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FINAL Report
Glen Abbey Golf Club Redevelopment Commercial/Retail Market Review & Impact Study
Prepared for ClubLink Corporation ULC and ClubLink Holdings Limited
by IBI Group
October 31, 2016
IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT GLEN ABBEY GOLF CLUB REDEVELOPMENT COMMERCIAL/RETAIL MARKET REVIEW & IMPACT STUDY Prepared for ClubLink Corporation ULC and ClubLink Holdings Limited
Table of Contents
October 31, 2016 i
1 Introduction and Findings ................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Summary of Findings ............................................................................................... 1
2 Background and Context ................................................................................................... 3
2.1 Development Concept ............................................................................................. 4
3 Commercial Policy Review ................................................................................................ 7
3.1 Core Commercial ..................................................................................................... 7
3.2 Community Commercial ........................................................................................... 7
3.3 Neighbourhood Commercial .................................................................................... 7
3.4 Other Areas with Commercial Permissions ............................................................. 8
3.5 North Oakville Secondary Plan Areas ..................................................................... 9
3.6 Commercial/Retail Needs Studies ......................................................................... 10
3.6.1 Retail and Service Commercial Policy Review (2006) .............................. 10
3.6.2 Policy Discussion Paper – Commercial Uses (2010) ............................... 11
3.6.3 Livable Oakville MCR – Employment & Commercial Review (2016 - Ongoing) ................................................................................................... 12
3.6.4 Current Town of Oakville Commercial Supply Assessment ..................... 12
3.6.5 Town of Oakville Forecasted Future Demand/Supply .............................. 13
4 Forecasted Population and Commercial Space ............................................................ 17
4.1 Forecasted Population Growth – Town of Oakville ............................................... 17
4.2 Forecasted Commercial Growth – Town of Oakville ............................................. 17
5 Glen Abbey Golf Club Redevelopment Retail/Service Space Requirements ............. 19
5.1 Commercial Inventory in the Immediate Area........................................................ 20
6 Recent Trends in Retail .................................................................................................... 22
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Table of Contents (continued)
October 31, 2016 ii
List of Figures
Figure 1 - Site Location .................................................................................................................. 3
Figure 2 - Subject Site – Official Plan Land Use ............................................................................ 4
Figure 3 - Concept Plan for a Mixed-Use Redevelopment October 4, 2016 ................................. 4
Figure 4 - Development Concept - Mixed Use Components ......................................................... 5
Figure 5 - Concept Plan Breakdown .............................................................................................. 6
Figure 6 - North Oakville Employment & Commercial Areas ......................................................... 9
Figure 7 - Recent North Oakville Commercial Construction ........................................................ 10
Figure 8 - Retail Study Areas ....................................................................................................... 12
Figure 9 - Areas with Commercial Permissions ........................................................................... 15
Figure 10 - Immediate Commercial Inventory .............................................................................. 20
Figure 11 - Examples of Neighbourhood Commercial in Study Area .......................................... 20
Figure 12 - Examples of Core Commercial in the Study Area ..................................................... 21
List of Appendices
Appendix A: Terms of Reference
Appendix B: Proximate Retail Inventory
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COMMERCIAL/RETAIL MARKET REVIEW & IMPACT STUDY
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1 Introduction and Findings
1.1 Introduction
This retail market review provides an overview of the Town of Oakville’s retail policies and
hierarchy along with the retail context proximate to the proposed redevelopment of the Glen
Abbey Golf Club. This study also considers a square foot (sf) per capita analysis of the proposed
retail component to understand the potential demand for retail in the broader community. A high
level review component of Town-wide supply and demand is completed as part of a review of
the Employment and Commercial Review of the ongoing Municipal Comprehensive Review.
Finally a brief review of recent trends in the retail market and development industry is completed
to inform discussions regarding future retail demand for the town and region-wide.
This study uses the Terms of Reference for the Market Impact Study, available on the Town of
Oakville’s Development Application Guidelines/Terms of Reference website, as a guide to the
methodology. (See Appendix A)
1.2 Summary of Findings
The following provides a summary of the key findings of the retail/commercial market review.
The proposed redevelopment of Glen Abbey Golf Club includes a mix of
residential units, and commercial development (retail, service and office) on
the first and second floors of the mixed use buildings.
The proposed retail component is 62,900 sf, located in the ground floor of
five mixed use buildings, ranging from 6,000 sf to 20,000 sf.
The anticipated types of uses which will occupy the space will range from
2,000 to 4,000 sf and will service the local residents, visitors and other
businesses. A potential list of retail and service uses for the commercial
component is located in Section 2.1.
