Georgian National Voter Study - IRI November 8...41 58 11 6 Feb. 2007 Sep. 2007 Right direction...
Transcript of Georgian National Voter Study - IRI November 8...41 58 11 6 Feb. 2007 Sep. 2007 Right direction...
Georgian National Voter Study
August 31 - September 10, 2007
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 20071
International Republican Institute,
Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization,
The Institute of Polling and Marketing
with funding from the
United States Agency for International Development
METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY� The survey was conducted from August 31 – September 10, 2007, by
the Institute of Polling and Marketing for Baltic Surveys/Gallup on behalf of the International Republican Institute.
� The sample consisted of 1,500 permanent Georgian residents over the age of 18 and eligible to vote, and is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion.
� The sample design was a multi-stage random sample.– Stage One: Break country into official administrative regions.– Stage Two: Select clusters of sampling points based on
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 20072
– Stage Two: Select clusters of sampling points based on settlement population (large, medium, small towns and villages). One sample point = approximately 1 percent of survey population (10-12 surveys). Sampling points in each region were selected based on the percentage of population living in the various levels of settlement in that same region.
� Respondents were selected by the random route method, using the next birthday rule to select a respondent from within a household.
� Data were collected through face-to-face interviews with the respondents.
� Poll was conducted nationwide, including the capital and all major regional centers.
� The margin of error does not exceed 3 percent.
SOCIOSOCIO--DEMOGRAPHICSDEMOGRAPHICS
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 20073
Gender
Male45%
Female55%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 20074
Age groups 18-2923%
50+37%
30-4940%
EducationUniversity, higher
34%
Secondary35%
Primary1%
Vocational22%
Unfinished secondary
4%Unfinished higher
4%
Ethnicity
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 20075
Ethnicity
Azeri5%
Other1%
Armenian4%
Georgian89%
Russian1%
Religion Other3.0%
None0.3%
DK/NA0.6%
Muslim8.0%
Catholic0.5%
Orthodox87.6%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 20076
Attendance of religious service
Never14%
Every day1%
A few times a week4%
Once a week15%
Once a month25%
A few times per year41%
Sector of employment
Don't work72%
Nongovernmental Organization
0%
Private sector18%
State sector10%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 20077
Occupation
Housewife16%
Unemployed31%
Other3%
Student4%
Blue collar4%
Farmer7%
White collar17%
Executive1%
Retired17%
MOOD OF THE COUNTRYMOOD OF THE COUNTRY
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 20078
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Georgia are going in Generally speaking, do you think that things in Georgia are going in the right direction or wrong direction?the right direction or wrong direction?
48
36
41
58
11
6
Feb. 2007
Sep. 2007
Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 20079
65
39
48
24
25
38
51
41
10
10
12
10
11
65
50
0 20 40 60 80 100
Oct. 2004
Jun. 2005
Oct. 2005
Apr. 2006
Feb. 2007
Over the last 3 months, the financial situation of your Over the last 3 months, the financial situation of your household has...?household has...?
1 14
7
49
46
21
26
13
20
1
1
Feb. 2007
Sep. 2007
Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the sameWorsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200710
1
1
1
16
21
15
14
14
61
58
57
49
49
14
12
18
22
21
6
6
8
14
13
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Oct. 2004
Jun. 2004
Oct. 2005
Apr. 2006
Feb. 2007
How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Georgia?Georgia?
6 45
36
23
34
16
23
10
52
Feb. 2007
Sep. 2007
Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200711
10
5
6
58
55
45
41
45
15
17
21
28
23
7
10
14
17
16
10
8
12
9
10
7
10
0 20 40 60 80 100
Oct. 2004
Jun. 2005
Oct. 2005
Apr. 2006
Feb. 2007
Do you believe that things will get better in a short amount of time Do you believe that things will get better in a short amount of time or will it take a long time for things to get better in the country?or will it take a long time for things to get better in the country?
