GHG emission reduction pathways - aga.org · • Gas technologies can enhance energy system...
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Phase 1: Gas Technology Pathway Identification
Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pathways
May 2018
enovationpartners.com
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Content
Executive Summary
Project Scope and Approach
Gas Technologies
End Use Pathways
Vignettes
Appendix
2
1. Gas Technology Pathway
Identification
• Identify and assess emerging natural gas end-use technologies that could contribute materially to GHG reductions
• Assemble candidate gas technologies into end-use pathways for meeting current gas end use needs at lower GHG levels
• Analyze customer benefits
• Analyze how penetration of new gas end-use technologies could change costs and emissions at the system and national levels
• Compare costs of GHG reductions with other pathways
• Understand cumulative GHG impact of implementing gas pathways today vs. waiting for electrification
3. Policy Implications and
Outreach(optional)
• Develop policy advocacy materials
• Analyze potential impacts at state level
Project scope3/5 – 5/2010 weeks TBD TBD
2. Comparative Pathway Performance
(optional)
3
25-40%GHG reduction potential on a customer basis by integration of these technologies and other efficiency practices
Emerging gas technologies can make substantial and cost-effective contributions to GHG reduction goals
>100Innovative gas technologies for Residential / Small Commercial identified in our global search
60-80%+GHG reduction sufficient to meet COP 21 goals with inclusion of future CHP technologies and Renewable Natural Gas
Policy goals for sustainable energy can be achieved at significantly lower consumer cost through integrating innovative gas solutions into long-term resource planning, while offering customers more choice and improved affordability, reliability and comfort
• Gas technologies can enhance energy system reliability (system-wide and as a local backup) and efficiency, while reducing the need for new electric generation and T&D infrastructure and preserving the future value of gas infrastructure. They deserve comparable policy support
• Electric technologies will also improve, and are supported by incentives, but their GHG impacts depend on the generation fuel mix. In some regions electrification will increase GHG emissions through the 2030s
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End-use pathways
Our objective was to identify innovative gas technologies and translate their impact into customer value and environmental benefits
Note: Some technologies have multiple end uses and can be used in the residential and commercial sectors. These technologies are represented in all applicable sections
Innovation area1 Condensing Technology
2 Hot water heating / boilers
3 Kitchen4 On-Site Generation5 Burners6 Heat Pumps
7 Changes to laundry processing
8 Solar Thermal / Heat Recovery
9 Improved Energy Management
10 Transportation11 Building Envelope12 Miscellaneous
1Technologies1.
Con
dens
ing
Tech
nolo
gyIntegrated contact condensing water heaterIn-situ flue burner - applying premix burners to storage GWHTransport Membrane Humidifier (TMH)High efficiency condensing condo packsResidential condensing water heaterCondensing wall furnaceRooftop units - heating and coolingCondensing economizer
2. B
oile
rs
Tankless water heaterSolar-assisted heatingThermal compression gas heat pumpCombined space and water heating systems
3. K
itche
n
Combination steam and heat ovenBoilerless steamerSmoke sensors in exhaust system to control ventilation
2 3Customer value
Affordability
Sustainability
Resilience
Comfort
4
12Innovation areas
>100Technologies
7End use-pathways
26Prioritized
technologies
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Natural Gas End-Uses
Global innovation is accelerating in traditional applications as well as emerging applications such as resilience and transportation. RNG will decarbonize gas more fundamentally.
Notes: Transportation technologies were not the main focus of the project; Renewable Natural Gas technologies were outside of the project scope
Space Heating & Cooling
Cooking
Laundry
Water Heating
72Cogeneration/ Resilience
Transportation
Renewable Natural Gas
Energy Management &
Building Efficiency
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Extensive global research, interviews, workshops and conference sessions highlighted over 100 significant emerging gas technologies
Focus of the studyOutside of the main focus of the study
Cooking
1• Gas oven and
cooktop
Transportation
5• Fuel Cell
Electric Vehicle• Home-refueling
appliances
Water Heating
17• Tankless water
heater• Gas heat-pump
water heater
Cogeneration/ Resilience
5• Micro CHP • Solid oxide fuel
cells
Building Energy Management
12• Envelope• IoT-based energy
mgmt.
Heating &Cooling
18• Condensing furnace• Heat pumps• Solar thermal/
Heat recoveryLaundry
3• Advanced gas
dryer• Ozone washing Cu
stom
er V
alue
, GH
G Im
pact
s
End Uses and Representative Technologies
Heating &Cooling
13• Heat pumps• Condensing
Condo Packs
Cooking
6• High production
fryer• Boilerless
steamer
Laundry
5• Ozone washing• Advanced gas
infra-red burner
Water Heating
3• Condensing
economizer• Grease Trap
heat exchange
Building Energy Management
10• Demand controls
for HW system
Cogeneration/ Resilience
5• Micro CHP • Solid oxide fuel
cells
Commercial
Transportation
9• Commercial CNGVs• Free-piston linear-
motor compressor
Tech
nolo
gy In
nova
tion
Area
s
Residential
Notes: Total number of technologies exceeds 100 due to applicability to both sectors and multiple end uses
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• IoT thermostats (i.e. Nest, Honeywell)
• Building envelope (insulation, windows, building materials)
• Demand controls for HW systems • Thermostatically controlled low flow
shower head
Innovative technologies were assessed, prioritized and aligned with relevant end use pathways
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Note: All technologies were independently evaluated and scored by several SMEs; evaluation criteria primarily considered GHG impact and time to market; aggregated scores were consistent among experts and robust against multiple weightings; * designates technology with multiple end-uses, but listed only once
• Tankless water heater -Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters
• Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable)
• Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology
• Combined Space and Water Heating Systems*
• Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen)• Commercial CNG vehicles
• Ozone and cold water washing
• High production fryers• Multistacked boilerless steamer for
high volume cooking• Combination steam and heat oven
• Low-cost residential gas absorption heat pump (GAHP) combination
• Condensing furnace• Transport Membrane Humidifier
(TMH)
• Solid oxide fuel cells*• Micro CHP – gas recip, sterling
engine*
High priority technologies by major end use
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Combining emerging end-use technologies in the residential sector creates multiple pathways for customers to reduce GHG emissions
Water heating,up to 55%
• Absorption heat pump
Laundry, 55%• Gas dryer• Ozone washing • Gas stove
• Gas oven
Space Cooling, up to 45%Space Heating, up to 40%• Gas heat pump
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Cooking, minimal change
Building Efficiency, 10-45%• IoT based thermostat• Building Envelope
Notes: GHG reduction potential is estimated based on efficiency improvements over stock average gas equipment efficiency and building envelope in 2016
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Combining emerging end-use technologies in the commercial sector creates multiple pathways for customers to reduce GHG emissions
Notes: GHG reduction potential is estimated based on efficiency improvements over stock average gas equipment efficiency and building envelope in 2016
Transportation, up to 20%• Commercial compressed natural
gas vehicles
Cooking, up to 40%• High efficiency
fryer
Energy Management & Building Efficiency, 10-45%• Building Envelope• IOT Thermostat
Water heating, up to 15%• Condensing storage
Electric Generation, Space Heating, up to 50%• CHP, Gas Recip
Engine
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Specific illustrative vignettes of customers achieving this level of reduction today through innovative gas technologies were developed, to help communicate the benefits:
Currently available efficient gas technologies can more affordably achieve targeted GHG reduction goals through 2030s
25-40%GHG reduction potential on a customer basis by implementing these technologies and other related efficiency practices
Notes:* Examples follow
• Zero Net Energy (ZNE) home in Chicago, IL*• Low income family renting in Hartford, CT*• Home in Queens, NY*• Fixed income retiree in The Villages, FL• Residential developer/builder in MA
• Restaurant owner in OH• Public bus system in CA• Family in harsh winter climate of St Louis, MO*• Single family home in MI
Gas infrastructure is already in place. No need to wait for build-out of more expensive all-electric pathways.
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Vignette: Natural gas improves resilience and comfort of a Midwestern Zero Net Energy home, reducing CO2 at a lower cost
Technologies• Heating: Hydronic radiant system with gas
absorption heat pump• Cooling: Electric heat pump with exterior
condenser and interior evaporator• Water heating: Gas absorption heat pump• Laundry: Standard electric washer and dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard
electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave• Other: Electric battery, building envelope,
programmable thermostat
Profile• Young couple near Chicago, IL• Single family residential
home, 2,200 sq ft• Median income• Most concerned about
sustainability and affordability, to a lesser degree about comfort and resilience
Energy sources• Utility delivered
natural gas• Utility delivered
electricity • Solar roof PV *• Li-ion battery *
Nick Rumas and Shin-ae Kang are building a ZNE home near Chicago, IL. Sustainability is very important to them, as is affordability. Natural gas plays an important part in both of these –efficiently heating, cooking, drying, as well as saving them money in construction and monthly bills.
