gErmaNy markET rEPOrT - colliers.de · markET rEPOrT INDUSTRIALAND LOGISTICS MARKETS OVERVIEW 2019...

gErmaNy

markET rEPOrTINDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS MARKETSOVERVIEW

2019 / 2020

https://www.colliers.de/

Fueled by ongoing high demand on the

German commercial real estate invest-

ment market and the low interest rate en-

vironment, industrial and logistics assets

continued to perform very well in 2019,

once again ranking as the third strongest

asset class in Germany after office and

retail. Investors poured a total of €6.6bn

into German industrial and logistics as-

sets over the course year. Although this

marks a yoy decrease, the drop can be

contributed to the current scarcity of

product. Foreign investors again showed

their enthusiasm for German logistics as-

sets, generating roughly 60% of annual

transaction volume. The largest logistics

deal of the year, the Maximus portfolio, in-

volved a foreign investor. Singapore’s

sovereign wealth fund (GIC) acquired the

28-asset pan-European portfolio at the

end of the year. German investors contin-

ued to target their investment at light in-

dustrial properties in 2019, with the asset

class accounting for about one third of

their total transaction volume.

Despite the fact that investment activity

remains high, we are still seeing a short-

age of first-rate core assets. With land

hard to come by in Germany’s 8 major in-

dustrial and logistics markets, new-build

development activity is likely to remain

subdued, putting a cap on additional sup-

ply. This trend was particularly evident in

2019 take-up results, which were down

18% yoy in the country’s top 8 regions.

Berlin (+12%), Munich (+13%) and Leipzig

(+1%) were the only markets to post yoy

increases in take-up. Other markets such

as Hamburg (– 31%), Düsseldorf (– 31%)

and Stuttgart (– 43%) experienced steep

drops due to a lack of large-scale leases.

Suitable land sites for new-build con-

struction are a rare find in Germany’s

core markets and are likely to remain

scarce going forward.

As a result, developers are looking to snap

up sites as quickly as possible and turning

to speculative development and renova-

tion of stock industrial sites. Companies

and property developers are also becom-

ing more flexible when it comes to their

search criteria, which puts other logistics

regions where supply is more extensive

and affordable in the running.

Demand for logistics assets will remain

high thanks the continued stability of the

German economy and ongoing e-com-

merce boom. With land and construction

costs on the rise, property developers will

need to secure suitable land at an early

stage in order to fill their project pipeline.

The smaller logistics regions around Ger-

many’s secondary and tertiary cities in

the greater vicinity of the country’s major

logistics regions will also benefit from the

current market situation and see growing

demand going forward.

Peter Kunz FRICSHEAD OF INDUSTRIAL

& LOGISTICS EMEA

[email protected]

NO LAND IN SIGHT

3CONTENTS

| 2019 / 2020 Industrial and Logistics M

arkets Overview

| Colliers International

Logistics in Germany 4

Logistics Regions in Germany 5

Market Data 6

Leasing Market

Germany 8

Berlin / Brandenburg 11

Düsseldorf 14

Frankfurt/Rhine-Main 17

Hamburg 20

Cologne 23

Leipzig 26

Munich 29

Stuttgart 32

Investment 35

Glossary 38

Contacts /Locations 39

CONTENTS

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Germany is one of the most attractive

logistics markets worldwide thanks to its

central location in Europe, excellent

infrastructure, high technological stand-

ards and excellent building quality. Logis-

tics is Germany’s third-largest economic

sector after the automotive industry

and retail. The market recorded roughly

€279bn in transaction volume in 2019.

Logistics properties have also become

the third strongest-performing asset

class on the German real estate invest-

ment market. The logistics sector

employs just over 3 million people but,

despite favorable performance, still fac-

es significant challenges.

Limited supply and a lack of skilled work-

ers are putting the brakes on the sector’s

growth. Companies on the lookout for

space are increasingly taking the availa-

bility of labor and local business tax

policies into consideration in their deci-

sions. Megatrends like e-commerce and

same-day delivery are boosting demand

for suitable core products in conurba-

tions. Despite the fact that new-build

construction activity is on the rise, it will

not be enough to meet the anticipated

demand for logistics space. As a result,

developers and tenants are being forced

to turn to the peripheral areas surround-

ing major conurbations.

Germany’s ongoing economic growth and

high consumer activity will continue to

boost demand for suitable logistics space.

Investors remain under considerable

pressure to invest and are showing in-

creasing interest in logistics assets in the

current low interest rate environment.

The smaller logistics regions will benefit

from shortage of space combined with

rising land and construction costs in the

country’s top markets going forward as

they enjoy comparatively moderate price

levels and offer more opportunities for

company expansion.

LOGISTICS IN GERMANY

5LOgiSTiCS rEgiONS iN gErm

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Industrial and Logistics Markets O

verview | C

olliers International LOGISTICS REGIONS IN GERMANY

71

7366

45

485

33

38

4

9

70

3 93

48

67

63

395

14

230

1

31

43

27

3924

2019

23 21

28

11

17

72

6

7

92

94

9596

81

5

8

6562

13

15

52

49

60

Nuremberg

5.00

4.50

230Stuttgart

6.50

5.20

300

Karlsruhe

5.70

4.80

200

Saarbrücken

4.35

3.30

85

Mönchen- gladbach

4.50

3.60

80

Düsseldorf

5.75

4.75

220

Leipzig

4.60

3.70

80

Hamburg

6.30

4.95

300

Erfurt

4.30

3.10

60

Hanover

5.10

4.20

95

Bremen

4.70

3.60

60

Gießen

4.20

3.50

75

Kassel / Bad Hersfeld

4.50

3.70

75

Cologne

5.80

4.50

180

5.50

4.30

110

Duisburg

5.40

4.50

160

Mannheim

Berlin

6.10

5.10

220

Rostock

Dresden

Zwickau

Regensburg

Trier

MünsterOsnabrück

BraunschweigWolfsburg

Bremerhaven

Ingolstadt

Frankfurt

Magdeburg

WürzburgAschaffenburg

6.50

5.40

330

4.70

4.15

100

Dortmund

Munich

7.15

6.70

400

Ulm / Neu-Ulm

4.75

3.90

130

Prime rent in € / sqm/month

∅ rent in €/sqm/month

Land price in €/sqm

DEF IN IT ION

Prime headline rents for logistics and distribution space:

> 3.000 sqm Class-A properties ( > 10 m under beam height, 2–3 docking gates/1.000 sqm, sprinkler system, share of office space < 10 %) in a prime location

Average rents for logistics and distribution space:

> 3.000 sqm with multifunctional usage ( > 7 m under beam height, 1–2 docking gates / 1.000 sqm, limited share of office space) in a traffic-favorable location

Land price:

Undeveloped commercial/industrial areas, ( > 20.000 sqm, mainly flat and rectangular, no / limited usage restrictions)

Status January 2020

Airport

Freight transport centre

Harbour

Augsburg

5.70

4.50

125





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Location informationGermany Berlin Düsseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Cologne Leipzig Munich Stuttgart

Population in 1.000 83,019 3,645 619 753 1,841 1,086 588 1,472 635

Employees Paying Social Security Contributions in 1.000

33,407 1,528 424 602 996 583 273 897 426

Unemployment Rate in % 4.9 7.6 6.5 4.9 5.9 7.4 6.1 3.4 3.9

Per Capita Disposable Income in € 24,000 22,220 28,742 27,138 25,720 25,806 21,545 30,478 27,314

Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Land Statistical Offices, Federal Employment Agency, Nexiga GmbH

industrial & Logistics Leasing TOP 8 Berlin /

BrandenburgDüsseldorf Frankfurt /

Rhine-MainHamburg Cologne Leipzig Munich Stuttgart

Take-up 2019 in sqm 2,429,900 474,900 217,900 467,200 332,500 192,300 346,700 227,000 171,400

Change year-on-year in % – 18% 12% – 31% – 28% – 31% – 22% 1% 13% – 43%

Leasing performance 2019 in sqm 1,931,600 451,800 117,100 414,400 268,300 181,000 166,000 202,500 130,500

Change year-on-year in % – 24% 40% – 60% – 26% – 32% – 23% – 40% 1% – 49%

Forecast for 2020

Number of Deals 620 151 70 72 70 47 32 95 83

Average Area Size in sqm 4,730 3,145 3,112 6,580 4,750 3,738 11,005 2,389 3,117

Strongest Branch

Prime Rent in € / sqm / month 6.10 5.75 6.50 6.30 5.80 4.60 7.15 6.50

Forecast for 2020

Average Rent in € / sqm / month 5.10 4.75 5.40 5.00 4.50 3.70 6.70 5.20

Forecast for 2020

Trade Production & Manufacturing Transport & Logistics

7m

arkET DaTa | 2019 / 2020


verview | C

olliers International

industrial & Logistics investment – TOP 8*TOP 8 Berlin Düsseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Cologne Leipzig Munich Stuttgart

Transaction Volume 2019 in m € 2,518 414 413 493 267 129 190 493 119

Change year-on-year in % 1% – 36% 0% – 2% 6% – 37% 692% 114% – 45%

Forecast for 2020

* Refers to the defined logistics market areas

industrial & Logistics investment – germany2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Transaction Volume 2019 in m € 3,592 3,972 4,579 8,662 6,814 6,566

Change year-on-year in % 57 11 15 89 – 21 – 4

Industrial Properties Share in % 27 32 31 12 42 28

Logistics Properties Share in % 73 68 69 88 58 72

Share in the Commercial Real Estate Market in %

9 7 9 15 11 9

Share by International Investors in % 62 53 38 65 47 60

Portfolio Transactions in % 50 47 40 71 56 40

Largest Buyer Group in % Open-ended real estate

funds / Special funds

Opportunity funds / Private

equity funds

Asset managers /

Fund managers

Open-ended real estate

funds / Special funds

Asset managers /

Fund managers

Asset managers /

Fund managers

33 22 30 33 45 40

Largest Seller Group in % Property developers

Property developers

Property developers

Asset managers /

Fund managers

Property developers

Asset managers /

Fund managers31 20 26 46 30 26

Gross Initial Yield in % for Class-A properties

6.40 5.97 5.50 4.65 4.50 4.20





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Take-up

Just over 2.4 million sqm was let to tenants

or built/purchased by owner-occupiers in

Germany’s 8 largest logistics hubs in 2019.

That reflects a yoy drop of roughly 18% for

the overall market. If we exclude owner-

occupier activity, which puts results at

1.9 million sqm, take-up was down 24%

yoy. Results, however, varied from region

to region. The Düsseldorf (– 31%), Rhine-

Main (– 28%), Hamburg (– 31%), Cologne

(– 22%) and Stuttgart (– 43%) regions

posted steep drops in take-up with consid-

erably less availability while Berlin (+12%),

Munich (+13%) and Leipzig (+1%) contin-

ued to experience ongoing momentum

thanks to a number of major leases signed.

Deals of similar scale were absent in Ger-

many’s other logistics hubs. More leases

were recorded in 2019 than in the previous

year, however (620 in total, +9%), reflect-

ing the fact that demand for industrial and

logistics space remains high. Smaller units

of under 3,000 sqm were even more

popular than in the previous year. The

year’s largest-scale leases were signed by

online furniture retailer Wayfair for

90,500 sqm in Lich in the northern Rhine-

Main area, Amazon for 31,000 sqm in

Schönefeld south of Berlin and automotive

group BMW for around 32,000 sqm in

Vaterstetten (Munich).

FAST FACTS TOP 82019 2018 Change

Take-up in sqm 2,429,900 2,968,200 – 18%

Leasing Performance in sqm 1,931,600 2,544,900 – 24%

Owner-Occupiers in % 21% 14% – 18%

Number of Deals 620 571 9%

Average Area Size in sqm 4,730 4,862 – 3%

0

100

200

300

400

500

Stuttgart

Munich

Leipzig

Cologne

Hamburg

Frankfurt

Düsseldorf

Berlin

up to 500 0%501–1,000 4%

1,001–3,000 16%

above 10,000 43%

3,001–5,000 14%

5,001–10,000 23%

Leasing Performance Owner-Occupiers

23

101

53 64

11

181

25 41

452

117

414

268

181 166202

130

Others 18%

Logistics ServiceProviders 28%

Production &Manufacturing

Companies 28%

TradingCompanies 26%

4

5

6

7

8

20192018201720162015

Cologne Leipzig StuttgartMunich

HamburgFrankfurtDüsseldorfBerlin

LEASING MARKET GERMANY

Figure 1: Take-up in 1,000 sqm Figure 2: Take-up by Size Category in %

9LEaSiNg m

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arkets Overview


Supply and Demand

Although demand for industrial and logis-

tics properties remains high, the scarcity

of development sites and rising land pric-

es, particularly in the large-scale segment

of over 10,000 sqm, is putting a damper on

take-up (– 39%). Take-up results in this

segment were down in markets such as

Hamburg and Frankfurt, although results

in those markets were bolstered by de-

mand for units of up to 5,000 sqm (+27%).

Property developers are also beginning to

focus their activities on locations outside

Germany’s 8 top markets, as these offer

more attractive prices and greater availa-

bility of land. Pre-leasing rates are quite

high in the top 8 markets, a factor that

continues to encourage speculative devel-

opment. More and more developers are

also looking into brownfield development

as a way to bring space to market.

rents

With a few exceptions, prime and average

rents in top locations continued to climb

due to low supply and ongoing high

demand. Prime rents in Frankfurt am Main

remained stable at €6.50 per sqm. High-

priced leases signed for new-build space

continue to boost prime rent levels yoy

despite lower take-up results. Prime rents

in Munich rose 2% yoy to a current €7.15

per sqm while Berlin (€6.10 per sqm, +7%),

Hamburg (€6.30 per sqm, +5%) and

Cologne (€5.80 per sqm, +5%) saw even

more significant increases.

Others 18%



Companies 28%


4

5

6

7

8

20192018201720162015



Figure 3: Take-up by Branch Share in % Figure 4: Prime Rents in the TOP 8 in € / sqm





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Summary and Outlook

In view of the current uncertainties around

automotive production and the ongoing

scarcity of development sites in Germany’s

top 8 regions combined with growing

demand for city logistics driven by the on-

going boom in e-commerce, 2020 is likely

to be another average year on Germany’s

top 8 industrial and logistics real estate

markets. Based on these general condi-

tions, we can expect brownfield sites to

become increasingly popular in prime

locations. At the same time, a number of

companies flexible enough to do so are

likely to turn to nearby markets that boast

greater availability. Such markets include

centrally located regions with good infra-

structure such as Kassel/Bad Hersfeld,

the eastern Ruhr region (especially Dort-

mund), Hanover, the Rhine-Neckar region

and cities such as Augsburg in southern

Germany.