69 1120Sep. 2007
Short time Long time Not sure/refused
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200712
28
21
28
59
61
67
67
59
10
11
11
12
13
22
31
0 20 40 60 80 100
Oct. 2004
Jun. 2005
Oct. 2005
Apr. 2006
Feb. 2007
ISSUESISSUES
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200713
ISSUESISSUES
What are the main problems Georgia is facing at the moment? What are the main problems Georgia is facing at the moment? Please mention the three most important problems, starting with the Please mention the three most important problems, starting with the
most important one:most important one:
18
3
2
60
33
30
10
3
16
39Unemployment
Territorial integrity
Economics
Social problems
Financial problems
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200714
1
1
1
1
1
1
10
5
3
2
3
2
3
1Rising prices
Pensions
Relations with Russia
High costs
Poverty
Abkhazian separatism
Low salaries
First mention
All mentions
What are the three main problems you’d say your town/village What are the three main problems you’d say your town/village is facing at the moment? Please mention the three most is facing at the moment? Please mention the three most
important problems, starting with the most important one:important problems, starting with the most important one:
9
5
3
2
48
16
15
9
5
4
8
36
2
Unemployment
Water problems
Roads
Economics
Gas
Social problems
Dirtiness of the city
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200715
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
4
3
5
3
3
2
2
2
3
3
Dirtiness of the city
Irrigation water
Rising prices
Local roads
Financial problems
Ecology
High cost of transportation
Agriculture
Expensive utilities
Reliability of transportation
First mention
All mentions
Speaking about your household, what are the three most Speaking about your household, what are the three most important problems for you and your household members? important problems for you and your household members? Please mention the three most important problems, starting Please mention the three most important problems, starting
with the most important one:with the most important one:
13
3
51
18
18
7
13
43Unemployment
Economic situation
Financial stability
Health problems
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200716
3
2
2
2
1
1
5
3
4
3
3
4
3
2
Low salaries
Social problems
Low pensions
Housing problems
Water problems
Expensive utilities
Rising prices
First mention
All mentions
Do you think it is acceptable or not if some groups use the following Do you think it is acceptable or not if some groups use the following methods of protest? How acceptable is each of these forms?methods of protest? How acceptable is each of these forms?
57
54
52
34
37
40
9
9
8
Legal demonstrations
Collecting signatures forpetition, letter
Legal strikes
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200717
36
23
19
12
56
68
72
80
8
9
9
8
Boycott
Demonstrations withoutpermission
Strikes withoutpermission
Occupation of buildingsor enterprises
Acceptable Not acceptable No opinion
There are some things people say they are worried about more There are some things people say they are worried about more than other things. Thinking about the current situation and the than other things. Thinking about the current situation and the
future of our country, what are the three things future of our country, what are the three things you are afraid of most of all?you are afraid of most of all?
9
4
3
3
2
31
27
15
5
5
5
18
20Unemployment
Territorial integrity
Economics
Fear of disturbances
Social problems
Relations with Russia
Rising prices
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200718
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
5
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Rising prices
War, instability
Demographic situation
Financial situation
Migration
Problem of Abkhazia
Drug addiction
Poverty
Education problem
Presence of Chinese investment
First mention
All mentions
Have you been in a situation over the last 12 months when you Have you been in a situation over the last 12 months when you had to pay a bribe in order to get a service or a decision?had to pay a bribe in order to get a service or a decision?
97 0.91 1Sep. 2007
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200719
96
95 2 2 1
2 0.7 1
70 80 90 100
Apr. 2006
Feb. 2007
No, have not paid any bribe in the last 12 months Yes, had to pay Refuse DK/NA
Which area should the Georgian government make its first priority Which area should the Georgian government make its first priority for reforms? Which area should be the second priority? for reforms? Which area should be the second priority?
The third priority?The third priority?
41
20
9
9
20
14
14
18
13
14
13
19
Economy
Judiciary
Education
Healthcare system
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200720
6
5
3
2
1
6
8
5
3
8
6
7
3
1
5 5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Defence
Penitential
Local governance
Energy sector
Protection of environment
OtherFirst Second Third
Which of these should be the Georgian government’s first priority? Which of these should be the Georgian government’s first priority? And which should be the second priority?And which should be the second priority?
48
44
37
42
Restoring Georgia'sterritorial integrity
Creating jobs
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200721
5
3
12
7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Implementing reforms
Integration into EuropeanUnion/NATO First Second
POLITICSPOLITICS
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200722
POLITICSPOLITICS
How much interest do you have in politics?How much interest do you have in politics?
