderson, who used tobuild moon houses for his sister’s Barbies, oncetold a group of second-graders, “Whatever youwant to do in life, you are training for it now.” Athis old grade school in Avondale, Ariz., where hissister teaches, there were shuttle-shaped posterssaying you are my hero, michael andersonand the sky’s the limit.

The astronauts’ final day began with Scotland

the Brave, piped over the radio. The song wasfor Laurel Clark, the doctor from Iowa who wascoming to the end of her first space flight. Did sheknow the words? “Wild are the winds to meetyou. Staunch are the friends that greet you, kindas the love that shines from fair maidens’ eyes.”Her friends and family had been waiting to greether from the moment she left. After Columbia lift-ed off safely, Clark’s brother Daniel Salton told theMilwaukee Journal Sentinel that he realized hehad been holding his breath for about 10 minutes.“Anyone who has watched [video of the] Chal-

lenger can’t even hardly bear going through” the

Seven Astronauts, One FateS P A C E

time, february 10, 2003 21

point where the Challenger exploded, herother brother Jon said. “After that point, youcan relax.” Clark’s son Iain said he wishedsomeone else could have gone instead of hismom because he was missing her. The fearsthat weighed on her family sat lightly on her.“To me, there’s a lot of different things that wedo during life that could potentially harm us,and I choose not to stop doing those things,”she said. “They’ve all come to accept that it’swhat I want to do.”

So the reunions were ready, the celebrationswaiting at the Kennedy Space Center, whereColumbia was due to land. The countdownclock in Florida had started counting back up,when the landing time had passed and theshuttle had not arrived. People watching ineastern Texas heard a crushing rumble outside,the dogs whined, and horses started, and a poi-sonous rain of broken shuttle pieces fell ontobackyards and roadsides and parking lots,through the roof of a dentist’s office, bits ofmachinery in Nacogdoches.

It tells you something about America’s newreflexes that when Columbia vanished, nasachief Sean O’Keefe called the White Houseand a Cabinet office that didn’t even existwhen the Challenger crashed: Homeland Se-curity. “There are no survivors,” the Presidentsaid, but by then we had been watching theendless video of what looked like the shootingstars of August, knowing that those brightwhite puffs of star were made of metal andrubber and men and women. Like other fieryimages, this one keeps replaying in the darklong after you turn it off, and while it felt likean attack on the calm of this watchful winter, inthis case there was no apparent evil, no enemyother than the limits of man and machinesand the tension between the goals we set andthe risks we take. π

Questions

1. What makes nasa the most “optimistic gov-ernment agency”?2. What anniversary was observed during Co-

lumbia’s ill-fated last mission?

S P A C E

22 time, february 10, 2003

The Shuttle’s Glory and TragedyOver three decades and 113 flights,

the winged craft has made history but alsobrought disaster and controversy

Jan. 5, 1972 President Richard Nixon orders the developmentof a reusable space shuttle that can take off like a rocket, orbit theEarth and land like an airplane. As approved, the program calls fora vehicle that is smaller and less expensive than initially envisioned

April 12, 1981 The first shuttle, Columbia, is launched intospace. The flight lasts slightly more than two days; its purpose is primarily to test the spacecraft’s systems

June 18, 1983 Sally Ride, traveling on Challenger, becomes thefirst American woman in space. The crew deploys two communica-tions satellites

Aug. 30, 1983 Guion Bluford, aboard Challenger, becomes thefirst African American in space

Nov. 28, 1983 Columbia ferries into orbit the first Spacelab, amodular collection of experiments designed by NASA and the EuropeanSpace Agency, and then brings it back to Earth. A total of 24 Spacelabmissions would be flown with various partners over the next 14 years

Feb. 7, 1984 Bruce McCandless makes the first untetheredspace walk, from Challenger

Jan. 28, 1986 Challenger, with teacher Christa McAuliffe aboard,explodes 73 seconds after lift-off. Investigators determine that rubberrings in a solid rocket booster turned brittle during a cold snap, allowingflammable gases to burn through and detonate the external fuel tank

Sept. 29, 1988 After the whole fleet was grounded for almostthree years, shuttle Discovery returns to space

May 4, 1989 Shuttle Atlantis lifts the unmanned spacecraftMagellan into orbit, from which it is successfully launched on its 15-month journey to Venus

Oct. 18, 1989 Atlantis ferries the spacecraft Galileo into orbit.Six years later, it becomes the first man-made probe to orbit Jupiter.Critics had voiced concern that Galileo’s plutonium power sourcemight release radioactive debris in the event of a shuttle accident, butNASA points out that Galileo’s power source is designed to survive a fieryre-entry intact

April 26, 1990 Discovery releases the Hubble space tele-scope. Scientists determine that the telescope’s mirror is flawed, andin a subsequent flight in December 1993, astronauts execute acomplicated series of space walks to replace Hubble’s optics. The repairs enable the telescope to produce stunning images of theEagle nebula

May 7, 1992 Shuttle Endeavour, built to replace Challenger,takes its first flight

June 29, 1995 Atlantis is the first shuttle to dock with Russ-ian space station Mir

Oct. 29, 1998 Senator John Glenn, who in 1962 became thefirst American to orbit the earth in a Mercury capsule, returns tospace aboard Discovery at the age of 77

Dec. 4, 1998 The crew of Endeavour begins assembly of the International Space Station

Feb. 1, 2003 Twenty-two years after its first flight in space, Columbia breaks up on reentry to Earth

Who’s the No. 1Palestinian Now?As President Bush immerses himself in the Middle East, Mahmoud Abbasand Yasser Arafat are jostling for the title

By MATT REES

Mahmoud abbas and yasser arafat are twosulky guys. When Arafat wanted to bringhis wife Suha to the White House for the

signing of the 1993 peace agreement with Israel,Abbas, one of the main Palestinian negotiators,objected to the presence of the Palestinian firstlady, widely regarded within Arafat’s circle as aninterloper. Suha stayed home and Abbas attendedthe Rose Garden ceremony with President BillClinton, but on the plane to Washington, accordingto two top officials of the Palestine LiberationOrganization (p.l.o.), Arafat fumed all the way. Theincident, says an Arafat aide, broke the three-decade bond between the Palestinian leader andhis No. 2 at the p.l.o.; they haven’t trusted one an-other since, says the aide.

