GHG emission reduction pathways - aga.org · • Gas technologies can enhance energy system...

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Phase 1: Gas Technology Pathway Identification Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pathways May 2018 enovationpartners.com

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Page 1: GHG emission reduction pathways - aga.org · • Gas technologies can enhance energy system reliability (system-wide and as a local backup) and efficiency, while reducing the need

Phase 1: Gas Technology Pathway Identification

Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pathways

May 2018

enovationpartners.com

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Content

Executive Summary

Project Scope and Approach

Gas Technologies

End Use Pathways

Vignettes

Appendix

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1. Gas Technology Pathway

Identification

• Identify and assess emerging natural gas end-use technologies that could contribute materially to GHG reductions

• Assemble candidate gas technologies into end-use pathways for meeting current gas end use needs at lower GHG levels

• Analyze customer benefits

• Analyze how penetration of new gas end-use technologies could change costs and emissions at the system and national levels

• Compare costs of GHG reductions with other pathways

• Understand cumulative GHG impact of implementing gas pathways today vs. waiting for electrification

3. Policy Implications and

Outreach(optional)

• Develop policy advocacy materials

• Analyze potential impacts at state level

Project scope3/5 – 5/2010 weeks TBD TBD

2. Comparative Pathway Performance

(optional)

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25-40%GHG reduction potential on a customer basis by integration of these technologies and other efficiency practices

Emerging gas technologies can make substantial and cost-effective contributions to GHG reduction goals

>100Innovative gas technologies for Residential / Small Commercial identified in our global search

60-80%+GHG reduction sufficient to meet COP 21 goals with inclusion of future CHP technologies and Renewable Natural Gas

Policy goals for sustainable energy can be achieved at significantly lower consumer cost through integrating innovative gas solutions into long-term resource planning, while offering customers more choice and improved affordability, reliability and comfort

• Gas technologies can enhance energy system reliability (system-wide and as a local backup) and efficiency, while reducing the need for new electric generation and T&D infrastructure and preserving the future value of gas infrastructure. They deserve comparable policy support

• Electric technologies will also improve, and are supported by incentives, but their GHG impacts depend on the generation fuel mix. In some regions electrification will increase GHG emissions through the 2030s

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End-use pathways

Our objective was to identify innovative gas technologies and translate their impact into customer value and environmental benefits

Note: Some technologies have multiple end uses and can be used in the residential and commercial sectors. These technologies are represented in all applicable sections

Innovation area1 Condensing Technology

2 Hot water heating / boilers

3 Kitchen4 On-Site Generation5 Burners6 Heat Pumps

7 Changes to laundry processing

8 Solar Thermal / Heat Recovery

9 Improved Energy Management

10 Transportation11 Building Envelope12 Miscellaneous

1Technologies1.

Con

dens

ing

Tech

nolo

gyIntegrated contact condensing water heaterIn-situ flue burner - applying premix burners to storage GWHTransport Membrane Humidifier (TMH)High efficiency condensing condo packsResidential condensing water heaterCondensing wall furnaceRooftop units - heating and coolingCondensing economizer

2. B

oile

rs

Tankless water heaterSolar-assisted heatingThermal compression gas heat pumpCombined space and water heating systems

3. K

itche

n

Combination steam and heat ovenBoilerless steamerSmoke sensors in exhaust system to control ventilation

2 3Customer value

Affordability

Sustainability

Resilience

Comfort

4

12Innovation areas

>100Technologies

7End use-pathways

26Prioritized

technologies

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Natural Gas End-Uses

Global innovation is accelerating in traditional applications as well as emerging applications such as resilience and transportation. RNG will decarbonize gas more fundamentally.

Notes: Transportation technologies were not the main focus of the project; Renewable Natural Gas technologies were outside of the project scope

Space Heating & Cooling

Cooking

Laundry

Water Heating

72Cogeneration/ Resilience

Transportation

Renewable Natural Gas

Energy Management &

Building Efficiency

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Extensive global research, interviews, workshops and conference sessions highlighted over 100 significant emerging gas technologies

Focus of the studyOutside of the main focus of the study

Cooking

1• Gas oven and

cooktop

Transportation

5• Fuel Cell

Electric Vehicle• Home-refueling

appliances

Water Heating

17• Tankless water

heater• Gas heat-pump

water heater

Cogeneration/ Resilience

5• Micro CHP • Solid oxide fuel

cells

Building Energy Management

12• Envelope• IoT-based energy

mgmt.

Heating &Cooling

18• Condensing furnace• Heat pumps• Solar thermal/

Heat recoveryLaundry

3• Advanced gas

dryer• Ozone washing Cu

stom

er V

alue

, GH

G Im

pact

s

End Uses and Representative Technologies

Heating &Cooling

13• Heat pumps• Condensing

Condo Packs

Cooking

6• High production

fryer• Boilerless

steamer

Laundry

5• Ozone washing• Advanced gas

infra-red burner

Water Heating

3• Condensing

economizer• Grease Trap

heat exchange

Building Energy Management

10• Demand controls

for HW system

Cogeneration/ Resilience

5• Micro CHP • Solid oxide fuel

cells

Commercial

Transportation

9• Commercial CNGVs• Free-piston linear-

motor compressor

Tech

nolo

gy In

nova

tion

Area

s

Residential

Notes: Total number of technologies exceeds 100 due to applicability to both sectors and multiple end uses

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• IoT thermostats (i.e. Nest, Honeywell)

• Building envelope (insulation, windows, building materials)

• Demand controls for HW systems • Thermostatically controlled low flow

shower head

Innovative technologies were assessed, prioritized and aligned with relevant end use pathways

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Note: All technologies were independently evaluated and scored by several SMEs; evaluation criteria primarily considered GHG impact and time to market; aggregated scores were consistent among experts and robust against multiple weightings; * designates technology with multiple end-uses, but listed only once

• Tankless water heater -Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters

• Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable)

• Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology

• Combined Space and Water Heating Systems*

• Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen)• Commercial CNG vehicles

• Ozone and cold water washing

• High production fryers• Multistacked boilerless steamer for

high volume cooking• Combination steam and heat oven

• Low-cost residential gas absorption heat pump (GAHP) combination

• Condensing furnace• Transport Membrane Humidifier

(TMH)

• Solid oxide fuel cells*• Micro CHP – gas recip, sterling

engine*

High priority technologies by major end use

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Combining emerging end-use technologies in the residential sector creates multiple pathways for customers to reduce GHG emissions

Water heating,up to 55%

• Absorption heat pump

Laundry, 55%• Gas dryer• Ozone washing • Gas stove

• Gas oven

Space Cooling, up to 45%Space Heating, up to 40%• Gas heat pump

72

Cooking, minimal change

Building Efficiency, 10-45%• IoT based thermostat• Building Envelope

Notes: GHG reduction potential is estimated based on efficiency improvements over stock average gas equipment efficiency and building envelope in 2016

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Combining emerging end-use technologies in the commercial sector creates multiple pathways for customers to reduce GHG emissions

Notes: GHG reduction potential is estimated based on efficiency improvements over stock average gas equipment efficiency and building envelope in 2016

Transportation, up to 20%• Commercial compressed natural

gas vehicles

Cooking, up to 40%• High efficiency

fryer

Energy Management & Building Efficiency, 10-45%• Building Envelope• IOT Thermostat

Water heating, up to 15%• Condensing storage

Electric Generation, Space Heating, up to 50%• CHP, Gas Recip

Engine

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Specific illustrative vignettes of customers achieving this level of reduction today through innovative gas technologies were developed, to help communicate the benefits:

Currently available efficient gas technologies can more affordably achieve targeted GHG reduction goals through 2030s

25-40%GHG reduction potential on a customer basis by implementing these technologies and other related efficiency practices

Notes:* Examples follow

• Zero Net Energy (ZNE) home in Chicago, IL*• Low income family renting in Hartford, CT*• Home in Queens, NY*• Fixed income retiree in The Villages, FL• Residential developer/builder in MA

• Restaurant owner in OH• Public bus system in CA• Family in harsh winter climate of St Louis, MO*• Single family home in MI

Gas infrastructure is already in place. No need to wait for build-out of more expensive all-electric pathways.

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Vignette: Natural gas improves resilience and comfort of a Midwestern Zero Net Energy home, reducing CO2 at a lower cost

Technologies• Heating: Hydronic radiant system with gas

absorption heat pump• Cooling: Electric heat pump with exterior

condenser and interior evaporator• Water heating: Gas absorption heat pump• Laundry: Standard electric washer and dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard

electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave• Other: Electric battery, building envelope,

programmable thermostat

Profile• Young couple near Chicago, IL• Single family residential

home, 2,200 sq ft• Median income• Most concerned about

sustainability and affordability, to a lesser degree about comfort and resilience

Energy sources• Utility delivered

natural gas• Utility delivered

electricity • Solar roof PV *• Li-ion battery *

Nick Rumas and Shin-ae Kang are building a ZNE home near Chicago, IL. Sustainability is very important to them, as is affordability. Natural gas plays an important part in both of these –efficiently heating, cooking, drying, as well as saving them money in construction and monthly bills.

