Geothermal Potential: a new assessment approach and its...
Transcript of Geothermal Potential: a new assessment approach and its...
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Geothermal Potential: a new assessment approach and its application to VIGOR regions
Eugenio Trumpy1, Maarten Pluymaekers2, Jan Diederik van Wees2, Adele Manzella1, Serena Botteghi1, Federica
Caiozzi1, Raimondo Catalano3, Gianluca Gola1, Marco Doveri1, Domenico Montanari1, Salvatore Monteleone3
1 Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources (IGG) – National Research Council (CNR), 2 TNO, Utrecht – Holland, 3 DISTEM, Palermo University
Consiglio Nazionale delle RicercheDipartimento Terra e Ambiente
39th Course of the International School of Geophysics“Understanding Geological Systems for Geothermal Energy”(“Ettore Majorana” Foundation and Centre for Scientific Culture
Erice, Sicily | 25 September – 1 October, 2012)
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✔ Geothermal potential
✔ Assessment methodology
✔ Case study: the Sicily region
✔ Preliminary results
Target: VIGOR project goals are to produce new maps of the deep geothermal potential in the southern regions in order to assess where and how geothermal resource can be exploited
Summary
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Assess the resources not only the quantities that could be exploited under the present economic conditions, but also the quantities not yet discovered or that might be exploited with the improved technology or under different economic conditions
➢ Government bodies
➢ Greenhouse developers
➢ Property developers
➢ Electric Power industries
➢ Investors and insurance companies
Who are the stakeholders?
What does geothermal potential mean?
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➢ Geological and physical (e.g. temperature distribution, porosity, permeability,
circulation, reservoir characteristics, ...)
➢ Technological (e.g. application, efficiency, drilling, ...)
➢ Economic (e.g. value of the geothermal energy, O&M costs, the capital costs, ...)
➢ Other general (e.g. legal regulation, social constraints, national energy policy,
ecological limitation, ...)
Increasing difficulty in evaluation on large scale
Geothermal Potential:affecting Factors
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Conducted by CNR, ENEA, ENEL and ENI, under Law No 896 of 1986.It resulted in maps and reports. The Geothermal Ranking was based on temperature and fluid availability
A: areas where at least one aquifer, at depth < 3 km, has temperature > 150°C
B: areas where at least one aquifer, at depth < 3 km, has temperature in the range 150 – 90 °C
C: areas where at least one aquifer, at depth < 3 km, has temperature in the range 90 – 30 °C
D: areas with only minor aquifers at depth < 3 km, temperature < 150°C
The inventory of national geothermal resources
A
B
C
D
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● Methodology
● Java multi-routines
● Resource assessment of the main aquifer
for electricity, heat and power-heat
✔ VIGOR ThermoGIS cannot and is not intended to substitute geological exploration approach
✔ VIGOR ThermoGIS can be used to focus geothermal exploration
VIGOR ThermoGIS
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VIGOR ThermoGIS works both in 2D and in 3D
✔ Data input is the result of a team of specialists: geologist,
hydro-geologist, geo-chemist, geophysicists, ...