3

4

5

6

7

20192018201720162015



Figure 5: Average Rents in the TOP 8 in € / sqm

11BErLiN / BraNDENBurg


arkets Overview


FAST FACTS2019 2018 Change

Take-up in sqm 474,900 422,500 12%

Leasing Performance in sqm 451,800 322,300 40%


Prime Rent* in €/sqm/month 6.10 5.70 7%

Average Rent in €/sqm/month 5.10 5.00 2%

*achievable top rent in new buildings

Take-up according to Location

Submarket Take-up in sqm Share

1 Center 15,100 3%

2 City North 39,800 8%

3 City East 35,200 8%

4 City South 73,000 15%

5 City West 25,600 6%

6 Periphery North 45,300 10%

7 Periphery East 14,200 3%

8 Airport Area BER 20,300 3%

9 Periphery South 164,000 35%

10 Periphery West 42,400 9%

Total 474,900 100

BERLIN / BRANDENBURG





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0

100

200

300

400

500

20192018201720162015 Average 2015 – 2019 Whole year

451.4

352.7

424.8

474.9

422.5

Take-up

The Berlin industrial and logistics market

registered total take-up of roughly

474,900 sqm, up 12% yoy and exceeding

2015’s record result of 451,400 sqm.

Take-up results excluding owner-occupi-

ers were particularly strong. 145 leases

were signed for a total of 451,800 sqm

in 2019, reflecting a significant 40% yoy

increase and marking a new record result.

Markets such as Stuttgart (– 43%),

Frankfurt (– 28%) and Hamburg (– 31%)

experienced a sharp downward trend in

annual take-up in contrast, putting Berlin

and the Leipzig region at the fore of

Germany’s logistics hubs. Notable deals

included leases signed by Amazon for

roughly 31,000 sqm in Schönefeld and

Microvast for around 16,000 sqm in

Ludwigsfelde as well as Kühne & Nagel’s

lease of 15,500 sqm in Oberkrämer near

Oranienburg.

Supply and Demand

While leases signed for units of over

10,000 sqm accounted for around 50% of

take-up in the previous year, the share

claimed by this segment dropped by

almost half in 2019 (122,400 sqm, or

26%). The Amazon deal was the only one

to exceed the 20,000 sqm mark compared

to five such deals recorded in the segment

in 2018. With the availability of units of

this size continuing to drop and develop-

ment potential already exhausted in some

hot spots, we do not expect the situation

to relax any time soon. Small-scale units

(up to 3,000 sqm), however, recorded an

increase in take-up compared to the pre-

vious year. A total of 99 leases were

signed in this segment, reflecting a mar-

ket share of 28% (around 130,700 sqm).

As such, the segment accounted for

around two thirds of all leases signed in

2019.

Take-up according to Size Category

Size in sqm Take-up in sqm Share

up to 500 1,000 0%

501 – 1,000 27,900 6%

1,001 – 3,000 101,800 21%

3,001 – 5,000 94,600 20%

5,001 – 10,000 127,200 27%

above 10,000 122,400 26%

Total 474,900 100%

LEaSiNg

Figure 1: Take-up in 1.000 sqm

13BErLiN / BraNDENBurg


arkets Overview


0

100

200

300

400

500


451.4

352.7

424.8

474.9

422.5

Others 18%



Production & ManufacturingCompanies 23%

5.00 5.00 5.00

4.004.25

4.50

5.70

5.00

6.10

5.10

3

4

5

6

7

20192018201720162015 Average Rent Prime Rent

In terms of tenant breakdown, retailers

contributed slightly less to overall take-up

in 2019, a result that can be attributed to

the lack of high-volume deals in the pe-

riphery. Retailers accounted for a total of

142,500 sqm in take-up, down 30% yoy.

This decrease, however, is mainly the

result of the limited availability of units

over 10,000 sqm as demand in the region

remains high.

rents

Ongoing high demand is also evident in

the current rent trend. No other region

has seen a comparable increase in prime

rents in the past two years. Some of the

logistics space over 3,000 sqm in the

municipal area is currently going for

€6.90 per sqm. And, as availability within

city limits grows increasingly scarce, we

could see prime rents continue to rise.

On the overall market (including the

periphery), prime rents currently come

to €6.10 per sqm, up 40 cents yoy.

Average rents rose by 10 cents to €5.10

per sqm at year-end 2019.

Outlook

Fresh supply will be hitting the market in

2020 thanks to a number of ongoing prop-

erty developments in the periphery.

However, the supply bottleneck in the

municipal area may push prices up even

further and prevent them from leveling

off. Demand for small-scale light industri-

al space is also going to pick up in 2020

with prices increasing as a result as prac-

tically no space is currently available for

immediate tenancy. In light of the current

supply situation, we expect 2020 take-up

to reach levels similar to those recorded

in the previous year.

Figure 2: Take-up by Branch Share in % Figure 3: Prime and Average Rents in ¤/sqm





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1 Düsseldorf 40,000 21%

2 Neuss 15,700 22%

3 Kaarst 1,200 1%

4 Willich 0 8%

5 Krefeld 16,900 20%

6 Meerbusch 0 0%

7 Ratingen 13,000 12%

8 Erkrath 500 0%

9 Hilden 10,800 0%

10 Langenfeld 5,000 3%

11 Dormagen 53,900 9%

12 Grevenbroich 15,100 3%

13 Korschenbroich 0 0%

14 Mönchengladbach 45,800 1%

Total 217,900 100%

DÜSSELDORF

NeussMönchengladbach Kaarst

Meerbusch

Krefeld

Willich

Viersen

Korschenbroich

Dormagen

Grevenbroich

Hilden

Erkrath

Mettmann

LangenfeldRheinland

Leverkusen

Ratingen

Mühlheim an der Ruhr

2

1

4

6

5

3

7

8

9

10

Düsseldorf

11

12

13

14

44

59

4040

57

524

52

46

59

57

3

1

6144

61

46540

52

44


Take-up in sqm 217,900 317,600 – 31%

Leasing Performance in sqm 117,100 295,600 – 60%





15DüSSELDOrf


arkets Overview


Take-up

The Düsseldorf industrial and logistics

market recorded 217,900 sqm in take-up in

2019, around 100,000 sqm less than in the

previous year (– 31%). Annual results came

in well below expectations (– 36%) com-

pared to the 5-year average (342,500 sqm).

The bottleneck in the region becomes

particularly obvious if we look at take-up

excluding owner-occupiers, with only

117,100 sqm taken up by tenants in 2019.

This reflects a yoy decrease of 60%.

Only 4 deals were signed for units over

10,000 sqm compared to more than twice

as many in 2018. The largest deals posted

in 2019 included the Hoyer GmbH owner-

occupier development in Dormagen

encompassing roughly 50,000 sqm of

new-build space and the ABC-Logistik

development on a brownfield site near the

Port of Düsseldorf (around 11,600 sqm

hall space). Demand for units starting at

5,000 sqm remains high, driven by the

prevailing tenant structure. However, the

supply of suitable development sites

continues to dwindle along with the

amount of available space able to meet

modern standards in terms of equipment,

location and size.