* Electric bill credits reflect current utility tariffs for customers with PV

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Vignette: Efficient natural gas technologies are a lower cost and faster way for property owners to comply with regional climate policies, while also significantly decreasing energy bills for renters in Hartford, CT

Profile• Family of 4 near Hartford, CT• Rented 1,400 sq ft townhome• Lower income, LIHEAP eligible• Most concerned about affordability, and also with comfort

and safety with kids in the house

Technologies• Heating: Natural gas furnace• Cooling: Electric AC• Water heating: High efficiency gas boiler• Laundry: Standard electric washer and gas dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric

refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave• Other: Building envelope, efficient lighting, low flow

shower heads, programmable thermostat

Paul is a single parent with three children who chose to rent a 1,400 sq ft townhome near Hartford, CT because the landlord had just replaced this older unit’s aging, high maintenance appliances with new, more efficient gas appliances. First cost was very important to the landlord, so he chose the least expensive option available, which was modern gas appliances with energy efficiency incentives from the local gas utility. Paul’s family was able to enjoy the comfort of a warm and efficient home with lower utility bills – and more cash for the holidays.

Notes: Technology choices represent typical decisions made by a landlord of a rental property, homeowners may make different choices

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Vignette: Gas innovation and efficiency is the only practical path for an NYC home to make a near term impact on state 80x50 goals

Gas Losses

Electric LossesGas LossesGas GenerationMarginal Unit

(NYC)

Emissions:10oF: 12.2 lb CO220oF: 6.8 lb CO230oF: 4.1 lb CO2

Emissions:10oF: 7.2 lb CO2 20oF: 6.0 lb CO230oF: 4.8 lb CO2

Electric System Gas Need:10oF: 104,200 Btu20oF: 57,900 Btu30oF: 34,700 Btu

Gas Need:10oF: 61,200 Btu20oF: 51,000 Btu30oF: 40,800 Btu

Electrification

Direct Gas Use(not including future

innovation)

City

Gat

e

Note: Developed in collaboration with Con Edison

Efficient residential gas heating costs NYC customers much less, and below ~25oF has lower CO2 emissions than electric under today’s marginal generation mix

Profile• 2,000 Ft2 single family home, NYC Metro area• Home heated to 70oF• Outside air temperature cases: 10oF to 30oF

The owners of single family home in Queens, NY are concerned about meeting their city’s 80 x 50 goals. They would like to know what role they can play in GHG emission reduction. While they understand that cutting emissions may raise their energy costs, they also want to make sure those expenditures are worthwhile. How would their GHG emissions and costs for space heating change if they switched to an electric heat pump, using current technologies?

70oFASHP vs.

80% Efficient Gas Boiler

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Vignette: Natural gas innovation reduces CO2 and also delivers resilience and affordability to a family in Missouri

Profile• 3,200 sq ft home in eastern Missouri• Family of 4• Most concerned about resilience and affordability

Technologies• Heating: Condensing gas furnace• Cooling: Electric heat pump • Water heating: Gas fired tankless water heater• Laundry: Standard electric washer and dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard

electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave• Other: Building envelope, programmable thermostat

The Johnson family of St Louis, MO, has lived through several ice storms, and chose their current house due to its gas appliances. Their previous home was all electric, and they suffered through the multi-day outages that typically follow ice storms. They like the comfort of their gas furnace, and are interested in learning more about money-saving advanced gas solutions.

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Specific illustrative vignettes of customers achieving this level of reduction in the future through innovative gas technologies were developed, to help communicate the benefits:

• Large single family home in Oregon*

• Coastal house in NJ

• Large residence near Houston, TX

More advanced but proven and scalable gas technologies can achieve COP21 goals for GHG reductions, while also saving money and improving resilience and comfort

60-80%+GHG reduction – sufficient to meet COP21 goals –with inclusion of future CHP and Renewable Gas technologies

Notes:* Example follows

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Vignette: In the future, Renewable Natural Gas is a more affordable and effective way to improve sustainability in an Oregon home

Technologies• Heating: Retrofitted gas furnace (Transport Membrane Humidifier)• Cooling: Electric heat pump• Water heating: Gas tankless water heater• Laundry: Standard electric washer and gas dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric refrigerator,

dishwasher and microwave• Other: Building envelope, IoT based thermostat, Energy management

and information system; outdoor gas heating, gas lighting, EV

Notes: Residential electric rates assume 1% annual escalation per EIA

Profile• 3,400 sq ft home in Portland, OR• Couple in their 50s, no kids• Most concerned about

demonstrating sustainability commitment while enjoying the full potential of technology

Energy sources• Utility delivered

renewable gas• Utility delivered

electricity • Solar roof PV (with net

metering)• Li-ion battery

In 2033, Liliana and Jay have a home outside Portland that is a showplace of new technology, but only a few years ahead in their progressive neighborhood. They showcase the applications of renewable gas – lighting, outdoor heating, indoor, water heating, along with electric – EVs, solar roof, LED lighting, battery - and whole home controls and efficiency that minimizes use of energy wherever possible

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Findings and recommendations• An extensive global search for innovative natural gas end-use technologies in residential and small commercial

sectors surfaced roughly 100 unique potential technologies for all major end-uses available now or in the near term. Based on GHG emission reduction impacts and maturity level, about a third of the technologies were prioritized and further assessed.

• The identified high priority technologies offer a significant efficiency improvement potential (some more than 50%), which can greatly help to achieve GHG emission reduction goals nationwide.

• Pathways for GHG reduction were defined for the major residential and commercial gas end uses. Utilizing the combinations of technologies on these pathways could result in as much as 25-40% GHG emission reduction per customer, when compared to the current installed based of natural gas equipment.

• GHG reductions per customer of over 80% (enough to meet COP21 goals) could be achieved with the future addition of CHP and renewable gas technologies.

• Customer vignette examples were developed to help communicate how a wide variety of customers can use these gas technologies in their everyday life, and experience the benefits of improved affordability, reliability, sustainability and comfort.

• The illustrative customer cases quantified in the vignettes demonstrate that the costs of meeting energy needs while complying with GHG reduction goals will be lower at the customer level if gas is encouraged to fulfill its potential contribution.

• Further analytical work is required to assess the impact of penetration of emerging gas end-use technologies on costs and emissions at the utility system and national levels, and compare key metrics for deep decarbonization pathways with and without new gas technologies

• The gas industry should expand its engagement with regulatory and governmental policy makers, to help build a sound factual basis for long-term GHG reduction strategies that meet GHG goals most cost-effectively

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Content

Executive Summary

Project Scope and Approach

Gas Technologies

End Use Pathways

Vignettes

Appendix

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1. Gas Technology Pathway

Identification

• Identify and assess emerging natural gas end-use technologies that could contribute materially to GHG reductions

• Assemble candidate gas technologies into end-use pathways for meeting current gas end use needs at lower GHG levels

• Analyze customer benefits

• Analyze how penetration of new gas end-use technologies could change costs and emissions at the system and national levels

• Compare costs of GHG reductions with other pathways

• Understand cumulative GHG impact of implementing gas pathways today vs. waiting for electrification

3. Policy Implications and

Outreach(optional)

• Develop policy advocacy materials

• Analyze potential impacts at state level

Project scope3/5 – 5/2010 weeks TBD TBD

2. Comparative Pathway Performance

(optional)

Page 21: GHG emission reduction pathways - aga.org · • Gas technologies can enhance energy system reliability (system-wide and as a local backup) and efficiency, while reducing the need

201. Partial list of key deliverables

• Base scenario definition• Assumptions on customer-

level changes in gas capital and operating costs for major gas end uses

• Estimated changes in gas capital and operating costs at system and national levels

• Comparison of key metrics for deep decarbonization pathways with and without new gas technologies

• Sizing of competitiveness gaps

• Recommendations on effective policy initiatives

• CSR tools for quantifying gas technology social benefits

• State and federal communications materials

• State-level assessment of economics of new gas technologies, from customer perspective

• Draft and final educational materials for participating stakeholders

Key deliverables 1

• Long list of emerging gas technologies, with source materials

• Technical and economic viability of higher priority technologies

• Defined end use gas pathways of high priority technologies

• Estimates of GHG emissions reduction potential across gas pathways at customer level

• First drafts of customer vignettes and core advocacy documents

• Steering Committee and Board presentations

1. Gas Technology Pathway Identification

3. Policy Implications

and Outreach (optional)

2. Comparative Pathway

Performance(optional)

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The focus of our research was on all major end uses for gas in residential sector…

Comments

Prim

ary

End

Use

sRe

mai

ning

End

Use

s

Cooking

Water Heating

Space Heating

1,802

Clothes WashersFreezers

DishwashersFurnace Fans

ComputersClothes Dryers

TelevisionsRefrigeration

LightingSpace Cooling

Other Uses 1,694

901455

345

108242

74

26

94

282

104

Gas Electric Other

Residential Energy End-use , 20161

Trillion Btu

Notes:1. EIA, AEO 2018. Natural gas consumption is only broken out by space heating, cooking, water heating, clothes drying, and space cooling. All other end uses of natural gas are

represented in “Other Uses”