* Electric bill credits reflect current utility tariffs for customers with PV
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Vignette: Efficient natural gas technologies are a lower cost and faster way for property owners to comply with regional climate policies, while also significantly decreasing energy bills for renters in Hartford, CT
Profile• Family of 4 near Hartford, CT• Rented 1,400 sq ft townhome• Lower income, LIHEAP eligible• Most concerned about affordability, and also with comfort
and safety with kids in the house
Technologies• Heating: Natural gas furnace• Cooling: Electric AC• Water heating: High efficiency gas boiler• Laundry: Standard electric washer and gas dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric
refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave• Other: Building envelope, efficient lighting, low flow
shower heads, programmable thermostat
Paul is a single parent with three children who chose to rent a 1,400 sq ft townhome near Hartford, CT because the landlord had just replaced this older unit’s aging, high maintenance appliances with new, more efficient gas appliances. First cost was very important to the landlord, so he chose the least expensive option available, which was modern gas appliances with energy efficiency incentives from the local gas utility. Paul’s family was able to enjoy the comfort of a warm and efficient home with lower utility bills – and more cash for the holidays.
Notes: Technology choices represent typical decisions made by a landlord of a rental property, homeowners may make different choices
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Vignette: Gas innovation and efficiency is the only practical path for an NYC home to make a near term impact on state 80x50 goals
Gas Losses
Electric LossesGas LossesGas GenerationMarginal Unit
(NYC)
Emissions:10oF: 12.2 lb CO220oF: 6.8 lb CO230oF: 4.1 lb CO2
Emissions:10oF: 7.2 lb CO2 20oF: 6.0 lb CO230oF: 4.8 lb CO2
Electric System Gas Need:10oF: 104,200 Btu20oF: 57,900 Btu30oF: 34,700 Btu
Gas Need:10oF: 61,200 Btu20oF: 51,000 Btu30oF: 40,800 Btu
Electrification
Direct Gas Use(not including future
innovation)
City
Gat
e
Note: Developed in collaboration with Con Edison
Efficient residential gas heating costs NYC customers much less, and below ~25oF has lower CO2 emissions than electric under today’s marginal generation mix
Profile• 2,000 Ft2 single family home, NYC Metro area• Home heated to 70oF• Outside air temperature cases: 10oF to 30oF
The owners of single family home in Queens, NY are concerned about meeting their city’s 80 x 50 goals. They would like to know what role they can play in GHG emission reduction. While they understand that cutting emissions may raise their energy costs, they also want to make sure those expenditures are worthwhile. How would their GHG emissions and costs for space heating change if they switched to an electric heat pump, using current technologies?
70oFASHP vs.
80% Efficient Gas Boiler
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Vignette: Natural gas innovation reduces CO2 and also delivers resilience and affordability to a family in Missouri
Profile• 3,200 sq ft home in eastern Missouri• Family of 4• Most concerned about resilience and affordability
Technologies• Heating: Condensing gas furnace• Cooling: Electric heat pump • Water heating: Gas fired tankless water heater• Laundry: Standard electric washer and dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard
electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave• Other: Building envelope, programmable thermostat
The Johnson family of St Louis, MO, has lived through several ice storms, and chose their current house due to its gas appliances. Their previous home was all electric, and they suffered through the multi-day outages that typically follow ice storms. They like the comfort of their gas furnace, and are interested in learning more about money-saving advanced gas solutions.
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Specific illustrative vignettes of customers achieving this level of reduction in the future through innovative gas technologies were developed, to help communicate the benefits:
• Large single family home in Oregon*
• Coastal house in NJ
• Large residence near Houston, TX
More advanced but proven and scalable gas technologies can achieve COP21 goals for GHG reductions, while also saving money and improving resilience and comfort
60-80%+GHG reduction – sufficient to meet COP21 goals –with inclusion of future CHP and Renewable Gas technologies
Notes:* Example follows
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Vignette: In the future, Renewable Natural Gas is a more affordable and effective way to improve sustainability in an Oregon home
Technologies• Heating: Retrofitted gas furnace (Transport Membrane Humidifier)• Cooling: Electric heat pump• Water heating: Gas tankless water heater• Laundry: Standard electric washer and gas dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric refrigerator,
dishwasher and microwave• Other: Building envelope, IoT based thermostat, Energy management
and information system; outdoor gas heating, gas lighting, EV
Notes: Residential electric rates assume 1% annual escalation per EIA
Profile• 3,400 sq ft home in Portland, OR• Couple in their 50s, no kids• Most concerned about
demonstrating sustainability commitment while enjoying the full potential of technology
Energy sources• Utility delivered
renewable gas• Utility delivered
electricity • Solar roof PV (with net
metering)• Li-ion battery
In 2033, Liliana and Jay have a home outside Portland that is a showplace of new technology, but only a few years ahead in their progressive neighborhood. They showcase the applications of renewable gas – lighting, outdoor heating, indoor, water heating, along with electric – EVs, solar roof, LED lighting, battery - and whole home controls and efficiency that minimizes use of energy wherever possible
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Findings and recommendations• An extensive global search for innovative natural gas end-use technologies in residential and small commercial
sectors surfaced roughly 100 unique potential technologies for all major end-uses available now or in the near term. Based on GHG emission reduction impacts and maturity level, about a third of the technologies were prioritized and further assessed.
• The identified high priority technologies offer a significant efficiency improvement potential (some more than 50%), which can greatly help to achieve GHG emission reduction goals nationwide.
• Pathways for GHG reduction were defined for the major residential and commercial gas end uses. Utilizing the combinations of technologies on these pathways could result in as much as 25-40% GHG emission reduction per customer, when compared to the current installed based of natural gas equipment.
• GHG reductions per customer of over 80% (enough to meet COP21 goals) could be achieved with the future addition of CHP and renewable gas technologies.
• Customer vignette examples were developed to help communicate how a wide variety of customers can use these gas technologies in their everyday life, and experience the benefits of improved affordability, reliability, sustainability and comfort.
• The illustrative customer cases quantified in the vignettes demonstrate that the costs of meeting energy needs while complying with GHG reduction goals will be lower at the customer level if gas is encouraged to fulfill its potential contribution.
• Further analytical work is required to assess the impact of penetration of emerging gas end-use technologies on costs and emissions at the utility system and national levels, and compare key metrics for deep decarbonization pathways with and without new gas technologies
• The gas industry should expand its engagement with regulatory and governmental policy makers, to help build a sound factual basis for long-term GHG reduction strategies that meet GHG goals most cost-effectively
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Content
Executive Summary
Project Scope and Approach
Gas Technologies
End Use Pathways
Vignettes
Appendix
19
1. Gas Technology Pathway
Identification
• Identify and assess emerging natural gas end-use technologies that could contribute materially to GHG reductions
• Assemble candidate gas technologies into end-use pathways for meeting current gas end use needs at lower GHG levels
• Analyze customer benefits
• Analyze how penetration of new gas end-use technologies could change costs and emissions at the system and national levels
• Compare costs of GHG reductions with other pathways
• Understand cumulative GHG impact of implementing gas pathways today vs. waiting for electrification
3. Policy Implications and
Outreach(optional)
• Develop policy advocacy materials
• Analyze potential impacts at state level
Project scope3/5 – 5/2010 weeks TBD TBD
2. Comparative Pathway Performance
(optional)
201. Partial list of key deliverables
• Base scenario definition• Assumptions on customer-
level changes in gas capital and operating costs for major gas end uses
• Estimated changes in gas capital and operating costs at system and national levels
• Comparison of key metrics for deep decarbonization pathways with and without new gas technologies
• Sizing of competitiveness gaps
• Recommendations on effective policy initiatives
• CSR tools for quantifying gas technology social benefits
• State and federal communications materials
• State-level assessment of economics of new gas technologies, from customer perspective
• Draft and final educational materials for participating stakeholders
Key deliverables 1
• Long list of emerging gas technologies, with source materials
• Technical and economic viability of higher priority technologies
• Defined end use gas pathways of high priority technologies
• Estimates of GHG emissions reduction potential across gas pathways at customer level
• First drafts of customer vignettes and core advocacy documents
• Steering Committee and Board presentations
1. Gas Technology Pathway Identification
3. Policy Implications
and Outreach (optional)
2. Comparative Pathway
Performance(optional)
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The focus of our research was on all major end uses for gas in residential sector…
Comments
Prim
ary
End
Use
sRe
mai
ning
End
Use
s
Cooking
Water Heating
Space Heating
1,802
Clothes WashersFreezers
DishwashersFurnace Fans
ComputersClothes Dryers
TelevisionsRefrigeration
LightingSpace Cooling
Other Uses 1,694
901455
345
108242
74
26
94
282
104
Gas Electric Other
Residential Energy End-use , 20161
Trillion Btu
Notes:1. EIA, AEO 2018. Natural gas consumption is only broken out by space heating, cooking, water heating, clothes drying, and space cooling. All other end uses of natural gas are
represented in “Other Uses”
4,051
347
• EIA’s 2016 estimate of actual residential consumption by end-use shows space heating, water heating, cooking and other uses accounted for almost all direct gas consumption
• GHG reduction pathways to be constructed will reflect:- Retaining the customer share
of gas in its primary end uses through new technologies (e.g., improved space heating, water heating, cooking)
- Displacing central station electric power production by gas-fired onsite production (CHP and mCHP)
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…As well as small commercial sector
Comments
Prim
ary
End
Use
sRe
mai
ning
End
Use
s
Cooking
Water Heating
Space Heating
Office equipment
Computers and…
Lighting
Ventilation
Space Cooling
Refrigeration
Other Uses
Gas Electric Other
1,925
402
609
353334
640
498
518
588
3,039
Commercial Energy End-use, 20161
Trillion Btu
Notes:1. EIA, AEO 2018. Natural gas consumption is only broken out by space heating, cooking, water heating, and space cooling. All other end uses of natural gas are represented in
“Other Uses”
• EIA’s 2016 estimate of actual commercial consumption by end-use shows space heating, water heating, cooking and other uses (including drying) accounted for almost all direct gas consumption
• GHG reduction pathways to be constructed will reflect:- Retaining the customer share
of gas in its primary end uses through new technologies
- Increasing customer share for gas in in some end uses (e.g., cooling)
- Displacing central station electric power production by gas-fired onsite production (CHP and mCHP)
23
Natural Gas End-Uses
We found that global innovation is accelerating in traditional applications as well as emerging applications such as resilience and transportation. RNG will decarbonize gas more fundamentally.