As Abbas, now the Palestinian Prime Minis-ter, prepares for a summit with U.S. PresidentGeorge Bush, Arafat has entered what may proveto be his most significant sulk yet. Bush wantsmore than a reaffirmation of their commitment tohis road map for peace in the Middle East; he is

expected to demand a timetable for progress andgenuine action on the ground. Israeli Prime Min-ister Ariel Sharon last week signaled that he is will-ing, but Abbas, more commonly known as AbuMazen, may emerge as the weak link.

The emergence of Abbas as Prime Minister hasput even greater distance between the two oldallies. The idea of creating the new post arose outof U.S. and Israeli demands that Arafat’s power bediminished. Arafat tried to block it but ultimatelycould not face down the power of the U.S. Whenthe Fatah central committee voted on whether tonominate Abbas for Prime Minister, the tally was16 to 1. The only vote against was cast by Arafat,who was so angry at the result that, according tosenior Fatah officials, he refused to speak to any-one—even his bodyguards—for two days.

To succeed as Prime Minister, Abbas must notonly survive Arafat’s subversions but also winconcessions from Sharon. He hopes to achievethe latter goal by reducing the violence against Is-raelis. To do that, he’s working to persuade Hamas,the militant Islamic group, to observe a trucewith Israel.

In a meeting of his Likud Party’s parliamen-tary faction, Sharon said the Israeli “occupation” ofthe West Bank and Gaza Strip couldn’t continueindefinitely. Israeli right-wingers were outragedthat Sharon should be the first Prime Minister torefer to the country’s presence in those areas as an“occupation.” The attorney general advised that theofficial terminology should be “disputed territo-ries.” But Palestinians welcomed Sharon’s candor.

As for Abbas, he’s handling his foxy formerboss carefully. After his three-hour meetingwith Sharon last week, he went straight to Ra-mallah to report the details to Arafat. The nextday, Arafat asserted his relevance by calling ameeting of the p.l.o.’s executive committee todiscuss an Abbas-Sharon parley. Abbas usu-ally attends such functions. This time, in thetradition of sulks and boycotts, he did not. π

Questions

1. What concessions does Mahmoud Abbashope to make in upcoming peace negotiations?2. What concessions has Ariel Sharon made?

time, june 9, 2003 23

M I D D L E E A S T

24 time, may 26, 2003

By MICHAEL ELLIOTT

For scott schlageter, 35, an americanprocurement manager for the Saudi airforce, it was just another expat’s night inRiyadh. He was watching an Antonio Ban-deras thriller, curled up on the sofa in his

home in al-Jadawel, a gated town-house com-plex in the Saudi Arabian capital. Suddenly thelights died, and the tv zapped off. Schlageter sawa flash and felt a thundering explosion that blewout all his windows.

At that very moment, similar assaults wereunder way in two other residential areas. Fourmiles away, at a complex that housed dozens ofAmericans, a pair of cars were on a deadly mis-sion. The first, a Ford Crown Victoria sedan filledwith terrorists armed with Kalashnikov assaultrifles, sped up to the compound’s security check-point. The men mowed down the guards and re-moved a 3-ft.-high steel barrier that protectedthe compound. The second vehicle, a Dodgepickup loaded with explosives, barreled into acentral area and exploded between two five-storybuildings. At the nearby al-Hamra complex, twoother explosives-laden vehicles were detonatednear a pool where a party was in progress. Bythe time the smoke cleared from the three assaultslast Monday, 34 were dead, including nine Amer-icans, and 200 more were wounded.

Terror struck again just four days later. In theMoroccan city of Casablanca, five suicide bombershit within 20 minutes of one another, spreadingdeath and destruction across an array of targets:a Spanish social club, a hotel, a Jewish communitycenter and cemetery, a restaurant next to Bel-gium’s consulate. Nearly half of the 41 who losttheir lives had been at the club, Casa d’Espana,where two suicide bombers muscled in after slit-ting the throat of a guard. Within a day, Moroccanauthorities had rounded up a number of Islamicmilitants and had in custody one man who had

been detained before his bomb exploded.Before Riyadh and Casablanca, it was tempting,

if just for a moment, to believe that the war on ter-rorism was going well, that the big picture was ofone success after another. Then reality returnedwith a vengeance. After the latest blasts, no one istalking about turning any tide. Instead, the worldis focused again on mourning, on soul search-ing, on how to deliver an effective response. Makeno mistake about it: Islamic extremists are stillangry enough, and organized enough, to causeconsiderable damage to the U.S. and its allies.

Was it al-Qaeda again? Although there is not yetdefinitive proof, the attacks in Riyadh, Americanofficials say, bore all the hallmarks of the organi-zation. The terrorist training camps in Afghanistanand the safe haven al-Qaeda constructed therehave been dismantled. But the network remainsformidable, U.S. officials say. “Al-Qaeda still retainsthe ability to plan and launch terrorist attacks, in-cluding in this country,” says a U.S. official.

WHERE’S BIN LADEN?For most Americans, “winning” the war on ter-rorism means a clear victory over al-Qaeda. Thearrests on April 29 in Pakistan of Walid bin Attash,suspected of organizing the 2000 bombing of theu.s.s. Cole at the Yemeni port of Aden, and Ali Abdal-Aziz, an alleged paymaster of the Sept. 11 team,were just the latest in an impressive series of arrestsof leading al-Qaeda figures.