42
42
31
29
26
28
Feb. 2007
Sep. 2007
Low interest Medium interest High interest
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200723
38
39
40
38
29
31
32
31
32
29
27
30
0 20 40 60 80 100
Oct. 2004
Jun. 2005
Oct. 2005
Apr. 2006
In your opinion, should the President of Georgia be an ethnic In your opinion, should the President of Georgia be an ethnic Georgian or it is not important?Georgian or it is not important?
It is not important9%
DK/NA1%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200724
Should be ethnic Georgian
90%
Please tell me your opinion Please tell me your opinion –– Who was a better President for Who was a better President for Georgia, Zviad Gamsakhurdia or Eduard Shevardnadze?Georgia, Zviad Gamsakhurdia or Eduard Shevardnadze?
Z.Gamsakhurdia57%
DK/NA9%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200725
E.Shevardnadze22%
No difference12%
Thinking about the Georgian president, what characteristics Thinking about the Georgian president, what characteristics would you consider to be the most important for his/her would you consider to be the most important for his/her
personality?personality?
17
14
12
11
10
7
7
12
12
16
3
2
11
8
7
10
3
4
12
14
8Close to people
Well educated
Caring for citizens' interests
Calm
Competent
Fair
Strong hand
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200726
7
5
4
3
2
1
1
1
6
7
6
3
2
1
1
13
4
8
6
3
1
1
8
2
6
0 10 20 30 40 50
Patriot
Following Georgian traditions
Close to church
Honest
Man of principles
Able to find solutions with opponents
Good looking
Aggressive
Respected in the West
First Importance
Second Importance
Third Importance
In your opinion, what kind of leader does Georgia need as In your opinion, what kind of leader does Georgia need as President?President?
Charismatic, aggressive and strong-handed
president23%
DK/NA4%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200727
Rational, calm and program-oriented
president73%
When you consider which party to vote for, what is more When you consider which party to vote for, what is more important, party leader or the party itself?important, party leader or the party itself?
2622
26 26 25
26
16
3 5 616 14
2119
11
60
80
100
No answer
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200728
55 54 58 58 6053
0
20
40
60
Sep. 2007 Feb. 2007 Apr. 2006 Oct. 2005 Jun. 2005 Oct. 2004
No answer
Both
Party is moreimportant
Leader is moreimportant
If all other characteristics are equal, would your prefer to vote If all other characteristics are equal, would your prefer to vote for the candidate for the parliament who is more active and for the candidate for the parliament who is more active and
younger or more experienced and older?younger or more experienced and older?
48 5341
15 17 15 19 14 17
2 1 3 11 1
60
70
80
90
100
No answer
Does not matter
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200729
2126
2132 30
41
63 56 6248 53
0
10
20
30
40
50
Sep. 2007 Feb. 2007 Apr. 2006 Oct. 2005 Jun. 2005 Oct. 2004
Moreexperienced,older
More active,younger
If all other characteristics are equal, would you prefer to vote If all other characteristics are equal, would you prefer to vote for the candidate for the parliament who is male or female?for the candidate for the parliament who is male or female?
5 5 8
41 42 43 40 4037
2 2 3 2 3 2
60
80
100
No answerDoes not matterFemale
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200730
52 50 50 53 51 53
5 6 55 6
8
0
20
40
Sep. 2007 Feb. 2007 Apr. 2006 Oct. 2005 Jun. 2005 Oct. 2004
FemaleMale
In your opinion, what are three major achievements of the In your opinion, what are three major achievements of the Georgian government, if any? Please mention three, Georgian government, if any? Please mention three,
starting with the most important.starting with the most important.
12
3
3
3
3
2
2
32
22
10
5
6
4
6
4
3
20
5
Electricity
Paving the roads
City appearance
Army
Patrol
Stability, peace
Regulate pensions/wage
Healthcare reform
International standing/recognition
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200731
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
4
3
4
3
2
2
2
2
25
185 18
Foreign policy
Education reform
Solving Adjaran separatism
Fight against crime
Infrastructure
Fight against corruption
Economic
Installation of fountains
Construction
Perspective of joining NATO
Nothing
DK/NA
First mentionAll mentioned
What are the three biggest failures of the Georgian government, if What are the three biggest failures of the Georgian government, if any? Please mention up to three, starting with the most important.any? Please mention up to three, starting with the most important.