4,051

347

• EIA’s 2016 estimate of actual residential consumption by end-use shows space heating, water heating, cooking and other uses accounted for almost all direct gas consumption

• GHG reduction pathways to be constructed will reflect:- Retaining the customer share

of gas in its primary end uses through new technologies (e.g., improved space heating, water heating, cooking)

- Displacing central station electric power production by gas-fired onsite production (CHP and mCHP)

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…As well as small commercial sector

Comments

Prim

ary

End

Use

sRe

mai

ning

End

Use

s

Cooking

Water Heating

Space Heating

Office equipment

Computers and…

Lighting

Ventilation

Space Cooling

Refrigeration

Other Uses

Gas Electric Other

1,925

402

609

353334

640

498

518

588

3,039

Commercial Energy End-use, 20161

Trillion Btu

Notes:1. EIA, AEO 2018. Natural gas consumption is only broken out by space heating, cooking, water heating, and space cooling. All other end uses of natural gas are represented in

“Other Uses”

• EIA’s 2016 estimate of actual commercial consumption by end-use shows space heating, water heating, cooking and other uses (including drying) accounted for almost all direct gas consumption

• GHG reduction pathways to be constructed will reflect:- Retaining the customer share

of gas in its primary end uses through new technologies

- Increasing customer share for gas in in some end uses (e.g., cooling)

- Displacing central station electric power production by gas-fired onsite production (CHP and mCHP)

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Natural Gas End-Uses

We found that global innovation is accelerating in traditional applications as well as emerging applications such as resilience and transportation. RNG will decarbonize gas more fundamentally.

Notes: Transportation technologies were not the main focus of the project; Renewable Natural Gas technologies were outside of the project scope

Space Heating & Cooling

Cooking

Laundry

Water Heating

72Cogeneration/ Resilience

Transportation

Renewable Natural Gas

Energy Management &

Building Efficiency

Page 25: GHG emission reduction pathways - aga.org · • Gas technologies can enhance energy system reliability (system-wide and as a local backup) and efficiency, while reducing the need

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End-use pathways

Our objective was to identify innovative gas technologies and translate their impact into customer value and environmental benefits

Note: Some technologies have multiple end uses and can be used in the residential and commercial sectors. These technologies are represented in all applicable sections

Innovation area1 Condensing Technology

2 Hot water heating / boilers

3 Kitchen4 On-Site Generation5 Burners6 Heat Pumps

7 Changes to laundry processing

8 Solar Thermal / Heat Recovery

9 Improved Energy Management

10 Transportation11 Building Envelope12 Miscellaneous

1Technologies1.

Con

dens

ing

Tech

nolo

gyIntegrated contact condensing water heaterIn-situ flue burner - applying premix burners to storage GWHTransport Membrane Humidifier (TMH)High efficiency condensing condo packsResidential condensing water heaterCondensing wall furnaceRooftop units - heating and coolingCondensing economizer

2. B

oile

rs

Tankless water heaterSolar-assisted heatingThermal compression gas heat pumpCombined space and water heating systems

3. K

itche

n

Combination steam and heat ovenBoilerless steamerSmoke sensors in exhaust system to control ventilation

2 3Customer value

Affordability

Sustainability

Resilience

Comfort

4

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Wide range of sources from around the globe helped identify gas technologies that contribute to GHG reduction

Data Sources (partial list) List of Technologies (examples)

• Condensing heat exchangers• Condensing economizer• Solar-assisted heating• Tankless water heater• High efficiency thermoelectric generators• Enhanced radiant heat transfer• Burner technology advancements (multiple)• 3D printing for industrial burner design/production• Advanced Gas Dryer Development• Heat wheels for residential (air-to-air heat exchanger)• Kitchen demand control ventilation • Gas infrared drying• Ozone laundry• Liquid desiccant air conditioning/humidity control• Gas Engine Heat Pump• Gas fuel cell (multiple technologies)• CHP : > 50kW and micro CHP (multiple technologies)• Intelligent Energy Management (multiple)• Hybrid homes (gas + electric)• Zero Net Emission Home• …

• Desk Research– ARPA-E– Canada Natural Gas Innovation Fund– Canadian Gas Association– Center for Climate and Energy Solutions– Gas Technology Institute (GTI) reports and Utilization

Technology Department– Fraunhofer Institute– Korea Gas– Tokyo Gas– US DOE: NETL, NREL

• Personal communications– Engie– European Research Institute for Gas & Technology

Innovation (ERIG)– Gas and Heat Institute (GWI - Germany)– Gas Union Fenosa– GTI End-Use Department section leaders– Orsted– Osaka Gas– Other members of IGU Utilization Committee– UC Irvine– Westport Innovations– West River Capital

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Content

Executive Summary

Project Scope and Approach

Gas Technologies

End Use Pathways

Vignettes

Appendix

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We conducted extensive research, interviews and a workshop to identify over 100 unique gas technologies across 12 categories

1. Some technologies have multiple end uses and can be used in both the residential and commercial sectors. These technologies are represented in more than one row

Technical concept End-Use Sector # of Technologies Reviewed1

Condensing Technology

Space cooling Commercial 2

Space heatingResidential 1Commercial 3

Industrial 1

Water heatingResidential 4Commercial 1

Industrial 1Total >> 13

Hot water heating / boilers

Space heating Residential 3Water heating Residential 7

Total >> 10

Kitchen

Cooking Residential 1Cooking Commercial 4

Water heating Commercial 1Total >> 6

On-Site Generation

Space cooling Residential 7Commercial 3

Space heating Residential 7Commercial 3

Water heating Residential 1Total >> 21

Burners

Cooking Commercial 2Laundry Industrial 1

Other Industrial 1Water heating Residential 2

Total >> 6

Heat Pumps

Space cooling Residential 5Commercial 5

Space heating Residential 6Commercial 5

Water heating Residential 2Total >> 23

Changes to laundry processing

LaundryResidential 3Commercial 4

Industrial 1Total >> 8

Technical concept End-Use Sector # of Technologies Reviewed1

Solar Thermal / Heat Recovery

Space cooling Residential 1Commercial 1

Space heating Residential 3Commercial 1

Water heating Residential 1Other Agriculture 1

Total >> 8

Improved Energy Management

Space coolingResidential 5Commercial 3

Industrial 1

Space heatingResidential 5Commercial 3

Industrial 1Water heating Residential 3

Other Industrial 2Total >> 23

Transportation Transportation Transportation 10Total >> 10

Building Envelope

Space cooling Residential 3Commercial 3

Space heating Residential 3Commercial 3

Total >> 12

MiscellaneousSpace cooling Residential 1

Commercial 1Space heating Commercial 1

Total >> 3

Totals

Cooking 7Laundry 9

Other 4Space cooling 41Space heating 49Transportation 10Water heating 23

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Long list of end-use gas technologies (1 of 3)Technical Concept Code Application/Project End-Use Sector

Condensing Technology

A.1 Rooftop units - heating and cooling Space heating/cooling C

A.2 Integrated Contact Condensing Water Heater Water heating R

A.3 In-Situ Flue Burner - applying premix burners to storage GWH Water heating R

A.4 Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) - Retrofit Device for High-Efficiency Residential Heating and Humidification Space heating R

A.5 High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs Space heating/coolingWater heating C

A.6 Residential Condensing Water Heater Water heating R

A.7 Condensing Wall Furnace Water heating R

A.8 Condensing economizer - Extracts latent heat from boiler flue gas; usually in series with (sensible) heat exchanger. Industrial Boilers; high pressure > 85 psi Space and water heating C/I

Hot Water Heating / Boilers

B.1 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters Water heating R

B.2 Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable) Water heating R

B.3 Thermal compression gas heat pump Space heating R

B.4 SuperPerm Burner for Water Heaters Water heating R

B.5 Combined Space and Water Heating Systems Space and water heating R

B.6 Steam Boiler with built-in energy recovery Space and water heating R

B.7 Residential Vapor Vacuum Heating Water heating R

B.8 Oxygen Membrane Enhanced Burner - Polymer in the burner assembly that enriches oxygen constituency in the combustion air; higherpermanence than other materials and allows for higher oxygen content which increases combustion efficiency Water heating R

Kitchen

C.1 Grease Trap Htx - Extract heat from waste grease to pre-heat hot water Water heating C

C.2Kitchen ventilation improvement by using smoke sensors in exhaust stream and using information to control variable speed fans in the exhaust Demand control kitchen ventilation (DCKV) using sensor and optimization of fan use Demand control (DCKV) systems were developed that adjust

Cooking C

C.3 Combination steam and heat oven Cooking R/C

C.4 Commercial Pilotless Gas Range Cooking C

C.5 Boilerless steamer (duplicate below) – Multi-stacked convention steamer for high volume cooking Cooking C

On-Site Generation

D.1 High Efficiency Thermoelectric Generators Water heating R

D.2 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Conventional Stirling Space heating/cooling R

D.3 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Resonance Stirling Space heating/cooling R

D.4 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW – GRI micro-turbine Space heating/cooling R/C