As for bin Laden himself, analysts generallybelieve he is still alive and probably capable of get-ting messages to his followers, if only by the slowmeans of personal courier. Both cia and fbi coun-terterrorism officials think he is hiding some-where in the mountains along the border be-tween Afghanistan and Pakistan. Capturing binLaden—whose name Bush has not publicly ut-tered unprompted since February 2002—would behugely satisfying to Americans. But it is not clearwhat effect taking bin Laden “dead or alive”

Why the War on Terror Will Never End Bomb attacks in Riyadh and Casablanca suggest that even on the run, the al-Qaeda network remains a deadly serious threat to the West

T H E W A R O N T E R R O R I S M

time, may 26, 2003 25

would actually have on terrorism today. Manyanalysts feel strongly that measuring successagainst al-Qaeda by the number of leaders cap-tured is mistaken. Lopping off the beast’s headmay not kill its body.

HOW BIG A THREAT?Is al-Qaeda as powerful as it once was, more thana year and a half after Sept. 11? Is it still a threat toAmerica? The answers are: no and yes. Improve-ments in security and surveillance mean it wouldbe much harder for the organization to pull off along-planned, complex, relatively expensive oper-ation in the West like the one that occurred onSept. 11. There are also better controls on theinternational flow of funds to terrorist groups. Butal-Qaeda, says Roland Jacquard, a well-knownFrench expert on terrorism, doesn’t need as much

money as it once did. “What cost al-Qaeda millions,” he says, “was thecamps. The group doesn’t have thesame financial needs as it did before.”The Bali bombing cost perhaps$35,000 to pull off, a sum easily gath-ered from the credit-card fraud andpetty-crime networks that certain Is-lamist extremists run.

It also is clear that the destructionof the Afghan camps, however use-ful, had one perverse and unintendedeffect. Local terrorist chiefs no longerdepend on anything from bin Ladenand his top brass except for ideologi-cal inspiration.

A team of 66 fbi personnel is work-ing closely with Saudi authorities asthey sift through the debris at thewrecked compounds. Sources say theSaudis, who did not cooperate effec-tively with U.S. law enforcement afterearlier attacks inside Saudi Arabia in-volving Americans, are being helpfulthis time. Saudi officials have beenconducting an exercise in damage con-trol on American tv, telling the worldthey will crack down on terrorism andits financing as never before. Yet acting

forcefully would represent a risk for the House ofSaud, which has long drawn legitimacy from deeplyreligious Muslims.

Perhaps the Saudi government will break withpast habits. But even if it does, those terroristswho believe with a religious conviction that the livesof Americans and their friends are fair game willcontinue their unending war. These days, whenScott Schlageter leaves al-Jadawel for a spin in hiscar, he wears a white shirt and a red-checked Arabheaddress. That way, he hopes, nobody will mistakehim for an infidel. π

Questions

1. Where do western experts believe Osama binLaden is hiding? 2. Compare the threat that al-Qaeda poses today tothe threat it posed in the fall of 2001.

T H E W A R O N T E R R O R I S M

Al-HamraHousingComplexR I Y A D H

VinnellCompound

Al-JadawelCompound

ANATOMY OF AN ATTACKAt 11:30 p.m. on May 12 in a suburb of Riyadh, terrorists in bomb-laden cars targeted three complexes housing Westerners—detonating their explosives within minutes of one another and killing 34

AL-HAMRA COMPLEX is enclosed by a 20-ft.-high wall. Both Westerners and Arabs occupy this upscale compound, one of many in Riyadh. Last week’s blast destroyed about 150 of al-Hamra’s residences

Attackers in two cars

shoot their way past the main gate

1

Still firing, the bombers

head to the recreation area

2

The bombers

detonate their explosives

3

Tenniscourts

Mainentrance

Offices

Mainpool

Apartments

Britishschool

Recreation area

ShopsTrack

Ad-Dammam

Al-Jinad

riya

Khora

is

DOWNTOWN

Ring R

oad East

6 miles6 km

150 ft.40 m

SAUDIARABIA

IRAQ

YEMEN

Riyadh

Red Sea

Persian Gulf

Com

poun

dwal

l

26 time, may 5, 2003

By MICHAEL D. LEMONICK and ALICE PARK

So far, the u.s. has been lucky. it hasbeen nearly six months since the sarsoutbreak emerged and more than sixweeks since the illness spread from itsbirthplace in southern China to put the

world on alert. Yet with more than 4,800 cases inat least 26 countries to date, a disease that hasrocked Asian markets, ruined the tourist tradeof an entire region, nearly bankrupted airlinesand spread panic through some of the world’slargest countries has largely passed the U.S. by.

Americans should not count on their sophisti-cated health-care system to protect them. Chinamay be relatively backward, but Hong Kong, witha modern medical system, has experienced aboutas many deaths as have been reported in the restof China put together. And only a few hours’ drivefrom Buffalo, N.Y., just across the Canadian border,Toronto thought it had done just about every-thing possible to contain its outbreak—yet it keepslosing ground.

With fewer than 300 known sars deaths so far,the worldwide toll is tiny compared with, say, the3 million people who died of aids last year. But ifsars continues to spread, its numbers could sky-rocket. Its overall death rate of about 6% is farlower than that of aids, Ebola or malaria, but ifenough people catch the illness, even a low ratecould cause a catastrophe. The Spanish flu epi-demic of 1918–19 had a death rate of less than 3%,but so many people became infected that it killedmore than 20 million people in just 18 months.

The financial toll, meanwhile, is already cata-strophic. All told, says the World Health Organi-zation (who), the global cost of sars is approaching$30 billion. Nobody can forecast how much worseit could get. The more victims there are, the greaterthe chance that sars will spread—and there may bea lot more cases in China than anyone realizes.

