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Gilani’s Gallopedia©

Gallopedia From Gilani Research Foundation January 2017, Issue # 466*

Compiled on a weekly basis since January 2007

Gilani’s Gallopedia is a weekly Digest of Opinions in a globalized world - one window on global opinion polling compiled by Gilani Research Foundation

Topic of the week: (Click for details)

Who are we? Gilani’s Gallopedia is a weekly digest of opinions in a globalized world. It provides a one window access to Global Opinion Polls on a weekly basis. It is produced by a team of researchers led by Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani, and is a not for profit public service. It is co-edited by Mohammad Zubair and Sara Salam. Our name reflects the rapid pace at which global polls are brought to the community of pollsters and other interested readers. Gilani’s Gallopedia is not related to any polling agency and makes its selection from any publically available poll based on its relevance to our reader’s interests. Over the years it has reported polls conducted by over 350 agencies and institutions.

Contact Details: Sara Salam Assistant Manager Gilani Research Foundation Email: [email protected]

I N S I D E T H I S I S S U E

T H I S W E E K ’ S R E P O R T C O N S I S T S O F 1 6

N A T I O N A L & M U L T I C O U N T R Y S U R V E Y S . 8

P O L L I N G O R G A N I Z A T I O N S H A V E B E E N

R E P R E S E N T E D .

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Asia zone

this week- 02 national polls

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Euro Americas zone

this week- 13 national polls 01multi-country study

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TOPIC OF THE WEEK: People across the West think we are close to a new

world war

Countries are represented in blue; Polling organizations are represented in

pink. For reference to source of each poll clicks to detail are provided in the text

http://www.gilanifoundation.com/homepage/globalopinion/466.htm#466-43-17

mailto:[email protected]





Weekly digest of opinions in a globalized world (compiled since January 2007)

January 2017 - Issue 466

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Asia Zone MIDDLE EAST& NORTH AFRICA; WEST ASIA; SOUTH ASIA; NORTH ASIA;

EAST ASIA

SOUTHEAST ASIA

466-1 Indonesian Consumer Confidence falls in November – now 148.9 (down 1.1pts);

lowest since February 2016 (Click for details)

(Indonesia)Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence for November fell to 148.9

(down 1.1pts). However, despite the small fall, Consumer Confidence is still 4.7pts higher

than it was a year ago in November 2015 (144.2) and is still a large 15.8pts above the long-

run average (2005-2016) of 133.1. (Roy Morgan)

December 31, 2017 3.2 Economy » Consumer Confidence/Protection

466-2 Net satisfaction ratings of the Senate at Good +48, House of Representatives at Good +36 (Click for

details) (Philippines)The Fourth Quarter 2016 Social Weather Survey, done on December 3-6, 2016, found 63%

satisfied and 15% dissatisfied with the performance of the Senate, 52% satisfied and 17% dissatisfied with the

House of Representatives, 50% satisfied and 17% dissatisfied with the Cabinet as a whole, and 56% satisfied

and 18% dissatisfied with the Supreme Court of the Philippines. (SWS)

January 05, 2017 1.2 Domestic Politics » Performance Ratings

Euro Americas Zone EAST EUROPE, WEST EUROPE; NORTH AMERICA; LATIN AMERICA

& AUSTRALASIA

WEST EUROPE

466-3 Britons’ predictions for 2017: Brexit, economic concerns, and a Royal engagement? (Click for details)

(UK)A clear majority (79%) of Britons think that the government will begin the process for leaving the

European Union in 2017, with the same proportion thinking it likely that another European country will

decide to hold a vote on leaving the European Union, according to Ipsos MORI’s Annual Predictions Poll.

(Ipsos Mori)

January 01, 2017 1.3 Domestic Politics » Governance 2.8 Foreign Affairs & Security » International / Regional Organizations

466-4 Voting Intention: Conservatives 39%, Labour 26% (Click for details)

(UK)The first YouGov/Times voting intention figures for 2017 see the Conservatives

on 39%, the same level as our last survey on 18-19 December, and Labour on 26%

(from 24%), giving the Tories a 13 point lead. (YouGov)

January 03, 2017










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1.1 Domestic Politics » Elections 1.4 Domestic Politics » Political Parties

466-5 People across the West think we are close to a new world war (Click for details)

New YouGov research across eight Western nations finds people anticipating the outbreak of conflict and

further major terror attacks. (YouGov)

January o5, 2017 2.4 Foreign Affairs & Security » Terrorism 2.5 Foreign Affairs & Security » Regional Conflicts/ Issues

NOTH AMERICA

466-6 Independent Political ID in US Lowest in Six Years (Click for details)