Notes: Transportation technologies were not the main focus of the project; Renewable Natural Gas technologies were outside of the project scope
Space Heating & Cooling
Cooking
Laundry
Water Heating
72Cogeneration/ Resilience
Transportation
Renewable Natural Gas
Energy Management &
Building Efficiency
24
End-use pathways
Our objective was to identify innovative gas technologies and translate their impact into customer value and environmental benefits
Note: Some technologies have multiple end uses and can be used in the residential and commercial sectors. These technologies are represented in all applicable sections
Innovation area1 Condensing Technology
2 Hot water heating / boilers
3 Kitchen4 On-Site Generation5 Burners6 Heat Pumps
7 Changes to laundry processing
8 Solar Thermal / Heat Recovery
9 Improved Energy Management
10 Transportation11 Building Envelope12 Miscellaneous
1Technologies1.
Con
dens
ing
Tech
nolo
gyIntegrated contact condensing water heaterIn-situ flue burner - applying premix burners to storage GWHTransport Membrane Humidifier (TMH)High efficiency condensing condo packsResidential condensing water heaterCondensing wall furnaceRooftop units - heating and coolingCondensing economizer
2. B
oile
rs
Tankless water heaterSolar-assisted heatingThermal compression gas heat pumpCombined space and water heating systems
3. K
itche
n
Combination steam and heat ovenBoilerless steamerSmoke sensors in exhaust system to control ventilation
2 3Customer value
Affordability
Sustainability
Resilience
Comfort
4
25
Wide range of sources from around the globe helped identify gas technologies that contribute to GHG reduction
Data Sources (partial list) List of Technologies (examples)
• Condensing heat exchangers• Condensing economizer• Solar-assisted heating• Tankless water heater• High efficiency thermoelectric generators• Enhanced radiant heat transfer• Burner technology advancements (multiple)• 3D printing for industrial burner design/production• Advanced Gas Dryer Development• Heat wheels for residential (air-to-air heat exchanger)• Kitchen demand control ventilation • Gas infrared drying• Ozone laundry• Liquid desiccant air conditioning/humidity control• Gas Engine Heat Pump• Gas fuel cell (multiple technologies)• CHP : > 50kW and micro CHP (multiple technologies)• Intelligent Energy Management (multiple)• Hybrid homes (gas + electric)• Zero Net Emission Home• …
• Desk Research– ARPA-E– Canada Natural Gas Innovation Fund– Canadian Gas Association– Center for Climate and Energy Solutions– Gas Technology Institute (GTI) reports and Utilization
Technology Department– Fraunhofer Institute– Korea Gas– Tokyo Gas– US DOE: NETL, NREL
• Personal communications– Engie– European Research Institute for Gas & Technology
Innovation (ERIG)– Gas and Heat Institute (GWI - Germany)– Gas Union Fenosa– GTI End-Use Department section leaders– Orsted– Osaka Gas– Other members of IGU Utilization Committee– UC Irvine– Westport Innovations– West River Capital
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Content
Executive Summary
Project Scope and Approach
Gas Technologies
End Use Pathways
Vignettes
Appendix
27
We conducted extensive research, interviews and a workshop to identify over 100 unique gas technologies across 12 categories
1. Some technologies have multiple end uses and can be used in both the residential and commercial sectors. These technologies are represented in more than one row
Technical concept End-Use Sector # of Technologies Reviewed1
Condensing Technology
Space cooling Commercial 2
Space heatingResidential 1Commercial 3
Industrial 1
Water heatingResidential 4Commercial 1
Industrial 1Total >> 13
Hot water heating / boilers
Space heating Residential 3Water heating Residential 7
Total >> 10
Kitchen
Cooking Residential 1Cooking Commercial 4
Water heating Commercial 1Total >> 6
On-Site Generation
Space cooling Residential 7Commercial 3
Space heating Residential 7Commercial 3
Water heating Residential 1Total >> 21
Burners
Cooking Commercial 2Laundry Industrial 1
Other Industrial 1Water heating Residential 2
Total >> 6
Heat Pumps
Space cooling Residential 5Commercial 5
Space heating Residential 6Commercial 5
Water heating Residential 2Total >> 23
Changes to laundry processing
LaundryResidential 3Commercial 4
Industrial 1Total >> 8
Technical concept End-Use Sector # of Technologies Reviewed1
Solar Thermal / Heat Recovery
Space cooling Residential 1Commercial 1
Space heating Residential 3Commercial 1
Water heating Residential 1Other Agriculture 1
Total >> 8
Improved Energy Management
Space coolingResidential 5Commercial 3
Industrial 1
Space heatingResidential 5Commercial 3
Industrial 1Water heating Residential 3
Other Industrial 2Total >> 23
Transportation Transportation Transportation 10Total >> 10
Building Envelope
Space cooling Residential 3Commercial 3
Space heating Residential 3Commercial 3
Total >> 12
MiscellaneousSpace cooling Residential 1
Commercial 1Space heating Commercial 1
Total >> 3
Totals
Cooking 7Laundry 9
Other 4Space cooling 41Space heating 49Transportation 10Water heating 23
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Long list of end-use gas technologies (1 of 3)Technical Concept Code Application/Project End-Use Sector
Condensing Technology
A.1 Rooftop units - heating and cooling Space heating/cooling C
A.2 Integrated Contact Condensing Water Heater Water heating R
A.3 In-Situ Flue Burner - applying premix burners to storage GWH Water heating R
A.4 Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) - Retrofit Device for High-Efficiency Residential Heating and Humidification Space heating R
A.5 High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs Space heating/coolingWater heating C
A.6 Residential Condensing Water Heater Water heating R
A.7 Condensing Wall Furnace Water heating R
A.8 Condensing economizer - Extracts latent heat from boiler flue gas; usually in series with (sensible) heat exchanger. Industrial Boilers; high pressure > 85 psi Space and water heating C/I
Hot Water Heating / Boilers
B.1 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters Water heating R
B.2 Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable) Water heating R
B.3 Thermal compression gas heat pump Space heating R
B.4 SuperPerm Burner for Water Heaters Water heating R
B.5 Combined Space and Water Heating Systems Space and water heating R
B.6 Steam Boiler with built-in energy recovery Space and water heating R
B.7 Residential Vapor Vacuum Heating Water heating R
B.8 Oxygen Membrane Enhanced Burner - Polymer in the burner assembly that enriches oxygen constituency in the combustion air; higherpermanence than other materials and allows for higher oxygen content which increases combustion efficiency Water heating R
Kitchen
C.1 Grease Trap Htx - Extract heat from waste grease to pre-heat hot water Water heating C
C.2Kitchen ventilation improvement by using smoke sensors in exhaust stream and using information to control variable speed fans in the exhaust Demand control kitchen ventilation (DCKV) using sensor and optimization of fan use Demand control (DCKV) systems were developed that adjust
Cooking C
C.3 Combination steam and heat oven Cooking R/C
C.4 Commercial Pilotless Gas Range Cooking C
C.5 Boilerless steamer (duplicate below) – Multi-stacked convention steamer for high volume cooking Cooking C
On-Site Generation
D.1 High Efficiency Thermoelectric Generators Water heating R
D.2 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Conventional Stirling Space heating/cooling R
