Geotechnical Engineering in Offshore Wind - how can we contribute to lowering the cost of electricity?

DGF Seminar, Gentofte, 1st April 2014

1

Safety first Emergency exits

Muster points

First aid kits

− Reception

− Service point

− Coffee break

stations

In case of fire alarm

− Leave the building

− Do not use lift

− Go to muster points

− Wait for

instructions

11:30 - 12:00 Arriving and getting settled (Sandwiches are served)

12:00 - 12:15 Welcome to DGF seminar Session lead: Morten Albjerg Liingaard (DGF)

• Offshore Wind and Challenges ahead Tove Feld (Vice President, DONG Energy)

12:15 - 13:15 Session 1: Site Investigation Session lead: Michael Sienko (Rambøll)

• Geotechnical site investigations Jens Brink Clausen (GEO)

• Geotechnics moving forward Joek Peuchen (Fugro Engineers B.V.)

• Cable trenching engineering David Cathie (Cathie Associates)

Discussion: Cost-effective site investigations in the future?

13:15 - 15:00 Session 2: Site Assessment and Input to Design Session lead: Niels Mortensen (NMGeo)

• Deriving characteristic soil parameters Kristine Lee Kaufmann (Rambøll)

• Influence of max/min dry density measurements on density index of laboratory testing sand

samples

Lone Krogh (DONG Energy)

• Probabilistic approach to determining soil parameters Lars Andersen (AAU)

• From a certification perspective Liv Hamre (DNV GL)

• Impact of soil-structure interaction on turbine loading Niels Jacob Tarp-Johansen (DONG Energy)

Discussion: How can we improve site assessment and input for design?

15:00 - 15:30 Coffee Break

15:30 - 17:30 Session 3: Geotechnical Design Session lead: Ole Hededal (COWI)

• New directions in offshore axial pile design Richard Jardine (Imperial College)

• Future monopile design: where is the PISA project taking us? Alastair Muir Wood (DONG Energy)

• Jackets on Wikinger Anders Augustesen (COWI)

• Potential of screw piles in offshore wind Guy Houlsby (Oxford University)

Discussion: Can new concepts and/or improvement of state-of-the-art design methods reduce CoE?

17:30 - 19:00 Session 4: Installation Session lead: Anders T. S. Andersen (Aarsleff)

• Installation of suction caissons for OWT's Tor Inge Tjelta (Statoil)

• Driveability assessment of large monopiles Per Grud (CP Test)

• Vibro-driving monopiles - a feasible installation concept for the future? Christian LeBlanc Thilsted (DONG Energy)

Discussion: Installation in the future?

19:00 - 19:15 Seminar closure

19:15 - 21:00 Dinner and net-working

Geotechnical Engineering in Offshore Wind 1st April 2014, Gentofte

Copenhagen, Tove Feld, 1 April 2014

Offshore Wind and Challenges ahead Presentation at Danish Geotechnical Society Seminar

25 years of experience DONG Energy has build 40% of all offshore wind farms in operation

Current Offshore wind farms

under construction:

WODS (UK)

BRK 1 (DE)

incl. suction bucket jacket (demo)

WMR (UK)

GOW 1+2 (DE)

Wind Power 2020 Strategy

Key objectives

Decrease lost time injury frequency to a level below

<1.5 by 2020

Reduce Cost-of-Electricity by 40% below €100/MWh2

by 2020 (£85/MWh)

Generate ROCE of 12-14% by 2020, 6-8 % by 2016

Increase installed gross capacity from 1.71 GW to 6.5

GW by 2020

1. 1.7GW YE2012; 2.1GW September 2013

2. UK market – 2020 FID

5 key challenges for the offshore wind industry

Offshore wind industry is maturing but growth is dependent on supply chain development (scale, quality, cost)

3

Offshore wind is not competitive with other

energy technologies 1

Sites move further from shore and on

deeper water 2

4

5 No offshore wind industry HSE standards exist

Utilities are struggling to secure funding of future projects

Offshore wind industry needs to reduce LCoE while delivering projects

further from shore and on deeper water

Offshore wind is not competitive with other energy technologies

Lifetime unit cost per MWh

PV Solar 2020 Coal CCGT Onshore Biomass Offshore

• Offshore wind is more expensive than other

commercial power generating technologies

• The cost of electricity need to be reduced

in order for offshore wind to become

competitive and long-term sustainable

Sites move further from shore and on deeper water

• UK Round 3 sites are far from shore

• German sites are on deeper water

• No technically and commercially proven

deep water foundation concepts

• Supply of far-from-shore transmission

solutions is heavily constrained

Depth

Distance to shore

DONG Energy expects to reduce cost of electricity for offshore wind power significantly towards 2020

160

<100

CoE targets

2020

Offtake price

(UK) 2012

LCoE below 100 €/MWh for offshore wind power

€/MWh*

Walney offshore wind farm

CoE target is:

• expected below 100 €/MWh for investment decisions in 2020

• based on a UK scope (i.e. including substations and offshore power cables)

• a present value measure of average cost per MWh for investment and operations

CoE target requires:

• governments to ensure transparent planning, consenting and support regimes to ensure investment

certainty

• continuous build-out rates and project flow, to secure:

• maturation of supply chain

• technical innovation and investments

* Offtake price today is the average power price incl. ROCs and LECS received for UK-site Walney 2 in 2012.