Supply and Demand

Take-up of units ranging from 5,001 sqm

to 10,000 sqm saw the steepest drop,

down yoy from 24% to 9%. Units featuring

less than 5,000 sqm accounted for rough-

ly 40% of total take-up (about 87,500 sqm,

+41%). This increase shows that the

Düsseldorf market continues to be

characterized by exceptionally high de-

mand combined with limited availability,

particularly in prime locations. That

means there is a very good chance that

any space to come available will be

quickly absorbed by the market. The trend

towards speculative property develop-

ment also reflects current excess de-

mand. Supply in the large-scale segment

is not sufficient to meet that demand due

to a lack of space available for immediate

LEaSiNg

0

100

200

300

400

500


346.7 343.8

435.7

317.6

217.9



up to 500 4,400 2%

501 – 1,000 15,000 7%

1,001 – 3,000 40,100 18%

3,001 – 5,000 28,000 13%

5,001 – 10,000 19,500 9%

above 10,000 110,900 51%

Total 217,900 100%






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Others 26%




5.40 5.40 5.40

4.50 4.50 4.50

5.75

4.75

5.75

4.75

3

4

5

6


tenancy at stock properties, which means

demand is primarily being met with

new-build developments. However, land

sites zoned for new-builds in prime

locations are in limited supply, which is

increasing tenant willingness to turn to

peripheral locations within the region.

The high pre-leasing rate at new-build

developments is also an indication

that there just is not enough space

available on the market at the moment

to adequately meet demand.

rents

Prime and average rents are currently

stable with no significant increases likely

despite excess demand. We can also ex-

pect prime rents for units over 3,000 sqm

to remain stable over the course of the

year. We may see an increase in prices

for modern space (light industrial)

at business parks within city limits, as

companies are willing to pay more for

location and equipment in some cases.

Prime rents for this quality of space

within city limits currently come to €7.00

per sqm.

Outlook

The lack of development sites is currently

being further exacerbated by the city’s

high requirements on companies in terms

of jobs, taxes and volume. Companies and

property developers are therefore likely to

intensify their interest in locations out-

side currently coveted submarkets such

as Neuss, Krefeld and Mönchengladbach.

Chances are also good that companies

will continue to build their own logistics

properties in light of the new-build supply

bottleneck in the Düsseldorf core area.


17fraNkfurT / rH

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arkets Overview


Others 26%




5.40 5.40 5.40

4.50 4.50 4.50

5.75

4.75

5.75

4.75

3

4

5

6



Take-up in sqm 467,200 650,200 – 28%


Number of Deals 72 83 – 13%






1 Frankfurt am Main 25,200 5%

2 Offenbach 15,500 3%

3 Darmstadt 27,100 6%

4 Groß-Gerau 131,300 28%

5 Mainz + Wiesbaden 27,400 6%

6 Main-Taunus-District 20,800 5%

7 Hochtaunus-District 5,000 1%

8 Gießen 117,200 25%

9 Wetteraukreis 4,600 1%

10 Main-Kinzig-District 85,800 18%

11 Aschaffenburg 7,300 2%

Total 467,200 100%

FRANKFURT / RHINE-MAIN

2

1

4

6

7

5

3

8

9

10

11

7

66

5

45

485

480

66

3

81

67

66

671

63

61

661

Frankfurt am Main

Gelnhausen

Offenbach am Main

Dietzenbach

KarlstadtAschaffenburg

Miltenberg

Heppenheim(Bergstraße) Erbach

DarmstadtGroß-Gerau

Alzey

MainzIngelheim am Rhein

WiesbadenHofheim am Taunus

Bad Homburg vor der Höhe

Friedberg (Hessen)

Limburg an der Lahn

Gießen

Wetzlar Fulda

Lauterbach (Hessen)

Butzbach

Hanau

Gernsheim





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200

300

400

500

600

700

800


720.2

650.2

467.2

584.0

463.0

Take-up

The Frankfurt industrial and logistics

market generated 467,200 sqm in total

take-up in 2019, reflecting the weakest

result ever recorded and coming in

around 24% shy of the 5-year average

(619,000 sqm). This drop in take-up

can be primarily attributed to a lack of

large-scale transactions in the space

segment of over 20,000 sqm and to

the increasing shortage of logistics

development sites, which tend to involve

long lead times.

The most notable transactions recorded

in the region in 2019 include the leases

signed by online furniture retailer Wayfair

for 90,500 sqm in the Lich submarket of

Gießen, logistics service provider Zufall

for 35,000 sqm in Flieden in the Main-

Kinzig-Kreis district and Geis Industrie-

Service GmbH in Rodenbach (32,000 sqm)

as well as two new-build developments in

Gernsheim for Amazon (20,000 sqm) and

Sonepar (26,000 sqm).

Supply and Demand

Leases signed for over 10,000 sqm once

again contributed the lion’s share to total

results, generating more than half of total

take-up (59%, or 278,900 sqm). However,

this reflects a significant drop from the

previous year’s 75%, or 488,100 sqm.

Although demand for units of over

10,000 sqm remains stable, the supply

of developable sites is dwindling and

increasingly less space in this segment is

being added to the market or becoming

available for immediate tenancy. As such,

more and more companies are turning to

peripheral locations in the Rhine-Main

region, including Gießen, Mainz and

Aschaffenburg, and are expanding their

search radius to the edges of the Frank-

furt core area. Several property develop-

ments are in planning for the new year

or are already under construction, and

we can expect these developments to

address the continued shortage of space

to some extent. Current developments

include the Hillwood and Nvelop business



up to 500 2,500 1%

501 – 1,000 8,800 2%

1,001 – 3,000 32,800 7%

3,001 – 5,000 36,700 8%

5,001 – 10,000 107,500 23%

above 10,000 278,900 59%

Total 467,200 100%

LEaSiNg


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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


720.2

650.2

467.2

584.0

463.0

Others 11%



Production & ManufacturingCompanies 13% 6.50

6.30 6.30 6.40

5.40

5.105.20 5.20

6.50

5.20

4

5

6

7


park development in Erlensee, which will

comprise 4 construction phases encom-

passing a total area of 60,000 sqm. Start

of construction on phase 1 is scheduled

for spring 2020.

rents

The excess demand we are currently

seeing on the market is pushing up prices

for stock space, in some cases to rent

levels typically paid for new-build proper-

ties. Average rents experienced another

increase as a result to a current €5.40

per sqm with prime rents stable at €6.50

per sqm in the core locations around

Frankfurt Airport. That puts Frankfurt and

Stuttgart (€6.50 per sqm) in second place

following Munich (€7.15 per sqm) in a

national comparison.

Outlook

New space will be added to the market in

2020 thanks to several property develop-

ments currently underway. Demand is

set to remain stable and we can expect

several major deals to be signed over the

course of the year. We can also look for

the trend towards shorter lease terms

to continue in 2020, as a number of ten-

ants signed leases with terms of under

5 years in 2019.






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1 City West 12,200 4%

2 City North-West 4,800 1%

3 City North-East 6,300 2%

4 City East 52,000 16%

5 City South 124,000 37%

6 Periphery North-West 25,700 8%

7 Periphery North-East 69,400 21%

8 Periphery East 26,600 8%

9 Periphery South-East 5,900 2%

10 Periphery South-West 5,600 1%

Total 332,500 100%

HAMBURG

2

1

4

6

5

3

7

8

9

10

24

25

1

7

39

261

253

255

7

2123

GVZ

RellingenEllerbek

Tangstedt

Tornesch

Halstenbek

Schenefeld

Wedel

Quickborn Bargteheide

Ahrensburg

Stapelfeld

Siek

Braak

Glinde

OststeinbekAumühle

WitzhaveBarsbüttelBarmbek

Buxtehude

Neu Wulmstorf

HittfeldStelle

Hollenstedt

Wenzendorf

Buchholz in der Nordheide

Hamburg

Winsen (Luhe)

Geesthacht

Pinneberg

Billwerder

BillbrookMoorfleet

SteinwerderWaltershof

Moorburg

Hausbruch HarburgAllermöhe

Willhelmsburg

Rahlstedt

Ohlsdorf

Eidelstedt

Stellingen

Niendorf

Rissen

Lurup

Langenhorn

Schnelsen

Norderstedt

FAST FACTS2019 2018 %

Take-up in sqm 332,500 484,600 – 31%






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100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


593,4

668,8

460,9 484,6

332,5

Take-up

Hamburg’s industrial and logistics real

estate market closed out 2019 with total

take-up of 332,500 sqm, the weakest

result posted in the past seven years.