CURBING THE SPREADDespite intensive research in labs all over theworld, scientists still have more questions thananswers about sars and the coronavirus that caus-es it. One mystery is where the disease came from.Coronaviruses have long been known to veteri-nary medicine because they routinely infect live-stock, ducks and other domestic animals. In hu-mans they had never caused anything worse thana cold, but this strain is clearly different.

Meanwhile, top virologists in the U.S., Canada,Hong Kong, Germany and several other nationshave linked up to create a sort of virtual researchlab. Their goal: to understand the virus itself. Theyidentified the sars virus several weeks ago, andnow they are trying to come up with diagnostictests. The virtual lab and independent biotechcompanies have already come up with severaltests, but they are not yet reliable enough to bewidely deployed.

Yet another open question is precisely how thedisease spreads. Doctors first concluded that theagent responsible for sars is transmitted by dropletsexpelled by coughs or sneezes. After the burst ofcases in Hong Kong’s Amoy Gardens complex andthe particularly aggressive spread of sars in Toron-to among health-care workers, however, scientistsnow speculate that there may be other mechanismsas well. In Amoy Gardens, for example, transmissionmay have occurred via contaminated fecal matterleaking from a broken sewage pipe. That wouldexplain the lack of direct contact, as well as the factthat all these cases, unlike those in mainland Chinaand Toronto, are characterized by severe diarrhea.

RAPID MUTATIONIt may also be that the microbe has mutated intoseveral subtly different strains producing differ-ent symptoms. This might explain some of theperplexing transmission patterns seen on planes:people sitting next to sars victims did not always

THE TRUTH ABOUT SARS It’s deadly, infectious and not going away. What public-health officialshave learned about the new virus—and how scared we should be

W O R L D H E A L T H

time, may 5, 2003 27

get infected, while those across the aisle some-times did. Perhaps the latter had used a lavatory im-mediately after an infected passenger.

Another factor scientists do not understand is thesuperspreader, a person who appears to pass thedisease on with extraordinary efficiency. Part ofthe explanation may be in the individual’s genetics.“We don’t know what those genetic factors areyet,” says Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the Na-tional Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases(niaid), “but they’re not necessarily related tohow sick the person is.” Some experts suspectthat superspreaders might have a more virulentstrain of coronavirus or be co-infected with othermicrobes. Having multiple infections may, thesescientists speculate, increase one’s chance of pass-ing on the disease.

The risk of death from sars, meanwhile, mayhave less to do with a particular strain of thevirus and more to do with the body’s reaction to it.“The immunological and inflammatory responseof the body,” says Fauci, “could be contributing sig-nificantly to the damage in the lungs.” But nailingthat down, along with questions of whether sur-vivors become immune to further infection andwhether the disease is permanently with us, likeaids, will take more research.

So will the search for a vaccine. The biotechcompany GenVec announced plans last week tocollaborate with niaid on a strategy to develop avaccine. And the U.S. Army Medical ResearchInstitute for Infectious Disease is screening thou-sands of compounds to see if any might slow orstop the disease.

WILL IT BREAK OUT HERE?While the U.S. is better equipped than most coun-tries to detect and contain epidemics, it’s pureluck that it has not been hit harder. The more timethat passes, the better the U.S. can learn from theexperience of other countries. But as long as thereare even small pockets of infection lingering any-where in the world, an outbreak is always a threat.In a world as interconnected as ours, it may just bea matter of time before sars strikes in the U.S. theway it has elsewhere. “It’s too soon to count ourchickens,” says Fauci. “This is an evolving epi-demic, and we need to take it very seriously.” π

Questions

1. What financial impact has the sars outbreakhad to date?2. According to the article, why hasn’t the U.S.been hit harder by sars?

W O R L D H E A L T H

Switzerland1

Spain1

South Africa1

Romania1

Bulgaria1

Kuwait1

Ireland1

India1

Japan2 Brazil

2

Sweden3

Mongolia5

Italy4

Australia4

France5

Britain6

Germany7

Taiwan49

United States41

Philippines42

Malaysia52

Thailand72

Vietnam635

Canada14220

Singapore19821

Mainland China2,753

122

Hong Kong*1,527

121

Indonesia1

China also reports about 1,700 suspected cases not yet confirmed as SARS

Canada also reports about 200 suspected cases not yet confirmed as SARS

*Hong Kong is a SpecialAdministrative Region of China

TIME Map by Joe Lertola

Sources: World Health Organization, Chinese Ministry of Health, Health Canada,

Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care. Data as of April 26

Infections One cube equals one SARS case

Countries where SARS has spread

from person to person locally

Countries where SARS has been reported but

where there has been no local spread

One cube equals one death from SARSFatalities

KEY

GLOBAL REACH�More than 4,800 cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) had been reported to the World Health Organization by last week. Nearly 300 people had died, most of them in China and Southeast Asia

28 time, january 13, 2003

By ROMESH RATNESAR

Late last month yongbyon was the siteof a party of sorts, thrown by 100 North Ko-rean officials and attended by the two U.N.weapons inspectors assigned to monitorthe complex for signs that North Korea is

trying to restart its nuclear-weapons program. Infull view of the inspectors, the North Korean offi-cials cut dozens of seals from a 5-megawatt nuclearreactor—reopening it for the first time in nearly adecade—and covered over U.N. surveillance cam-eras fixed to the walls of the plant. When they fin-ished the task, the hosts celebrated with a roundof beers.

They were just getting started. The next day,North Korean scientists began removing seals andsurveillance cameras from a cooling pond wherespent fuel rods had been lying untouched. Theyreopened a nearby facility designed to extractplutonium, which can be used to fashion nuclearbombs, from the spent fuel. Appearing at the doorof the Yongbyon guesthouse accommodating thetwo U.N. inspectors, a smiling North Korean offi-cial read aloud a letter informing them it was timeto leave—immediately. The official volunteeredthat there were in fact two seats on the next AirKoryo flight from Pyongyang to Beijing.