D.5 Zero Net Emission Home Space heating/cooling R

D.6 1 kwe residential-scale CHP system Space heating/cooling R

D.7 Solid oxide fuel cells Space heating/cooling R/C

Sources: GTI, UTD, NREL, EP expertise, interviews with industry experts and others

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Long list of end-use gas technologies (2 of 3)

Technical Concept Code Application/Project End-Use Sector

Burners

E.1 Demonstration high production fryers Cooking C

E.2 Conveyor Broiler improvements – Redesign of existing combustion system Cooking C

E.3 Enhanced radiant heat transfer with advanced coatings – High emissivity coating that reduces porosity of thermal burners Laundry I

E.4 Unplugged ENERGY STAR Water Heater Water heating R

E.5 3D-printed industrial process burner Other I

E.6 Unplugged power burners – Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology and ultra-low power gas water-heater control technology Water heating R

Heat Pumps

F.1 Next Aire GEHP – performance evaluation. Natural-gas-engine driven heat pump in a heating-dominated climate Space heating / cooling R/C

F.2 Residential gas heat-pump water heater Water heating R

F.3 Application of innovative gas heat-pump design to space conditioning Space heating / cooling R/C

F.4 Thermally-driven ground-source heat pump Space heating / cooling R/C

F.5 Thermally-driven fluidic compressor; evaporation phase energy is captured and reused in the refrigeration process; achieve higher COPs in the cycle Space heating / cooling C

F.6 Thermolift heat pump – cold-climate, natural gas air-conditioner and heat pump technology Space heating / cooling R/C

F.7 Electric heat pump + gas furnace Space heating / cooling R

F.8 Solar thermal heat pump Space and water heating R

Changes to Laundry Processing

G.1 Next generation advanced gas dryer development – high efficiency dryer technology options including, but not limited to, heat recovery, indirect firing, direct venting, and advanced burners. Laundry R

G.2 Commercial dryer modulating gas retrofit Laundry C

G.3 Dryer moisture sensor retrofit Laundry R

G.4 Chemicals for commercial laundry (non-ozone) Laundry C

G.5 Advanced gas infra-red burner to compete with electric Laundry C/I

G.6 Use ozone and cold water instead of detergent and hot water, saving energy and providing better wash characteristics Laundry R/C

Solar Thermal/ Heat Recovery

H.1 Heat wheels (air-to-air heat exchanger) – Use enthalpy in HVAC return air to pre-heat inlet air drawn from the atmosphere Apceheating R

H.2 Thermal destratification fans – recycle the air in your HVAC system Space heating/cooling C/I

H.3 Air solar collector system – air passing through the collector picks up heat from the absorber plate Space heating R

H.4 Multifamily reflective heat barriers – reduce hat gain and cooling costs Space heating/cooling R

H.5 Flue gas condenser for heat recovery Water heating R

H.6 HE grain dryer – waste heat exchanger and recovery built into grain dryer Other A

Sources: GTI, UTD, NREL, EP expertise, interviews with industry experts and others

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Long list of end-use gas technologies (3 of 3)

Technical Concept Code Application/Project End-Use Sector

Improved Energy Management

I.1 Variable Vent Louvres – Wireless sensors communicate to smart thermostat; vary air flow to meet temperature set point Space heating / cooling R

I.2 Outdoor-air-temperature-based ventilation control Space heating / cooling R

I.3 IoT based thermostats (ie Nest, Honeywell, etc.) Space heating / cooling R

I.4 Variable vent louvres - Wireless sensors communicate to smart thermostat; vary air flow to meet temperature set point Space heating / cooling R

I.5 Wireless Steam Trap Monitor – Detects failed open or close steam trap and provides alarm at centralized control Other C/I

I.6 Predictive Analytics Energy Management System Overlay – Continuous based commissioning of existing BAS Space heating / cooling C/I

I.7 Multi-family Demand Controls for Central Domestic HW Systems – Automated controls learn behavior and temperature patterns and adjusts set point (potable) Water heating R

I.8 Thermostatically Controlled Low Flow Shower Head – Restriction head adjusts automatically based on temperature and flow Water heating R

I.9 Energy Management and Information System (EMIS) Space heating / cooling R/C

I.10 Innovative On-Demand WH Pump Water heating R

I.11 Commercial Pneumatic Thermostat Space heating / cooling C

I.12 Automated O2 Control Systems Other I

Transportation

J.1 Natural Gas Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles Running on Compressed Natural Gas Transportation T

J.2 Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (Hydrogen) Transportation T

J.3 Natural-gas Vehicle Home-refueling Appliances Transportation T

J.4 Free-piston Linear-motor Compressor Transportation T

J.5 CWI 6.7-Liter Medium-duty Engine Development Transportation T

J.6 Improvements in High-volume Dispensing Performance Transportation T

J.7 Free-piston Linear-motor Compressor Scale-up Transportation T

J.8 CNG Fuel Station Safety, Performance, and Best Practices Audit Kit Transportation T

J.9 High-Volume, Off-Road CNG Applications Analysis Transportation T

J.10 13- to 15-Liter Heavy-Duty Natural Gas Engines for Class 8 Trucks Transportation T

Building Envelope

K.1 Insulation Space heating / cooling R/C

K.2 Advanced Aerogel Insulating Material for Window Insulation Space heating / cooling R/C

K.3 Building Materials Space heating / cooling R/C

K.4 Windows Space heating / cooling R/C

Miscellaneous L.1 Commercial and Industrial Air Barriers Space heating / cooling C/I

L.2 Natural Gas Cooling Space cooling R

Sources: GTI, UTD, NREL, EP expertise, interviews with industry experts and others

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All technologies were first assessed against level of impact and time to market, as well as several other criteria

CommentsArea Assessment criteria

Energy and GHG Impacts

Impact on energy consumption (kWh/MMBtu)Impact on electric peak (kW) or gas peak (MMCFD)

Overall efficiency improvement and GHG emissions reduction

Accessible market size

Technology Maturity

Commercial availability < 5 yearsCommercial availability 5 to 10 yearsCommercial availability 10 to 15 years

Non-energy benefits

Effective use of waste heatOther factors – e.g., comfort; indoor air quality

EconomicsOverall economicsSusceptible to use of renewable gasHighly dependent on turnover of current stock

Regulatory/ Commercial Barriers

Technical barriers – relies on high GHG impact materialsPractical barriers – space to installSafetyBuilding codesRegulator-approved rebatesLDC ability to market

ScaleStandardization of configurationEase of scaling up to produce modules at scale

• Assessment framework helped prioritize gas technologies based on relative level of impact and market readiness

• Additional research gathered data to serve as foundation for: – Estimating energy savings and

emissions impact at technology level– Incorporating into relevant end use

pathways – Estimating energy savings and

emissions impact at customer and pathway levels

– Mapping economics and barriers into expected market penetration rates

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High potential technologies were prioritized for further analysis

Notes: Technologies were scored on 5-point scale (5=best) across multiple criteria by Enovation, GTI, and other industry experts. Prioritization results were robust across different experts and alternative weighting schemes.

Technical concept Application/project Overall

ScoreCondensing Technology

A.4 Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) - Retrofit Device for High-Efficiency Residential Heating and Humidification 3.8A.5 High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs 3.2

Hot water heating / boilers

B.1 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters 3.2B.2 Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable) 3.4B.3 Thermal compression gas heat pump 3.2B.5 Combined Space and Water Heating Systems 3.1

KitchenC.2 Kitchen ventilation improvement by using smoke sensors in exhaust stream and using information to control variable speed fans in the exhaust

Demand control kitchen ventilation (DCKV) using sensor and optimization of fan use Demand control (DCKV) systems were developed that adjust 3.4

C.3 Combination steam and heat oven 3.7C.5 Boilerless steamer – Multi-stacked convention steamer for high volume cooking 3.2

On-Site Generation

D.2 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Conventional Stirling 3.1D.4 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - GRI 3.2D.5 Zero Net Emission Home 3.3D.7 Solid oxide fuel cells 3.1

BurnersE.1 Demonstration high production fryers 3.3E.6 Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology and ultra-low power gas-water-heater control 4.0

Heat PumpsF.1 Next Aire GEHP - performance evaluation. Natural-gas-engine driven heat pump in a heating-dominated climate 3.4

F.2 Residential gas heat-pump water heater 4.1F.3 Application of Innovative Gas Heat-Pump Design to Space Conditioning 3.9

Changes to laundry processing

G.4 Chemicals for Commercial Laundry (non-ozone) 3.7

G.6 Use ozone and cold water instead of detergent and hot water, saving energy and providing better wash characteristics 3.3

Improved Energy Management

I.1 A simplified method for determining duct leakage in weatherization audits 3.2I.3 IoT based thermostats (e.g. Nest, Honeywell) 3.7

I.7 Multi-family Demand Controls for Central Domestic HW Systems - Automated controls learn behavior and temperature patterns and adjusts set points (potable) 3.1

I.8 Thermostatically controlled low flow shower head - restriction head adjusts automatically based on temperature and flow 3.2Transportation J.2 Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen) 3.1Building Envelope K.1 Insulation 3.7

