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GFE/ICS Grid Investigation and Utilization · Northwest River Forecast Center GFE/ICS Grid...
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Northwest River Forecast Center GFE/ICS Grid Investigation and Utilization by Don Laurine Martin Lee Harold Opitz DOH workshop – June 2004
Transcript of GFE/ICS Grid Investigation and Utilization · Northwest River Forecast Center GFE/ICS Grid...
Northwest River Forecast CenterGFE/ICS Grid Investigation and Utilization
by
Don Laurine
Martin Lee
Harold Opitz
DOH workshop – June 2004
Objectives of This Project:
Take Advantage of WFO Gridded Forecasts
Develop Understanding of Gridded Issues
Move Away from Climatologically based System
Position Office to be a customer and service provider for gridded information
Apply to Both Temperature and Precipitation
Support Finer Resolution Models
Utilize Nationally Supported Software
DOH workshop – June 2004
GFE System
2 – 1 Ghz CPUs
I GB memory
100 MB network band width
Linux Red Hat 7.3
GFE RPP 21.0
DOH workshop – June 2004
Basic System Issues
- Difficult to Use all WFO ISC Grids
- Lack of Tools for RFC to Deal with Grid Inconsistencies
- Limited Training and Support
- High Learning Curve for Python and Developing Procedures and CRON Applications
- Takes 10 Minutes to Generated NWSRFS Forecasts without Analysis
- All Input in NetCDF Format
DOH workshop – June 2004
Missing ISC Grids
DOH workshop – June 2004
Inconsistency
DOH workshop – June 2004
Lack of Tools
DOH workshop – June 2004
Grid Elevation and Value Issue
DOH workshop – June 2004
Current NWRFC Status
Focused Still - Grids to Points
Developing A Winter QPF Project for Winter 2004
Evaluating Temperature Forecasts This Spring
Working With FSL to Develop Methods to Deal With Multiple WFO ISC Grids
DOH workshop – June 2004
Temperature Verification Sites
DOH workshop – June 2004
Max Temperature Average Bias
WestSide ISC Area < 3k ft MAX_T AVG BIAS
-3.5
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
AVG
BIA
S ws<3K CLMws<3k MOSws<3k GFEws<3k SFT
WestSide ISC Area > 3k ft MAX_T AVG BIAS
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
AVG
BIA
S ws>3K CLMws>3k MOSws>3k GFEws>3k SFT
EastSide ISC Area < 3k ft MAX_T AVG BIAS
-3.5
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
AVG
BIA
S es<3K CLMes<3k MOSes<3k GFEes<3k SFT
EeastSide ISC Area > 3k ft MAX_T AVG BIAS
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
01 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
AV
G B
IAS es>3K CLM
es>3k MOSes>3k GFEes>3k SFT
DOH workshop – June 2004
Max Temperature MAE
WestSide ISC Area < 3k ft MAX_T MAE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
MA
E
ws<3K CLMws<3k MOSws<3k GFEws<3k SFT
WestSide ISC Area > 3k ft MAX_T MAE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
MAE
ws>3K CLMws>3k MOSws>3k GFEws>3k SFT
WestSide ISC Area < 3k ft MAX_T MAE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
MA
E
ws<3K CLMws<3k MOSws<3k GFEws<3k SFT
EeastSide ISC Area > 3k ft MAX_T MAE
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
MA
E
es>3K CLMes>3k MOSes>3k GFEes>3k SFT
DOH workshop – June 2004
Min Temperature Average Bias
WestSide ISC Area < 3k ft MIN_T AVG BIAS
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
AVG
BIA
S ws<3K CLMws<3k MOSws<3k GFEws<3k SFT
WestSide ISC Area > 3k ft MIN_T AVG BIAS
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
AVG
BIA
S ws>3K CLMws>3k MOSws>3k GFEws>3k SFT
EeastSide ISC Area > 3k ft MIN_T AVG BIAS
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
AVG
BIA
S es>3K CLMes>3k MOSes>3k GFEes>3k SFT
EastSide ISC Area < 3k ft MIN_T AVG BIAS
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
AVG
BIA
S es<3K CLMes<3k MOSes<3k GFEes<3k SFT
DOH workshop – June 2004
Min Temperature MAE
WestSide ISC Area > 3k ft MIN_T MAE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
MAE
ws>3K CLMws>3k MOSws>3k GFEws>3k SFT
WestSide ISC Area < 3k ft MIN_T MAE
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
MAE
ws<3K CLMws<3k MOSws<3k GFEws<3k SFT
EeastSide ISC Area > 3k ft MIN_T MAE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
MA
E
es>3K CLMes>3k MOSes>3k GFEes>3k SFT
EastSide ISC Area < 3k ft MIN_T MAE
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
MAE
es<3K CLMes<3k MOSes<3k GFEes<3k SFT
DOH workshop – June 2004
Non ISC (Model Only) Average Bias
EastSide Non-ISC Area < 3k ft MAX_T AVG BIAS
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
01 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
AVG
BIA
S es<3K CLMes<3k MOSes<3k GFE
EASTSIDE Non-ISC AREA > 3k FT MAX_T AVG BIAS
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
01 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
AVG
BIA
S es>3K CLMes>3k MOSes>3k GFE
EastSide Non-ISC Area < 3k ft MIN_T AVG BIAS
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
AVG
BIA
S es<3K CLMes<3k MOSes<3k GFE
EASTSIDE Non-ISC AREA > 3k FT MIN_T AVG BIAS
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
AVG
BIA
S es>3K CLMes>3k MOSes>3k GFE
DOH workshop – June 2004
Non ISC (Model Only) MAE
EASTSIDE Non-ISC AREA > 3k FT MAX_T MAE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
MAE
es>3K CLMes>3k MOSes>3k GFE
EastSide Non-ISC Area < 3k ft MAX_T MAE
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
MA
E
es<3K CLMes<3k MOSes<3k GFE
EASTSIDE Non-ISC AREA > 3k FT MIN_T MAE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
MAE
es>3K CLMes>3k MOSes>3k GFE
EastSide Non-ISC Area < 3k ft MIN_T MAE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast Day
MA
E
es<3K CLMes<3k MOSes<3k GFE
DOH workshop – June 2004
Summary
Need for Standard Grid Initialization by WFOs
Need to Have Standard Grid Generation Methods
Need for the Grids to Represent Forecast
Need for Canadian Forecasts
Need for GFE Tools for RFC to Modify the ISC Mosaic Grid
Need for NWSRFS to Handle Finer Spatial and Temporal Forecast Data
DOH workshop – June 2004