Thus did the North Korean regime escalate ashowdown that began last October, when it con-firmed U.S. intelligence reports that it was illegallybuilding a new uranium-enrichment factory—another pathway to the Bomb. The expulsion of theinspectors was the clearest sign yet that Pyongyangis intent on pushing the stand-off to the brink. It isunknown whether North Korea has ever actuallyconstructed a nuclear weapon. But given the rela-tive simplicity of making a crude device, some U.S.analysts suspect that it has a bomb, albeit anuntested one.

The Bush Administration has done its best to

counsel the world not to panic, making daily ap-peals to give diplomacy a chance. But with eachnew North Korean gambit, that official noncha-lance sounds more off-key. Seemingly overnight,the U.S. begins the New Year eyeball to eyeballwith a paranoid, ruthless regime bent on obtainingnuclear weapons to complement an army thePentagon rates among the most formidable inthe world.

In 1994, when the Clinton Administration de-manded that North Korea shut down the Yongby-on reactor, the Pentagon drafted plans for strikes totake out North Korea’s key nuclear-productionsites. Pentagon officials say the plan has recentlybeen reviewed and modified, but few believe anyAmerican President would ever authorize it. Anattack on Pyongyang’s nuclear facilities couldspread lethal radiation over China, Japan and SouthKorea and trigger a North Korean counterattack.The regime boasts a standing army of 1 milliontroops—the world’s fourth largest—with an esti-mated 4.7 million more in reserve. It also keeps amassive store of artillery shells and hundreds ofScud missiles that it could load with biological andchemical agents and rain down on South Koreaand the 37,000 U.S. troops stationed there. SomeU.S. military officials believe that a conventionalexchange with North Korea could result in asmany as 1 million South Korean casualties. Evenso, a senior Bush Administration official says, thechief impediment to U.S. military action is thepossibility, however remote, that Pyongyang mighttry to use nuclear weapons on the battlefield.

Putting in place sanctions tough enough to inflictpersuasive pain on North Korea would take months,giving Pyongyang time to successfully extract newnuclear-weapons material. So is there another wayout? South Korean officials are pushing the U.S. tonegotiate a climb-down with Pyongyang; Kim,North Korea’s leader, they believe, is desperate toend his country’s isolation and would agree to give

How Dangerous Is North Korea? Dictator Kim Jong Il is pushing the world toward a showdown over his nuclear weapons. How will the Bush Administration respond?

N O R T H K O R E A

time, january 13, 2003 29

up his nuclear ambitions if the U.S. dangled thepromise of normalized relations and pledged not toattack him.

The cia isn’t sure the North Koreans have theskill to make a nuclear device small enough toload onto its missiles. But if they do, the danger isgreat. Pyongyang wields a huge stash of short- andmedium-range missiles, including at least 100Nodong missiles capable of striking Japan. U.S.intelligence officials say Pyongyang wants to be-come the first rogue state capable of striking theU.S. homeland with a missile. In 1998 the NorthKoreans test-fired a three-stage Taepo Dong-1 rock-et that landed in the Pacific Ocean. The Pentagonbelieves that North Korea is developing an inter-continental ballistic missile, the Taepo Dong-2,that could reach Alaska, Hawaii and possibly Cal-ifornia. The North Koreans had pledged not totest-fire any long-range weapons until this year. Iftesting resumes, a U.S. military official says, Py-ongyang may be able to target the continental U.S.

with a nuclear warhead“within several years.”

A U.S. intelligencesource says a Wash-ington-led embargoagainst Pyongyangwould take time toloosen the regime’sgrip on power, sinceKim has already shownthat he’s “willing to leta lot of people die off.”But eventually sanc-tions might take theirtoll, as even top gov-ernment officials andmembers of the secu-rity services began tofeel the pinch. “If theregime can no longermaintain the lifestylesof [those] people,” saysthe source, “it could bein serious trouble.”

A hard-line contain-ment policy, though,

would also erode Washington’s moral credibility,putting the U.S. in the position of starving a coun-try into submission. Even if the White House fig-ures a way out of the current standoff withoutresorting to sanctions or military force, the U.S.may at some point have to face the prospect ofoutright confrontation. Administration officialsconcede that the White House may wind up en-gaging in a direct dialogue with the North Kore-ans, while never calling it that. But the U.S. willdemand assurances that North Korea keep itscommitments this time. If it doesn’t, the WhiteHouse may yet decide that, as with Baghdad, theonly way to disarm the regime in Pyongyang is tochange it. π

Questions

1. What strategy is South Korea advocating to dif-fuse the situation with North Korea?2. What are some of the possible consequences ofa war with North Korea?

N O R T H K O R E A

50 mi.50 km

PYONGYANG

Yongbyon

Pakchon

TaechonMount

ChonmaHagap

Kumchang-riSinpo

Cheju

SEOUL

N O R T HK O R E A

CHINA

JAPAN

S O U T HK O R E A

Sea ofJapan

YellowSea

KoreaStrait

Uranium-enrichment site

Waste

ReprocessingResearch reactorPower reactor

North Korea’s knownnuclear facilities

Demilitarized ZoneA truce line between the North and South, 2.5 miles (4 km)

wide and 155 miles (250 km) long. In recent weeks, North Korean troops have brought machine guns into the zone, a violation of the armistice ending the Korean War

MEASURING THE THREATNorth Korea, though much poorer than South Korea, has a bigger army and is rapidly expanding its ballistic-missile arsenal. Experts fear it could threaten the continental U.S. with a nuclear, chemical or biological missile by 2015

Sources: The Military Balance 2002–2003; Globalsecurity.org; Center for Strategic and International Studies

TIME Graphic by Ed Gabel and Joe Lertola;text by Laura Bradford

*Estimated expenditure on South Korea

Sources: AP; Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute; Federation of American Scientists; U.S. State Department; TIME Research

Balance of Forces North Korea has more manpower, armor and artillery, but South Korea has a better-equipped navy, advanced technology and a powerful friend in the U.S.