Although tenant and owner-occupier

activity have generated take-up results

of over 450,000 sqm in the past several

years, even posting more than

668,800 sqm in 2016, 2019’s year-end

result came in at just half. This considera-

ble drop in take-up can primarily be

attributed to the absence of large-scale

deals signed for over 10,000 sqm.

Although units of this size accounted for

almost 60% of total take-up in the previ-

ous year, 2019 results put their share

at just one third (roughly 109,100 sqm).

Large-scale leases recorded in 2019

include those signed by logistics service

provider ULD United Logistics & Distribu-

tion for around 30,000 sqm on Dradenau-

straße in Waltershof (port area) and by

Nutwork for almost 12,000 sqm of logis-

tics space in Völlhöfner Weiden. The start

of construction on Wiska headquarters in

Kaltenkirchen in northern Hamburg was

one of the few owner-occupier deals to

have a significant impact on the market.

The first construction phase (around

10,000 sqm) will primarily focus on the

logistics and production areas. The

facility is scheduled to be up and running

by early 2021.

Supply and Demand

The Hamburg market is currently unable

to meet demand due to a current lack of

space suitable for large-scale logistics

development. Industrial and logistics

space is particularly hard to come by in

the logistics hotspots located in the south

of the city as well as in the commercial

district of Billbrook to the east. The num-

ber of new-builds available for immediate

tenancy dropped drastically in 2019. As a

result, companies will have to wait for

property developments to be completed

or stock space to come available. Only a



up to 500 0 0%

501 – 1,000 1,600 0%

1,001 – 3,000 49,900 15%

3,001 – 5,000 69,400 21%

5,001 – 10,000 102,500 31%

above 10,000 109,100 33%

Total 332,500 100%

LEaSiNg






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Others 7%




5.80 5.80 5.80

4.604.75

4.85

6.00

4.85

6.30

5.00

4

5

6

7


handful of new-build developments are

scheduled for completion in the foreseea-

ble future. The Mach 2 speculative

development in Hamburg-Wilhelmsburg

is expected to add space to the market

in the coming 12 months. Developer

Fourparx and investor AEW Europe are

planning to build a new type of logistics

property with two levels and a total of

over 100,000 sqm of modern hall space.

rents

Rent trends reflect the tense relationship

between supply and demand that current-

ly dominates the market with prime and

average rents posting another yoy in-

crease in 2019. Prime rent for modern

logistics space of over 3,000 sqm came

to €6.30 per sqm at year-end, up consid-

erably by 30 cents yoy. That puts Ham-

burg along with Berlin among the markets

to post the highest rent increases last

year.

Outlook

Demand is set to remain high in 2020 with

competition for available units intensify-

ing as a result. Large-scale leases are

again on the horizon with the listing of the

Mach 2 development, which is scheduled

for completion in August 2021. However,

2020 take-up results are unlikely to match

the average of the past 5 years (around

531,500 sqm).


23COLOgNE


arkets Overview


Others 7%




5.80 5.80 5.80

4.604.75

4.85

6.00

4.85

6.30

5.00

4

5

6

7



Take-up in sqm 192,300 248,100 – 22%








1 Cologne 36,800 19%

2 Leverkusen 0 0%

3 Bergisch Gladbach 0 0%

4 Rösrath 0 0%

5 Airport Area Cologne/Bonn 0 0%

6 Troisdorf 34,100 18%

7 Niederkassel 0 0%

8 Wesseling 1,000 1%

9 Brühl 0 0%

10 Hürth 0 0%

11 Frechen 17,100 9%

12 Pulheim 27,600 14%

13 Kerpen 46,400 24%

14 Bergheim 11,300 6%

15 Bedburg 18,000 9%

Total 192,300 100%

COLOGNE

2

1

4

6

5

3

789

10

Köln11

12

13

14

15 Leverkusen

Euskirchen

Düren

Bonn

Troisdorf

Flughafen Köln/Bonn

Rösrath

Niederkassel

Wesseling

Brühl

Hürth

Frechen

Kerpen

PulheimBedburg

GVZ

Bergheim

Bergisch Gladbach

542

3

5957

46

46

540

44

61

61

565

562

560

59

555

535

4 559

4

1

3





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150

200

250

300


167,4

199,4 198,2

248,1

192,3

Take-up

Cologne’s industrial and logistics real

estate market finished out 2019 with total

take-up (including owner-occupiers) of

192,300 sqm, down 22% yoy (2018:

248,100 sqm). The market was also una-

ble to match the previous year’s result

excluding owner-occupiers (– 23%).

Similar to Germany’s other top 8 industri-

al and logistics markets, this drop in

take-up can be primarily attributed to the

absence of large-scale leases. This trend

can also be seen in the number of deals

signed. Although more leases were

signed in 2019 than in the previous year

(+27%), many of them involved small and

medium-sized units. Leases signed for

between 5,001 – 10,000 sqm accounted for

almost one third of total take-up, twice as

much as in 2018. Units of over 10,000 sqm

also generated roughly one third of total

take-up (60,200 sqm). The share claimed

by this segment, however, was considera-

bly higher in the previous year at 44%

(2018: 108,200 sqm). The largest-scale

leases of the year included the lease

signed by logistics service provider Log-

win (17,000 sqm) in Kerpen, the expansion

of industrial company Gerflor involving

just under 9,000 sqm in Troisdorf and

completion of the renovation of Cologne’s

theaters (roughly 8,100 sqm).

Supply and Demand

New-build activity in Cologne was quite

solid compared to Germany’s other mar-

kets. A handful of speculative new-build

developments are currently underway in

the city’s sought-after locations, includ-

ing construction of LogPlaza Frechen en-

compassing 18,000 sqm of new-build

space west of the Rhine River. These

developments will boost supply in the city

as we continue into the new year. As

such, leases signed for new-build space

as well as pre-leasing activity also ac-

counted for roughly 50% of take-up in

2019. Developers continue to focus on

speculative projects as demand for indus-

trial and logistics space remains high and

tenants looking for units over 5,000 sqm



up to 500 400 0%

501 – 1,000 7,600 4%

1,001 – 3,000 41,600 22%

3,001 – 5,000 20,400 11%

5,001 – 10,000 62,100 32%

above 10,000 60,200 31%

Total 192,300 100%

LEaSiNg


25COLOgNE


arkets Overview


0

50

100

150

200

250

300


167,4

199,4 198,2

248,1

192,3

Others 32%



Companies 20%


5.005.20 5.20

4.004.20 4.20

5.50

4.50

5.80

4.50

3

4

5

6


are still coming up short-handed. Kerpen

recorded the highest demand in 2019 with

take-up at 46,400 sqm, up 30% yoy,

thanks in part to the large-scale lease

signed by Logwin mentioned above. The

Pulheim submarket managed to double

its take-up results yoy with roughly

27,600 sqm. Take-up within Cologne city

limits came to around 36,800 sqm. Al-

though this reflects a yoy increase of 23%,

these results are significantly down from

2016 (77,700 sqm) and 2017 (97,100 sqm).

