GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al Fishery Assessment of Sardine Stock...
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Transcript of GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al Fishery Assessment of Sardine Stock...
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Fishery Assessment of Sardine Stock GSA01 (Northern Alboran) Bellido, J.M.1, Quintanilla, L.2, Giráldez, A.2, Torres, P2.,
Ceruso, C.1, Alemany, F.3, Iglesias, M.3
1 Instituto Español de Oceanografía. Centro Oceanográfico de Murcia. C/ Varadero 1. San Pedro del Pinatar. 30740. Murcia. Spain.
2 Instituto Español de Oceanografía. Centro Oceanográfico de Málaga. Puerto Pesquero s/n. Apdo 285. Fuengirola. 29640. Málaga. Spain.
3 Instituto Español de Oceanografía. Centro Oceanográfico de Baleares. Muelle del Poniente s/n. Apdo 291. Palma de Mallorca 07015. Spain.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Introduction
Fishery assessment by VPA methods of the Spanish sardine stock GSA01.
VPA Lowestoft software suite was used and XSA was the assessment method. A separable VPA was also run as exploratory analysis for both stocks.
Stochastic short term projections were also produced.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
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# #
## ## ###
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Estepona
CartagenaMazarrón
Aguilas
GarruchaCarboneras
AlmeríaRoquetas
Caleta de Vélez AdraMotrilMálaga
FuengirolaMarbella
GSA 01 - NORTHERN ALBORAN SEA
SPAIN
MOROCCO ALGERIA
100 0 100 Kilometers
N
Landings and sampling ports (in blue)
GFCM GSA-01 Northern Alboran
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Assessment Data GSA01
Landings time series 2000-2007.
ALK 2003-2006, combined ALK for 2000-2002. Length Distributions 2003-2007, combined for 2000-2002.
Biological sampling 2003-2007 for Maturity at age and Weight-Length relationships.
Tuning data from acoustic survey ECOMED and Commercial Fleet off Estepona, Málaga and Adra.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
XSA Input Data GSA01Landings (caton)
9325
7457
5348
8244
3964
7208
10002
6766
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Years
To
nn
es
Catch in number (canum)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Num
bers
in
5+
4
3
2
1
0
Mean Weight in catch (weca) and stock (west)
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
0.070
0.080
0.090
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ages
Indiv
idual W
eig
ht (k
g)
20002001200220032004200520062007
Maturity (matprop) and Natural Mortality (natmor)
0.34
0.890.99 1.00 1.00 1.00
0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ages
Proportion mature atyear start
Natural mortality
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
XSA Input Data GSA01Tuning Fleet ECOMED (fleet)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006
Years
Ag
e g
rou
p p
erce
nta
ge
5+
4
3
2
1
0
Tuning Fleet Estepona (fleet)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Years
Ag
e g
rou
p p
erce
nta
ge
5+
4
3
2
1
0
Tuning Fleet Málaga (fleet)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Years
Ag
e g
rou
p p
erce
nta
ge
5+
4
3
2
1
0
Tuning Fleet Adra (fleet)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007
Years
Ag
e g
rou
p p
erce
nta
ge
5+
4
3
2
1
0
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Assessment Model
Separable VPA – as Exploratory tool.
VPA - XSA (Extended Survivors Analysis) as assessment tool.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Diagnostics Separable GSA01
Log catchability residual plots. Some conflict between ages seem to appear. Fleet behaviour and fishery movements could affect the catchability pattern.
SEPARABLE
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0/ 1 1/ 2
2/ 3 3/ 4
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
XSA Assessment
Main Settings XSA:Fbar 1-3.Age 2 for q stock-size independent and age 3 for q independent of age.Fshrinkage = 0.500 and S.E. for fleet terminal estimates ≥ 0.300
XSA Diagnostics.Residuals by Fleet.Estimations of Survivors by age and fleet.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Fleet Diagnostics GSA01ECOMED
-0.62 -0.95 2.32 -0.76
1.27 1.35 -2.03 -0.55
0.09 2.12 0.38 -2.57
-0.60 1.76 0.25 -1.40
-0.21 1.00 0.11 -3.80
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ESTEPONA
-3.80 0.54 -0.44 -0.24 0.69 -0.55
2.12 0.42 -0.05 -0.27 0.13 -0.23
-0.36 0.36 0.35 0.20 -0.55
-0.10 0.09 0.40 -0.18 -0.22
0.21 -0.20 0.18 -0.04 -0.26
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
MÁLAGA
-3.80 0.70 -0.85 0.12 0.53 -0.49
2.12 0.66 -0.75 -0.31 0.54 -0.13
-0.59 -0.63 0.19 0.17 0.83
-0.49 -0.94 -0.37 0.11 1.67
-1.08 -1.77 -1.62 -0.21 1.24
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ADRA
-3.80 -1.10 1.76 -0.96 0.29
2.12 -0.08 0.88 1.38 -2.17
0.18 0.19 0.48 -0.85
0.33 -0.17 -0.06 -0.10
0.22 -0.31 -0.08 -0.05
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Minimun (from ECOMED)
Maximun (from ECOMED)
Minimun (from ECOMED)
Maximun (from ECOMED)
Minimun (from ECOMED)
Maximun (from ECOMED)
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Estimated Survivors by Fleet GSA01
Age 0 - Estimated Survivors by Fleet
0
100000
200000
300000 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou
FLT03-MALAGA (thousa
FLT04-ADRA (thousand P shrinkage mean
F shrinkage mean
Survivors at end of year
Age 0 - Scaled weights by fleet
0
0.25
0.5
0.75 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou
FLT03-MALAGA (thousa
FLT04-ADRA (thousand
P shrinkage mean
F shrinkage mean
Age 1 - Estimated Survivors by Fleet
0
50000