D.3 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Resonance Stirling Space heating/cooling R
D.4 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW – GRI micro-turbine Space heating/cooling R/C
D.5 Zero Net Emission Home Space heating/cooling R
D.6 1 kwe residential-scale CHP system Space heating/cooling R
D.7 Solid oxide fuel cells Space heating/cooling R/C
Sources: GTI, UTD, NREL, EP expertise, interviews with industry experts and others
29
Long list of end-use gas technologies (2 of 3)
Technical Concept Code Application/Project End-Use Sector
Burners
E.1 Demonstration high production fryers Cooking C
E.2 Conveyor Broiler improvements – Redesign of existing combustion system Cooking C
E.3 Enhanced radiant heat transfer with advanced coatings – High emissivity coating that reduces porosity of thermal burners Laundry I
E.4 Unplugged ENERGY STAR Water Heater Water heating R
E.5 3D-printed industrial process burner Other I
E.6 Unplugged power burners – Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology and ultra-low power gas water-heater control technology Water heating R
Heat Pumps
F.1 Next Aire GEHP – performance evaluation. Natural-gas-engine driven heat pump in a heating-dominated climate Space heating / cooling R/C
F.2 Residential gas heat-pump water heater Water heating R
F.3 Application of innovative gas heat-pump design to space conditioning Space heating / cooling R/C
F.4 Thermally-driven ground-source heat pump Space heating / cooling R/C
F.5 Thermally-driven fluidic compressor; evaporation phase energy is captured and reused in the refrigeration process; achieve higher COPs in the cycle Space heating / cooling C
F.6 Thermolift heat pump – cold-climate, natural gas air-conditioner and heat pump technology Space heating / cooling R/C
F.7 Electric heat pump + gas furnace Space heating / cooling R
F.8 Solar thermal heat pump Space and water heating R
Changes to Laundry Processing
G.1 Next generation advanced gas dryer development – high efficiency dryer technology options including, but not limited to, heat recovery, indirect firing, direct venting, and advanced burners. Laundry R
G.2 Commercial dryer modulating gas retrofit Laundry C
G.3 Dryer moisture sensor retrofit Laundry R
G.4 Chemicals for commercial laundry (non-ozone) Laundry C
G.5 Advanced gas infra-red burner to compete with electric Laundry C/I
G.6 Use ozone and cold water instead of detergent and hot water, saving energy and providing better wash characteristics Laundry R/C
Solar Thermal/ Heat Recovery
H.1 Heat wheels (air-to-air heat exchanger) – Use enthalpy in HVAC return air to pre-heat inlet air drawn from the atmosphere Apceheating R
H.2 Thermal destratification fans – recycle the air in your HVAC system Space heating/cooling C/I
H.3 Air solar collector system – air passing through the collector picks up heat from the absorber plate Space heating R
H.4 Multifamily reflective heat barriers – reduce hat gain and cooling costs Space heating/cooling R
H.5 Flue gas condenser for heat recovery Water heating R
H.6 HE grain dryer – waste heat exchanger and recovery built into grain dryer Other A
Sources: GTI, UTD, NREL, EP expertise, interviews with industry experts and others
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Long list of end-use gas technologies (3 of 3)
Technical Concept Code Application/Project End-Use Sector
Improved Energy Management
I.1 Variable Vent Louvres – Wireless sensors communicate to smart thermostat; vary air flow to meet temperature set point Space heating / cooling R
I.2 Outdoor-air-temperature-based ventilation control Space heating / cooling R
I.3 IoT based thermostats (ie Nest, Honeywell, etc.) Space heating / cooling R
I.4 Variable vent louvres - Wireless sensors communicate to smart thermostat; vary air flow to meet temperature set point Space heating / cooling R
I.5 Wireless Steam Trap Monitor – Detects failed open or close steam trap and provides alarm at centralized control Other C/I
I.6 Predictive Analytics Energy Management System Overlay – Continuous based commissioning of existing BAS Space heating / cooling C/I
I.7 Multi-family Demand Controls for Central Domestic HW Systems – Automated controls learn behavior and temperature patterns and adjusts set point (potable) Water heating R
I.8 Thermostatically Controlled Low Flow Shower Head – Restriction head adjusts automatically based on temperature and flow Water heating R
I.9 Energy Management and Information System (EMIS) Space heating / cooling R/C
I.10 Innovative On-Demand WH Pump Water heating R
I.11 Commercial Pneumatic Thermostat Space heating / cooling C
I.12 Automated O2 Control Systems Other I
Transportation
J.1 Natural Gas Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles Running on Compressed Natural Gas Transportation T
J.2 Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (Hydrogen) Transportation T
J.3 Natural-gas Vehicle Home-refueling Appliances Transportation T
J.4 Free-piston Linear-motor Compressor Transportation T
J.5 CWI 6.7-Liter Medium-duty Engine Development Transportation T
J.6 Improvements in High-volume Dispensing Performance Transportation T
J.7 Free-piston Linear-motor Compressor Scale-up Transportation T
J.8 CNG Fuel Station Safety, Performance, and Best Practices Audit Kit Transportation T
J.9 High-Volume, Off-Road CNG Applications Analysis Transportation T
J.10 13- to 15-Liter Heavy-Duty Natural Gas Engines for Class 8 Trucks Transportation T
Building Envelope
K.1 Insulation Space heating / cooling R/C
K.2 Advanced Aerogel Insulating Material for Window Insulation Space heating / cooling R/C
K.3 Building Materials Space heating / cooling R/C
K.4 Windows Space heating / cooling R/C
Miscellaneous L.1 Commercial and Industrial Air Barriers Space heating / cooling C/I
L.2 Natural Gas Cooling Space cooling R
Sources: GTI, UTD, NREL, EP expertise, interviews with industry experts and others
31
All technologies were first assessed against level of impact and time to market, as well as several other criteria
CommentsArea Assessment criteria
Energy and GHG Impacts
Impact on energy consumption (kWh/MMBtu)Impact on electric peak (kW) or gas peak (MMCFD)
Overall efficiency improvement and GHG emissions reduction
Accessible market size
Technology Maturity
Commercial availability < 5 yearsCommercial availability 5 to 10 yearsCommercial availability 10 to 15 years
Non-energy benefits
Effective use of waste heatOther factors – e.g., comfort; indoor air quality
EconomicsOverall economicsSusceptible to use of renewable gasHighly dependent on turnover of current stock
Regulatory/ Commercial Barriers
Technical barriers – relies on high GHG impact materialsPractical barriers – space to installSafetyBuilding codesRegulator-approved rebatesLDC ability to market
ScaleStandardization of configurationEase of scaling up to produce modules at scale
• Assessment framework helped prioritize gas technologies based on relative level of impact and market readiness
• Additional research gathered data to serve as foundation for: – Estimating energy savings and
emissions impact at technology level– Incorporating into relevant end use
pathways – Estimating energy savings and
emissions impact at customer and pathway levels
– Mapping economics and barriers into expected market penetration rates
32
High potential technologies were prioritized for further analysis
Notes: Technologies were scored on 5-point scale (5=best) across multiple criteria by Enovation, GTI, and other industry experts. Prioritization results were robust across different experts and alternative weighting schemes.