A separate town-wide commercial analysis done as part of the Municipal
Comprehensive Review, suggests that there will be a shortfall of 76,000 sm
(820,000 sf) commercial space based on current supply and demand until
2041. (See Section 3.6.3)
The same analysis suggests that the flexibility inherent in the North Oakville
Secondary Plan policies may lead to a greater shortfall as commercial
development may not be built to the extent that is required.
A square foot per capita analysis conducted for the proposed redevelopment
of the Glen Abbey Golf Club demonstrates that there is sufficient market
support/population for the proposed commercial component of the
redevelopment.
The existing commercial space in the immediate area of Glen Abbey is a mix
of Neighbourhood Commercial, and Core Commercial located at the
intersection of QEW and Dorval Drive. The Neighbourhood retail is
predominantly located in existing low density neighbourhoods.
There are a number of trends including e-commerce, Omnichannel shopping,
redevelopment of obsolete malls and the incorporation of retail in mixed use
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developments that are impacting the size, format and type of retail that is
being developed and is anticipated in the future.
The retail/service/office space proposed as part of the Glen Abbey Golf Club
redevelopment will be sufficient to service the immediate local community,
and will not impact the viability or planned function of existing or future
neighbouring retail.
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2 Background and Context
The site is located in the Glen Abbey community located in the west area of the Town of
Oakville. The site is bordered by Upper Middle Rd. W to the north, Sixteen Mile Creek to the
east, Dorval Drive to the south and low density residential developments to the west. The site is
currently the location of the 18-hole, 230 acre Glen Abbey Golf Course. The course has been
host of the Canadian Open 27 times and is owned by Clublink Corporation ULC and ClubLink
Holdings Limited. In addition to the golf course, there is a clubhouse with a restaurant, banquet
and meeting room facilities located near the 18th hole.
The historic RayDor Estate building is the home of Golf Canada, the Canadian Golf Museum
and Hall of Fame, and the TaylorMade Performance Lab. The building is excluded from the
current development proposal.
The site is designated Private Open Space and Natural Area in the current Official Plan, and
Residential Areas in the Urban Structure Plan. The site is surrounded by residential uses to the
south, west and north, and to the east of Sixteen Mile Creek.
Figure 1 - Site Location
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Figure 2 - Subject Site – Official Plan Land Use
2.1 Development Concept
Figure 3 - Concept Plan for a Mixed-Use Redevelopment October 4, 2016
The concept plan is for the proposed redevelopment of the Glen Abbey Golf Club which will offer
a variety of housing types, including singles, buffering the existing residential area, town homes
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and stacked townhomes, and apartment units. In total, there are 3,222 proposed residential
units, parkland, the preservation of the RayDor Estate (not part of this application) and a series
of trails.
Figure 4 - Development Concept - Mixed Use Components
The proposed redevelopment of the Glen Abbey Golf Club will also feature Neighbourhood
Commercial-type retail and a service commercial component to service local convenience
needs. This space will be located in the ground floor of the mixed use buildings, and offer a
number of flexible configurations, with a proposed maximum contiguous space of 4,000 sf (460
sm), in order to provide a variety of services for the immediate community.
Located in the proposed mixed use buildings, there is a total of 62,900 sf of retail and service
commercial space proposed in the concept plan. This space will be marketed to local–serving
retail and service businesses, and will be pedestrian-oriented. In addition, 58,500 sf of ground
floor and second floor office space will be above the retail space.
Proposed types of users anticipated to locate in the commercial and office space include:
Specialty food stores or convenience stores;
Cafes and small scale restaurants;
Miscellaneous retail stores (e.g. gifts, florist);
Apparel stores;
Daycares and tutoring;
Satellite banks and pharmacies;
Pet stores and groomers;
Personal services such as salons, dry cleaners and yoga studios;
Professional services such as lawyers, accountants and real estate offices; and
Local medical services such as doctors, dentists, physiotherapists and chiropractors.
It is anticipated that the commercial units will be between 2,000 sf and 4,000 sf per unit,
depending on the use. There are no large scale food or retail uses planned on site, nor will there
be any drive-through facilities. It is anticipated that the scale of the commercial development,
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and the types of retail/services offered, will draw predominantly from the new residential
population created on the Glen Abbey site.
Figure 5 - Concept Plan Breakdown
Glen Abbey Development Components
Units/GFA Non-Residential Breakdown GFA (sf)
Block 3
Low Density 141 Retail Area 19,626
Medium Density 299 Office Area 19,626
High Density 2,782 Block 4
Total Units 3,222 Retail Area 4,132
Office Area 0
Service/Office 62,871 Block 5
Retail 58,429 Retail Area 6,865
Total Non-Residential 121,300 Office Area 0
Block 6
Retail Area 24,963
Office Area 24,963
Block 19
Retail Area 7,285
Office Area 13,848
Non-Residential Summary
Retail Area 62,871
Office Area 58,437
Total
Residential Units
Non-Residential (sf)
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3 Commercial Policy Review
The Town of Oakville has a number of policies which address commercial development, their
location, uses and size. The following section will review current policies, existing and planned
retail/commercial areas and recent commercial studies conducted for the Town of Oakville.