100000
150000 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou
FLT03-MALAGA (thousa
FLT04-ADRA (thousand P shrinkage mean
F shrinkage mean
Survivors at end of year
Age 1 - Scaled weights by fleet
0
0.25
0.5 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou
FLT03-MALAGA (thousa
FLT04-ADRA (thousand
P shrinkage mean
F shrinkage mean
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Estimated Survivors by Fleet GSA01
Age 2 - Estimated Survivors by Fleet
0
100000
200000
300000 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou
FLT03-MALAGA (thousa
FLT04-ADRA (thousand
F shrinkage mean
Survivors at end of year
Age 2 - Scaled weights by fleet
0
0.25
0.5 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou
FLT03-MALAGA (thousa FLT04-ADRA (thousand
F shrinkage mean
Age 3 - Estimated Survivors by Fleet
0
50000
100000
150000 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou
FLT03-MALAGA (thousa
FLT04-ADRA (thousand
F shrinkage mean
Survivors at end of year
Age 3 - Scaled weights by fleet
0
0.25
0.5 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou
FLT03-MALAGA (thousa FLT04-ADRA (thousand
F shrinkage mean
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Estimated Survivors by Fleet GSA01
Age 4 - Estimated Survivors by Fleet
0
20000
40000
60000 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou
FLT03-MALAGA (thousa
FLT04-ADRA (thousand
F shrinkage mean
Survivors at end of year
Age 4 - Scaled weights by fleet
0
0.25
0.5 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa
FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou
FLT03-MALAGA (thousa FLT04-ADRA (thousand
F shrinkage mean
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Results – Stock Summary GSA01
FISHING MORTALITY
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
RECRUITMENT
0100
200300
400500
600700800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
TOTAL BIOMASS AND SSB
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
TOTAL BIOMASS
SSB
TOTAL LANDINGS
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
SSB - RECRUITMENT
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
SSB at 1st of J anuary
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Short term projectionsDeterministic Projections for three years (2008 to 2010).
MFDP software (Multi-Fleet Deterministic Projections). Settings:
Recruitment Geometric mean: GSA01 - R2007 = 228 millions.
F statu quo is Fishing Mortality Average last three years and Reference ages 1-3, i.e. average Fbar last 3 years.
GSA01 – Fstatu quo = 0.28.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Results GSA01 Short term projection
2008Biomass SSB FMult FBar Landings
27423 23727 1 0.2761 5828
2009 2010Biomass SSB FMult FBar Landings Biomass SSB
23952 20311 0 0 0 26954 23165. 20311 0.1 0.0276 563 26349 22576. 20311 0.2 0.0552 1112 25760 22004. 20311 0.3 0.0828 1645 25188 21448. 20311 0.4 0.1104 2165 24631 20907. 20311 0.5 0.1381 2671 24090 20381. 20311 0.6 0.1657 3164 23563 19870. 20311 0.7 0.1933 3643 23051 19372. 20311 0.8 0.2209 4110 22554 18889. 20311 0.9 0.2485 4565 22070 18419. 20311 1 0.2761 5008 21599 17962. 20311 1.1 0.3037 5439 21141 17517. 20311 1.2 0.3313 5859 20696 17085. 20311 1.3 0.359 6268 20263 16664. 20311 1.4 0.3866 6667 19842 16256. 20311 1.5 0.4142 7055 19433 15858. 20311 1.6 0.4418 7432 19035 15472. 20311 1.7 0.4694 7801 18647 15096. 20311 1.8 0.497 8159 18271 14730. 20311 1.9 0.5246 8508 17905 14375. 20311 2 0.5522 8848 17548 14029
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Conclusions - AssessmentLandings decrease in 2007, reaching up 6,770 t. The time series shows a rather fluctuating trend, with the lowest value in 2004 (3,960 t) and the greatest in 2006 (10,000 t).
Fishing mortality is at a moderate level (F07=0.26), showing a rather stable trend.
Recruitment in 2007 decreases from that of previous years (R07=228 millions), showing the lowest value of the time series. The time series recruitment shows a decreasing pattern.
Both Total biomass in 2007 (TB=32,300 t ) and Spawning Stock Biomass in 2007 (SSB=28,800 t) decrease with respect to 2006, although they are still over the lowest SSB in 2000 (Bloss=22,100 t).
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Conclusions – Catch Forecasting
statu quo F (Fbar05-07=0.28) and (R07=228 mill):
landings are predicted to be 5,800 t in 2008 and 5,000 t in 2009 t.Total biomass will decrease from 27,400 t in 2008 to 21,600 t in 2010 SSB will also decrease from 23,700 t in 2008 to 18,000 t in 2010.
This exploitation pattern of maintaining F statu quo 2008-10, with scenarios of low recruitment rates, could prompt a decline of the fishery with SBB scenarios under current Bloss.
In this situation it is particularly important to pay special attention to recruitment levels as they could prompt sudden increases or drops in a near future.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Conclusions - Management considerations
No reference points can be suggested at this point. Further years will come an extension of the assessment time series suitable to suggest Reference Points and Harvest Control Rules.
This fishery is considered as fully exploited.
Under this scenario we consider fishing effort should not increase beyond the current levels. This should allow not to increase (or at least to maintain) the current levels of Fishing mortality.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Further work
Reference points.
Harvest Control Rules.
GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al
Thanks for your attention.
Comments are welcomed.
Dr. Jose Mª Bellido ([email protected])