The Prologis and Alcaro developments

in Cologne-Niehl and Cologne-Kalk could

potentially increase the supply of space

within Cologne city limits.

rents

Rents continued to rise over the course of

the year due to ongoing limited availability

and high construction costs, with modern

logistics space currently going for €5.80

per sqm in some cases. These prices,

however, are only being paid in locations

west of the Rhine within Cologne city

limits. Following the increase recorded in

Q4 2018, average rents remained stable at

€4.50 per sqm.

Outlook

In light of upcoming property develop-

ments planned in the Cologne periphery

and current land reserves, we expect

tension on the market to ease slightly in

terms of units starting at 5,000 sqm.

As such, we may see 2020 take-up

results not only match previous-year

levels but even exceed them.






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1 Leipzig 114,600 33%

2 District Leipzig 38,400 11%

3 Nordsachsen 6,300 2%

4 Wittenberg 12,600 4%

5 Dessau-Roßlau 0 0%

6 Anhalt-Bitterfeld 116,000 33%

7 Halle (Saale) 22,600 7%

8 Saalekreis 36,200 10%

Total 346,700 100%

LEIPZIG

GVZ

2

1

4

6

5

3

7

8

38

143

14

9

389

14

72

Leipzig

Magdeburg

Landkreis Leipzig

Nordsachsen

Saalekreis

Halle (Saale) Stadt

Anhalt-Bitterfeld

WittenbergDessau-Roßlau Stadt


Take-up in sqm 346,700 343,700 1%






27LEiPzig


arkets Overview


Take-up

The Leipzig industrial and logistics mar-

ket recorded total take-up of roughly

346,700 sqm in 2019, topping 2018’s re-

cord results by a few thousand square

meters (2018: 343,700 sqm). This increase

is even more impressive if we look at

long-term performance, with 2019 results

exceeding the 5-year average by an im-

pressive 43%. This increase can in part

be attributed to several large-scale

owner-occupier developments, including

retailer Rossman’s project (26,000 sqm)

in Landsberg (Saxony-Anhalt) and the

expansion of the site occupied by tech

manufacturer Tesvolt in Wittenberg

(around 12,000 sqm). The completion of

a paper factory in Sandersdorf-Brehna

(Anhalt-Bitterfeld district) for manufac-

turer Progroup AG deserves particular

mention. With a volume of over €460m,

the development was the largest invest-

ment project in Saxony-Anhalt in 2019.

Supply and Demand

Leases signed for units of over 10,000 sqm

accounted for roughly three quarters of

total take-up, including the lease signed

by an automotive company for around

23,300 sqm of new-build space at Segro

Logistics Park near Leipzig Airport and

the lease signed by intralogistics provider

Dematic for 18,000 sqm in Leipzig.

Despite the shortage of supply, particu-

larly for units over 5,000 sqm, there is

some stock space that is still available.

These properties, however, are not up to

current standards and are therefore

having a difficult time finding tenants

despite the high demand in the Leipzig

region, primarily due to high ancillary

costs and outdated building technology.

The production and manufacturing sector

continues to be the source of highest

demand in the Leipzig region, accounting

for almost 200,000 sqm, or 58% of total

take-up. Logistics service providers

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116.0

343.7 346.7



up to 500 0 0%

501 – 1,000 0 0%

1,001 – 3,000 14,300 4%

3,001 – 5,000 9,900 3%

5,001 – 10,000 67,800 20%

above 10,000 254,700 73%

Total 346,700 100%






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(19%) and retailers (16%) trailed at some

distance. Retailers saw take-up cut in half

yoy due to the absence of leases signed by

major retailers.

rents

Prime rents (€4.60 per sqm) and average

rents (€3.70 per sqm) for logistics space

starting at 3,000 sqm remained stable

over the course of 2019. However, there is

a chance that we may see a slight drop in

new-build rents going forward, particu-

larly in the Halle/Saale and Großkugel

area, i.e. primarily around Leipzig-Halle

Airport, as a number of property develop-

ers are currently active there within a

relatively small radius.

Outlook

Availability is more important than

location at the moment, as suppliers in

particular are currently under pressure to

find space with a set completion date.

Around 100,000 sqm of speculative

logistics space is currently under con-

struction, only about 10,000 sqm of

which is scheduled for completion by

mid-2020. The remaining space will not

hit the market until late 2020 or early

2021. As a result, companies will have to

manage with rather limited supply in

2020.

Others 7%



Companies 58%

4.304.50 4.50

4.60

3.20

3.50 3.503.70

4.60

3.70

2

3

4

5

20192018201720162015


Average Rent Prime Rent


29m

uNiCH | 2019 / 2020


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Take-up in sqm 227,000 201,100 13%

Leasing Performance in sqm 202,500 201,100 1%







1 Center 0 0%

2 Center North-West 0 0%

3 Center North-East 0 0%

4 Center South-East 0 0%

5 Center South-West 0 0%

6 City North-West 20,000 9%

7 City North-East 5,300 2%

8 City South-East 5,900 3%

9 City South-West 5,400 2%

10 Periphery South-West 36,000 16%

11 Periphery North-West 35,200 16%

12 Periphery North-East 102,200 45%

13 Periphery South-East 17,000 7%

Total 227,000 100%

Others 7%



Companies 58%

4.304.50 4.50

4.60

3.20

3.50 3.503.70

4.60

3.70

2

3

4

5

20192018201720162015



MUNICH

8

2

14

6

5

37

89

10

München

13

12

11

995

94

999

92

88

99

96

95

952

Garching

Hallbergmoos

NeufahrnEching

Unterschleißheim

Oberschleißheim

Allach

Moosach

Milbertshofen

Poing

Sendling

Baierbrunn

Brunnthal

Vaterstetten

Unterhaching

Feldkirchen

UnterföhringKirchheim bei München

Gräfelfing

Olching

Maisach

Sulzemoos

Bergkirchen

Gilching

Fürstenfeldbruck

Dachau

Freising

Erding





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Take-up

The Munich industrial and logistics mar-

ket recorded roughly 202,500 sqm in

take-up (excluding office and common

areas) in 2019, matching previous-year

results (2018: 201,100 sqm). However,

results did fall short of the five-year aver-

age by 13%. If we include owner-occupier

activity, take-up for 2019 totaled roughly

227,000 sqm. The largest deal of the year

was signed by automobile manufacturer

BMW for a property in Vaterstetten to the

east of Munich. The new site will feature

around 32,000 sqm of hall space and is

located in the new VGP Park Parsdorf.

BMW is planning to move into the property

in 2020. Construction on the large-scale

property development began last October

and the development will feature total

rental space of 250,000 sqm. Machine

building company Kraus-Maffei is

planning to relocate its premises from

Allach to VGP Park Parsdorf by 2022.

Supply and Demand

Only three leases were signed for over

10,000 sqm in the Munich region, includ-

ing technology company Hönle’s own-

er-occupier development in Gilching

(roughly 14,500 sqm). Thanks to the deal

signed by BMW, deals for over 5,000 sqm

accounted for 35% of total take-up, or

79,700 sqm (9 deals signed). The space

segment of between 1,000 sqm and

3,000 sqm again proved the most popular,

generating a total of 68,900 sqm with

about 42 deals signed. The segment also

recorded a yoy increase of 27%.

Demand continues to be driven by

companies from the production and

manufacturing sector, which claimed

a 47% share, or 106,200 sqm, in line

with previous-year results.