The Livable Oakville, the 2009 Official Plan, applies to all lands excluding the North Oakville
Secondary Plan areas and the lands north of Highway 407. The Plan identifies six growth areas,
which are anticipated to have commercial development to support new residential populations.
There are currently three land use designations primarily for retail (commercial) uses:
Core Commercial;
Community Commercial; and
Neighbourhood Commercial.
3.1 Core Commercial
These lands “provide major concentrations of commercial facilities serving the broader regional
community”. (OP 13.3) They are located at the intersections of major arterial roads, with
proximity to highway access.
Permitted land uses include:
Retail and service uses including restaurants, food stores and motor vehicle
service stations;
Large format retail, retail warehouse, entertainment and recreational; and
Secondary function such as office and motor vehicle repair.
There are currently four areas with the core commercial designation in Oakville. All are located
in close proximity to a highway interchange and are some of the largest concentrations of
commercial permissions, and retail Gross Floor Area (GFA).
3.2 Community Commercial
These lands are intended to provide “a variety of retail and service commercial uses primarily
servicing the local surrounding community.” (OP 13.4) These lands are located at the
intersection of arterial roads or arterial and collector roads.
Permitted land uses include retail and service uses including restaurants, food stores and motor
vehicle service stations. Uses are to be developed in a nodal configuration, and are encouraged
to provide and maintain a food store as part of the node; and development “shall provide as a
grouping of retail and service commercial uses occupying a single site and/or functioning as a
single site with shared access, design, parking and landscaping”. (OP 13.4.5)
3.3 Neighbourhood Commercial
Lands designated Neighbourhood Commercial are intended to provide retail and service
commercial uses “primarily to service local convenience needs of the adjacent neighbourhoods.”
(OP 13.5) These uses are to be located on collector roads, or at the intersection of a collector
and arterial road with access to a local neighbourhood.
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Permitted land uses include:
A range of retail and service commercial including restaurants and food stores;
Residential permitted above ground floor retail; and
Office only as a secondary function and small in scale.
Additional policies pertain to Neighbourhood Commercial uses, including that these areas “shall
not exceed a maximum of 2,500 SM of floor area in retail and service commercial uses.” (OP
13.5.2) Development will be a maximum of 2 storeys, and consist of small groupings of retail and
service commercial uses in one or more buildings.
3.4 Other Areas with Commercial Permissions
Commercial development is also permitted in the Central Business District, as a part of mixed
use buildings within North Oakville, and the six identified Growth Areas. The Central Business
District is planned to serve the downtown centre as a main street, and provide community
shopping facilities to surrounding communities. This area is intended to include some retail and
service commercial intensification. Permitted uses include restaurants, retail and service
functions that are appropriate to a main street. Offices, hotels, entertainment facilities may also
be permitted. (OP Sec. 13.2)
The six identified Growth Areas are generally currently built out, but have policies to encourage
increased densities through mixed use. The areas considered Growth Areas are:
Midtown Oakville (Trafalgar Rd and the QEW);
Kerr Village (Kerr Street and Speers Road);
Bronte Village (Bronte Road and Lakeshore Blvd); and
Downtown Oakville (Lakeshore Blvd and Trafalgar Rd).
The Uptown Core, located at Dundas Street and Sixth Line (Central Area), is also a Growth Area
and is intended to be the focus of a new mixed use development and redevelopment with
emphasis on residential, office and commercial development. The Main Street District is planned
to be redeveloped with a mix of retail and service commercial uses on the ground floor with
residential and/or office uses above. (OP. 21.3.4)
Also a Growth Area, Palermo Village, at Dundas Street and Bronte Road, is to have “a clearly
defined main street with commercial development oriented to Old Bronte Road and Khalsa Gate”
(OP. 22.2.2 iv). Stand-alone retail and service commercial buildings are not allowed to exceed a
gross floor area of 6,000 sm (65,000 sf). In addition, Palermo Village extends into North Oakville,
and is included in the Palmero Village North Urban Core Area which has commercial
permissions and is included in a review of the commercial supply in North Oakville.
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3.5 North Oakville Secondary Plan Areas
Figure 6 - North Oakville Employment & Commercial Areas
The current North Oakville Secondary Plan Area (NOS East and West) are separate from
Livable Oakville, and have their own land use designations. There is currently no exclusive land
use that only permits retail and service commercial, instead, these uses are permitted in a
variety of forms in various designations, but in particular in the “Urban Core Areas” which are
planned for the densest development, and high order activities. Land use permissions include a
range of residential, retail and service commercial, entertainment, cultural business and
institutional uses. These uses are anticipated to come in a mixed-use format.