(USA)An average of 39% of Americans self-identified as political independents in 2016, down from 42% in

2015 and reaching its lowest point in six years. Meanwhile, identification with both major parties edged up,

with Democrats continuing to maintain a slight advantage over Republicans, 31% to 28%. (Gallup USA)

January, 2017 1.1 Domestic Politics » Elections 1.4 Domestic Politics » Political Parties

466-7 Rumors of the Demise of Books Greatly Exaggerated (Click for details)

(USA)Despite the abundance of digital diversions vying for their time and attention, most

Americans are still reading books. In fact, they are consuming books at nearly the same rate

that they were when Gallup last asked this question in 2002 -- before smartphones, Facebook

or Twitter became ubiquitous. More than one in three (35%) appear to be heavy readers,

reading 11 or more books in the past year, while close to half (48%) read between one and 10

and just 16% read none. (Gallup USA)

JANUARY 06, 2017 4.7 Society » Morality, Values & Customs / Lifestyle

466-8 Americans Still See Big Government as Top Threat (Click for details)

(USA)As businessman Donald Trump prepares to become the nation's 45th president,

Americans continue to express more concern about the threat big government poses to the U.S.

than big business or big labor. Two in three Americans (67%) identify big government as the

country's biggest threat. That is below the record high of 72% in 2013 but still on the higher

end of the range since the mid-1960s. (Gallup USA)

January 05, 2017 1.3 Domestic Politics » Governance

466-9 US Economic Confidence Reaches Record High in December (Click for details)

(USA)Americans ended 2016 with higher confidence in the U.S. economy than they have expressed at any

other point since 2008. Gallup's Economic Confidence Index averaged +9 in December, up eight points from

November. (Gallup USA)

January 03, 2017 3.2 Economy » Consumer Confidence/Protection









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466-10 US Conservatives Outnumber Liberals by Narrowing Margin (Click for details)

(USA)Many more Americans have considered themselves politically conservative than liberal since the early

1990s. That remained the case in 2016, when an average of 36% of U.S. adults throughout the year identified

themselves as conservative and 25% as liberal. Yet that 11-percentage-point margin is half of what it was at

its peak in 1996 and is down from 14 points only two years ago. (Gallup USA)

January 03, 2017 1.1 Domestic Politics » Elections 1.4 Domestic Politics » Political Parties

466-11 Many in US Skeptical Trump Can Handle Presidential Duties (Click for details)

(USA)As Donald Trump prepares to take the presidential oath on Jan. 20, less than half of

Americans are confident in his ability to handle an international crisis (46%), to use

military force wisely (47%) or to prevent major scandals in his administration (44%). At

least seven in 10 Americans were confident in Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill

Clinton in these areas before they took office. (Gallup USA)

January 02, 2017 1.2 Domestic Politics » Performance Ratings

466-12 Faith on the Hill (Click for details)

(USA)The share of U.S. adults who describe themselves as Christians has been declining for decades, but the

U.S. Congress is about as Christian today as it was in the early 1960s, according to a new analysis by Pew

Research Center.1 Indeed, among members of the new, 115th Congress, 91% describe themselves as

Christians. This is nearly the same percentage as in the 87th Congress (1961 to 1962, the earliest years for

which comparable data are available), when 95% of members were Christian. (Pew Research Center)

January 03, 2017 4.1 Society » Religion

466-13 Most Americans Oppose Withdrawing From Iran Deal (Click for details)

(USA)With the Donald J. Trump administration just a couple of weeks away from taking over the nation’s

foreign policy, a new survey from the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation (PPC) finds

that nearly two thirds of Americans oppose withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and seeking to negotiate a

better deal, as has been proposed by the president-elect. (PIPA)

January 06, 2017 2.12 Foreign Affairs and Security >> Bi/Tri-lateral Relations

466-14 Palestine and Israel in the shadow of the election: What do Americans want Obama and Trump to

do? (Click for details)

(USA)While the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is hardly a top American priority now, the

transition to a new U.S. administration has revived the conversation about what the

United States could or should do to break the current stalemate. President-elect Donald

Trump himself touched on the issue in his recent conversation with the New York

Times, and the Obama administration has been considering acting, possibly at the

United Nations, to keep the prospects of a two-state solution alive. In some ways, the










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election of Donald Trump has made it easier for Obama to act now if he chooses—he would have likely felt

the need to show more deference to a President Clinton. (PIPA)

January 05, 2017 1.1 Domestic Politics » Elections

466-15 As 2016 reaches its end, most Canadians say ‘good riddance’ (Click for details)