✔ Volumetric method assessment
✔ Include Montecarlo calculation to incorporate the effects of
uncertainty
✔ Output maps: temperature maps @ various depth, technical
potential for power and heat applications
VIGOR ThermoGIS
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Heat In Place [PJ/kmHeat In Place [PJ/km22] ]
✔ HIP is the maximum theoretically extractable heat in the reservoir
✔ H = V x ρrock
x cprock
x (Tx - T
s) x 10-15
✔ Tx = Temperature @ depth
✔ Ts = Temperature @ surface
✔ ρrock
= 2700 kg/m3
✔ cprock
= 1000 J/kg k
VIGOR ThermoGIS
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Theoretical Capacity [PJ/kmTheoretical Capacity [PJ/km22] ]
✔ H = V x ρrock
x cprock
x (Tx - T
r) x 10-15
✔ Tr = T
s + 80° (e.i. Electricity from Beardsmore, 2010)
✔ TC = H x η
✔ Efficiency = η =
VIGOR ThermoGIS
T x−Ts
T x+T s+2x 273,15 Kx 0,6
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Theoretical Technical Potential [MW/kmTheoretical Technical Potential [MW/km22] ]
✔ Energy
✔ Lifecycle = 30 years
✔ UR = TP/TPtheoretical
✔ TP =
✔ Theoretical UR = 100 %
VIGOR ThermoGIS
TC30 x secondsinyear
x UR=1,057 xTC xUR
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Technical Potential [MW/kmTechnical Potential [MW/km22] = TPtg] = TPtg
✔ Energy
✔ Lifecycle = 30 years
✔ UR = TP/TPtheoretical
✔ TP =
➢ Theoretical UR = 100 %
➢ From Van Wees, 2012 → UR = 33 %
VIGOR ThermoGIS
TC30 x secondsinyear
x UR=1,057 xTC xUR
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Technical Potential [MW/kmTechnical Potential [MW/km22] = TPbm] = TPbm
✔ Energy
✔ Lifecycle = 30 years
✔ UR = TP/TPtheory
✔ TP =
➢ Theoretical UR = 100 %
➢ From Van Wees, 2012 → UR = 33 %
➢ From Beardsmore, 2010 → UR = 1 %
VIGOR ThermoGIS
TC30 x secondsinyear
x UR=1,057 xTC xUR
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Economic Technical Potential [MW/kmEconomic Technical Potential [MW/km22] = TPlcoe_p] = TPlcoe_p
➢ Calculated from TPtg (UR=33%)
➢ LCOE < cutoff
✔ Economic technical potential takes as input the
expected flowrate doublet system
✔ power = flowrate x cpwater
x ρwater
x (Tx – Tr) 10-9
VIGOR ThermoGIS
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Economic Technical Potential [MW/kmEconomic Technical Potential [MW/km22] = TPlcoe_p] = TPlcoe_p
➢ Flowrate depends on transmissivity,transmissivity, deltadelta
pressurepressure applied at reservoir level and viscosityviscosity
➢ Specific routine redistributes the permeability
according to Montecarlo simulation
➢ Transmissivity average on drilled interval
➢ In TPlcoe_p, _p is the cumulative probability
(p=10, p=30, p=50, p=70, p=90) of expected
flowrate
VIGOR ThermoGIS
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Levelized Cost Of Energy [€/MWe, €/JG]Levelized Cost Of Energy [€/MWe, €/JG]
➢ Calculated for power, district heating and direct heat
➢ Depend on:
✔ Drilling cost (depth, stimulation, pump, ...)
✔ Economic lifetime
✔ Flowrate & temperature
✔ Power surface facilities (O&M, plant investiment, …)
➢ Complementary electricity/heat sales
➢ Economic factors (inflation, interest rate on debit, tax)
VIGOR ThermoGIS
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To be Matched to energy demand (?)To be Matched to energy demand (?)
➢ Knowing where and for what
➢ Checking the resource
➢ Matching the energy demand with the
potentially exploitable resources
VIGOR ThermoGIS
ThermoGIS new challengeThermoGIS new challenge
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Case study: The Sicily regionCase study: The Sicily region
✔ Data input:✔ Geometric characteristic of the reservoir (top, bottom below sea
level)✔ Temperature model distribution (temperature voxet)✔ Reservoir permeability (mD)✔ Surface average temperature (°C)
✔Parameters:✔ Reservoir (e.g. rock heat capacity, rock density, water heat
capacity,..)✔ Doublet (e.g. well distance, …)✔ Application temperature production & reinjection✔ Economic (e.g. well cost scaling, O&M, fiscals,...)
