Tim Mulgan (Auckland/St. Andrews): Ethics for Possible Futures
GIA Singapore - Introduction (Mulgan)
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Transcript of GIA Singapore - Introduction (Mulgan)
Source: PISA 2009
0%
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6%
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12%
14%
16%
18%
Reading Maths Science
UK
Singapore
% of 15 year olds with cognitive skills at the
highest level
How we innovate is changing
Elberfelder Farbenfabriken
vorm. Friedrich Bayer & Co
Bell Labs, Holmdel, NJ
Elberfelder Farbenfabriken
vorm. Friedrich Bayer & Co
Open innovation
Social innovation
Innovation in
services
User innovation
Bell Labs, Holmdel, NJ
Health spend as % GDP (2005) versus adult mortality rate (2006)
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8
9
10
11
12
13
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16
40 60 80 100 120
Healt
h s
pen
d a
s %
GD
P
Adult mortality rate
Source: OECD Health Data 2010
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%
% g
row
th i
n s
hare
of
GD
P (
p.a
.)
% improvement in mortality rate (p.a.)
Change in health spend share of GDP
versus % improvement in adult mortality rate
• Evolution of civil society’s economic roles – eg 11m
jobs in Europe
• Growth of socially oriented commercial economy: US
Congressional Budget Office: projections forecast total
spending on health care will rise from 16% of GDP in
2007 to 25% in 2025, 37% in 2050 and 49% in 2082.
• Visible exemplars: Grameen, BRAC, Pratham,
Mondragon ...
Technologist III
“Work involves testing patient
samples for efficacy/exploratory
biomarkers and pharmacokinetic
measurements using established
protocols and written procedures.
You should have experience in
techniques such as ELISA,
multiplex assays, and enzymatic
assays, as well as experience in
handling human samples.”
What skills for what kinds of innovation?
A craft that combines:
• Understanding of science, social science, evidence,
experience …
• The subtle realities of taking ideas into effect and then
scale
• What works in terms of impact, results
• What works in terms of public acceptability, politics
• How to organise, finance, assess innovations
• ???
Social entrepreneurs
Policy makers
Design advocates
Service design companies
User groups/NGOs
Public sector managers
Consultancies
IT/egovernment
Professions
Politicians and parties
Web entrepreneurs. innovators
Mutuals, coops Social scientists
Community projects
CONTRIBUTORS TO THE FIELD
1. OBSERVE natural processes and
social phenomena (light, electricity,
care, exchange), REPLICATE and
AMPLIFY
2. BUILDING BLOCKS- the web, portals,
paraprofessionals, the universal
benefit/tax credit, personal account,
each forming a domain …
Applying the model to social and public
innovation
• Observation
• Replication/amplification leads to
building blocks
• Evolution
• Combination
• Redomaining
1 Prompts
2 Proposals
3 Prototypes
4 Sustaining
5 Scaling
6 Systemic change
THE INNOVATOR’S PERSPECTIVE
1 Prompts
2 Proposals
3 Prototypes
4 Sustaining
5 Scaling
6 Systemic change
1.Mutation
2.Selection
3.Replication
THE SYSTEM’S PERSPECTIVE
1. prompts and triggers diagnosis ethnography
political mandates
critical walking
failure demand
data and evidence
cost escalation
petitions, campaigns
complaints choirs
new technology
user feedback
reviewing extremes, positive deviance
surveys and sousveys needs mapping
new paradigms
visits
crisis
rights to time for ideas
Customer journey maps 1 Prompts
2 Proposals
3 Prototypes
4 Sustaining
5 Scaling
6 Systemic change
2. proposals and ideas inspiration Idea marketplaces
Hybridisation, recombination
Design tools
collaborative networks
User led design
A teams brainstorms
creative meeting methods
Competitions and prizes
Artists in residence Creativity methods
incubation
Living Labs
reflection
crowdsourcing
SI Camps
Skunkworks
Staged prizes TRIZ
1 Prompts
2 Proposals
3 Prototypes
4 Sustaining
5 Scaling
6 Systemic change
3. prototypes and tests trials beta testing
proof of concept
Randomised control trials