Technical concept Application/project Overall
ScoreCondensing Technology
A.4 Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) - Retrofit Device for High-Efficiency Residential Heating and Humidification 3.8A.5 High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs 3.2
Hot water heating / boilers
B.1 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters 3.2B.2 Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable) 3.4B.3 Thermal compression gas heat pump 3.2B.5 Combined Space and Water Heating Systems 3.1
KitchenC.2 Kitchen ventilation improvement by using smoke sensors in exhaust stream and using information to control variable speed fans in the exhaust
Demand control kitchen ventilation (DCKV) using sensor and optimization of fan use Demand control (DCKV) systems were developed that adjust 3.4
C.3 Combination steam and heat oven 3.7C.5 Boilerless steamer – Multi-stacked convention steamer for high volume cooking 3.2
On-Site Generation
D.2 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Conventional Stirling 3.1D.4 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - GRI 3.2D.5 Zero Net Emission Home 3.3D.7 Solid oxide fuel cells 3.1
BurnersE.1 Demonstration high production fryers 3.3E.6 Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology and ultra-low power gas-water-heater control 4.0
Heat PumpsF.1 Next Aire GEHP - performance evaluation. Natural-gas-engine driven heat pump in a heating-dominated climate 3.4
F.2 Residential gas heat-pump water heater 4.1F.3 Application of Innovative Gas Heat-Pump Design to Space Conditioning 3.9
Changes to laundry processing
G.4 Chemicals for Commercial Laundry (non-ozone) 3.7
G.6 Use ozone and cold water instead of detergent and hot water, saving energy and providing better wash characteristics 3.3
Improved Energy Management
I.1 A simplified method for determining duct leakage in weatherization audits 3.2I.3 IoT based thermostats (e.g. Nest, Honeywell) 3.7
I.7 Multi-family Demand Controls for Central Domestic HW Systems - Automated controls learn behavior and temperature patterns and adjusts set points (potable) 3.1
I.8 Thermostatically controlled low flow shower head - restriction head adjusts automatically based on temperature and flow 3.2Transportation J.2 Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen) 3.1Building Envelope K.1 Insulation 3.7
33
Scoring details for high priority technologies Technical concept Code Application/project
Efficiency Benefit
GHG Benefit
Non-Energy / Emission Benefits
Barriers to Adoption
Economics
Accessible Market /
Scale
Overall Score
Rating (1 = worst, 5 = best)
Condensing Technology
A.4 Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) - Retrofit Device for High-Efficiency Residential Heating and Humidification 4 4 2 4 4 4 3.8
A.5 High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs 4 4 3 2 2 3 3.2
Hot water heating / boilers
B.1 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters 3 3 1 4 2 5 3.2B.2 Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable) 4 5 5 2 2 2 3.4B.3 Thermal compression gas heat pump 4 4 2 3 2 3 3.2B.5 Combined Space and Water Heating Systems 3 3 4 3 3 3 3.1
KitchenC.2
Kitchen ventilation improvement by using smoke sensors in exhaust stream and using information to control variable speed fans in the exhaust Demand control kitchen ventilation (DCKV) using sensor and optimization of fan use Demand control (DCKV) systems were developed that adjust
3 3 2 5 2 5 3.4
C.3 Combination steam and heat oven 4 4 4 4 3 3 3.7C.5 Boilerless steamer - Multistacked convention steamer for high volume cooking 3 3 4 4 3 3 3.2
On-Site Generation
D.2 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Conventional Stirling 4 3 4 2 2 3 3.1D.4 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - GRI 4 3 4 3 2 3 3.2D.5 Zero Net Emission Home 5 5 5 2 1 1 3.3D.7 Solid oxide fuel cells 4 5 3 2 1 2 3.1
BurnersE.1 Demonstration high production fryers 3 3 4 4 4 3 3.3
E.6 Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology and ultra-low power gas-water-heater control technology 4 4 4 2 4 5 4.0
Heat PumpsF.1 Next Aire GEHP - performance evaluation. Natural-gas-engine driven heat pump in
a heating-dominated climate 3 3 5 4 4 3 3.4
F.2 Residential gas heat-pump water heater 5 5 2 3 4 4 4.1F.3 Application of Innovative Gas Heat-Pump Design to Space Conditioning 5 5 4 2 3 3 3.9
Changes to laundry processing
G.4 Chemicals for Commercial Laundry (non-ozone) 3 4 5 2 2 5 3.7
G.6 Use ozone and cold water instead of detergent and hot water, saving energy and providing better wash characteristics 3 3 4 2 2 5 3.3
Improved Energy Management
I.1 A simplified method for determining duct leakage in weatherization audits 3 3 4 3 4 3 3.2I.3 IoT based thermostats (ie Nest, Honeywell, etc.) 3 3 5 4 4 4 3.7
I.7 Multi-family Demand Controls for Central Domestic HW Systems - Automated controls learn behavior and temperature patterns and adjusts set points (potable) 3 3 3 4 3 3 3.1
I.8 Thermostatically controlled low flow shower head - restriction head adjusts automatically based on temperature and flow 2 2 3 3 5 5 3.2
Transportation J.2 Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen) 4 4 3 3 2 2 3.1Building Envelope K.1 Insulation 3 3 3 5 3 5 3.7
Notes: Technologies were scored across multiple criteria by Enovation, GTI, and other industry experts. Prioritization results were robust across different experts and alternative weighting schemes.
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Content
Executive Summary
Project Scope and Approach
Gas Technologies
End Use Pathways
Vignettes
Appendix
35
Pathways Technology Estimated First Cost GHG Reduction
Avai
labl
e To
day
Space heating & cooling
Gas engine heat pump + building envelope + IoT based thermostats N/A 50-55%
Gas recip – CHP + building envelope + IoT based thermostats $4,000-6,500/kW + $1,000-2,000 45-65%
Condensing furnace + building envelope + IoT based thermostats $3,000-$4,000 25-35%
Water heating
Tankless water heater $1,200-1,500 25-30%
Condensing storage water heater $1,500-3,500 15-20%
Residential gas heat pump water heater $1,600-2,000 45-55%
Combined space and water heater $6,000-10,000 30-40%
Laundry Ozone clothes washing $250-500 45-50%
Cooking
High production fryers $5,000-6,000 30-40%
Boilerless steamer $9,000-10,000 15-20%
Combination steam and heat oven $14,000-15,000 55-60%
Transportation Commercial compressed natural gas vehicles Variable 10-20%
Avai
labl
e N
ear T
erm
Space heating & cooling
Low-cost residential gas absorption heat pump (GAHP) combi N/A 50-55%
Solid oxide fuel cell N/A 55-75%
Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) $450-685 25-35%
Water Heating Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) $1,000-1,200 20-25%
Laundry Advanced gas dryer N/A 0-5%
Transportation Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen) N/A >50%
Prioritized current and near-term technologies were combined into coherent end use pathways* to illustrate customer benefits
* Many other technologically compatible combinations possible
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Combining emerging end-use technologies in the residential sector creates multiple pathways for customers to reduce GHG emissions
Water heating,up to 55%
• Absorption heat pump
Laundry, 55%• Gas dryer• Ozone washing • Gas stove
• Gas oven
Space Cooling, up to 45%Space Heating, up to 40%• Gas heat pump
72
Cooking, minimal change
Building Efficiency, 10-45%• IoT based thermostat• Building Envelope
Notes: GHG reduction potential is estimated based on efficiency improvements over stock average gas equipment efficiency and building envelope in 2016
37
Combining emerging end-use technologies in the commercial sector creates multiple pathways for customers to reduce GHG emissions
Notes: GHG reduction potential is estimated based on efficiency improvements over stock average gas equipment efficiency and building envelope in 2016
Transportation, up to 20%• Commercial compressed natural
gas vehicles
Cooking, up to 40%• High efficiency
fryer
Energy Management & Building Efficiency, 10-45%• Building Envelope• IOT Thermostat
Water heating, up to 15%• Condensing storage
Electric Generation, Space Heating, up to 50%• CHP, Gas Recip
Engine
38
Content
Executive Summary
Project Scope and Approach
Gas Technologies
End Use Pathways
Vignettes
Appendix
39
Value Drivers Time Customer
type State Possible Customer Vignettes Matching Gas Technologies(showcase examples)
Sustainability
Today Residential IL 1*. Zero Net Energy home • Hydronic radiant system with gas absorption heat pump
Future Residential OR/CA 2*. Large single family home in suburban area – goal of being sustainable and technologically advanced
• Renewable natural gas• Retrofitted gas furnace with
Transport Membrane Humidifier
Affordability Today
Residential
CT 3*. Low income family renting a townhome trying to manage their utility bills while maintaining comfort
• Natural gas furnace• High efficiency gas boiler• Gas dryer
NY 4*. Middle income family in Queens, NY in a single family home • Gas boiler
FL 5. Fixed income retiree in a small house • TBD
Commercial
MA 6. Residential developer/builder deciding whether to include access to gas in the new development • TBD
OH 7. Restaurant owner wanting to make high quality healthy food at affordable prices • TBD
CA 8. Public bus system in a city looking to provide the service cheaply and sustainably • TBD
ResilienceToday Residential MO 9*. Single family home choosing gas powered appliances after
having lived through power outages• Condensing gas furnace• Gas fired tankless water heater
Future Residential NJ, VA, NC 10. Coastal house • TBD
ComfortToday Residential MI 11. Single family home • TBD
Future Residential TX 12. Large residence near Houston with a heated pool, hot tub and backup generation • TBD
* Examples follow
Note: Vignettes can be easily customized by gas utilities or other interested parties. Please contact AGA for assistance.
A portfolio of vignettes can represent a range of customer circumstances and value mixes.
Customer vignettes are an effective way of communicating gas technology benefits to participants in energy policy discussions
40
Vignette 1: Natural gas improves resilience and comfort of a Midwestern Zero Net Energy home, reducing CO2 at a lower cost
Technologies• Heating: Hydronic radiant system with gas
absorption heat pump• Cooling: Electric heat pump with exterior
condenser and interior evaporator• Water heating: Gas absorption heat pump• Laundry: Standard electric washer and dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard
electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave• Other: Electric battery, building envelope,
programmable thermostat
Profile• Young couple near Chicago, IL• Single family residential
home, 2,200 sq ft• Median income• Most concerned about
sustainability and affordability, to a lesser degree about comfort and resilience
Energy sources• Utility delivered
natural gas• Utility delivered
electricity • Solar roof PV (with
net metering)• Li-ion battery
Nick Rumas and Shin-ae Kang are building a ZNE home near Chicago, IL. Sustainability is very important to them, as is affordability. Natural gas plays an important part in both of these –efficiently heating, cooking, drying, as well as saving them money in construction and monthly bills.