There are four areas designated as “Urban Core Areas”
Trafalgar Road Urban Core Area;
Dundas Street Urban Core Area;
Neyagawa Blvd. Urban Core Area; and
Palermo Village North Urban Core Area.
Limited retail will also be permitted in employment areas.
North Oakville is currently undergoing development, and new commercial uses are being
constructed, predominantly on the north side of Dundas Street. The new residential population
in North Oakville will drive demand for increased commercial uses, which are to be developed
predominantly in a mixed used format.
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Figure 7 - Recent North Oakville Commercial Construction
At buildout, North Oakville is expected to accommodate a population of 55,000 residents and
35,000 jobs.
3.6 Commercial/Retail Needs Studies
3.6.1 Retail and Service Commercial Policy Review (2006)
The Town of Oakville commissioned a Commercial Policy Review conducted by urbanMetrics in
2006. While the study is dated, its findings still have some relevance to the current retail context
in Oakville. The study was conducted in three phases, the first phase was an analysis of the
future warranted commercial space in Oakville, the second phase provided a review of the
Town’s existing commercial policies, and the final phase presented the findings and
recommendations. The work included public consultations, a telephone survey, a review of
existing and potential commercial inventory and a retail demand model which forecasted future
space requirements.
The study had a number of conclusions:
Oakville businesses rely heavily on expenditures from neighbouring municipalities, in
particular Mississauga, due to the proximity of major commercial nodes to the QEW or
Town borders.
Oakville’s residents have high outflow on apparel and home furnishings to surrounding
areas.
Future growth in Oakville after 2021, with the exception of infill and intensification, is
expected to occur north of Dundas Street.
Income and expenditure levels are well above the Provincial average.
By 2021, the population and expenditure growth will support an additional 3.8 to 4.2
million sf of commercial space in the Town.
The largest projected space is in three clusters; The RioCan Power Centre, Palermo
Village, and Uptown Core, and the majority of this space will be in power centres or part
of retail clusters around power centres. There will be additional arterial commercial
development and some limited accessory and convenience retail and service
commercial.
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Upon the completion of committed and proposed commercial projects, Oakville will have
six major commercial nodes:
o Downtown Oakville
o Oakville Place
o Palermo Village
o Burloak
o Winston Park
o The Uptown Core and Vicinity
There is a residual uncommitted space of between 400,000 to 900,000 sf, which should
be reserved for expansion of existing centres and nodes, accommodation of space in
employment and arterial areas, lower order centres in new growth areas, and
commercial components of mixed use projects
The urbanMetrics report provides information on retail/service sf per capita estimates. The
report noted an increasing trend from 1994 of 37.5 sf/capita to 38.1 sf/capita (2004). The
forecast included in the report reflects a 2021 metric of 43 sf/capita.
3.6.2 Policy Discussion Paper – Commercial Uses (2010)
This paper was prepared as part of the Livable Oakville work plan; it reviewed the findings from
the previous reports, addresses conformity with the Growth Plan, and makes recommended
changes to the existing Official Plan related to commercial permissions. The report summarizes
the analysis completed as part of the 2006 Retail and Service Commercial Policy Review.
At the time, the existing Official Plan had a traditional hierarchy of commercial centres and six
commercial land use designations, including an identification of trade area to be served. The
previous study noted the evolution of retail in Oakville, and the mismatch of some of the area
labels with the current function.
In 2010, the Town’s goal for commercial sites was for each community to develop areas of retail,
and the Town to continue with a flexible approach to commercial planning; restructuring current
designations to simplify the current hierarchy, yet maintain the centre-nodal approach.
New space should be focused on the expansion and intensification of existing nodes, in order to
use existing infrastructure. Re-designation of lands for new commercial sites is not
recommended, as North Oakville will provide new commercial areas.
The report recommended changes to the Official Plan, to strengthen and clarify the current
commercial hierarchy, including recognizing mixed-use policies.
Central Business District – pedestrian oriented design that allows for a mix of uses to
maintain the viability and vitality of the area.
Core Commercial – Formerly Regional Shopping Centre – located at major highway and
arterial intersections. Services the surrounding community and parts of the surrounding
region (sub-regional market role).
Community Commercial – located at the intersection of arterial roads to ensure
accessibility (car and transit) and visibility. Group retail and service commercial functions
on a single site. Serve the surrounding community and the local neighbourhood.
Neighbourhood Commercial – Provide a range of retail and service commercial uses to
adjacent neighbourhoods and providing local retail functions. Limits in lot size, with a
range of floor space between 186 to 2,300 sm.
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Figure 8 - Retail Study Areas
The report also recommended that the Town of Oakville monitor changes in commercial space.