Munich continues to lag behind in terms

of new-build activity, falling short of

Germany’s other top locations such as

Berlin, Hamburg and Frankfurt. Aside



up to 500 4,100 2%

501 – 1,000 20,100 9%

1,001 – 3,000 68,900 30%

3,001 – 5,000 54,200 24%

5,001 – 10,000 34,200 15%

above 10,000 45,500 20%

Total 227,000 100%

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400


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342.4

250.7

201.1227.0


31m

uNiCH | 2019 / 2020


verview | C


from the first construction phase at VGP

Park Parsdorf, there are currently no

significant new-build developments

underway to add space to the market. As

a result, the majority of leases are still

being signed for space at stock proper-

ties. This trend can be seen in current

price levels with space at stock proper-

ties in some cases even going for new-

build prices. Supply on the market contin-

ues to be severely limited and available

space is often being re-let off-market.

rents

Prime rents for warehouses exceeding

3,000 sqm rose 2% yoy to €7.15 per sqm.

Average rents also experienced a slight

increase to a current €6.70 per sqm.

Warehouse rents at the moment are

higher in Munich than in any other Ger-

man city.

Outlook

Rents are likely to continue to rise, leading

many occupiers to turn to surrounding

regions such as Augsburg, Ingolstadt and

Moosburg. We expect this year’s annual

take-up to match previous-year results

thanks to the VGP Park development.

Others 23%




Companies 47%

6.756.85 6.85

6.006.10

6.50

7.00

6.60

7.15

6.70

5

6

7

8







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1 Stuttgart 9,900 6%

2 Ludwigsburg 68,400 40%

3 Rems-Murr-District 60,200 35%

4 Göppingen 1,100 1%

5 Esslingen 24,100 14%

6 Böblingen 7,700 4%

Total 171,400 100%

STUTTGART

am Neckar

Waiblingen

Esslingen

Göppingen

Ludwigsburg

Böblingen

Calw

Pforzheim

Heilbronn Schwäbisch Hall

Tübingen

Reutlingen

Stuttgart

Neu-Ulm

2

1

465

3

6

81

8

81


Take-up in sqm 171,400 300,400 – 43%






33STuTTgarT


arkets Overview


0

100

200

300

400


393.9

300.4

171.4

235.0267.6

Take-up

The Stuttgart industrial and logistics

market finished out 2019 with roughly

171,400 sqm in take-up, down a consider-

able 43% yoy (300,400 sqm). This is the

second-lowest result recorded after

2014’s dip and reflects a 37% drop com-

pared to the 5-year average. Take-up

excluding owner-occupiers came to

130,500 sqm, roughly half of the result

posted in 2018 (257,000 sqm). The largest

deals signed included the Greenfield

property development for Daimler in

Waiblingen (42,000 sqm, Rems-Murr-

Kreis submarket) and the lease signed by

Daimler subsidiary AMG for roughly

10,200 sqm in Marbach (Ludwigsburg

submarket).

Supply and Demand

This dramatic drop in take-up can primar-

ily be attributed to the absence of deals

for units of over 10,000 sqm, which have

contributed significantly to take-up

results in the past. Only 2 leases were

signed in this segment in 2019 (30%, or

52,200 sqm) compared to a total of 8 deals

in the previous year. The small-scale

segment of under 3,000 sqm also posted

a drop in take-up at 23%. Availability is

scarce at the moment and the limited

new- build construction activity is unable

to provide much relief. Demand from the

automotive sector and automotive suppli-

ers is also subdued, primarily in response

to uncertainties in the production indus-

try. Take-up generated by the production

and manufacturing sector fell from 44%

in 2018 to a current 35%. In addition to the

development site bottleneck in all sub-

markets of the Stuttgart logistics region,

building permits are subject to extremely

long lead times and the lack of skilled

workers is tangible. Developers are



up to 500 1,200 1%

501 – 1,000 13,300 8%

1,001 – 3,000 37,300 22%

3,001 – 5,000 22,300 13%

5,001 – 10,000 45,100 26%

above 10,000 52,200 30%

Total 171,400 100%

LEaSiNg






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beginning to turn to surrounding regions

as a result and are increasingly looking to

the Rhine-Neckar region and the areas

along the A8 motorway towards Ulm and

the A81 south of Herrenberg. We are also

likely to see more new-build construction

activity along the A7 between the Feucht-

wangen junction and Ulm. A few land

sites zoned for logistics are still available

in these areas.

rents

Prime rents remained stable both within

Stuttgart city limits and in surrounding

districts such as Ludwigsburg, Böblingen

and Rems-Murr-Kreis. Prime rents for

warehouse space larger than 3,000 sqm

still come to €6.50 per sqm. Average rents

have also stabilized at €5.20 per sqm.

Outlook

Despite current fluctuations in automo-

tive production, demand is expected to

remain high in 2020 with no dramatic

impact on the logistics market. We can

also expect demand to continue to be

confronted with extremely limited space

available for immediate tenancy, a

situation that is unlikely to change in 2020

as the new-build pipeline is practically

non-existent at the moment. One of the

few developments for the year involves

30,000 sqm east of Stuttgart along

highway B10 in Plochingen. Due to these

limiting conditions, we can expect market

activity to keep a pace similar to that

seen in 2019 and again fall short of the

average posted in recent years.

Others 44%

Trading Companies 10%

6.20 6.20

6.50 6.50

4.704.80

5.20 5.20

6.50

5.20


4

5

6

7

20192018201720162015



Companies 35%


35iNvESTm

ENT | 2019 / 2020


verview | C

olliers International INVESTMENT

Transaction volume

The German industrial and logistics real

estate market finished out 2019 with a

satisfactory annual result. Investors

poured roughly €6.6bn into this asset

class, bringing in the third-strongest

annual result to date since record year

2017 (€8.7bn) and 2018 (€6.8bn) despite

ongoing limited supply. This result also

managed to top the 5-year average by

roughly 19%. Industrial and logistics once

again proved to be the third strongest as-

set class on the overall commercial real

estate market with a market share of over

9%. This excellent result can largely be

attributed to exceptionally lively activity

during the end-of-year rally. Almost the

same amount of capital was invested

in Q4 as in Q1 and Q2 combined. And

results would have been even higher if

more product had been available.

Supply and Demand

Portfolio deals accounted for €2.6bn in

transaction volume in 2019, or 40% of

annual transaction volume, down 32% yoy.