621555

(0 U.S.)393

(0 U.S. forces)

2620

9010,400

4,774

2593,500

2,330

4.7 million4.5 million

1.1 million

37,140 U.S.686,000

$5.12 billion$10.6 billion*$11.8 billion

COMBATAIRCRAFT

SURFACECOMBATSHIPS

SUBS

ARTILLERY

BATTLETANKS

RESERVETROOPS

ACTIVETROOPS

MILITARYBUDGET

North Korea South Korea U.S. forcesin S. Korea

156

30 Worksheet Prepared by Time Learning Ventures

Name Date

The Truth About SARS1. What is the total number of sars cases re-ported in North and South America?

2. Name five countries that have no reportedsars cases.

3. What is the total number of sars deaths re-ported in Europe?

4. Name the five countries that have the most re-ported sars cases, from highest to lowest.

5. What is the total number of sars death re-ported in Asia?

6. In what western countries has sars been spreadfrom person to person locally?

How Dangerous Is North Korea?1. Describe what the demilitarized zone is.

2. How many known nuclear facilities doesNorth Korea have?

3. What is the difference between the number ofactive troops in North Korea and South Korea,including American troops in South Korea?

4. Name the capitals of North and South Korea.

5. True or false: South Korea and the U.S. spendmore than four times what North Korea does onmilitary expenditures for the Korean peninsula.

6. What is the total number of active and reservetroops for the defense of South Korea?

7. Compare the military strengths of North andSouth Korea.

✍WORKSHEET

Charts and Maps in FocusAccompanying “The Truth About sars” on page 26 and “How Dangerous Is North Korea?” on page28 are charts and maps that are full of information, but what does it all mean? Use this page to sharp-en your skills in reading and interpreting charts and maps.

Who’s BuggingCastro? Meet the intractable dissident who provoked Cuba’s alarming new crackdown on dissent

By TIM PADGETT

Oswaldo paya is something cuban presi-dent Fidel Castro has rarely, if ever, faced: adissident as hardheaded as he is. When Cas-

tro took power in 1959, Paya was the only kid inhis Havana primary school who refused to becomea Communist Youth member. Rather than escapeto Miami in the 1980 Mariel boatlift, he stayed inCuba to work for democratic reform. Now hisdoggedness has prompted oneof Castro’s most ironfisted crack-downs: scores of Paya’s fellowdissidents have been arrested fortreason and given lengthy prisonterms. Paya, 51, says he’s unde-terred. “We’re the first nonvio-lent force for change this islandhas ever known,” he told Time byphone from Havana. “Castrocan’t crush that, no matter how hard he tries.”

Paya, an engineer who bicycles to his job as ahospital-equipment technician, is also complicat-ing George W. Bush’s policy toward Cuba. TheU.S. President is expected to give an importantCuba policy speech next week. Given the jailing ofthe dissidents and the stunning executions ofthree Cubans for the noncapital crime of trying tohijack a ferry to Miami last month, the Adminis-tration’s natural inclination is to hammer El Co-mandante. But with some 40,000 Cubans in recentyears having openly endorsed Paya’s campaignfor a popular vote on expanding freedoms, hisChristian Liberation Movement (m.c.l.) has pro-duced what most Cuba watchers agree is the firstreal chance for democratic change on the island.IfBush is too bellicose, he risks provoking further

retaliatory measures by Castro, possibly even acrippling of Paya’s movement.

Paya, a devout Roman Catholic whose modelfor action is the work of civil rights icons likeMartin Luther King Jr., is in it for the long term.“Paya is unique,” says Jose Miguel Vivanco ofHuman Rights Watch in Washington. “He is open-ly challenging Castro’s system by using the systemitself.” Paya’s most effective tool has been his peti-tion drive, the Varela Project. Under Castro’s 1976constitution, a national referendum requires just10,000 signatures. Paya’s movement has so fargathered some 40,000, calling for a plebiscite onfree speech, multiparty elections and increasedprivate enterprise.

Castro peremptorily refuses to recognize thepetitions. But they have spawned a grass-rootsdissident network that finally spooked him intoaction. In March, with the aid of agents who hadinfiltrated the island’s opposition cells, Castro

rounded up more than 75 dissi-dents and journalists, most ofthem Paya lieutenants. In aspeech on May 1, Castro brandedthem “mercenaries on the pay-roll of Bush’s Hitler-like govern-ment,” which he claimed is poisedto invade Cuba.

At the same time, Paya, whowas widely cheered during a visit

to Miami this year, has helped bring that city’sonce rabidly anti-Castro politics toward a poten-tially more constructive center. Wresting the Cubadebate away from the pro-and anti-Castro ex-tremists may be Paya’s most helpful accomplish-ment. “This isn’t about warmongering anymore,”he says. “It’s a duel between power and spirit.” Fornow, Castro’s power has the upper hand; but forfour decades, Paya’s spirit has been indomitable—and he insists he’s not about to give up. π

Questions

1. What has been Oswaldo Paya’s most effective toolin pushing for change in Cuba?2. Describe the goals and form of Paya’s protestmovement. What U.S. figure is one of his models?3. Why is Paya complicating U.S. policy on Cuba?

time, may 19, 2003 31

C U B A

Oswaldo Paya’s ChristianLiberation Movement

(M.C.L.) has produced whatmost Cuba watchers agree

is the first real chance for democratic change

on the island.

32 Worksheet Prepared by Time Learning Ventures

Name Date

Current Events In ReviewTest your knowledge of stories covered in theCurrent Events Update by answering the following multiple-choice questions.