41
Vignette 2: In the future, Renewable Natural Gas is a more affordable and effective way to improve sustainability in an Oregon home
Technologies• Heating: Retrofitted gas furnace (Transport Membrane Humidifier)• Cooling: Electric heat pump• Water heating: Gas tankless water heater• Laundry: Standard electric washer and gas dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric refrigerator,
dishwasher and microwave• Other: Building envelope, IoT based thermostat, Energy management
and information system; outdoor gas heating, gas lighting, EV
Notes: Residential electric rates assume 1% annual escalation per EIA
Profile• 3,400 sq ft home in Portland, OR• Couple in their 50s, no kids• Most concerned about
demonstrating sustainability commitment while enjoying the full potential of technology
Energy sources• Utility delivered
renewable gas• Utility delivered
electricity • Solar roof PV (with net
metering)• Li-ion battery
In 2033, Liliana and Jay have a home outside Portland that is a showplace of new technology, but only a few years ahead in their progressive neighborhood. They showcase the applications of renewable gas – lighting, outdoor heating, indoor, water heating, along with electric – EVs, solar roof, LED lighting, battery - and whole home controls and efficiency that minimizes use of energy wherever possible
42
Vignette 3: Efficient natural gas technologies are a lower cost and faster way for property owners to comply with regional climate policies, while also significantly decreasing energy bills for renters in Hartford, CT
Profile• Family of 4 near Hartford, CT• Rented 1,400 sq ft townhome• Lower income, LIHEAP eligible• Most concerned about affordability, and also with comfort
and safety with kids in the house
Technologies• Heating: Natural gas furnace• Cooling: Electric AC• Water heating: High efficiency gas boiler• Laundry: Standard electric washer and gas dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric
refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave• Other: Building envelope, efficient lighting, low flow
shower heads, programmable thermostat
Paul is a single parent with three children who chose to rent a 1,400 sq ft townhome near Hartford, CT because the landlord had just replaced this older unit’s aging, high maintenance appliances with new, more efficient gas appliances. First cost was very important to the landlord, so he chose the least expensive option available, which was modern gas appliances with energy efficiency incentives from the local gas utility. Paul’s family was able to enjoy the comfort of a warm and efficient home with lower utility bills – and more cash for the holidays.
Notes: Technology choices represent typical decisions made by a landlord of a rental property, homeowners may make different choices
43
Vignette 4a: Gas innovation and efficiency is the only practical path for an NYC home to make a near term impact on state 80x50 goals
Gas Losses
Electric LossesGas LossesGas GenerationMarginal Unit
(NYC)
Emissions:10oF: 12.2 lb CO220oF: 6.8 lb CO230oF: 4.1 lb CO2
Emissions:10oF: 7.2 lb CO2 20oF: 6.0 lb CO230oF: 4.8 lb CO2
Electric System Gas Need:10oF: 104,200 Btu20oF: 57,900 Btu30oF: 34,700 Btu
Gas Need:10oF: 61,200 Btu20oF: 51,000 Btu30oF: 40,800 Btu
Electrification
Direct Gas Use(not including future
innovation)
City
Gat
e
Note: Developed in collaboration with Con Edison
Efficient residential gas heating costs NYC customers much less, and below ~25oF has lower CO2 emissions than electric under today’s marginal generation mix
Profile• 2,000 Ft2 single family home, NYC Metro area• Home heated to 70oF• Outside air temperature cases: 10oF to 30oF
The owners of single family home in Queens, NY are concerned about meeting their city’s 80 x 50 goals. They would like to know what role they can play in GHG emission reduction. While they understand that cutting emissions may raise their energy costs, they also want to make sure those expenditures are worthwhile. How would their GHG emissions and costs for space heating change if they switched to an electric heat pump, using current technologies?
70oFASHP vs.
80% Efficient Gas Boiler
44
Summary• Total energy delivered by the gas system
significantly exceeds the energy delivered by the electric system ‒ At summer peak, the gas system delivers more
than twice the energy delivered by the electric system (1,770 MDt/day vs. 870 MDt/day) as gas also supports local electric and steam generation
‒ At winter peak, gas is about 60% more than summer (2,780 MDt/day vs. 1,770 MDt/day), and 3X more than the electric energy delivered at summer peak
‒ One fundamental reason for the primacy of gas – customer heating needs require changing room temperatures up to 60oF, while cooling requires less than 25oF
Vignette 4b: New York City and Westchester rely heavily on gas; electrification means fundamental redesign
Note: Developed in collaboration with Con Edison
45
Summary
• System impact of electrification: building the electric delivery system to well beyond its current peak day delivery – With about 23% Electric System Energy Efficiency and 80% Renewables, a shift to 100% electric
heat and hot water may need to support a winter peak of up to ~29,000 MW, compared to a current electric peak of ~13,300 MW in summer and ~9,000 MW in winter
– With about 60% Electric System Energy Efficiency and 70% Renewables, a shift to 100% electric heat and hot water may need to support a winter peak of up to ~18,500 MW, compared to a current electric peak of ~13,300 MW in summer and ~9,000 MW in winter
• Customer impact of electrification to achieve 80 X 50 GHG Reduction Goals will lead to significantly higher energy bills and significant retrofit expense– Higher bills: ~ $3,700/ year today (2018$) to ~ $9,000/year in 2050 ($2018) for 2,000 Ft2 single
family home– Direct customer cost for incremental electric retrofit: ~ $25k-$35k ($2018)
Vignette 4c: Electrification of New York City and Westchester to achieve 80 X 50 presents technical and customer cost challenges
Note: Developed in collaboration with Con Edison
46
Vignette template 5: Fixed-income retiree in Florida Primary values: Affordability and Comfort
Mary retired to a senior development in The Villages, Florida in 2007. Her primary energy concerns are around future increases in her utility bills, and surprises when she needs to spend her savings on home repairs. She enjoys cooking with gas and the warmth of her heating system on the occasional chilly evening.
Profile• 1,600 sq ft home in northern Florida• Retired for over a decade, with careful budgeting to
enjoy lifestyle and family• Most concerned about predictability of bills and
minimization of maintenance
Technologies• Heating and Cooling: High Efficiency Condensing Condo
Packs (A.5)• Water heating: Condensing water heater (A.6)• Drying: Standard electric• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven
Illustrative
47
Vignette template 6: Home developerPrimary values: Affordability, Sustainability and Customer Choice
Profile• Home developers have to make a decision on how much
electrical and gas infrastructure to provide• Level of electric and gas delivery capacity installed depends on
view of future technology and usage trends• Including gas infrastructure provides homeowners a choice of
using gas appliances, which are often more economical• Access to gas also allows for additional amenities, e.g. gas
fireplaces, grills which increase comfort and the value of homes and provide more choices to homeowners
Technologies• Heating: Electric heat pump + Gas furnace (F.7), • Cooling: Electric heat pump• Water heating: Gas fired tankless water heater (B.1)• Drying: Standard electric• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven• Other: Gas fireplace, building envelope (K.1, K.3, K.4), IoT
thermostat (I.3)• Future: CHP micro-turbine (D.4)
A residential developer in greater Boston is faced with the decision to incorporate gas infrastructure in her development plan. She is worried about additional cost, but doesn’t want to limit customer choice, and may receive a price premium for offering highly efficient gas to buyers
Illustrative
48
Vignette template 7a: NGVs on a RNGPrimary goals: Sustainability and Affordability
The state of California is looking to reduce carbon emissions from transportation via several policies: Assembly Bill 32 (AB32), Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Renewable Fuel Standard Program (federal)
Policy• LCFS uses a market-based cap and trade approach to lowering
the greenhouse gas emissions from petroleum-based transportation fuels
• Signed into law in 2007 beginning with a 0.25% in 2011 culminating in a 10% total reduction in 2020 in carbon intensity
Outcome• Policies have created financial value in converting current
fleets of medium and heavy duty vehicle to CNG or other cleaner fuels (via RIN and LCFS credits)
• Resulting adoption rate is very high. More than 80% of NGVs on the road currently use RNG
1. The same mileage is assumed for both types of vehicles
Illustrative
49
• California Whole Home Energy Efficiency Upgrade Program– Rebate up to $5,500 for whole-home EE upgrades (based on efficiency points)– Includes furnace, water heater, windows, insulation, air conditioning– Specially trained contractors provide advice on whole-home approach– Has the potential to generate much more reduction than piece-by-piece
rebates
• California Heavy Duty Vehicle Incentive Program (HVIP)– Focused on a difficult to address segment (HD Trucks)– Up to $40,000 per truck employing ultra-low-NOx engine
Vignette 7b: CA Policy vignette
50
Vignette 9: Natural gas innovation reduces CO2 and also delivers resilience and affordability to a family in Missouri
Profile• 3,200 sq ft home in eastern Missouri• Family of 4• Most concerned about resilience and affordability
Technologies• Heating: Condensing gas furnace• Cooling: Electric heat pump • Water heating: Gas fired tankless water heater• Laundry: Standard electric washer and dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard
electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave• Other: Building envelope, programmable thermostat
The Johnson family of St Louis, MO, has lived through several ice storms, and chose their current house due to its gas appliances. Their previous home was all electric, and they suffered through the multi-day outages that typically follow ice storms. They like the comfort of their gas furnace, and are interested in learning more about money-saving advanced gas solutions.