An inventory was provided as part of the Retail and Service Commercial Policy Review Phase 1
(2006) and the 2010 discussion paper recommended it should be continued.
3.6.3 Livable Oakville MCR – Employment & Commercial Review (2016 - Ongoing)
As part of the current Municipal Comprehensive Review (MCR), the Town is completing an
Employment and Commercial Review. The Study is currently in Phase 3: Preliminary Findings &
Recommendations”. This town-wide review is intended to assess the Town’s ability to
accommodate long-term employment and commercial needs.
The Employment and Commercial Review: Commercial Report, by Dillon Consulting1 was
published in July 2016. This report addresses the Town’s evolving commercial areas, including
changing consumer demands, new greenfields and established areas such as Downtown
Oakville. In order to ensure that the Town’s commercial areas remain competitive, economic
trends and consumer demand patterns were addressed within the current policy planning
framework.
The report included field inspections, a detailed commercial market demand analysis, and
consumer research. The report includes:
A review and assessment of retail trends in Ontario;
Study Area Delineation (three areas);
Inventory of Existing Commercial/Retail and Service Space;
Consumer Research;
Population and Expenditure Forecast;
Retail Space Market Demand Analysis;
Service Space Opportunities Analysis; and
Estimate of Commercial/Retail Land Needs.
3.6.4 Current Town of Oakville Commercial Supply Assessment
The Commercial Report has delineated the Town of Oakville into three geographic Retail Study
Areas. The Glen Abbey site is in the Northwest Zone, but is in close proximity to the other areas.
1 In Collaboration with: Watson& Associates Economists Ltd., Tate Economic Research Inc. and SGL Planning and Design Inc.
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The report included an inventory of retail space in Oakville, which was undertaken in 2014. It
determined that there was approximately 8,900,000 sf of retail, service and vacant space in the
Town of Oakville.
The results of the inventory demonstrate that the current commercial/retail space is unevenly
distributed throughout the town, with South Oakville, which has the three Main Street Growth
Areas, Downtown, Kerr Village and Bronte Village having over one-half of the total supply based
on Gross Floor Area (GFA).
On a per capita basis, Northwest Oakville, where the subject site is located, has the lowest
supply, as well as having the lowest total GFA. Overall, Oakville has 48 sm per capita of
commercial (retail/service) space.
3.6.5 Town of Oakville Forecasted Future Demand/Supply2
The Commercial Report summarizes the forecast demand for additional retail and service space
for the Town of Oakville. This forecast is detailed by major category, and is completed for 2021,
2031 and 2041. Overall the forecast is for 3 million square feet of warranted new space by
2 Note: the population projections used to determine this forecast do not align with the current DCBS
Oakville Existing Retail Structure (2014)
Type Area (sf)*
Total FOR space (1) 1,000,000
Total NFOR space (2) 3,800,000
Other Retail and Service Oriented Uses 3,800,000
Vacant 400,000
Total Retail, service and vacant space 9,000,000
Source: Employment and Commercial Review: Commercial Report. Dillon Consulting (July 2016)
(1) FOR is comprised of the following categories: Supermarkets & Other Grocery Stores; Convenience Stores; and Specialty
Food Stores
(2) NFOR is comprised of the following categories: Department Stores; General Merchandise; Clothing & Accessories;
Future, Home Furnishings & Electronics; Pharmacies & Personal Care; Building & Outdoor Home Supplies; Miscellaneous
Retailers and Automotive Parts, Accessories & Tire stores
Oakville Existing Retail by Area and SF per Capita
Area Space (sf)* SF per Capita
South Oakville 4,600,000 70.8
Northwest Oakville 1,200,000 20.8
Northeast Oakville 3,000,000 48.4
Total Oakville 47.8
* Rounded
Source: Employment and Commercial Review: Commercial Report. Dillon Consulting (July 2016) p. 50
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2031, and an additional 600,000 from 2031 to 2041. This future demand includes a 5% vacancy
contingency across the entire supply.