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Scoring details for high priority technologies Technical concept Code Application/project

Efficiency Benefit

GHG Benefit

Non-Energy / Emission Benefits

Barriers to Adoption

Economics

Accessible Market /

Scale

Overall Score

Rating (1 = worst, 5 = best)

Condensing Technology

A.4 Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) - Retrofit Device for High-Efficiency Residential Heating and Humidification 4 4 2 4 4 4 3.8

A.5 High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs 4 4 3 2 2 3 3.2

Hot water heating / boilers

B.1 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters 3 3 1 4 2 5 3.2B.2 Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable) 4 5 5 2 2 2 3.4B.3 Thermal compression gas heat pump 4 4 2 3 2 3 3.2B.5 Combined Space and Water Heating Systems 3 3 4 3 3 3 3.1

KitchenC.2

Kitchen ventilation improvement by using smoke sensors in exhaust stream and using information to control variable speed fans in the exhaust Demand control kitchen ventilation (DCKV) using sensor and optimization of fan use Demand control (DCKV) systems were developed that adjust

3 3 2 5 2 5 3.4

C.3 Combination steam and heat oven 4 4 4 4 3 3 3.7C.5 Boilerless steamer - Multistacked convention steamer for high volume cooking 3 3 4 4 3 3 3.2

On-Site Generation

D.2 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Conventional Stirling 4 3 4 2 2 3 3.1D.4 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - GRI 4 3 4 3 2 3 3.2D.5 Zero Net Emission Home 5 5 5 2 1 1 3.3D.7 Solid oxide fuel cells 4 5 3 2 1 2 3.1

BurnersE.1 Demonstration high production fryers 3 3 4 4 4 3 3.3

E.6 Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology and ultra-low power gas-water-heater control technology 4 4 4 2 4 5 4.0

Heat PumpsF.1 Next Aire GEHP - performance evaluation. Natural-gas-engine driven heat pump in

a heating-dominated climate 3 3 5 4 4 3 3.4

F.2 Residential gas heat-pump water heater 5 5 2 3 4 4 4.1F.3 Application of Innovative Gas Heat-Pump Design to Space Conditioning 5 5 4 2 3 3 3.9

Changes to laundry processing

G.4 Chemicals for Commercial Laundry (non-ozone) 3 4 5 2 2 5 3.7

G.6 Use ozone and cold water instead of detergent and hot water, saving energy and providing better wash characteristics 3 3 4 2 2 5 3.3

Improved Energy Management

I.1 A simplified method for determining duct leakage in weatherization audits 3 3 4 3 4 3 3.2I.3 IoT based thermostats (ie Nest, Honeywell, etc.) 3 3 5 4 4 4 3.7

I.7 Multi-family Demand Controls for Central Domestic HW Systems - Automated controls learn behavior and temperature patterns and adjusts set points (potable) 3 3 3 4 3 3 3.1

I.8 Thermostatically controlled low flow shower head - restriction head adjusts automatically based on temperature and flow 2 2 3 3 5 5 3.2

Transportation J.2 Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen) 4 4 3 3 2 2 3.1Building Envelope K.1 Insulation 3 3 3 5 3 5 3.7

Notes: Technologies were scored across multiple criteria by Enovation, GTI, and other industry experts. Prioritization results were robust across different experts and alternative weighting schemes.

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Content

Executive Summary

Project Scope and Approach

Gas Technologies

End Use Pathways

Vignettes

Appendix

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Pathways Technology Estimated First Cost GHG Reduction

Avai

labl

e To

day

Space heating & cooling

Gas engine heat pump + building envelope + IoT based thermostats N/A 50-55%

Gas recip – CHP + building envelope + IoT based thermostats $4,000-6,500/kW + $1,000-2,000 45-65%

Condensing furnace + building envelope + IoT based thermostats $3,000-$4,000 25-35%

Water heating

Tankless water heater $1,200-1,500 25-30%

Condensing storage water heater $1,500-3,500 15-20%

Residential gas heat pump water heater $1,600-2,000 45-55%

Combined space and water heater $6,000-10,000 30-40%

Laundry Ozone clothes washing $250-500 45-50%

Cooking

High production fryers $5,000-6,000 30-40%

Boilerless steamer $9,000-10,000 15-20%

Combination steam and heat oven $14,000-15,000 55-60%

Transportation Commercial compressed natural gas vehicles Variable 10-20%

Avai

labl

e N

ear T

erm

Space heating & cooling

Low-cost residential gas absorption heat pump (GAHP) combi N/A 50-55%

Solid oxide fuel cell N/A 55-75%

Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) $450-685 25-35%

Water Heating Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) $1,000-1,200 20-25%

Laundry Advanced gas dryer N/A 0-5%

Transportation Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen) N/A >50%

Prioritized current and near-term technologies were combined into coherent end use pathways* to illustrate customer benefits

* Many other technologically compatible combinations possible

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Combining emerging end-use technologies in the residential sector creates multiple pathways for customers to reduce GHG emissions

Water heating,up to 55%

• Absorption heat pump

Laundry, 55%• Gas dryer• Ozone washing • Gas stove

• Gas oven

Space Cooling, up to 45%Space Heating, up to 40%• Gas heat pump

72

Cooking, minimal change

Building Efficiency, 10-45%• IoT based thermostat• Building Envelope

Notes: GHG reduction potential is estimated based on efficiency improvements over stock average gas equipment efficiency and building envelope in 2016

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Combining emerging end-use technologies in the commercial sector creates multiple pathways for customers to reduce GHG emissions

Notes: GHG reduction potential is estimated based on efficiency improvements over stock average gas equipment efficiency and building envelope in 2016

Transportation, up to 20%• Commercial compressed natural

gas vehicles

Cooking, up to 40%• High efficiency

fryer

Energy Management & Building Efficiency, 10-45%• Building Envelope• IOT Thermostat

Water heating, up to 15%• Condensing storage

Electric Generation, Space Heating, up to 50%• CHP, Gas Recip

Engine

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Content

Executive Summary

Project Scope and Approach

Gas Technologies

End Use Pathways

Vignettes

Appendix

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Value Drivers Time Customer

type State Possible Customer Vignettes Matching Gas Technologies(showcase examples)

Sustainability

Today Residential IL 1*. Zero Net Energy home • Hydronic radiant system with gas absorption heat pump

Future Residential OR/CA 2*. Large single family home in suburban area – goal of being sustainable and technologically advanced

• Renewable natural gas• Retrofitted gas furnace with

Transport Membrane Humidifier

Affordability Today

Residential

CT 3*. Low income family renting a townhome trying to manage their utility bills while maintaining comfort

• Natural gas furnace• High efficiency gas boiler• Gas dryer

NY 4*. Middle income family in Queens, NY in a single family home • Gas boiler

FL 5. Fixed income retiree in a small house • TBD

Commercial

MA 6. Residential developer/builder deciding whether to include access to gas in the new development • TBD

OH 7. Restaurant owner wanting to make high quality healthy food at affordable prices • TBD

CA 8. Public bus system in a city looking to provide the service cheaply and sustainably • TBD

ResilienceToday Residential MO 9*. Single family home choosing gas powered appliances after

having lived through power outages• Condensing gas furnace• Gas fired tankless water heater

Future Residential NJ, VA, NC 10. Coastal house • TBD

ComfortToday Residential MI 11. Single family home • TBD

Future Residential TX 12. Large residence near Houston with a heated pool, hot tub and backup generation • TBD

* Examples follow

Note: Vignettes can be easily customized by gas utilities or other interested parties. Please contact AGA for assistance.

A portfolio of vignettes can represent a range of customer circumstances and value mixes.

Customer vignettes are an effective way of communicating gas technology benefits to participants in energy policy discussions

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Vignette 1: Natural gas improves resilience and comfort of a Midwestern Zero Net Energy home, reducing CO2 at a lower cost

Technologies• Heating: Hydronic radiant system with gas

absorption heat pump• Cooling: Electric heat pump with exterior

condenser and interior evaporator• Water heating: Gas absorption heat pump• Laundry: Standard electric washer and dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard

electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave• Other: Electric battery, building envelope,

programmable thermostat

Profile• Young couple near Chicago, IL• Single family residential

home, 2,200 sq ft• Median income• Most concerned about

sustainability and affordability, to a lesser degree about comfort and resilience

Energy sources• Utility delivered

natural gas• Utility delivered

electricity • Solar roof PV (with

net metering)• Li-ion battery

Nick Rumas and Shin-ae Kang are building a ZNE home near Chicago, IL. Sustainability is very important to them, as is affordability. Natural gas plays an important part in both of these –efficiently heating, cooking, drying, as well as saving them money in construction and monthly bills.