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Profile• 10,000 sq ft house• Access to electrical grid and gas connection• Owner most concerned with ongoing large energy
consumption, but also with power outages during hurricane season
• Largest energy uses are: heating pool, cooling and heating house and domestic hot water heating
Technologies• Power: Micro CHP (D.4), grid electricity and utility delivered
gas• Heating: Micro CHP (D.4)• Cooling: Electric heat pump• Water heating: Gas fired tankless water heater (B.1)• Drying: Standard electric• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; outdoor gas grill• Other: Building envelope (K.1, K.3, K.4), IoT thermostat (I.3),
gas fireplace
Vignette template 12: Large home near HoustonPrimary values: Comfort and Resilience
Owners of a large residence near Houston, TX want to make their home comfortable for family, and welcoming for entertaining. Natural gas plays a role in the enjoyment of their home, and with innovative technologies, the homeowners can substantially improve efficiency. Their energy needs include heating and cooling their 10,000 sq ft house, hot water for 6 bathrooms, cooking, lighting, heating a pool and a hot tub and backup generation. Despite the volume of use, they are concerned with on-going monthly energy costs and wants to make sure that their home stays safe and online, even in severe storms.
Illustrative
52
Content
Executive Summary
Project Scope and Approach
Gas Technologies
End Use Pathways
Vignettes
Appendix
53
Detailed scoring for all technologies (1 of 5)
Technical concept Code Application/project
Efficiency Benefit
GHG Benefit
Non-Energy / Emission Benefits
Barriers to Adoption
Economics
Accessible Market /
Scale
Overall Score
Rating (1 = worst, 5 = best)
Condensing Technology
A.1 Rooftop units - heating and cooling 3 3 2 2 3 4 3.0A.2 Integrated Contact Condensing Water Heater 3 3 3 3 3 3 3.0A.3 In-Situ Flue Burner 2 2 3 3 2 3 2.4A.4 Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) 4 4 2 4 4 4 3.8A.5 High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs 4 4 3 2 2 3 3.2A.6 Residential Condensing Water Heater 3 3 2 2 2 4 2.9A.7 Condensing Wall Furnace 3 3 3 2 3 2 2.7
A.8 Condensing economizer - Extracts latent heat from boiler flue gas; usually in series with (sensible) heat exchanger. Industrial Boilers; high pressure > 85 psi 3 3 2 4 3 3 3.0
Hot water heating / boilers
B.1 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters 3 3 1 4 2 5 3.2B.2 Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable) 4 5 5 2 2 2 3.4B.3 Boost Heat - Thermal compression 4 4 2 3 3 3.0B.4 SuperPerm Burner for Water Heaters 2 2 1 3 4 1.8B.5 Combined Space and Water Heating Systems 3 3 4 3 3 3 3.1B.6 Steam Boiler with built-in energy recovery 2 3 3 3 3 2 2.6B.7 Residential Vapor Vacuum Heating 1 1 3 2 3 1 1.6
B.8
Oxygen Membrane Enhanced Burner - Polymer in the burner assembly that enriches oxygen constituency in the combustion air; higher permeance than other materials and allows for higher oxygen content which increases combustion efficiency
2 2 3 2 2 2 2.1
Kitchen
C.1 Grease Trap Htx - Extract heat from waste grease to pre-heat hot water 1 2 2 2 4 3 2.2
C.2
Kitchen ventilation improvement by using smoke sensors in exhaust stream and using information to control variable speed fans in the exhaust Demand control kitchen ventilation (DCKV) using sensor and optimization of fan use Demand control (DCKV) systems were developed that adjust
3 3 2 5 2 5 3.4
C.3 Combination steam and heat oven 4 4 4 4 3 3 3.7C.4 Commercial Pilotless Gas Range 2 2 3 2 3 2 2.2
C.5 Boilerless steamer (duplicate below) - Multistacked convention steamer for high volume cooking 3 3 4 4 3 3 3.2
Notes: 1. Scores robust across multiple weightings and corroborated with GTI and other industry experts.
54
Detailed scoring for all technologies (2 of 5)
Technical concept Code Application/project
Efficiency Benefit
GHG Benefit
Non-Energy / Emission Benefits
Barriers to Adoption
Economics
Accessible Market /
Scale
Overall Score
Rating (1 to 5; 1 = worst, 5 = best)
On-Site Generation
D.1 High Efficiency Thermoelectric Generators 1 2 3 2 3 2 2.0D.2 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Conventional Stirling 4 3 4 2 2 3 3.1D.3 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Resonance Stirling 3 3 4 2 2 1 2.4D.4 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Tim Kingston - GRI 4 3 4 3 2 3 3.2D.5 Zero Net Emission Home 5 5 5 2 1 1 3.3D.6 1 kWe residential-scale CHP system NS2 NS NS NS NS NS NSD.7 Solid oxide fuel cells 4 5 3 2 1 2 3.1D.8 Advanced direct carbon fuel cell 4 5 3 2 1 2 3.1
Burners
E.1 Demonstration high production fryers 3 3 4 4 4 3 3.3E.2 Conveyor broiler improvements 2 2 3 3 2 2 2.2
E.3 Enhanced radiant heat transfer with advanced coatings - High emissivity coating that reduce porosity of thermal burners 2 2 2 2 2 1 1.8
E.4 Unplugged ENERGY STAR Water Heater 2 2 4 2 4 2 2.4E.5 3D-printed industrial process burner 2 2 4 4 3 2 2.6
E.6 Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology and ultra-lowpower gas-water-heater control technology 4 4 4 2 4 5 4.0
Heat Pumps
F.1 Next Aire GEHP - performance evaluation 3 3 5 4 4 3 3.4F.2 Residential gas heat-pump water heater 5 5 2 3 4 4 4.1F.3 Application of Innovative Gas Heat-Pump Design to Space Conditioning 5 5 4 2 3 3 3.9F.4 Thermally-Driven Ground-Source Heat Pump 3 3 2 2 2 2 2.4
F.5 Thermally-Driven fluidic compressor; evaporation phase energy is captured and reused in the refrigeration process; achieve higher COPs in the cycle 3 3 2 2 2 1 2.2
F.6 Thermolift heat pump NS NS NS NS NS NS NSF.7 Electric Heat Pump + Gas Furnace 3 3 2 2 2 2 2.4F.8 Solar thermal heat pump 4 4 3 2 2 2 3.0
Notes: 1. Scores robust across multiple weightings and corroborated with GTI and other industry experts. 2. Not scored
55
Detailed scoring for all technologies (3 of 5)
Technical concept Code Application/project
Efficiency Benefit
GHG Benefit
Non-Energy / Emission Benefits
Barriers to Adoption
Economics
Accessible Market /
Scale
Overall Score
Rating (1 to 5; 1 = worst, 5 = best)
Changes to laundry processing
G.1 Next-Generation Advanced Gas Dryer DevelopmentJC to review UTD document 2 2 2 3 3 3 2.4
G.2 Commercial Dryer Modulating Gas Retrofit 2 2 3 3 3 2 2.3G.3 Dryer Moisture Sensor Retrofit 1 1 2 2 3 3 1.9G.4 Chemicals for Commercial Laundry (non-ozone) 3 4 5 2 2 5 3.7G.5 Advanced gas infra-red burner to compete with electric 2 2 2 3 2 1 1.9
G.6 Use ozone and cold water instead of detergent and hot water, saving energy and providing better wash characteristics 3 3 4 2 2 5 3.3
Solar Thermal / Heat Recovery
H.1 Heat wheels (air-to-air heat exchanger) - Use enthalpy in HVAC return air to pre-heat inlet air drawn from the atmosphere 2 2 3 2 2 2 2.1
H.2 Thermal Destratification Fans 2 2 2 3 2 2 2.1H.3 Air Solar Collector System 2 2 3 3 2 2 2.2H.4 Multifamily reflective heat barriers 1 2 3 2 1 2 1.8H.5 Flue Gas Condenser for heat recovery 2 2 3 3 2 2 2.2
H.6 HE Grain Dryer- Waste heat exchanger and recovery built into grain dryer 4 4 4 4 2 4 3.8
Improved Energy Management
I.1 A simplified method for determining duct leakage in weatherization audits 3 3 4 3 4 3 3.2
I.2 Outdoor-air-temperature-based ventilation control 2 2 3 2 3 3 2.4I.3 IoT based thermostats 3 3 5 4 4 4 3.7
I.4 Variable vent louvres - Wireless sensors communicate to smart thermostat; vary air flow to meet temperature set point 2 2 4 3 2 2 2.3
I.5 Wireless Steam Trap Monitor - Detects failed open or close steam trap and provides alarm at centralized control 3 3 4 3 1 1 2.4
Notes: 1. Scores robust across multiple weightings and corroborated with GTI and other industry experts.