Commercial Demand Analysis Summary
Inventory Base
Retail Space by Major Category 2014 2021 2031 2041
Department Store 536,900 86,000 216,000 260,000
Building & Outdoor Home Supply 598,900 72,000 164,000 193,000
Canadian Tire 248,100 43,000 90,000 109,000
Warehouse Membership Club (e.g. Costco) n/a 140,000 140,000 140,000
Other General Merchandise 64,000 14,000 37,000 44,000
Pharmacies & Personal Care 288,700 49,000 122,000 153,000
Other Non-Food Related Retail 2,039,300 232,000 511,000 603,000
Sub-Total Non-Food Retail 3,775,900 636,000 1,280,000 1,502,000
Supermarket 797,100 121,000 258,000 282,000
Other Food 203,300 29,000 67,000 75,000
Sub-Total Food Retail 1,000,400 150,000 325,000 357,000
Other Retail & Service 3,758,700 460,000 1,104,000 1,420,000
Vacancy Space Contingency (5%) 318,000 136,000 213,000 243,000
Total Existing Space 8,913,900
Warranted New Space 1,382,000 2,922,000 3,522,000
Plus Existing Space 8,913,900 8,913,900 8,913,900
Total Existing and Warranted New Space 10,295,900 11,835,900 12,435,900
Source: Employment and Commercial Review: Commercial Report. Dillon Consulting (July 2016) - TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. p. 73
Forecast Year
Breakdown of Forecasted Demand by Type to 2031
FOR 325,000
NFOR 1,300,000
Other Retail and Service 1,100,000
Vacancy Contingency 213,000
Total 2,938,000
Source: Employment and Commercial Review:
Commercial Report. Dillon Consulting (July 2016) -
TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. p. 73-74
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Figure 9 - Areas with Commercial Permissions
According to the Commercial Report, the Town has approximately 2.7 million square feet of
vacant commercial designated lands, including vacant lands in North Oakville. The assessment
of potential commercial space indicates that the majority of the space is located in the Trafalgar
Urban Core, with additional opportunities in South Oakville, the Dundas and Neyagawa Urban
Core and Palermo Village However, the report acknowledges that some of the vacant
commercial lands, especially those south of Dundas have characteristics that may “limit or
reduce the attractiveness of these sites for commercial development.”
Total Town-Wide Vacant Commercial Designated Space Available
Area Space (sf) Description
Trafalgar Urban Core Area 1,001,016 retail and service
Dundas Urban Core Area 344,436 retail
226,036 service
-150,691 built
Neyagawa Urban Core Area 333,672 retail
226,036 service
Palermo Village North Urban Core Area 75,345 retail
Potential on Vacant Land in South Oakville 645,817 retail
Total 2,701,666
Source: Employment and Commercial Review: Commercial Report. Dillon Consulting (July 2016) p. 80
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Reconciling the projected supply and demand results in a shortfall of 820,000 sf in commercial
space. Using a 30% coverage ratio, this would result in a shortfall of 25 hectares of lands for
commercial uses.3
However, the report indicates that there a number of limitations in their analysis:
The 2041 forecast which is the basis of the demand assessment is not approved;
This does not include retail/service/commercial infill and intensification opportunities;
and
They assume static trends in the retail sector.
3 Dillon Consulting. Town of Oakville Employment and Commercial Review: Executive Summary. March 2016. p. v
Oakville Supply & Demand Assessment
Area (sf)
Total Supply 2,701,666
Total Demand 2041 3,522,000
Shortfall -820,334
Source: Employment and Commercial Review: Commercial
Report. Dillon Consulting (July 2016) p. 89
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4 Forecasted Population and Commercial Space
4.1 Forecasted Population Growth – Town of Oakville
According to the Town of Oakville’s Development Charges Background Study (DCBS) (2013),
Oakville is anticipated to grow by nearly 82,000 residents between 2012 and buildout (post-
2031). The majority of this growth is forecast to be in North Oakville.
4.2 Forecasted Commercial Growth – Town of Oakville
The Town of Oakville’s DCBS anticipates that there will be an additional 8.5 million sf (790,000
SM) of new commercial space required in Oakville by build-out. Of this, 4.7 million sf, over half,
will be located in South Oakville, which includes the Glen Abbey Community.
Again, with limited opportunities and vacant commercial lands identified in the supply, the rest
will have to be accommodated through intensification, redevelopment, and infill development.
Forecasted Population Growth by Location
DEVELOPMENT
LOCATIONTIMING
NET
POPULATION
INCREASE
2012 - 2022 29,876
2012 - 2031 41,808
2012 - Buildout 52,828
2012 - 2022 8,107
2012 - 2031 19,825
2012 - Buildout 28,954
2012 - 2022 37,984
2012 - 2031 61,634
2012 - Buildout 81,782
1. North Oakville includes area north of Dundas St.
2. South Oakville includes the communities of Bronte,
College Park, Eastlake, Glen Abbey, Iroquios Ridge North,
Midtown Core, Old Oakville, Palermo Village Centre,
Palermo West, River Oaks, Uptown Core, and Westoak
Trails.
North Oakville¹
South Oakville²
Town of Oakville
Source: Halton Region Best Planning Estimates, June 2011. Buildout
forecast derived by Watson & Asssociates Economists Ltd.
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5 Glen Abbey Golf Club Redevelopment Retail/Service Space Requirements
As reviewed in Section 2.1, the retail/service and office component of the proposed
redevelopment of the Glen Abbey Golf Club is intended to predominantly service the local new
residential population. The format of the buildings, ground floor and second floor in a mixed use
building, will appeal to the local population, therefore it is anticipated the trade area for the
commercial uses on site will generally be limited to the proposed redevelopment boundaries.