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Vignette 2: In the future, Renewable Natural Gas is a more affordable and effective way to improve sustainability in an Oregon home

Technologies• Heating: Retrofitted gas furnace (Transport Membrane Humidifier)• Cooling: Electric heat pump• Water heating: Gas tankless water heater• Laundry: Standard electric washer and gas dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric refrigerator,

dishwasher and microwave• Other: Building envelope, IoT based thermostat, Energy management

and information system; outdoor gas heating, gas lighting, EV

Notes: Residential electric rates assume 1% annual escalation per EIA

Profile• 3,400 sq ft home in Portland, OR• Couple in their 50s, no kids• Most concerned about

demonstrating sustainability commitment while enjoying the full potential of technology

Energy sources• Utility delivered

renewable gas• Utility delivered

electricity • Solar roof PV (with net

metering)• Li-ion battery

In 2033, Liliana and Jay have a home outside Portland that is a showplace of new technology, but only a few years ahead in their progressive neighborhood. They showcase the applications of renewable gas – lighting, outdoor heating, indoor, water heating, along with electric – EVs, solar roof, LED lighting, battery - and whole home controls and efficiency that minimizes use of energy wherever possible

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Vignette 3: Efficient natural gas technologies are a lower cost and faster way for property owners to comply with regional climate policies, while also significantly decreasing energy bills for renters in Hartford, CT

Profile• Family of 4 near Hartford, CT• Rented 1,400 sq ft townhome• Lower income, LIHEAP eligible• Most concerned about affordability, and also with comfort

and safety with kids in the house

Technologies• Heating: Natural gas furnace• Cooling: Electric AC• Water heating: High efficiency gas boiler• Laundry: Standard electric washer and gas dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric

refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave• Other: Building envelope, efficient lighting, low flow

shower heads, programmable thermostat

Paul is a single parent with three children who chose to rent a 1,400 sq ft townhome near Hartford, CT because the landlord had just replaced this older unit’s aging, high maintenance appliances with new, more efficient gas appliances. First cost was very important to the landlord, so he chose the least expensive option available, which was modern gas appliances with energy efficiency incentives from the local gas utility. Paul’s family was able to enjoy the comfort of a warm and efficient home with lower utility bills – and more cash for the holidays.

Notes: Technology choices represent typical decisions made by a landlord of a rental property, homeowners may make different choices

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Vignette 4a: Gas innovation and efficiency is the only practical path for an NYC home to make a near term impact on state 80x50 goals

Gas Losses

Electric LossesGas LossesGas GenerationMarginal Unit

(NYC)

Emissions:10oF: 12.2 lb CO220oF: 6.8 lb CO230oF: 4.1 lb CO2

Emissions:10oF: 7.2 lb CO2 20oF: 6.0 lb CO230oF: 4.8 lb CO2

Electric System Gas Need:10oF: 104,200 Btu20oF: 57,900 Btu30oF: 34,700 Btu

Gas Need:10oF: 61,200 Btu20oF: 51,000 Btu30oF: 40,800 Btu

Electrification

Direct Gas Use(not including future

innovation)

City

Gat

e

Note: Developed in collaboration with Con Edison

Efficient residential gas heating costs NYC customers much less, and below ~25oF has lower CO2 emissions than electric under today’s marginal generation mix

Profile• 2,000 Ft2 single family home, NYC Metro area• Home heated to 70oF• Outside air temperature cases: 10oF to 30oF

The owners of single family home in Queens, NY are concerned about meeting their city’s 80 x 50 goals. They would like to know what role they can play in GHG emission reduction. While they understand that cutting emissions may raise their energy costs, they also want to make sure those expenditures are worthwhile. How would their GHG emissions and costs for space heating change if they switched to an electric heat pump, using current technologies?

70oFASHP vs.

80% Efficient Gas Boiler

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Summary• Total energy delivered by the gas system

significantly exceeds the energy delivered by the electric system ‒ At summer peak, the gas system delivers more

than twice the energy delivered by the electric system (1,770 MDt/day vs. 870 MDt/day) as gas also supports local electric and steam generation

‒ At winter peak, gas is about 60% more than summer (2,780 MDt/day vs. 1,770 MDt/day), and 3X more than the electric energy delivered at summer peak

‒ One fundamental reason for the primacy of gas – customer heating needs require changing room temperatures up to 60oF, while cooling requires less than 25oF

Vignette 4b: New York City and Westchester rely heavily on gas; electrification means fundamental redesign

Note: Developed in collaboration with Con Edison

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Summary

• System impact of electrification: building the electric delivery system to well beyond its current peak day delivery – With about 23% Electric System Energy Efficiency and 80% Renewables, a shift to 100% electric

heat and hot water may need to support a winter peak of up to ~29,000 MW, compared to a current electric peak of ~13,300 MW in summer and ~9,000 MW in winter

– With about 60% Electric System Energy Efficiency and 70% Renewables, a shift to 100% electric heat and hot water may need to support a winter peak of up to ~18,500 MW, compared to a current electric peak of ~13,300 MW in summer and ~9,000 MW in winter

• Customer impact of electrification to achieve 80 X 50 GHG Reduction Goals will lead to significantly higher energy bills and significant retrofit expense– Higher bills: ~ $3,700/ year today (2018$) to ~ $9,000/year in 2050 ($2018) for 2,000 Ft2 single

family home– Direct customer cost for incremental electric retrofit: ~ $25k-$35k ($2018)

Vignette 4c: Electrification of New York City and Westchester to achieve 80 X 50 presents technical and customer cost challenges

Note: Developed in collaboration with Con Edison

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Vignette template 5: Fixed-income retiree in Florida Primary values: Affordability and Comfort

Mary retired to a senior development in The Villages, Florida in 2007. Her primary energy concerns are around future increases in her utility bills, and surprises when she needs to spend her savings on home repairs. She enjoys cooking with gas and the warmth of her heating system on the occasional chilly evening.

Profile• 1,600 sq ft home in northern Florida• Retired for over a decade, with careful budgeting to

enjoy lifestyle and family• Most concerned about predictability of bills and

minimization of maintenance

Technologies• Heating and Cooling: High Efficiency Condensing Condo

Packs (A.5)• Water heating: Condensing water heater (A.6)• Drying: Standard electric• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven

Illustrative

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Vignette template 6: Home developerPrimary values: Affordability, Sustainability and Customer Choice

Profile• Home developers have to make a decision on how much

electrical and gas infrastructure to provide• Level of electric and gas delivery capacity installed depends on

view of future technology and usage trends• Including gas infrastructure provides homeowners a choice of

using gas appliances, which are often more economical• Access to gas also allows for additional amenities, e.g. gas

fireplaces, grills which increase comfort and the value of homes and provide more choices to homeowners

Technologies• Heating: Electric heat pump + Gas furnace (F.7), • Cooling: Electric heat pump• Water heating: Gas fired tankless water heater (B.1)• Drying: Standard electric• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven• Other: Gas fireplace, building envelope (K.1, K.3, K.4), IoT

thermostat (I.3)• Future: CHP micro-turbine (D.4)

A residential developer in greater Boston is faced with the decision to incorporate gas infrastructure in her development plan. She is worried about additional cost, but doesn’t want to limit customer choice, and may receive a price premium for offering highly efficient gas to buyers

Illustrative

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Vignette template 7a: NGVs on a RNGPrimary goals: Sustainability and Affordability

The state of California is looking to reduce carbon emissions from transportation via several policies: Assembly Bill 32 (AB32), Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Renewable Fuel Standard Program (federal)

Policy• LCFS uses a market-based cap and trade approach to lowering

the greenhouse gas emissions from petroleum-based transportation fuels

• Signed into law in 2007 beginning with a 0.25% in 2011 culminating in a 10% total reduction in 2020 in carbon intensity

Outcome• Policies have created financial value in converting current

fleets of medium and heavy duty vehicle to CNG or other cleaner fuels (via RIN and LCFS credits)

• Resulting adoption rate is very high. More than 80% of NGVs on the road currently use RNG

1. The same mileage is assumed for both types of vehicles

Illustrative

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• California Whole Home Energy Efficiency Upgrade Program– Rebate up to $5,500 for whole-home EE upgrades (based on efficiency points)– Includes furnace, water heater, windows, insulation, air conditioning– Specially trained contractors provide advice on whole-home approach– Has the potential to generate much more reduction than piece-by-piece

rebates

• California Heavy Duty Vehicle Incentive Program (HVIP)– Focused on a difficult to address segment (HD Trucks)– Up to $40,000 per truck employing ultra-low-NOx engine

Vignette 7b: CA Policy vignette

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Vignette 9: Natural gas innovation reduces CO2 and also delivers resilience and affordability to a family in Missouri

Profile• 3,200 sq ft home in eastern Missouri• Family of 4• Most concerned about resilience and affordability

Technologies• Heating: Condensing gas furnace• Cooling: Electric heat pump • Water heating: Gas fired tankless water heater• Laundry: Standard electric washer and dryer• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard

electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave• Other: Building envelope, programmable thermostat

The Johnson family of St Louis, MO, has lived through several ice storms, and chose their current house due to its gas appliances. Their previous home was all electric, and they suffered through the multi-day outages that typically follow ice storms. They like the comfort of their gas furnace, and are interested in learning more about money-saving advanced gas solutions.