56
Detailed scoring for all technologies (4 of 5)
Technical concept Code Application/project
Efficiency Benefit
GHG Benefit
Non-Energy / Emission Benefits
Barriers to Adoption
Economics
Accessible Market /
Scale
Overall Score
Rating (1 to 5; 1 = worst, 5 = best)
Improved Energy Management(cont’ed)
I.6 Predictive Analytics Energy Management System Overlay -Continuous based commissioning of existing BAS 3 4 4 2 2 2 2.9
I.7Multi-family Demand Controls for Central Domestic HW Systems -Automated controls learn behavior and temperature patterns and adjusts set points (potable)
3 3 3 4 3 3 3.1
I.8 Thermostatically controlled low flow shower head - restriction head adjusts automatically based on temperature and flow 2 2 3 3 5 5 3.2
I.9 Energy Management and Information System (EMIS) 3 3 5 2 2 3 3.0I.10 Innovative On-Demand WH Pump 2 2 4 3 2 3 2.6I.11 Commercial Pneumatic Thermostat 2 2 5 3 2 2 2.4I.12 Automated O2 Control Systems 2 2 3 5 4 2 2.7
Transportation
J.1 Natural gas internal combustion engine vehicles running on compressed natural gas 2 2 3 3 2 2 2.2
J.2 Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen) 4 4 3 3 2 2 3.1J.3 natural-gas-vehicle home-refueling appliances 1 1 5 3 2 3 2.2J.4 Free-Piston Linear-Motor Compressor 2 2 2 4 1.6J.5 CWI 6.7-Liter Medium-Duty Engine Development 2 3 3 4 4 3 3.0J.6 Improvements in High-Volume Dispensing Performance 1 1 5 2 3 4 2.4J.7 Free-Piston Linear-Motor Compressor Scale-Up 2 1 4 3 4 2 2.3J.8 CNG Fuel Station Safety, Performance, and Best Practices Audit Kit 2 2 4 4 NS2 NS NSJ.9 High-Volume, Off-Road CNG Applications Analysis 2 2 2 2 3 NS NS
J.10 13- to 15-Liter Heavy-Duty Natural Gas Engines for Class 8 Trucks 2 2 3 2 NS 2 NS
Notes: 1. Scores robust across multiple weightings and corroborated with GTI and other industry experts. 2. Not scored
57
Detailed scoring for all technologies (5 of 5)
Notes: 1. Scores robust across multiple weightings and corroborated with GTI and other industry experts. 2. Not scored
Technical concept Code Application/project
Efficiency Benefit
GHG Benefit
Non-Energy / Emission Benefits
Barriers to Adoption
Economics
Accessible Market /
Scale
Overall Score
Rating (1 to 5; 1 = worst, 5 = best)
Building Envelope
K.1 Insulation 3 3 3 5 3 5 3.7K.2 Advanced aerogel insulating material for window insulation NS2 NS NS NS NS NS NSK.3 Building materials 2 2 4 4 3 3 2.8K.4 Windows 1 2 4 5 1 4 2.7
MiscellaneousL.1 Commercial and industrial air barriers 2 2 3 2 2 4 2.6L.2 Natural gas cooling 2 2 3 1 2 1 1.8
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Additional references for prioritized technologies (1 of 4)
Technical concept Code Technology/Reference
Condensing Technologies
A.4Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH)• Center for Energy and Environment, Field Study of a moisture and heat transfer furnace retrofit device, 2015• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017
A.5 High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs• Technology Snapshot, Residential, Multi-Family, Through-the-Wall Condensing Furnace/AC Package, GTI, 2017
Hot water heating / boilers
B.1 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters• End-Use Solutions, Volume 4, Number 1, GTI, May 2009
B.2 Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable)• Solar Water Heaters, DOE
B.3 Boost Heat - Thermal compression• BoostHeat, http://www.boostheat.com/en/the-heat-boiler/
B.5 Combined Space and Water Heating Systems• Advanced Gas Water Heaters for High Performance DHW and Combi-System Applications, 2015 ACEEE Hot Water Forum
Kitchen
C.2
Kitchen ventilation improvement by using smoke sensors in exhaust stream and using information to control variable speed fansin the exhaust Demand control kitchen ventilation (DCKV) using sensor and optimization of fan use Demand control (DCKV) systems were developed that adjust• CKV Design Guides, Food Service Technology Center• Kitchen Ventilation Publications, Food Service Technology Center• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017
C.3
Combination steam and heat oven• Blodgett BLCT-6E Electric Mini Combi Over Test Report, Food Service Technology Center, 2017• Unox XAVC-10FS-GPR Gas Combination Over Test Report, Food Service Technology Center, 2017• Alto Shaam CTP20-20G Gas Combination Over Test Report, Food Service Technology Center, 2016
C.5Boilerless steamer (duplicate below) - Multistacked convention steamer for high volume cooking• Accutemp Evolution Gas Steamer Test Report, Food Service Technology Center, 2014• Market Forge Sirius II Gas Steamer Test Report, Food Service Technology Center, 2015
59
Additional references for prioritized technologies (2 of 4)
Technical concept Code Technology/Reference
On-Site Generation
D.2Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Conventional Stirling • Catalog of CHP Technologies, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Combined Heat and Power Partnership, 2017• Combined Heat & Power Production: Micro-CHP with Stirling Engine, Siemens, 2009
D.4 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW – GRI• Catalog of CHP Technologies, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Combined Heat and Power Partnership, 2017
D.5
Zero Net Emission Home• Zero Energy Ready Home, DOE• Zero Energy Project• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017
D.7 Solid oxide fuel cells• Osaka Gas, http://www.osakagas.co.jp/en/rd/fuelcell/sofc/technology/technology.html
Burners
E.1 Demonstration high production fryers• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017
E.6Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology and ultra-low power gas-water-heater control technology• Two Phase Thermo-Syphon Water Heater Technology Development, TPTS Development Company, 2018
Heat Pumps
F.1
Next Aire GEHP - performance evaluation. Natural-gas-engine driven heat pump in a heating-dominated climate• Gas Engine-Driven Heat Pump (GHP) Cold Climate Field Demonstration (EW-201515), DOD’s Environmental Research
Programs, 2015• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017
F.2Residential gas heat-pump water heater• Commercial Water Heating Using Gas Absorption Heat Pumps, ACEEE Hot Water Forum, 2016• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017
F.3Application of Innovative Gas Heat-Pump Design to Space Conditioning• Gas-Fired Absorption Heat Pump, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, DOE• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017
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Additional references for prioritized technologies (3 of 4)
Technical concept Code Technology/Reference
Changes to laundry processing
G.4
Chemicals for Commercial Laundry (non-ozone)• Commercial Laundry Facilities Introduction, Alliance for Water Efficiency• Energy Intensive Process in Professional Laundry Service: Up-to-date Approach, CHEMICAL ENGINEERING TRANSACTIONS,
Vol.35, 2013
G.6
Use ozone and cold water instead of detergent and hot water, saving energy and providing better wash characteristics• Nicor Gas Energy Efficiency Emerging Technology Program, 1005: Ozone Laundry, 2013• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017• Emerging Technology Program, 2014, GTI
Improved Energy Management
I.1 A simplified method for determining duct leakage in weatherization audits• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017
I.3
IoT based thermostats (ie Nest, Honeywell, etc.)• Nest Learning Thermostat Pilot Program Savings Assessment, Bonneville Power Administration & Franklin Public Utility
District, 2016• Evaluation of the 2013–2014 Programmable and Smart Thermostat Program, The Cadmus Group, 2015• Smart Thermostats, A CLEAResult White Paper, prepared for Commonwealth Edison, 2015• PG&E Smart Thermostat Study: First Year Findings, PG&E’s Emerging Technologies Program, 2016• Certified Products, Energy Star Smart Thermostats – Certified to Deliver Smart Saving, Energy Star• National Study of Potential of Smart Thermostats for Energy Efficiency and Demand Response, ACEEE, 2016
I.7
Multi-family Demand Controls for Central Domestic HW Systems - Automated controls learn behavior and temperature patterns and adjusts set points (potable)• Energy-Efficient Controls for Multifamily Domestic Hot Water, DOE, Building America Webinar, 2015• Central Domestic Hot Water Systems in Multi-Family Buildings, ACEEE 2010 Hot Water Forum• On-Demand Controls for Central Hot Water Systems White Paper, GTI, 2014
I.8Thermostatically controlled low flow shower head - restriction head adjusts automatically based on temperature and flow • Pilot Study for a Thermostatic Shower Restriction Valve, Evolve Technologies, 2015• Low Flow Showerheads and Aerators, PG&E, 2014
61
Additional references for prioritized technologies (4 of 4)
Technical concept Code Technology/Reference
Transportation J.2 Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen)• Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Natural Gas for Cars, DOE, 2015
Building Envelope K.1
Insulation• Energy Saver, Weatherization, DOE• Energy Savings at Home, Energy Star• Insulation GWT, GTI
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Emerging Gas Technologies for Lower GHG Emissions
More detailed examples of emerging gas technologies
Conference panel organized by Enovation Partners as part of search for relevant gas technologies
May 16, 2018
MODERATOR:BILL KEMP
Director, Enovation Partners
PHILIPPE DUJARDIN
Chief Financial Officer, BoostHEAT
MICH HEINCEO, Electrochaea
PETER OLLIKAINEN
Head of Business Development, Finno
Energy
NADÈGE LECLERCQ
Director, Market Development,
Europe, Middle East and Africa, Westport
Fuel Systems
[Insert link to AGA Web site with full conference panel presentations]