As the retail will be local, or “doorstep” in nature, a square foot per capita analysis was utilized in
order to understand if there is sufficient commercial space based on the conceptual plan. As
noted earlier in the review of the 2006 urbanMetrics report, and consistent with other
municipalities, a retail/service space per capita standard in the 35 to 40 sf/capita range is
appropriate. Of this total, between 15 to 20 sf/capita tends to be convenience/service related.
The current Commercial assessment indicates that more recently the Town of Oakville is
reaching 48 sf/capita overall.
Calculations using the ground floor retail space suggest that the development as currently
proposed is just under 10 sf per capita, demonstrating that there will be a local market for the
proposed retail space.
In addition, the existing 50,000 sf RayDor Estate, which is currently fully leased, is expected to
continue in this office use, and the proposed second floor service space will provide additional
demand for convenience retail. It is estimated that there would be 340 jobs produced by the
non-residential development, and these employees would also use the retail and services
provided in the mixed use buildings.
Potential Glen Abbey Redevelopment Employment Yields
NON-RESIDENTIAL
EMPLOYMENT
TOTAL SPACE
(SF)
SF PER
EMPLOYEE
TOTAL
EMPLOYMENT
Commercial 62,871 500 126
Office (including RayDor) 108,438 500 343
Total 171,309 343
Source: Current Development Concept and Town of Oakville DCBS
Glen Abbey Population Yields
Development Concept Total Units PPU (1) Population Commercial sf sf per capita
Single Detached 141 3.48 491
Townhouse 109 2.55 278
Stacked Townhouse 190 2.55 485
Apartments 2,782 1.83 5,091
Total 3,222 6,345 62,871 9.9
(1) Adjusted 20-year average in accordance to Schedule 7 found in the Town of Oakville's 2013 DCBS
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5.1 Commercial Inventory in the Immediate Area
Figure 10 - Immediate Commercial Inventory
Currently in the immediate area (2 km radius) of the Glen Abbey Golf Club there is 125,000 sf of
Neighbourhood Commercial space, with limited vacancy. These are generally in the format of
10,000 to 20,000 sf single storey plazas with surface parking lots. The tenants are primarily
convenience retail and professional services intended to serve the immediate residential areas.
Most of the units are generally between 2,000 and 4,000 sf.
These Neighbourhood Commercial uses are generally located in residential areas, as their
offerings appeal to a smaller area, and do not require extensive travel.
Figure 11 - Examples of Neighbourhood Commercial in Study Area
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The area is also serviced by a number of Core Commercial Uses, which are clustered at the
intersection of Dorval Drive and the QEW. These include Dorval Crossing (East and West)
which offer nearly 485,000 sf of commercial space. The majority of the tenants are major
national retail chains, and individual units range from 5,000 sf to 30,000 sf. These Core
Commercial plazas service a larger trade area and offer supermarkets, LCBO stores, large scale
gyms, fast food with drive thrus and destination retail.
Figure 12 - Examples of Core Commercial in the Study Area
For a full list of commercial GFA in surrounding area see Appendix B.
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6 Recent Trends in Retail
There are a number of recent trends in retail which are important in informing a discussion on
the retail market. This section provides a very high level review of some of the trends which will
impact local and regional retail. It is important to note that the majority of these trends will have
limited impact on the local-servicing retail and service businesses envisioned for the proposed
redevelopment of the Glen Abbey Golf Club.
Much discussion about retail trends has been happening regarding the rise of online shopping
and the potential impact of e-commerce on bricks and mortar retail. In fact, less than 10% of
shopping is done online.4 The majority of online spending falls in the categories of Electronics
and Entertainment.5 Although online shopping is expected to continue to grow in a number of
segments, issues around logistics, delivery challenges, also known as the “last mile”, customer
preferences and experienced based retail, means bricks and mortar stores will continue to be
needed to supply new residential populations.
Omnichannel is the multichannel approach to retail sales which attempts to provide a customer
with a seamless shopping experience no matter the venue (computer, mobile device or bricks
and mortar store). Largely driven by technology, consumers are given a number of ways to view,
review and purchase products. Omnichannel has impacted bricks and mortar stores, as
“showcasing”, or stores which offer a wide range of products on display with limited in-store
stock, have changed the types of space some retailers require. Purchases are done typically in
store or online, and products can be shipped to the store or directly to the customer.
Despite the failure of Target’s expansion into Canada, a number of American and International
chains continue to enter into the Canadian market, driving demand for spaces in malls, power
centres and along urban main streets. Some of these retailers will seek new space, and others,
such as Nordstrom’s move into the former Sears space in the CF Toronto Eaton Centre, will
backfill large scale vacancies.