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Profile• 10,000 sq ft house• Access to electrical grid and gas connection• Owner most concerned with ongoing large energy

consumption, but also with power outages during hurricane season

• Largest energy uses are: heating pool, cooling and heating house and domestic hot water heating

Technologies• Power: Micro CHP (D.4), grid electricity and utility delivered

gas• Heating: Micro CHP (D.4)• Cooling: Electric heat pump• Water heating: Gas fired tankless water heater (B.1)• Drying: Standard electric• Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; outdoor gas grill• Other: Building envelope (K.1, K.3, K.4), IoT thermostat (I.3),

gas fireplace

Vignette template 12: Large home near HoustonPrimary values: Comfort and Resilience

Owners of a large residence near Houston, TX want to make their home comfortable for family, and welcoming for entertaining. Natural gas plays a role in the enjoyment of their home, and with innovative technologies, the homeowners can substantially improve efficiency. Their energy needs include heating and cooling their 10,000 sq ft house, hot water for 6 bathrooms, cooking, lighting, heating a pool and a hot tub and backup generation. Despite the volume of use, they are concerned with on-going monthly energy costs and wants to make sure that their home stays safe and online, even in severe storms.

Illustrative

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Content

Executive Summary

Project Scope and Approach

Gas Technologies

End Use Pathways

Vignettes

Appendix

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Detailed scoring for all technologies (1 of 5)

Technical concept Code Application/project

Efficiency Benefit

GHG Benefit

Non-Energy / Emission Benefits

Barriers to Adoption

Economics

Accessible Market /

Scale

Overall Score

Rating (1 = worst, 5 = best)

Condensing Technology

A.1 Rooftop units - heating and cooling 3 3 2 2 3 4 3.0A.2 Integrated Contact Condensing Water Heater 3 3 3 3 3 3 3.0A.3 In-Situ Flue Burner 2 2 3 3 2 3 2.4A.4 Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) 4 4 2 4 4 4 3.8A.5 High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs 4 4 3 2 2 3 3.2A.6 Residential Condensing Water Heater 3 3 2 2 2 4 2.9A.7 Condensing Wall Furnace 3 3 3 2 3 2 2.7

A.8 Condensing economizer - Extracts latent heat from boiler flue gas; usually in series with (sensible) heat exchanger. Industrial Boilers; high pressure > 85 psi 3 3 2 4 3 3 3.0

Hot water heating / boilers

B.1 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters 3 3 1 4 2 5 3.2B.2 Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable) 4 5 5 2 2 2 3.4B.3 Boost Heat - Thermal compression 4 4 2 3 3 3.0B.4 SuperPerm Burner for Water Heaters 2 2 1 3 4 1.8B.5 Combined Space and Water Heating Systems 3 3 4 3 3 3 3.1B.6 Steam Boiler with built-in energy recovery 2 3 3 3 3 2 2.6B.7 Residential Vapor Vacuum Heating 1 1 3 2 3 1 1.6

B.8

Oxygen Membrane Enhanced Burner - Polymer in the burner assembly that enriches oxygen constituency in the combustion air; higher permeance than other materials and allows for higher oxygen content which increases combustion efficiency

2 2 3 2 2 2 2.1

Kitchen

C.1 Grease Trap Htx - Extract heat from waste grease to pre-heat hot water 1 2 2 2 4 3 2.2

C.2

Kitchen ventilation improvement by using smoke sensors in exhaust stream and using information to control variable speed fans in the exhaust Demand control kitchen ventilation (DCKV) using sensor and optimization of fan use Demand control (DCKV) systems were developed that adjust

3 3 2 5 2 5 3.4

C.3 Combination steam and heat oven 4 4 4 4 3 3 3.7C.4 Commercial Pilotless Gas Range 2 2 3 2 3 2 2.2

C.5 Boilerless steamer (duplicate below) - Multistacked convention steamer for high volume cooking 3 3 4 4 3 3 3.2

Notes: 1. Scores robust across multiple weightings and corroborated with GTI and other industry experts.

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Detailed scoring for all technologies (2 of 5)

Technical concept Code Application/project

Efficiency Benefit

GHG Benefit

Non-Energy / Emission Benefits

Barriers to Adoption

Economics

Accessible Market /

Scale

Overall Score

Rating (1 to 5; 1 = worst, 5 = best)

On-Site Generation

D.1 High Efficiency Thermoelectric Generators 1 2 3 2 3 2 2.0D.2 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Conventional Stirling 4 3 4 2 2 3 3.1D.3 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Resonance Stirling 3 3 4 2 2 1 2.4D.4 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Tim Kingston - GRI 4 3 4 3 2 3 3.2D.5 Zero Net Emission Home 5 5 5 2 1 1 3.3D.6 1 kWe residential-scale CHP system NS2 NS NS NS NS NS NSD.7 Solid oxide fuel cells 4 5 3 2 1 2 3.1D.8 Advanced direct carbon fuel cell 4 5 3 2 1 2 3.1

Burners

E.1 Demonstration high production fryers 3 3 4 4 4 3 3.3E.2 Conveyor broiler improvements 2 2 3 3 2 2 2.2

E.3 Enhanced radiant heat transfer with advanced coatings - High emissivity coating that reduce porosity of thermal burners 2 2 2 2 2 1 1.8

E.4 Unplugged ENERGY STAR Water Heater 2 2 4 2 4 2 2.4E.5 3D-printed industrial process burner 2 2 4 4 3 2 2.6

E.6 Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology and ultra-lowpower gas-water-heater control technology 4 4 4 2 4 5 4.0

Heat Pumps

F.1 Next Aire GEHP - performance evaluation 3 3 5 4 4 3 3.4F.2 Residential gas heat-pump water heater 5 5 2 3 4 4 4.1F.3 Application of Innovative Gas Heat-Pump Design to Space Conditioning 5 5 4 2 3 3 3.9F.4 Thermally-Driven Ground-Source Heat Pump 3 3 2 2 2 2 2.4

F.5 Thermally-Driven fluidic compressor; evaporation phase energy is captured and reused in the refrigeration process; achieve higher COPs in the cycle 3 3 2 2 2 1 2.2

F.6 Thermolift heat pump NS NS NS NS NS NS NSF.7 Electric Heat Pump + Gas Furnace 3 3 2 2 2 2 2.4F.8 Solar thermal heat pump 4 4 3 2 2 2 3.0

Notes: 1. Scores robust across multiple weightings and corroborated with GTI and other industry experts. 2. Not scored

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Detailed scoring for all technologies (3 of 5)

Technical concept Code Application/project

Efficiency Benefit

GHG Benefit

Non-Energy / Emission Benefits

Barriers to Adoption

Economics

Accessible Market /

Scale

Overall Score

Rating (1 to 5; 1 = worst, 5 = best)

Changes to laundry processing

G.1 Next-Generation Advanced Gas Dryer DevelopmentJC to review UTD document 2 2 2 3 3 3 2.4

G.2 Commercial Dryer Modulating Gas Retrofit 2 2 3 3 3 2 2.3G.3 Dryer Moisture Sensor Retrofit 1 1 2 2 3 3 1.9G.4 Chemicals for Commercial Laundry (non-ozone) 3 4 5 2 2 5 3.7G.5 Advanced gas infra-red burner to compete with electric 2 2 2 3 2 1 1.9

G.6 Use ozone and cold water instead of detergent and hot water, saving energy and providing better wash characteristics 3 3 4 2 2 5 3.3

Solar Thermal / Heat Recovery

H.1 Heat wheels (air-to-air heat exchanger) - Use enthalpy in HVAC return air to pre-heat inlet air drawn from the atmosphere 2 2 3 2 2 2 2.1

H.2 Thermal Destratification Fans 2 2 2 3 2 2 2.1H.3 Air Solar Collector System 2 2 3 3 2 2 2.2H.4 Multifamily reflective heat barriers 1 2 3 2 1 2 1.8H.5 Flue Gas Condenser for heat recovery 2 2 3 3 2 2 2.2

H.6 HE Grain Dryer- Waste heat exchanger and recovery built into grain dryer 4 4 4 4 2 4 3.8

Improved Energy Management

I.1 A simplified method for determining duct leakage in weatherization audits 3 3 4 3 4 3 3.2

I.2 Outdoor-air-temperature-based ventilation control 2 2 3 2 3 3 2.4I.3 IoT based thermostats 3 3 5 4 4 4 3.7

I.4 Variable vent louvres - Wireless sensors communicate to smart thermostat; vary air flow to meet temperature set point 2 2 4 3 2 2 2.3

I.5 Wireless Steam Trap Monitor - Detects failed open or close steam trap and provides alarm at centralized control 3 3 4 3 1 1 2.4

Notes: 1. Scores robust across multiple weightings and corroborated with GTI and other industry experts.