(Canada)– ―Worst year ever‖: that’s one pop culture narrative about 2016. From the humanitarian crises

unfolding in Syria to terror attacks, world-re-ordering election outcomes and a parade of celebrity deaths – for

many, this year seemed marked by more sadness and more uncertainty than previous ones. Most think the year

was a bad one for Canada, the U.S., and the world at large. (Angus Reid)

December 28, 2016 3.1 Economy » Perceptions on Performance/ Well-Being

AUSTRALASIA

466-16 Customers happy but home loans are still dragging satisfaction levels down (Click for details)

(Australia)Banking using an app on a mobile phone or tablet is now more popular than

using branches, with 38.8% of Australians using it in an average four-week period,

compared with only 28.2% for branches. Satisfaction is obviously a major driver of this

trend with 90.7% satisfaction with mobile banking among the big four, compared to 84.8%

satisfaction with branches. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source

survey of 50,000+ people pa. (Roy Morgan)

January 2017 3.11 Economy » Science & Technology 3.12 Economy » IT & Telecom

Topic of the week: People across the West think we are close to a new world war This page is devoted to opinions of countries whose polling activity is generally not known very widely or where a recent

topical issue requires special attention.

People across the West think we are close to a new world war January o5, 2017

New YouGov research across eight Western nations finds people anticipating the

outbreak of conflict and further major terror attacks

A century on from the world’s first major global conflict – a war that was thought at

the time to have ended all wars – the world still does not look like a particularly

peaceful place.







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With Russia and the West trying to stare one another down in Syria and Ukraine, an increasingly assertive

China in the Pacific and the impending inauguration of a bellicose new US president, new YouGov research

finds that many people across the West people are a new global conflict.

Asked to rank how close the world is to a major war, with 0 being ―complete peace‖ and 10 being ―teetering

on the brink of worldwide conflict‖, the survey of nearly 9,000 people across eight countries finds that many

more people believe that we are much closer to global war than global peace.

People from the major Western nations in the survey – Britain, France, Germany and the US – are the most

likely to think the world is closest to war. Between 61% and 64% of people in these countries gave a score of

6 or more. Just 15-19% of people in these nations gave a score of 0-4.

The views of those living in the Nordic nations are distinct from those living in major Western nations.

Despite their close proximity to an increasingly belligerent Russia, Nordic people have a far rosier perception

of the world’s peacefulness, with between 30% and 39% of people giving a score of 0-4. Nonetheless, they are

still outnumbered by those who think the planet is closer to war than peace, about 45-52% of people.




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Beware the bear

One of the most obvious major threats to world peace – especially in Europe – is Russia. In every country

surveyed large majorities of people believe Russia to be a major or significant military threat to the rest of

Europe. Between 59% and 71% of people consider Russia to be a big threat, with people from Britain and the

Nordic countries the most concerned.

By contrast, Westerners do perceive Russia to be far less threatening in the economic sphere. The country,

which is still facing economic sanctions from the US, EU and other countries for its military intervention in

Ukraine, is seen as an economic threat by between 25% and 42% of people, with Finns and the French the

most concerned.

Major nations are braced for new terror attacks this year

Of course, armed conflict is not the only major violent threat to people’s lives in the West – the spectre of

terrorism still looms large over Europe and America.




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Citizens of the major western nations in the survey – Britain, France, Germany and the US – are clearly

braced for a big terror attack in 2017. In France, which has suffered two major terrorist attacks in the last 14

months, as many as 81% of people think a major terror attack is likely in 2017 (including 35% who think one

is very likely).

Nearly seven in ten Britons (68%) expect a terror attack in 2017, as do 59% of Americans and 60% of

Germans (please note, the survey was conducted before the Berlin Christmas market attack on 19 December).

People in Nordic nations are much more evenly split on how likely a major terrorist attack is, except in

Finland where Finns are highly skeptical about the chances of an attack (63% think one is unlikely vs 26%

likely).

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/05/people-major-western-nations-think-world-close-maj/

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/05/people-major-western-nations-think-world-close-maj/




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Gilani’s Gallopedia (2007-2017) A Quantitative Analysis

A quantitative analysis of global polls monitored during the 8 year period January 2007 – January 2014

KEY STATISTICS

1- Number of Surveys (a selection on key political and social issues): ~ 6,805 polls

during the period 2007-2014

2- Subjects of Interest (we have made a list of 125 subjects, further grouped into 9 broad categories, namely:

Governance, Globalization (inclusive of global economic issues) Global Conflicts (conflict zones), Global

leaders (USA and Emerging powers), Global Environment, Family, Religion, and other miscellaneous

3- Number of countries covered by one or more surveys: ~ 178


4- Number polling organizations whose polls have been citied: ~ 358


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