pathfinders
rapid prototyping
trailblazers
simulations
pilots
experimental zones test marketing
open testing
1 Prompts
2 Proposals
3 Prototypes
4 Sustaining
5 Scaling
6 Systemic change
FORMAL PILOTS
• RCTs and random assignment – eg Creative
Credits, J-PAL
• Experimental zones
• Living Labs
4. sustaining embedding
Professional development
policy commitment loans, equity, quasi-equity
Commissioner commitment
Crowd-funding
Public share issues
programme funding
Refining business models
formal validation
Ownership structures
1 Prompts
2 Proposals
3 Prototypes
4 Sustaining
5 Scaling
6 Systemic change
Implementing
involves
putting
resources
and
structures
around the
innovation
Money and business model
Know-how
People and governance
Reputation
and effectiveness
Physical Resources
INNOVATION
Business planning
Charities Shareholders agreements
Non-executive Directors
Independent evaluation and benchmarking
Advertising
Sales and business development
Banking and working capital
PR
Pricing
Purchasing
Leasing
xxxx
Money and business model
Know-how
People and governance
Reputation
and effectiveness
Physical Resources
INNOVATION
Developing strategy
Industrial and Provident
Society
Partnerships
Supply chain management
Distribution channels and systems
Management information
systems
Intellectual property
protection
Community Interest Company
Co-operatives
•Developing a business model •Securing initial funds – customers and investment
•Acquiring the premises and equipment to deliver the innovation •Accessing the raw materials the innovation requires
•Evaluating effectiveness •Building brand, profile,
reputation •Switching from previous
solutions
•Setup up governance •Recruit leadership and team
Building operational systems and processes to deliver for users
5. scaling and growth diffusion
Strategies for diffusion and adoption
licensing
Brands
franchises
investment for growth – loans, equity, quasi-equity
commissioning
federations
National policy directives
professional networks
growth through people takeover
policy and programme funding
consumer advocacy
1 Prompts
2 Proposals
3 Prototypes
4 Sustaining
5 Scaling
6 Systemic change
Money and business model
Know-how
People and governance
Reputation
and effectiveness
Physical Resources
INNOVATION
UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCALE
Is there a viable business model and evidence of demand / market?
Is there evidence of the effectiveness of
the innovation? Is that known, understood,
accepted by others?
Are the systems / processes capable of
operating at higher volume, or capable
of expansion?
What are the aspirations and
motivations of the key people behind
the innovation? How critical are they?
Are the resources necessary for expansion readily available, affordable, controllable?
6. systemic change new mentalities
regulation
recalibrated markets
changed scripts whole system demonstrators
technical diffusion through supply chains
fast colleges
finance for outcomes
changed power relationships
new metrics
law
coalitions for change
1 Prompts
2 Proposals
3 Prototypes
4 Sustaining
5 Scaling
6 Systemic change
46
HEALTH AND CARE
• Whole system demonstrators
• Social Networks for support
• Patient peer influence
Which tools could be useful to you as an
innovator? What’s good about what you see –
but where is scope for evolution, combination?
SOCIAL DESIGN TOOLS
^ inversion (peasants become bankers, patients become doctors)
∫ integration (personal advisers, one stop shops, portals, speeding flow)
x extension (extended schools, outreach)
∂ differentiation (segmenting services by groups, or personalisation)
+ addition (getting GPs to do a new test, libraries running speech therapy)
- subtraction (no frills, cutting targets, decluttering)
t translation (airport management into hospitals, business planning into families)
g grafting an element from one field into another, creating a new fusion (coaching into a secondary school)
∞ creative extremism – pushing ideas and methods to their furthest boundaries
r random inputs (eg dictionaries, Yellow Pages)