Getting Enough Votes to Win

Hamish I. Marshall

About Me

Agenda• “One more than the other guy” and other lies

– How many votes do you need to win?

• Reconnaissance– Researching your riding

• The politics of division– Identifying a winning coalition

• “Stay on Target” and the real enemy– Getting the votes you need to win

“One more than the other guy” and other lies

How many votes do you need to win?

He’s got his, you’d better get yours…

• Which 46%?

• Where do you find them?

• Is 46% even the right number?

• How do you figure out the right number?

The Trouble with Polling

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The Trouble with Polling

• Is this good?

• Being ahead is always good

• But is it good enough for your riding?

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How many votes do you need

• There is a right answer

• The “other guy” +1

Vote Goals

• How many votes to win?

• Things to look at:– Traditional support of parties– Turnout

• Every plan needs a vote goal

West Vancouver –Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country

West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country

Party Votes Percentage

Conservative 22,891 36.0%

Liberal 23,867 37.5%

NDP 12,766 20.1%

Green 3,966 6.2%

Other 145 0.2%

Turnout List: 93,360 68.3%

West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country

• Expect the list to grow: Say 94,000

• Conservatives win with higher turnout

• So assume 70%

• That means 65,800 votes will be cast

West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country

• Who is the main competition?

• The Liberals.

• What is the minimum for each smaller party?– NDP – 15%– Green – 5.5%

• That leaves: 79.5%

• So to win we need: 79.5% / 2 = 39.8%

• 65,800 voters

• Need 39.8%

• So we need: 26,188 votes

• Round up to 26,250

West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country

Reconnaissance

Researching your riding

Types of Research

• Local Election Results Analysis

• Demographics and the MLS

• Neighbourhoods

What is Local Election Results Analysis

• We examine:– Past Results

– Changing support for different parties

– Results for elections of different levels of government

Why do Local Election Results Analysis

• The same reason you do anything in elections: To Win

• You should do it if:– You LOST last time – it will show you what

happened and maybe a strategy to win the next time

– You WON last time – you need to know why you won, and how to do it again!

Why do Local Election Results Analysis

• It can show where you are strong and weak.

• Understand exactly what you have to do to get more votes next time.

• Anticipate the strategy of other parties.

The best way to understand…

• Is to map…

• Results

• Trends

• Turnout

Why we look at the numbers

• Because the conventional wisdom is usually wrong

• What people “know,” especially journalists reflects their biases and hopes not the facts

• When you KNOW what happened, you can plan to win next time

Demographics and the MLS

• Poll by Poll demographics do exist

• The trouble is they look like this…

Demographics

• Without context demographics are worse than useless, they are confusing

• There is no holy grail demographic that will point your way to victory.

• Unless you have a statistician on staff…

The MLS

Regional Centres

Suburbs

Neighbourhood profiles

What should I look for?

• Middle Class – with kids, close to schools

• Older Neighbourhoods with lot of Seniors

• The “Respectable” Lower Middle Class

• First time homeowners

The Politics of Division

Identifying a winning coalition

Four key groupsMainstream Families

Younger Men Empty Nesters

Retired Women

Targets

• These are the people you need

• These are the people you must communicate with– At the doors– On the phones– By mail– With literature

Suburbs and SeniorsThe Battleground

Need to gain from LibsAnd keep turnout up

Lower Middle Class and Worse

“The Secret Weapon”

Find the Conservatives and drive up turnout (low Green appeal)

Well Off Elites“No fly zone”

Hold our ownKeep turnout low

Write out your coalition

• In the previous example the coalition was:– Suburban home owners, especially parents– Seniors– Lower middle class, get them out to vote

• Keep it broad, otherwise it never adds up

More Vote Goals

• Now you know your general plan AND how many votes you need to win.

• Need poll by poll vote goals

• Step 1: Neighbourhoods

• Step 2: Neighbourhood vote goals

• Step 3: Divide by polls

STEP 1

STEP 2

1101 votes

266 votes

492 votes

723 votes174 votes

842 votes

476 votes

1335 votes

714 votes

776 votes1005 votes

903 votes

975 votes

674 votes

1284 votes

923 votes

774 votes

265 votes790 votes

106 votes

1242 votes

Lessons and Approaches

• Higher Turnout works for Conservatives

• Go where the votes are

• Talk to those you need, ignore everyone else

• Two approaches to getting more votes– Look at polls and then where target groups live– Look at likely polls and who lives there

Poll by Poll

• Assign votes within each neighbourhood based on the proportion of Conservative votes there last time

• Take into account local factors

• Some polls may have a smaller goal than you got last time

Poll by Poll

From vote goals to targets

• So now you know what you need in every poll.

• So what? – Where do you doorknock?– Where do you phone?– Where do you send literature?

Your voter ID

Look at current supporters

Gap targetingPoll Vote Goal Current Support Gap

1 80 51 29

2 96 84 12

3 124 64 60

4 148 122 26

5 91 86 5

6 72 28 44

7 48 19 31

8 88 28 60

9 107 80 27

Gap targetingPoll Vote Goal Current Support Gap

1 80 51 29

2 96 84 12

3 124 64 60

4 148 122 26

5 91 86 5

6 72 28 44

7 48 19 31

8 88 28 60

9 107 80 27

Gap targetingPoll Vote Goal Current Support Gap

1 80 51 29

2 96 84 12

3 124 64 60

4 148 122 26

5 91 86 5

6 72 28 44

7 48 19 31

8 88 28 60

9 107 80 27

Gap targetingPoll Vote Goal Current Support Gap

1 80 51 29

2 96 84 12

3 124 64 60

4 148 122 26

5 91 86 5

6 72 28 44

7 48 19 31

8 88 28 60

9 107 80 27

Gap targetingPoll Vote Goal Current Support Gap

1 80 51 29

2 96 84 12

3 124 64 60

4 148 122 26

5 91 86 5

6 72 28 44

7 48 19 31

8 88 28 60

9 107 80 27

Targets

• Sort your polls by the gap

• The polls with the biggest gap are where you– Phone – Doorknock– Use the candidate– Send some literature

• Re-order your targets every three or four days

Persuasion

• Q. How do you find the undecideds?

• A. From your voter ID

• Do special canvass with the candidate in those polls with high vote goals of just the undecideds

Literature and Ads

• Identify issues for the top target groups

• Send it to where they live

• To better target hit those polls where you need it most – big gaps and big vote goals

• Do NOT buy newspaper ads

Ignoring People

• Because you know who you need, you know who to ignore

• This means that be strategically divisive or “controversial” is a good plan

• Do it carefully, but if you know your coalition it can be very effective

“Stay on Target” and the real enemy

Getting the votes you need to win

The story so far

• You know the number of votes to win

• You know the types of people you care about

• You know where to canvass, phone and send literature

• Now all you have to do, is actually do it!

The real enemy

A word on Candidates

• You have a good plan, stick to it!

• Candidates like people, you don’t have to

• Candidates will try and get you to change your plan, because someone “told” them

• They are susceptible to the slightest criticism

Stay on Target

• That doesn’t mean be rigid

• You have to be flexible, your vote goals will change

• Listen to what is happening and watch the national numbers and what HQ is saying

• But don’t change at a whim

Conclusion

• Figure out how many votes you need to win

• Research your riding – who lives there?

• Identify which groups you need and where they live

• Communicate with them

• Stay on target

Questions

If you have further questions, comments or abuse, send me an email:

hamishmarshall@conservative.ca