____ 1. The Bush Administration official who inFebruary 2003 made a presentation before the U.N. Security Council arguing for war with Iraq is:a. Donald Rumsfeld c. Dick Cheneyb. Colin Powell d. Paul Wolfowitz

____ 2. The second U.S.-appointed civilian chief of Iraq is:a. Jay Garner c. Tommy Franksb. David McKiernan d. Paul Bremer

____ 3. The new Palestinian Prime minister is:a. Mahmoud Abbas c. Suha Arafatb. Yasser Arafat d. Marwan Barghouti

____ 4. The current White House Counsel whois also a potential Supreme Court nominee is:a. John Ashcroft c. Abner Mikvab. Al Gonzales d. John Dean

____ 5. What was the intended destination ofthe Columbia space shuttle?a. Johnson Space Centerb. Goddard Space Centerc. Kennedy Space Centerd. Stennis Space Center

____ 6. The estimated amount ofmoney the Bush campaign hopes to raisefor the 2004 election is:a. $120 million c. $360 millionb. $240 million d. $480 million

____ 7. Federal Reserve Chairman AlanGreenspan recently signaled that he was pre-pared to cut short-term interest rates for the13th time since January 2001 to guard against:a. devaluation of the dollar c. inflation b. stock market volatility d. deflation

____ 8. The current Assistant Attorney General,who had a large part in shaping the usa PatriotAct, is:a. Viet Dinh c. Trent Lottb. John Ashcroft d. Tom Ridge

____ 9. The 1972 law that requires schools receiving federal funds to offer equal opportu-nities to men and women is called:a. Equal Rights Amendmentb. Title IXc. Entitlement Xd. The Jock Code

____ 10. Dirty-bomb suspect José Padilla, anAmerican citizen who allegedly met with senioral-Qaeda operatives in a plot to detonate a radiological device somewhere in the U.S., hasbeen officially classified as:a. a terrorist c. a traitorb. a security risk d. an enemy combatant

Match each of the locations below withthe description atright. Write the letterof the correct countryin the space provided.(Note: Not all answerswill be used.)A. AfghanistanB. CanadaC. ChinaD. Cuba E. EgyptF. GermanyG. IraqH. KuwaitI. MoroccoJ. North KoreaK. Saudi ArabiaL. United States

____ 11. The country that boasts the fourth-largest standing army in the world.

____ 12. Iraq invaded this country in 1990, leading to the first Gulf War.

____ 13. Birthplace of the sars outbreak.

____ 14. Sixty-six fbi personnel are working closely with authorities in thiscountry to investigate three recent concurrent terrorist attacks.

____ 15. The Executive Branch of this country’s government, on its own determination, can pick somebody up and hold him or her indefinitelywithout access to a court, to counsel or to the press.

____ 16. The President of this country recently ordered a major crackdownon dissidents, having them arrested for treason and giving themlengthy prison terms.

____ 17. To gain support in federal elections, the Chancellor of this countrycame out against military action in Iraq.

____ 18. This country fought a disastrous war with Iran during the 1980s.

____ 19. Al-Qaeda is suspected of bombing a Spanish social club, a hotel, a Jewish community center and cemetery, and a restaurant next to Belgium’s consulate in this country.

____ 20. The only western country that has had a significant outbreak of sars.

✍WORKSHEET

Answers Dissecting the Case (pages 2-3)

1. For the Administration’s case,the great value of Resolution 1441is the clarity with which it statesthat obstructing its terms consti-tutes a material breach that wouldprovoke “serious consequences.”2. The evidence includes the presence of al-Qaeda operatives inBaghdad and links between Bagh-dad and the band of Kurdish fundamentalists called Ansar al-Islam that has ties to al-Qaeda.

Awestruck (pages 4–5)

1. Pentagon leaders received intel-ligence information that wasthought to pinpoint the Baghdadbunker where Saddam was believed to be sleeping.2. Germany and France believedU.N. inspections should have beengiven more time; they also arguedthat there was some evidence thatinspections were succeeding.

Inside Saddam Hussein’s Head (page 6)

1. Saddam lived in “hothouse isolation” and had extremely limited contact with any ideas buthis own.2. Saddam may have sensed an opportunity for survival in his belief that the U.S. could not stomach high casualty counts. Experts also argue that for Sad-dam, death is a better alternativethan losing power.

Armed with Their Teeth (page 7)

1. The soldiers were ordered tokneel on one knee, point theirweapons away from the crowd and smile.2. The citizens’ primary needswere power and water. Some citi-zens of Najaf offered to join thefight against Saddam.

Building Analytical Skills (page 8)

1. In the top cartoon the eaglesrepresent the U.S. circling SaddamHussein; in the middle cartoon thesword represents force destroyingdiplomacy; in the bottom cartoonPresident Bush rides a bomb thatsymbolizes the cost of the war.2. The top cartoon suggests that theoutcome of a war is inevitable andthat Saddam is doomed. The mid-dle cartoon regrets the failure ofdiplomacy; the bottom cartoonhints that the war’s cost will lead toeconomic instability in the U.S.3. The eagles, representing the U.S.,are a reference to the practice ofvultures circling a dying person.The article reveals Saddam’s ruth-lessness in attaining power, alongwith his insistence on absolute loy-alty and an insulated worldview. IfSaddam lost power, it would de-stroy the monumental myth he hasspent his life creating.4. The famous phrase to which thiscartoon alludes is, “The pen is

mightier than the sword.” The car-toonist reveals his regret that forceprevailed over diplomacy. ThePentagon pre-empted its plans and launched an early attack on aBaghdad bunker in which Saddamwas believed be sleeping. 5. The cartoonist is referring to theAir Force’s largest non-nuclearbomb, which has been dubbed“The Mother of All Bombs,” sug-gesting that a war with Iraq willlead to huge deficits for the U.S.government. The cartoon portraysPresident Bush as a cowboy orrodeo rider trying to tame thehuge deficit that would result froma war. The Bush Administrationmight deny that the cost of the warwould lead to deficits and mightalso argue that deficits aren’t necessarily a bad thing for theeconomy.