VIGOR ThermoGIS
The subsurface is represented by a 3D voxetThe horizontal resolution is 1000 m on x y and vertical resolution is 100 m
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Case study: The Sicily regionCase study: The Sicily region
Data input:
➢ Geological & hydro-geological maps
➢ Geological & hydro-geological cross-sections
➢ Seismic cross-sections
➢ Hydrocarbon wells litho-stratigraphy
➢ Literature info & data
VIGOR ThermoGIS
Reservoir geometry
CCOOVVEERR
RREESSEERRVVOOIIRR
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Case study: The Sicily regionCase study: The Sicily region
➢ Data output: ascii file top reservoir
VIGOR ThermoGIS
Reservoir geometry
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Case study: The Sicily regionCase study: The Sicily region
….that is the topic of the next
presentation
VIGOR ThermoGIS
Temperature distribution
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Case study: The Sicily regionCase study: The Sicily region
Data input: Hydrocarbon wells litho-
stratigraphy, adsorption and/or
permeability test
VIGOR ThermoGIS
Reservoir permeability value
No significant dependency on
stratigraphic height and spatial
correlation
Permeability measured over a perforated
intervals of approximately 50 m
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Case study: The Sicily regionCase study: The Sicily region
VIGOR ThermoGIS
➢ expectation curves of the log of the
permeability in a 50m vertical
intervals, based on 56 measurements
➢ Distribution of the transmissivity, built
on the base of 1000 Montecarlo
calculation
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For the cells belonging to the aquifer, temperature has been used to calculate Heat In Place
VIGOR ThermoGIS
For the calculation of TC, TTP, TPtg, TPbm, TPlcoe, we discriminate the following application:
The LCOE_p has been calculated for each cell adopting a flowrate corresponding to a transmissivity in agreement with a 1000 m vertical (which P=P10, P30, P50, P70, P90)
PowerPower District heatingDistrict heating Direct heatDirect heat
Minimum Minimum temperaturetemperature
120 80 45
re-injectionre-injection 97 40 35
Economic modelEconomic model power heat heat
Threshold LCOE Threshold LCOE 200 €/MWe 9 €/GJ 9 €/GJ
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Sicily temperature maps: 1, 3, 5 km depth
VIGOR ThermoGIS
1km
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Sicily temperature maps: 1, 3, 5 km depth
VIGOR ThermoGIS
1km
3km
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Sicily temperature maps: 1, 3, 5 km depth
VIGOR ThermoGIS
1km
3km
5km
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Sicily technical potential map for power with binary plant
VIGOR ThermoGIS
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Sicily technical potential map for power with binary plant
VIGOR ThermoGIS
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Sicily technical potential map for power with binary plant
VIGOR ThermoGIS
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Sicily technical potential map for District heating
VIGOR ThermoGIS
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Sicily technical potential map for District heating
VIGOR ThermoGIS
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Sicily technical potential map for District heating
VIGOR ThermoGIS
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In progress:
✗ Refining geological model
✗ Improving economic assessment
✗ Verifying and analyzing the results
VIGOR ThermoGIS
VIGOR thermoGIS 2D
VIGOR thermoGIS 3D linear thermal
gradient
VIGOR thermoGIS 3D thermal model
(voxet 3D)
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✔ Beardsmosre, G.R., Rybach, L., Blackwell, D., Baron, C., 2010. A protocol for estimation and mapping
the global EGS potential, July 2010 edition, 11p.
✔ Cloetingh, S., v. Wees, J.D., Ziegler, P.A., Lenkey, L., Beekman, F., Tesauro, M., Förster, A., Norden, B.,
Kaban, M., Hardebol, N., Bonté, D., Genter, A., Guillou-Frottier, L. Voorde, M.T., Sokoutis,, D.
Willingshofer, E., Cornu, T., and Worum, G., 2010. Lithosphere tectonics and thermo-mechanical
properties: An integrated modeling approach for Enhanced Geothermal Systems exploration in Europe.
Earth-Science Reviews, vol. 102, p. 159-206.
✔ IPCC, 2011. IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation –
Geothermal Energy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group III – Mitigation
of Climate Change, 50 p.
✔ Williams, C.F., Reed, M.J., and Mariner, R.H., 2008. A Review of Methods Applied by the U.S. Geological
Survey in the Assessment of Identified Geothermal Resources, U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S.
Geological Survey, Open-File Report 2008-1296, 27 p.
References
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...any simple questions?
Thank you for your attention!
Conclusions
...for the hard ones it would be better to see you in front
of a cool beer...