NetWindElectricityGenerationfortheUnitedStatesandChina(1990–2008)

ByZachChehayebandCassieRoth

UCSBGeography183,Fall2009

FinalProjectPaper

Ourcurrentenergyeconomyisshiftingawayfromoil,coal,andnaturalgas,toone

poweredbyrenewablesourceslikewind,solar,andgeothermal.Avarietyofreasonsarethe

causeforthisshift:depletingglobaloilsupply,risingfossilfuelprices,climatechange,energy

security,andpublichealthconcerns.Toreduceworldwidegreenhousegasemissions,thefirst

priorityistoreplaceallcoal‐andoil‐firedelectricitygenerationwithrenewablesources(Brown,

2009).Mostlikely,theemergingenergyrevolutionwillrelyheavilyonelectricitytorun

transportationsystemsandtoheatandcoolbuildings.Thisprojectfocusesonthe

developmentofwindelectricitygenerationovertime,specificallyfortwomajorworldpowers:

theUnitedStatesandChinafromyears1990–2008.Windenergyisabundantandcheap,

enablingoneineverythreecountriestogenerateaportionofitselectricityfromwind(Earth

PolicyInstitute,2008).AstudyatStanfordUniversityconcludedthatharnessingonefifthofthe

Earth’savailablewindenergywouldprovideseventimesasmuchelectricityastheworld

currentlyuses(Brown,2009).Thus,thepurposeofthisprojectistoshowtheprogressand

capacityofwindelectricitygenerationfortwoverydifferentcountries,andtohopefully

strengthenpublicinterestinrenewableenergy.Thechangeinnetwindelectricitygeneration

fortheU.S.andChinaisportrayedwithanimatedtime‐seriesmaps,inaflashfile,toreveal

uniquedevelopmentpatternsthatwouldhaveotherwisebeendifficulttointerpretwith

individualstaticmaps.

Theuseofatime‐seriesmapanimationenablesaccuraterepresentationofthetrendsin

windelectricityproductionbetweentheU.S.andChina.Therawdataforbothcountrieswas

acquiredfromtheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationintheformofbillionkilowatt‐hours

(SeeTable1).BoththeU.S.andChinasignificantlyincreasednetwindelectricitygeneration

from1900‐2008,yetatverydifferentspeeds.Forexample,from1990‐2005China’sgeneration

merelygrewfrom0.002to1.927billionkWh.However,inyears2006,2007,and2008,

generationdoubledeachyearfrom3.304,6.430,and12.779billionkWh,respectively.The

UnitedStates,ontheotherhand,demonstratedamoregradualdevelopmentinwind

electricityproduction.From1990to2000,theU.S.windelectricitygenerationgrewfrom2.789

to5.593billionkWh.SimilartoChina,themostnoticeableincreasesoccurredinyears2006,

2007,and2008,wheregenerationincreasedto26.589,34.450,and52.026billionkWh,

respectively.TheanimationshowsthatthemagnitudeofwindelectricitygenerationintheU.S.

ismuchgreater;however,China’sgenerationisdoublingatarapidpaceandwillcontinueto

boomincomingyears,likelysurpassingtheUnitedStatesastheworld’slargestmarketfornew

windturbineinstallations.

Themajorobstacleinaccuratelypresentingthedatawasdetermininganappropriate

dataclassificationmethodandacorrespondingsymbologyscheme.First,graduatedcolorwas

utilizedtorepresentfiveclassesofdata,howeverthismethodprovedinadequatebecauseof

thedifficultyinviewingcolorchangeandidentifyingtheclass.Becauseofthewidespreaddata,

a“class‐less”scalewithgraduatedcolorwasconsideredtoeliminatetheproblemofnotbeing

abletoidentifytheindividualvaluewithineachclass.Unfortunately,thisapproachcouldnot

befoundwithinArcGIS.Thefinishedanimationusesagraduatedpictographicsymbolofawind

turbinetorepresentcontinuousdataacrossacountryandcorrespondstothefollowing6

classes:0–0.50,0.51‐3.00,3.01‐7.00,7.01‐11.00,11.01‐30.00,and30.01‐53.00billionkWh.

Thesizeofeachwindturbineisproportionaltotheclass:3,5,10,15,25,and50points.Yet

eventheclassedproportionalsymbolsweresometimesineffectiveindisplayingsmallchanges

inthedata.Forinstance,inyears1992,1995,and1998theU.S.slightlydeclinedinwind

generation,yetthisdownwardtrendisnotapparenttotheuserbecausethesymbolportraysa

rangeofvalues.Tosolvethisproblem,theindividualvaluewasdisplayedbeneatheachsymbol

eachyear.Thegraduatedsymbolsclarifytheverydifferentspeedsatwhichwindgeneration

growsandensuresgreaterunderstandingoftheissue.Additionalcomplicationsoftheproject

persistedwithArcGIS.Forexample,allofthemapscouldnotbeprocessedatonceinthe

softwarebecausethefilesizewastoolarge.Also,whencopyingthemapsfromArcGIStoFlash,

thewindturbineinthemapwouldnotpaste,forcingeachmaptobecroppedinAdobe

Photoshopandthenimported.