Can Anyone Govern This Place? (pages 9–10)

1. The problems facing post-warIraq include bringing security anddemocracy to the people, restoringelectricity and running water,bringing rampant crime undercontrol and rebuilding thebombed-out infrastructure. Gar-ner was unsuccessful in tacklingthese problems and was relievedof his job after just a month.2. Bremer made it clear that Saddam’s loyalists from his now-outlawed Baath Party will nolonger be given key positions at government ministries. UnderBremer, soldiers are going into adifferent section of town every dayto help with garbage collectionand medical care.

The War Comes Back Home (pages 11–12)

1. Anyone arriving from one of 33mostly Muslim nations and seeking asylum in the U.S. will be automatically jailed while theasylum application is pending.2. The Executive Branch makesthis determination.

Civil Liberties versus National Security (page 13)

Answers will vary depending onthe issue selected and on students’opinions and experiences.

Taking Aim at 2004 (pages 14–15)

1. The Bush Administration viewstax cuts, along with preaching con-fidence, as key to improving theeconomy.2. The Bush campaign is planningto use the Powell Doctrine of over-whelming force in its fund-raisingefforts for the 2004 election, hoping to raise “more money than God.”

Bush’s Supreme Challenge (page 16)

1. Blocking Gonzales’s nominationmay play badly with Hispanic vot-ers, whose support Democrats seek.2. Republicans want a Justice whois strict and outspoken on coreconservative issues, namely abor-

tion and affirmative action; forthem Gonzales is too unpredictable,and perhaps too moderate.

Now She’s Got Game (page 17)

1. Title ix compliance can be shownin one of three ways: by making thepercentage of female athletes thesame as the percentage of femalestudents; by showing an ongoinghistory of increasing opportunitiesfor women; or by showing that theschool is accommodating the inter-ests and abilities of women.2. Due to a concern about quotas,U.S. Education Secretary Rod Paigeappointed a 15-member Commis-sion on Opportunity in Athletics toconsider changes to Title ix.

Where Did My Raise Go? (pages 18–19)

1. Many companies are holding theline on compensation so that theycan compete in an increasinglyglobal economy in which low costsare key to survival.2. to guard against deflation3. Reich recommends a major investment in public education.

The Real Face of Homelessness (page 20)

1. According to the study, the mostefficient solution to homelessnessis to provide permanent housingto the “chronic homeless”—usuallythe mentally ill, substance abusersor very sick—who will probably behomeless for life.2. The Administration has budget-ed $35 million, scraped togetherfrom within the existing budgetsof three hud departments.

Seven Astronauts, One Fate (pages 21–22)

1. The engineers who build theshuttles know that so much has towork so perfectly that we shouldexpect them to fail catastrophicallyevery 100 missions or so, yet theagency keeps muscling forward.2. the anniversary of the January1986 loss of the Challenger shuttle

Who’s the No. 1 Palestinian Now? (page 23)

1. Abbas hopes to reduce the violence against Israelis by persuading the terrorist groupHamas to observe a truce.2. For the first time, Sharon referred to Israel’s presence in theWest Bank and Gaza Strip as an“occupation,” outraging manyright-wing Israelis.

Why the War on Terror Will Never End (pages 24–25)

1. Both cia and fbi counterterror-ism officials think bin Laden ishiding somewhere in the moun-tains along the border betweenAfghanistan and Pakistan. 2. Improvements in security andsurveillance have made it muchharder for al-Qaeda to pull off along-planned, complex, relativelyexpensive operation in the West,

such as the one that occurred onSept. 11. There are also better controls on the flow of funds toterrorist groups. But because ofthe destruction of the terroristcamps in Afghanistan, the organi-zation does not need as muchmoney to function as it did before.

The Truth About SARS (pages 26–27)

1. The who says the global cost ofsars is approaching $30 billion.2. It’s pure luck that the U.S. hasnot been hit harder by sars.

How Dangerous Is North Korea? (pages 28–29)

1. South Korean officials are pushing the U.S. to negotiate aclimb-down with Pyongyang; theybelieve that Kim Jong Il, NorthKorea’s leader, is desperate to endhis country’s isolation and wouldagree to give up his nuclear ambi-tions if the U.S. dangled thepromise of normalized relationsand pledged not to attack him.2. Some U.S. military officials believe that a conventional exchange with North Korea couldresult in as many as 1 millionSouth Korean casualties; there isalso the possibility that NorthKorea might try to use nuclearweapons on the battlefield.

Charts and Maps in Focus (page 30)

The Truth about sars1. 2052. Answers will vary.3. 04. China (Hong Kong is a SpecialAdministrative Region of China,Singapore, Canada, Vietnam and Taiwan.5. 2756. the U.S., Canada, Great BritainHow Dangerous Is North Korea?1. a truce line between North andSouth Korea, 2.5 miles wide and155 miles long2. 123. 376,8604. North Korea: Pyongyang; SouthKorea: Seoul5. True6. 5,223,1407. North Korea has more troops,tanks and artillery, but SouthKorea has a better-equipped navy and an alliance with theUnited States.

Who’s Bugging Castro? (page 31)

1. Paya’s most effective tool is theVarela Project, a national petitiondrive calling for a plebiscite onfree speech, multiparty electionsand increased private enterprise.2. Paya’s goal is democratic reform;his method is nonviolence. MartinLuther King, Jr,. is a model. 3. If President Bush is too critical ofCastro, it could provoke furthercrackdowns on dissidents.

Current Events In Review (page 32)

1. b 2. d 3. a 4. b 5. c 6. b 7. d 8. a9. b 10. d 11. J 12. H 13. C 14. K 15. L 16. D 17. F 18. G 19. I 20. B

S P A C E

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