Many of the new American retailers who are entering the market are considered luxury retailers.
Luxury brands focus on the brand experience and bricks and mortar space is very important to
these groups, as the majority of their sales are in person. The experience is an important part of
the purchase. These brands appeal not only to higher income customers, but also “aspirational
shoppers” who cannot afford to consistently shop at luxury stores, but will purchase luxury items
often through outlets or discount web sales.
Intensification and population growth in urban centres has driven retailers to look at urban
formats in order to service new residential populations. These new formats have been
challenging to some established retailers as the spaces are smaller and there are often
difficulties around shipping capacities and zoning. Grocery chains in particular have been driven
to examine new urban format stores as new residential population growth is increasingly seen in
the dense urban environment. Large scale retailers such as Walmart and Ikea have been
experimenting with “urban format” stores, but not without challenges.
Finally, there is a trend towards the renewal or redevelopment of older, uncompetitive
community-scale shopping centres. The high value of land in urban centres has seen the
redevelopment of some urban malls to higher density residential development with smaller retail
components. Smaller enclosed malls have also faced competition from power centres and big
box developments. Existing malls, with strong locations and trade areas, have chosen to
increase their GFA and modernize through redevelopment, retrofitting and the construction of
standalone retail pads in their existing surface parking lots in order to stay relevant.
4 7.4% in the US. JLL Report - Predicting the Future of Retail 2016 5 J.C. Williams Group – E-Commerce Path to Purchase Survey Results (2015)
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Appendix A: Terms of Reference
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Appendix B: Proximate Retail Inventory
Commercial Inventory within 2 kilometres of Glen Abbey Site
Name Address Radius (Max) Type Building Size (sf)* Tenants Vacancy Comments
Monastery Plaza 1133 Monastery Drive 2 km Neighbourhood 23,035
Monastery Bakery, Pizza Nova, Convenience Store, Dental
Office, Dry Cleaners Former Blockbluster
Nottinghill Place 1131 Nottinghill Gate 2 km Neighbourhood 26,156
Abbey Medical, Total Health Pharmacy, Patisserie, Ginos Pizza,
Oxford Learning n/a
1/3 of the building has second
floor office (not Inc. in GFA)
Fourth and West Oak Trails 2275 West Oaks Trail 2 km Neighbourhood 17,760
Hair Saloon, Animal Hospital, Preschool, Dance School,
Convenience Store, Doctor's office, Pilates Studio n/a
River Oaks Convenience 201 River Oaks Blvd W 2 km Neighbourhood 7,319
Hair Dresser, Mini Mart, Health Food Store, Pizza, Clothing
Alterations n/a
River Oaks 2163 Sixth Line 2 km Neighbourhood 20,021
Pharmacy and Medical Clinic, Edward Jones, Dry Cleaning,
Lawyer, Pizza, M&Ms Meats, Karate Studio n/a
Sixth and Elm 1500 Sixth Line 2 km Neighbourhood 18,944
Sixth Line Pub; Oakville Parent-Child Centre; Vito's Pizza and
Wings; n/a
River Glen Plaza 575 River Glen 2 km Neighbourhood 12,056
CML Health, Edward Jones, Dentist, Hair Salon, Orthodontist,
Chiropractor, Sushi, Dry Cleaners n/a
Oakville Gardens 1311 Sixth Line 2 km Neighbourhood 1,399 Stand Alone Variety Store n/a
126,691
Dorvall Crossing East 200 - 300 North Service Rd 2 km Core Commercial 206,303
38 stores and services; Major Tenants - Winners, Bed Bath &
Beyond; Michaels; National Sports, McDonalds Yes, one unit
Dorvall Crossing West 200 - 300 North Service Rd 2 km Core Commercial 284,447
Metro; Toys R Us; Staples, Chapters/Indigo; Pro Hockey Life;
LCBO; Goodlife Fitness (28 stores and services) Yes, one unit
Abbey Centre 223 North Service Rd. W 2 km Core Commercial 17,222
Pad Retail - Gas Station; DQ; Starbucks: Il Fornello; Allstate;
Edward Jones; Quiznos; TD Bank; Supercuts n/a
Offices at Burch Oak 243 North Service Road 2 km Core Commercial 48,390 Various office, medical
5 units - total of 9,592 sf
as per CapREIT
Canadian Tire 1100 Kerr St 2 km Core Commercial 101,934 Stand Alone with Gas Bar n/a
658,296
RayDor Estate 1333 Dorval Drive 2 km Existing GA Commercial 50,000 Canadian Golf Hall of Fame n/a
Existing Glen Abbey Commercial Subtotal 50,000
834,987
* Total Building Area estimated based on Aerial measurements
Neighbourhood Subtotal
Core Commercial Subtotal
Total Commercial Area