14
13
9
6
4
3
19
16
12
11
8
4
9
4
Unemployment
Having conflict zones - Abkhazia, Ossetia
Bad relations with Russia
Rising prices
Low economic level
Loss of faith towards government
Selling of strategic objects
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200732
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
4
4
3
2
3
2
2
2
1
18
2
1
18
Encroachment of private property
Judicial reform
Restriction of human rights
Social problems
Rising costs for utilities
Educational reform
Murder of State Bank Int'l Dept. Head Girgvliani
Low pensions/wages
None
DK/NA
First mentionAll mentioned
In your opinion, is it important for Georgia to have a political In your opinion, is it important for Georgia to have a political opposition?opposition?
85
82
83
7
7
5
9
11
12
Apr. 2006
Feb. 2007
Sep. 2007
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200733
71
81
79
10
6
5
19
14
16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Oct. 2004
Jun. 2005
Oct. 2005
Yes, it is important No, it is not important DK
Why do you think opposition is important? (N = 1245)Why do you think opposition is important? (N = 1245)
15
11
11
11
10
6
4
4
Opposition awakes the ruling party
Act as a check on government
For an alternative to the ruling party
For the country to develop properly
For indicating mistakes of the government
Critique is obligatory
For common idea
To expose negatives of the ruling party
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200734
4
4
3
3
1
4
7
2
2
3
To expose negatives of the ruling party
Prevent one-man management
It stimulates discussion
For developing democracy
Position will also be strong
For mobilization of the government
The government is more active now
More problems will be solved
Other
DK/NA
Why do you think opposition is not important? (N = 74)Why do you think opposition is not important? (N = 74)
21
16
14
12
No need for so many contradictions
We don't have a healthy opposition
They don't carry out serious reforms anyway
Opposition talks much but doesn't do thework
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200735
8
8
7
2
1
12
They interfere with government
Nothing will change
The work is done without opposition
Opposition is closely connected togovernment
Opposition is the group of people behind thepolitics
DK/NA
What are three main issues on which the Mayor of Tbilisi needs to What are three main issues on which the Mayor of Tbilisi needs to focus? (Residents of Tbilisi focus? (Residents of Tbilisi –– N = 500)N = 500)
17
15
10
9
8
7
5
21
23
14
16
12
13
Taking care of the city's appearance
Creating an employment program
Cleaning the city
Caring for socially unprotected groups
Caring for the city's infrastructure
Peoples' prosperity
Increase of pensions/wages
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200736
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
11
5
10
4
4
3
2
2
2
77
Increase of pensions/wages
Paving the roads
Transport
Taking care of residential housing
Taking care of hospitals
Economic projects
Illumination - lighting the city
Protection of human rights
Caring for the outskirts
DK/NA
First mentioned
All mentioned
What are the three major achievements of Tbilisi Mayor Gigi What are the three major achievements of Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava? (Residents of Tbilisi Ugulava? (Residents of Tbilisi –– N = 500)N = 500)
13
9
6
6
29
21
14
18
9
19Roads
Creating a city cleaning service
Improving the city's appearance
Building squares
Installation of fountains
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200737
5
5
5
2
2
4
20
12
8
12
4
3
4
20
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Electricity
Lighting the city
Sports fields
School/kindergarten repair
Summer employment program for students
Nothing
DK/NA
First mentionAll mentions
What are the three major failures of Tbilisi Mayor Gigi What are the three major failures of Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava? (Residents of Tbilisi Ugulava? (Residents of Tbilisi –– N = 500)N = 500)
7
6
6
5
3
2
2
11
7
7
8
3
52
2
2
3
Raising the prices for transportation
Unemployment
Apartment confiscation
Encroaching on private property
Poor quality of roads
Installation of fountains
High utility prices
Ruining the buildings
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200738
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
43
3433
2
22
2
2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
No attention to citizens
No attention to people harmed during earthquake in 12/1988
Low pensions/salaries
Low social level of population
Mistrust in people
Not repairing buildings
High prices
Institution privatization / alienation
Nothing yet
DK/NA
First mentionAll mentions
If you think about your life in Soviet times, during If you think about your life in Soviet times, during E. Shevardnadze’s leadership and now, which period E. Shevardnadze’s leadership and now, which period
was best for you? was best for you?