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Detailed scoring for all technologies (4 of 5)

Technical concept Code Application/project

Efficiency Benefit

GHG Benefit

Non-Energy / Emission Benefits

Barriers to Adoption

Economics

Accessible Market /

Scale

Overall Score

Rating (1 to 5; 1 = worst, 5 = best)

Improved Energy Management(cont’ed)

I.6 Predictive Analytics Energy Management System Overlay -Continuous based commissioning of existing BAS 3 4 4 2 2 2 2.9

I.7Multi-family Demand Controls for Central Domestic HW Systems -Automated controls learn behavior and temperature patterns and adjusts set points (potable)

3 3 3 4 3 3 3.1

I.8 Thermostatically controlled low flow shower head - restriction head adjusts automatically based on temperature and flow 2 2 3 3 5 5 3.2

I.9 Energy Management and Information System (EMIS) 3 3 5 2 2 3 3.0I.10 Innovative On-Demand WH Pump 2 2 4 3 2 3 2.6I.11 Commercial Pneumatic Thermostat 2 2 5 3 2 2 2.4I.12 Automated O2 Control Systems 2 2 3 5 4 2 2.7

Transportation

J.1 Natural gas internal combustion engine vehicles running on compressed natural gas 2 2 3 3 2 2 2.2

J.2 Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen) 4 4 3 3 2 2 3.1J.3 natural-gas-vehicle home-refueling appliances 1 1 5 3 2 3 2.2J.4 Free-Piston Linear-Motor Compressor 2 2 2 4 1.6J.5 CWI 6.7-Liter Medium-Duty Engine Development 2 3 3 4 4 3 3.0J.6 Improvements in High-Volume Dispensing Performance 1 1 5 2 3 4 2.4J.7 Free-Piston Linear-Motor Compressor Scale-Up 2 1 4 3 4 2 2.3J.8 CNG Fuel Station Safety, Performance, and Best Practices Audit Kit 2 2 4 4 NS2 NS NSJ.9 High-Volume, Off-Road CNG Applications Analysis 2 2 2 2 3 NS NS

J.10 13- to 15-Liter Heavy-Duty Natural Gas Engines for Class 8 Trucks 2 2 3 2 NS 2 NS

Notes: 1. Scores robust across multiple weightings and corroborated with GTI and other industry experts. 2. Not scored

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Detailed scoring for all technologies (5 of 5)

Notes: 1. Scores robust across multiple weightings and corroborated with GTI and other industry experts. 2. Not scored

Technical concept Code Application/project

Efficiency Benefit

GHG Benefit

Non-Energy / Emission Benefits

Barriers to Adoption

Economics

Accessible Market /

Scale

Overall Score

Rating (1 to 5; 1 = worst, 5 = best)

Building Envelope

K.1 Insulation 3 3 3 5 3 5 3.7K.2 Advanced aerogel insulating material for window insulation NS2 NS NS NS NS NS NSK.3 Building materials 2 2 4 4 3 3 2.8K.4 Windows 1 2 4 5 1 4 2.7

MiscellaneousL.1 Commercial and industrial air barriers 2 2 3 2 2 4 2.6L.2 Natural gas cooling 2 2 3 1 2 1 1.8

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Additional references for prioritized technologies (1 of 4)

Technical concept Code Technology/Reference

Condensing Technologies

A.4Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH)• Center for Energy and Environment, Field Study of a moisture and heat transfer furnace retrofit device, 2015• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017

A.5 High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs• Technology Snapshot, Residential, Multi-Family, Through-the-Wall Condensing Furnace/AC Package, GTI, 2017

Hot water heating / boilers

B.1 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters• End-Use Solutions, Volume 4, Number 1, GTI, May 2009

B.2 Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable)• Solar Water Heaters, DOE

B.3 Boost Heat - Thermal compression• BoostHeat, http://www.boostheat.com/en/the-heat-boiler/

B.5 Combined Space and Water Heating Systems• Advanced Gas Water Heaters for High Performance DHW and Combi-System Applications, 2015 ACEEE Hot Water Forum

Kitchen

C.2

Kitchen ventilation improvement by using smoke sensors in exhaust stream and using information to control variable speed fansin the exhaust Demand control kitchen ventilation (DCKV) using sensor and optimization of fan use Demand control (DCKV) systems were developed that adjust• CKV Design Guides, Food Service Technology Center• Kitchen Ventilation Publications, Food Service Technology Center• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017

C.3

Combination steam and heat oven• Blodgett BLCT-6E Electric Mini Combi Over Test Report, Food Service Technology Center, 2017• Unox XAVC-10FS-GPR Gas Combination Over Test Report, Food Service Technology Center, 2017• Alto Shaam CTP20-20G Gas Combination Over Test Report, Food Service Technology Center, 2016

C.5Boilerless steamer (duplicate below) - Multistacked convention steamer for high volume cooking• Accutemp Evolution Gas Steamer Test Report, Food Service Technology Center, 2014• Market Forge Sirius II Gas Steamer Test Report, Food Service Technology Center, 2015

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Additional references for prioritized technologies (2 of 4)

Technical concept Code Technology/Reference

On-Site Generation

D.2Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW - Conventional Stirling • Catalog of CHP Technologies, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Combined Heat and Power Partnership, 2017• Combined Heat & Power Production: Micro-CHP with Stirling Engine, Siemens, 2009

D.4 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kW – GRI• Catalog of CHP Technologies, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Combined Heat and Power Partnership, 2017

D.5

Zero Net Emission Home• Zero Energy Ready Home, DOE• Zero Energy Project• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017

D.7 Solid oxide fuel cells• Osaka Gas, http://www.osakagas.co.jp/en/rd/fuelcell/sofc/technology/technology.html

Burners

E.1 Demonstration high production fryers• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017

E.6Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology and ultra-low power gas-water-heater control technology• Two Phase Thermo-Syphon Water Heater Technology Development, TPTS Development Company, 2018

Heat Pumps

F.1

Next Aire GEHP - performance evaluation. Natural-gas-engine driven heat pump in a heating-dominated climate• Gas Engine-Driven Heat Pump (GHP) Cold Climate Field Demonstration (EW-201515), DOD’s Environmental Research

Programs, 2015• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017

F.2Residential gas heat-pump water heater• Commercial Water Heating Using Gas Absorption Heat Pumps, ACEEE Hot Water Forum, 2016• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017

F.3Application of Innovative Gas Heat-Pump Design to Space Conditioning• Gas-Fired Absorption Heat Pump, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, DOE• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017

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Additional references for prioritized technologies (3 of 4)

Technical concept Code Technology/Reference

Changes to laundry processing

G.4

Chemicals for Commercial Laundry (non-ozone)• Commercial Laundry Facilities Introduction, Alliance for Water Efficiency• Energy Intensive Process in Professional Laundry Service: Up-to-date Approach, CHEMICAL ENGINEERING TRANSACTIONS,

Vol.35, 2013

G.6

Use ozone and cold water instead of detergent and hot water, saving energy and providing better wash characteristics• Nicor Gas Energy Efficiency Emerging Technology Program, 1005: Ozone Laundry, 2013• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017• Emerging Technology Program, 2014, GTI

Improved Energy Management

I.1 A simplified method for determining duct leakage in weatherization audits• Research Project Summaries 2016-2017, UTD, 2017

I.3

IoT based thermostats (ie Nest, Honeywell, etc.)• Nest Learning Thermostat Pilot Program Savings Assessment, Bonneville Power Administration & Franklin Public Utility

District, 2016• Evaluation of the 2013–2014 Programmable and Smart Thermostat Program, The Cadmus Group, 2015• Smart Thermostats, A CLEAResult White Paper, prepared for Commonwealth Edison, 2015• PG&E Smart Thermostat Study: First Year Findings, PG&E’s Emerging Technologies Program, 2016• Certified Products, Energy Star Smart Thermostats – Certified to Deliver Smart Saving, Energy Star• National Study of Potential of Smart Thermostats for Energy Efficiency and Demand Response, ACEEE, 2016

I.7

Multi-family Demand Controls for Central Domestic HW Systems - Automated controls learn behavior and temperature patterns and adjusts set points (potable)• Energy-Efficient Controls for Multifamily Domestic Hot Water, DOE, Building America Webinar, 2015• Central Domestic Hot Water Systems in Multi-Family Buildings, ACEEE 2010 Hot Water Forum• On-Demand Controls for Central Hot Water Systems White Paper, GTI, 2014

I.8Thermostatically controlled low flow shower head - restriction head adjusts automatically based on temperature and flow • Pilot Study for a Thermostatic Shower Restriction Valve, Evolve Technologies, 2015• Low Flow Showerheads and Aerators, PG&E, 2014

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Additional references for prioritized technologies (4 of 4)

Technical concept Code Technology/Reference

Transportation J.2 Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen)• Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Natural Gas for Cars, DOE, 2015

Building Envelope K.1

Insulation• Energy Saver, Weatherization, DOE• Energy Savings at Home, Energy Star• Insulation GWT, GTI

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Emerging Gas Technologies for Lower GHG Emissions

More detailed examples of emerging gas technologies

Conference panel organized by Enovation Partners as part of search for relevant gas technologies

May 16, 2018

MODERATOR:BILL KEMP

Director, Enovation Partners

PHILIPPE DUJARDIN

Chief Financial Officer, BoostHEAT

MICH HEINCEO, Electrochaea

PETER OLLIKAINEN

Head of Business Development, Finno

Energy

NADÈGE LECLERCQ

Director, Market Development,

Europe, Middle East and Africa, Westport

Fuel Systems

[Insert link to AGA Web site with full conference panel presentations]