Apollo Global Management and Palmira

Capital Partners sold the Maximus port-

folio in Q4, the largest logistics portfolio

deal in 2019. Singapore’s sovereign wealth

fund (GIC) acquired the pan-European

logistics portfolio comprising 28 assets

before the end of the year. The portfolio

changed hands for around €950m, €540m

of which was generated by the portfolio’s

German assets. Other deals included the

sale of the Blue Chip portfolio comprised

of 3 large distribution centers to GreenOak

and Apeiron (roughly €350m) as well as

the sale of 9 logistics assets to the REIT

managed by Asian investor Frasers

(roughly €320m). The deal involving the

sale of the Amazon Logistics Center

(75,000 sqm) in Dortmund was one of the

year’s major and most expensive single-

asset deals with a gross yield of just above

4%. Arabian investors sold the asset to

Savills Investment Managers for roughly

€140m just two years after initial acquisi-

tion. Another notable single-asset deal

Others 44%

Trading Companies 10%

6.20 6.20

6.50 6.50

4.704.80

5.20 5.20

6.50

5.20


4

5

6

7

20192018201720162015



Companies 35%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

20192018201720162015

0 10 20 30 40 50

Other properties

Mixed use

Building SiteCommercial

Hotel

Industrial &Logistics

Retail

Office

Industrial Logistics Transaction Volume Germany TAV in total

6,5663,972 4,579 8,662 6,814

Figure 2: Transaction Volume by Property Type in bn €

Figure 1: Transaction Volume Industrial & Logistics in bn €





36iN

vEST

mEN

T |

2019

/ 202

0In

dust

rial

and

Log

istic

s M

arke

ts O

verv

iew

| C

ollie

rs In

tern

atio

nal

0 1 2 3 4

Other Investors

Corporates/Owner-Occupiers

REITs

Pension Funds

Open-ended Real Estate Funds/Special Funds

Asset Managers/Fund Managers

Other Investors


Private Investors/Family Offices

Property Developers



up € 10m 8%

€ 10m to € 30m 18%

€ 30m to € 50m 11%

above € 100m 51%€50m to € 100m 12%

Seller Buyer Seller Buyer

0

20

40

60

80

100

20192018201720162015

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

Q4 19Q4 18Q4 17Q4 16Q4 15

National International

was La Française’s acquisition in Sep-

tember of the new Amazon logistics

center in Mönchengladbach (around

150,000 sqm) under similar conditions

on behalf of South-Korean investors

Samsung and KB.

Foreign investors continued to be active

on the German market in 2019, pouring a

total of around €4.0bn into German logis-

tics and industrial assets. This reflects a

60% market share, up 13 percentage

points yoy. Asian investors like Frasers

and GIC (Maximus portfolio) accounted for

€1.6bn alone. British investors (roughly

€1.1bn) and US investors (€547m) were

particularly active on the German logistics

market as well. British investor Savills In-

vestment Managers acquired the Amazon

Logistics Center in Dortmund as well as

3 DHL transshipment centers in Berlin,

Leimen and St. Ingbert (Saarland) for

around €49m. German investors were less

active in 2019 compared to the previous

year, accounting for €2.6bn, or 40%, with

results down 12 percentage points yoy.

The investor group dedicated one third of

this transaction volume to light industrial

assets while foreign investors continued

to focus on traditional logistic assets.

yields

High-quality assets featuring long-term

leases and low-risk tenants have become

quite rare on the German market. Demand

for logistics space is extremely high at

the moment and even investors with less

experience in this segment have become

increasingly interested. Prices are rising

as a result and purchase price multipliers

continue to increase. Gross prime yields

were recorded at 4.2% at year-end for

latest-generation logistics assets in top

locations featuring a standard lease term

of at least 10 years (net yield of roughly

3.7%). Gross prime yields fell another

30 bps over the course of 2019 with no

end in sight.

Figure 3: Transaction Volume by Size Category in %

Figure 4: Transaction Volume by Buyer / Seller Groups in bn €

37iNvESTm

ENT | 2019 / 2020


verview | C


0 1 2 3 4

Other Investors


REITs

Pension Funds



Other Investors


Private Investors/Family Offices

Property Developers



up € 10m 8%

€ 10m to € 30m 18%

€ 30m to € 50m 11%

above € 100m 51%€50m to € 100m 12%

Seller Buyer Seller Buyer

0

20

40

60

80

100

20192018201720162015

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

Q4 19Q4 18Q4 17Q4 16Q4 15

National International

Summary and Outlook

Prime yield compression is set to continue

in light of ongoing negotiations and cur-

rent bidding rounds involving core assets,

and we expect multipliers to exceed 24 × in

the next few months. Gross prime yields

continue to approach the 4% mark. Some

owner-occupiers are likely to take advan-

tage of these favorable market conditions

to sell their assets in the scope of sale-

and-lease-back transactions, anticipating

high profit in light of strong demand and

intensified competition. Investors will

have to adjust their price expectations in

order to gain access to coveted assets.

Even stock properties are recording

multipliers at levels previously typical

for new-build core products. The current

ups and downs in industrial production do

not seem to have had an impact on invest-

ment activity around German industrial

and logistics assets to date, and investor

interest in these assets will remain strong

in 2020. Investor sentiment for 2020 is

favorable with e-commerce and high

c onsumer spending in Germany pointing

to continued growth in demand for logis-

tics space.

Figure 5: Share of International Investors in %

Figure 6: Prime Yield Performance (Gross Initial Yield) Mean value in %





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Take-up of space Take-up of space is the sum of all spaces

either newly let, or built by an owner-

occupier within the period under consid-

eration. The salient date is that on

which the lease agreement is signed.

The renewal of an existing lease is not

counted in the take-up of space. Exclu-

sively logistics and industrial space

serves as the basis of calculation;

pro- rata office and ancillary space is

not taken into account.

Leasing PerformanceLeasing performance reflects take-up

excluding owner-occupied space.

Exclusively logistics and industrial

space serves as the basis of calculation;

pro- rata office and ancillary space is

not taken into account.

Prime RentPrime rent refers to latest generation

logistics space exceeding 3,000 sqm

(min. height 10 m bottom edge,

2–3 docking gates / 1,000 sqm, sprin-

kler system, office share up to 10%).

Average RentAverage rent refers to multi-functional

logistics space exceeding 3,000 sqm

(height > 7 m bottom edge, 1–2 docking

gates / 1,000 sqm, low office share).

Prime YieldsGross prime yield refers to Class-A

properties (latest generation logistics

properties, max. age of building 10 years,

> 5,000 sqm, height > 10.0 m bottom

edge with docking gates, long lease

terms) in Germany’s top investment

markets.

KONTAKTE / STANDORTEBerlinBudapester Straße 50

10787 Berlin

Tel. +49 30 202993-0

DüsseldorfKönigsallee 60 C

(Entrance Grünstraße)

40212 Düsseldorf

Tel. +49 211 862062-0

FrankfurtThurn-und-Taxis-Platz 6

60313 Frankfurt am Main

Tel. +49 69 719192-0

HamburgBurchardstraße 17

20095 Hamburg

Tel. +49 40 328701-0

CologneKaiser-Wilhelm-Ring 15

50672 Cologne

Tel. +49 221 986537-0

LeipzigMarkgrafenstraße 2

04109 Leipzig

Tel. +49 341 2182990-0

MunichDachauer Straße 63

80335 Munich

Tel. +49 89 624294-0

NurembergAm Tullnaupark 15

90402 Nuremberg

Tel. +49 911 462795-0

StuttgartKönigstraße 5

70173 Stuttgart

Tel. +49 711 22733-0

Peter Kunz FRICSHEAD OF INDUSTRIAL

& LOGISTICS EMEA

[email protected]

Susanne KieseHEAD OF RESEARCH

[email protected]

Nicole KinneRESEARCH INDUSTRIAL

& LOGISTICS

[email protected]

Bildnachweise

Front page : Shutterstock, Inc.

Berlin : Lilopark Großbeeren,

Colliers International

Düsseldorf : istock, baloncici

Frankfurt : Logistics Park near

Hanauer Kreuz, Colliers International

Hamburg : Mach 2, FourParx

Cologne : istock, VanderWolf-Images

Leipzig : Baytree Distribution Center

Leipzig, Baytree

Munich : Air Tech Campus

Oberpfaffenhofen, Beos AG

Stuttgart : Logistics Center Epfendorf,

Colliers International





Colliers InternationalDeutschland GmbHThurn-und-Taxis-Platz 660313 Frankfurt

CONTACT

rESEarCH

Nicole KinneAssociate Director I Research Industrial & Logistics+49 89 [email protected]

Copyright © 2020 Colliers International Deutschland GmbH

This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers Inter-national makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International and/or its licensor(s).

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