National grid owner scope

National grid owner scope

National grid owner scope

Transmission grid Onshore substation Export Cable Offshore Substation Array Cables Turbines

DONG Energy Scope in Germany

DONG Energy scope in Denmark

Potential

HVDC station

DONG Energy scope in The United Kingdom

10

Cost of electricity target includes investments until onshore transmission grid

Over view of assets included in cost of electricity

100 €/MWh for DONG Energy scope in The United Kingdom Target

considered for

country scope

Standardisation will drive down cost and improve safety & quality

11

Cost

Safety

• Repeat effects

• Volume & Scale effects

Quality

Standardisation:

Other industries have achieved great benefits from standardisation and modularisation

Examples: Industrial track records

20-30% improvement in value through

• 10-15% in direct cost savings on

platform (e.g., procurement, engineering)

• 5-10% in overrun reduction on projects

• 5-10% via early delivery due to reduction

in cycle time

• 1990 - start of the standardization

• Platform concept developed - 75%

commonality between models on same

platform

• Average 5% cost reduction every year

Standardised, repeatable plant concept

introduced in 1990's

Cost of electricity reduced by 25-35%

Throughput for commissioning of plant

reduced to 28 months from 40 months

Combined Cycle Gas Power Plant Oil & Gas

Automotive

Onshore substation Export cables Array cables Foundations Offshore substation

Limited production

capacities,

manufacturers

reluctant to invest in

new production

Long lead times

Few financially strong

suppliers

Long design lead

times

High price of HVDC

transmission; early

financial commitment

required

No proven deep water

solution

Limited number of

experienced suppliers

able to deliver

sufficient volume and

quality

Constrained vessel

capacity

Limited number of

experienced and

financially strong

offshore WTG

suppliers

Installation vessels

for larger WTG to be

developed

Limited supplier base

for selected electrical

components

Construction delays

Cable suppliers may

favour export cable

market which offer

higher margin

High risk; financially

weak suppliers

Low supply chain constraints

High supply chain constraints

Turbines

DONG Energy is committed to further maturing the supply chain

13

Geotechnical Engineering plays an important part in reducing CoE

Several of the largest risks during project development is related to soil

conditions

Geotech and Geophys campaigns constitutes the single highest development

costs in the early phases

Foundation concepts are dependent on the soil conditions

Foundation cost are largely driven by geotechnical conditions and calculations

14

The Industry need to be successful: Joint Targets and responsibility

As marked leader Dong Energy is committed to driving the CoE agenda

Cost reductions require volume and scale, we need the industry to be successful

=> joint targets on maturing industry and reducing costs

As geotechnical society you need to understand and master project risk

mitigation and cost effective designs

The industry need to work together on R&D and industry standardisation

Openness to knowledge sharing within industry (todays seminar)

15

Thank you for your attention –

hope you enjoy todays seminar

11:30 - 12:00 Arriving and getting settled (Sandwiches are served)

12:00 - 12:15 Welcome to DGF seminar Session lead: Morten Albjerg Liingaard (DGF)

• Offshore Wind and Challenges ahead Tove Feld (Vice President, DONG Energy)

12:15 - 13:15 Session 1: Site Investigation Session lead: Michael Sienko (Rambøll)

• Geotechnical site investigations Jens Brink Clausen (GEO)

• Geotechnics moving forward Joek Peuchen (Fugro Engineers B.V.)

• Cable trenching engineering David Cathie (Cathie Associates)

Discussion: Cost-effective site investigations in the future?

13:15 - 15:00 Session 2: Site Assessment and Input to Design Session lead: Niels Mortensen (NMGeo)

• Deriving characteristic soil parameters Kristine Lee Kaufmann (Rambøll)

• Influence of max/min dry density measurements on density index of laboratory testing sand

samples

Lone Krogh (DONG Energy)

• Probabilistic approach to determining soil parameters Lars Andersen (AAU)

• From a certification perspective Liv Hamre (DNV GL)

• Impact of soil-structure interaction on turbine loading Niels Jacob Tarp-Johansen (DONG Energy)

Discussion: How can we improve site assessment and input for design?

15:00 - 15:30 Coffee Break

15:30 - 17:30 Session 3: Geotechnical Design Session lead: Ole Hededal (COWI)

• New directions in offshore axial pile design Richard Jardine (Imperial College)

• Future monopile design: where is the PISA project taking us? Alastair Muir Wood (DONG Energy)

• Jackets on Wikinger Anders Augustesen (COWI)

• Potential of screw piles in offshore wind Guy Houlsby (Oxford University)

Discussion: Can new concepts and/or improvement of state-of-the-art design methods reduce CoE?

17:30 - 19:00 Session 4: Installation Session lead: Anders T. S. Andersen (Aarsleff)

• Installation of suction caissons for OWT's Tor Inge Tjelta (Statoil)

• Driveability assessment of large monopiles Per Grud (CP Test)

• Vibro-driving monopiles - a feasible installation concept for the future? Christian LeBlanc Thilsted (DONG Energy)

Discussion: Installation in the future?

19:00 - 19:15 Seminar closure

19:15 - 21:00 Dinner and net-working

Geotechnical Engineering in Offshore Wind 1st April 2014, Gentofte