AlthoughtheFlashanimationprovidesminimalinteractivityanddataexploration

capabilitiesfortheuser,theeasy‐to‐usebuttons,balancedlayout,clearsymbology,and

smoothtransitionbetweenframes,enablestheusertoincreaseunderstandingofthetopicat

theirownpace.Theeffectivenessoftheanimationinaccuratelydepictingthedatadependson

1)thetypeofsymbology,2)interactivity,3)userexpertiseinthedomain,and4)user

experiencewithanimation(Slocum).AtanytimeduringtheFlashanimationtheuserhasthe

abilitytostop,play,rewind,ornavigatetoaparticularyear.Theframesaresequenced

chronologicallyandlabeledwitheachyear,followedbyadescriptionandanalysisofthedata

patterns.Datapriorto1990wasleftoutoftheanimationbecauseminimalwindenergywas

beingharnessedatthattime.Neartheendoftheanimation,themagnitudeofchangerapidly

increaseswhiledurationiskeptconstant,andisclearlyshownwiththeincreaseinsizeofthe

windturbinesymbols.Thefrequencyofdatachangeisminimalatthebeginning,andgrowsin

thefinalyears.BecausetheU.S.andChinaarecroppedoutoftheworldmapandplacedside‐

by‐side,neighboringcountriesandoceansarelabeledsotheusercanproperlyorientthemself.

Fixedscaleandfixedextentwereusedtoensurethateverymaponeveryframewasidentical.

Thepurposeoftheanimationistoincreaseawarenessofthefuturegrowthofrenewable

energy,thusvisualandanimationvariablesaregearedtowardthelayperson.Littleknowledge

ofgeovisualization,animation,orwindenergyisnecessaryininterpretingthedata;however,it

isimportantthattheuserisawareofissuesrelatedtomapprojection,dataclassification,scale,

andcognitiveprocessing.

Ifgivenmoretimeontheproject,anunclassedchoroplethmap(withacontinuous

colorslideandmoreaccurateshapefile)wouldhavebeenutilizedtoallowtheusertobetter

comparetheattributes.Additionaldatacouldhavebeenusedtocompareacountry’swind

electricitygenerationtoitstotalelectricityconsumption.Itwouldalsohavebeeninterestingto

mapworldwidedataforwindproductiontobetterunderstandwhichcountriesaremost

committedtorenewableenergyorhavethehighestcapacityforfutureproduction.For

example,Denmarkistheleaderwith21%ofthenation’selectricitycomingfromwind,followed

byGermanywith8%(Brown,2009).Also,futuremappingofthetopiccouldhighlightspecific

geographicareaswithhighwindcapacity.IntheUnitedStates,threestates—NorthDakota,

Kansas,andTexas—haveenoughharnessablewindenergytoruntheentireeconomy(Brown,

2009).Otherrenewablesourceslikesolar,geothermal,hydropower,andbiofuelscouldbe

shownwithmultivariatesymbolstoportraywhichcountriesareabetterfitforeachsource.

Thegroupprojectshowedfirst‐handthemanycomplicationsassociatedwithportraying

adatasetinamannerthatnotonlyachievestheobjective,butalsoclearlycommunicatesto

theaudiencethephenomenonbeingportrayed.Dataclassification,symbology,andinteractive

capabilitiesdeterminedbythecreatorplayamajorroleinhowtheuserperceivesinformation.

Numeroustimesthecomputersoftwarewouldnotcooperatewithourintentions,oftenmaking

theprojectfrustratingandincrediblytimeconsuming.Despitethelargeamountofeffortit

tooktoretrieve,manage,classify,andvisualizethedata,itwasrewardingbeingabletochoose

yourowntopicandcreativelypresentthedatainawaythatfacilitatesclearunderstandingand

interest.

TABLE1:NetWindElectricityGeneration(BillionKilowatt‐hours)

Year United

StatesChina

1990 2.789 0.0021991 2.951 0.0091992 2.888 0.0131993 3.006 0.0211994 3.447 0.0381995 3.164 0.0611996 3.234 0.0931997 3.288 0.1961998 3.026 0.3521999 4.488 0.4692000 5.593 0.5842001 6.737 0.7122002 10.354 0.8292003 11.187 0.9872004 14.144 1.2652005 17.811 1.9272006 26.589 3.3042007 34.450 6.4302008 52.026 12.779

Source:EnergyInformationAdministration,OfficialEnergyStatisticsfromtheU.S.Government

REFERENCESBrown,LesterR.PlanB4.0:MobilizingtoSaveCivilization.EarthPolicyInstitute.2009.EarthPolicyInstitute.GlobalWindPowerCapacity.4March2008.http://www.earth‐policy.org/index.php?/indicators/C49/EnergyInformationAdministration.OfficialEnergyStatisticsfromtheU.S.Government.http://eia.doe.gov/Slocum,TerryA.etal.ThematicCartographyandGeographicVisualization,3rdEdition.