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Gil 2012 Africa Mega Trends Africa Energy & Power by Cornelis van der Waal
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Transcript of Gil 2012 Africa Mega Trends Africa Energy & Power by Cornelis van der Waal
1
We Accelerate Growth
Energy and Power Africa
Cornelis van der Waal
Business Unit Leader - Africa
Sponsored by:
Africa – Did you know ?
$1 trillion Needed over the Next 20
Years to Meet Africa’s Power
Demand
60% The % of Africa’s
Population without
Electricity Access
Of Africa’s Electricity Demand is from the Mining Sector
30% 7 000MW Is needed
Every Year in Africa to Meet
Growth Demand
5.5% Average
Economic Growth
Across the Continent
Is the Additional
Cogeneration Planned for
Africa by 2016
250MW Average
Growth in Genset
Rental On the
Continent
9% 13% Africa Accounts for 13% of the
World's Population, but
Accounts for Only 5% of
Global Energy Consumption
13% Of the Global
Hydro Potential is in Africa (Less than 20% of this
Developed to Date)
Africa’s Share of Global RE Investment in 2011
> 1%
3
Energy and Power
So What will Shape this Market?
4
A number of countries have been identified as high potential growth areas
Medium Term Country Opportunity Outlook (Africa), 2012-2017
High Growth
Medium Growth
Low Growth
Somalia
South Africa
Mozambique
Egypt
Sudan
Morocco
Nigeria
Ghana
Angola
Zimbabwe
Algeria Libya
Chad Niger Mali Mauritania
Uganda
Ethiopia
Zambia
Tanzania
Kenya
Botswana
Cameroon
Gabon
Equatorial Guinea
Western Sahara
Senegal
Guinea
Sierra Leone
Cote D’Ivoire
Liberia
CAR
Gambia
Guinea Bissau
Benin Togo Burkina
Faso
Republic of Congo
Namibia
DRC
Current RE Mix in Africa (2011)
* Electricity development driven by mineral resources
5
Levels of Electrification in Selected African Countries
The Current Level of Electrification is a Good Indicator of Economic Expansion Realities in the Medium Term
High Electricity Access
Medium Electricity Access
Low Electricity Access
6
Energy Demand and Supply Analysis – Where are the Gaps?
Africa’s fast growing markets have significant deficits in their electricity supply, a gap which is necessary to fill to fuel its economic growth
MW
Energy Deficit in MW Electricity Demand Percentage Growth for 2011
% Growt
h
Note: South Africa's existing power infrastructure is in need of significant maintenance
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
7
Where are the Key Projects?
World’s 3rd largest
supercritical coal fired plant
650MW combined cycle gas plant
(CCGT)
7,200 MW of wind power generation capacity
1,800MW Gibe III is currently under
construction
428km transmission line project
2,000 MW Wind Power Plant and 2,000 MW Solar
Power Plan
22,000 MW of renewable energy (solar and wind) to
be developed between 2011 and 2030
Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP)
and Desertec (DII) are the
driving seat for the renewable energy growth
South Africa
Kenya
Ethiopia
Egypt
Algeria
Morocco
Nigeria
8
RE Planned Growth
Kenya, 250
Ethiopia, 14
Tanzania, 32
Uganda, 56
Rwanda, 7
South Africa, 10
Morroco, 300
Tunisia, 115
Egypt, 567
Algeria, 29
Installed Capacity 2011 Kenya, 1 852
Ethiopia, 857 Tanzania, 274
Uganda, 114
Rwanda, 104
South Africa, 6 000
Morroco, 4 000 Tunisia, 650
Egypt, 7 350
Algeria, 4 600
Planned Capacity by 2020
1,380 MW 25,800 MW
> > > Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass
9
Key
Suppliers
Distributed Power and Africa – The Next Best Thing?
New Equipment Sales (2009)
$900 Million
Installed Power Rental (2011)
70MW
Installed Power Rental (2012)
393MW
New Equipment Sales (2009)
$101.8 Million
Installed Power Rental (2011)
408MW
New Equipment Sales (2009)
$16 Million
New Equipment Sales (2011)
$164.3 Million
Installed Power Rental (2009)
100MW
New Equipment Sales (2009)
$13.9 Million
New Equipment Sales (2009)
$14.5 Million
10
South Africa in Focus
Renewable Energy:
17GW by 2030 Solar: PV and CSP a combined target of 9.4GW Wind: 8.4GW target with a key focus on localisation Other: 1000MW of small hydro, municipal waste to energy and biomass
Distribution Backlog (2012):
$4.3 Billion Poor infrastructure management the past 15 years has created a significant opportunity Key focus on transformers, switchgear, smart metring and cables
3,725 MW is up for allocation at present with more bidding rounds expected shortly
2030 - 9.6GW Added
Nuclear In excess of $50 billion expected
before 2025 Significant opportunity for
nuclear equipment suppliers Significant opportunity for local
manufacturers
Eskom 5 year $40 billion
Investment Budget - 13% Transmission
55% Generation 13% Distribution
8% Other New IPP’s Licenced in 2012:
31 RE Projects
South Africa – Focus
11
Conclusions