DK/NA8%Now under M.
Saakashvili's leadership
27%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200739
During E. Shevardnadze's
leadership5%
Soviet times60%
Some people say that Stalin’s statue in Gori should be removed and Some people say that Stalin’s statue in Gori should be removed and destroyed because he did a lot of bad things for Georgia and the destroyed because he did a lot of bad things for Georgia and the world. Others do not agree with this opinion. What do you think? world. Others do not agree with this opinion. What do you think?
DK/NA7%
I agree that he did lots of bad things, thus the
statue should be removed and
destroyed5%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200740
I do not agree - he was a great leader and his
statue should be preserved
58%
I agree that he did lots of bad things, but the statue should not be
removed because it is good for tourism
30%
Which of the following opinions is closer to your own? Which of the following opinions is closer to your own?
DK/NA16%
Stalin was a bad leader and mass
murderer15%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200741
Stalin was a good leader and he
modernized and promoted the USSR
69%
How do you rate the government’s performance How do you rate the government’s performance
in trying to create jobs?in trying to create jobs?
Somewhat negatively29%
Somewhat positively14%
Very
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200742
Very negatively55%
DK/NA1%
Very positively
1%
In your opinion, are private property and property rights adequately In your opinion, are private property and property rights adequately protected in Georgia? protected in Georgia?
Not very well protected
34%
Somewhat protected20%
Very well protected2%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200743
2%
DK/NA3%
Not at all protected41%
What is your opinion about the increasing number of What is your opinion about the increasing number of
Chinese traders in Georgia?Chinese traders in Georgia?
It is a good thing because they sell
cheap items5%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200744
It is a bad thing for Georgia
92%
Other1%
DK/NA2%
Do you think that the elections in 2008 will be free and fair?Do you think that the elections in 2008 will be free and fair?
Not at all free and fair
20%
DK/NA10%
Mostly free and fair29%
Fully free and fair6%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200745
Mostly not free and fair
35%
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSINTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200746
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSINTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
How do you evaluate the current state of the relationship How do you evaluate the current state of the relationship between Georgia and…?between Georgia and…?
97
94
90
85
2
3
4
2
3
2
2
3
4
9
1Ukraine
USA
Azerbaijan
European Union
Good Neither good, nor bad Bad No answer
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200747
79
72
69
67
56
4
8
11
14
13
17
2
7
1
12
2
12
93
6
16
5
18
15
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Turkey
Lithuania
Armenia
Poland
Iran
Russia
Which countries are the most important partners for Georgia? Which countries are the most important partners for Georgia? Which comprise the biggest political and economic threat?Which comprise the biggest political and economic threat?
4844
70
Partners Threats
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200748
2520 20
9 8 63 2
5
12
1 2 0
7 60 0
1013
USA
Ukrain
e
Azerb
aijan
Europ
ean U
nion
Russi
a
Turkey
Armen
ia
Lithuan
ia
Polan
d
Iran
DK/NA
In your opinion, will the Georgian government improve relations In your opinion, will the Georgian government improve relations between Georgia and Russia?between Georgia and Russia?
29
15
31 22
1713
7 66
6 711
232
884
60
80
100
No opinion
Not at all likely
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200749
9
2010 13 16
21
49
59
4648
56
57
0
20
40
Sep. 2007 Feb. 2007 Apr. 2006 Oct. 2005 Jun. 2005 Oct. 2004
Not very likely
Somewhat likely
Very likely
Thinking about the future of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, do Thinking about the future of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, do you think that they should be…?you think that they should be…?
35 3231
3241
28
0.30.50.50.70.81112121
54 5654
60
80
100
No opinion
Independent
Autonomous republic
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200750
59 60 63 6052
66
0
20
40
Sep. 2007 Feb. 2007 Apr. 2006 Oct. 2005 Jun. 2005 Oct. 2004
Autonomous republicwithin RussianFederation
Autonomous republicwithin Georgia
Ordinary regions ofGeorgia, without anyautonomy
Do you think that the current situation with regard to the problems of Do you think that the current situation with regard to the problems of the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia should be resolved by the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia should be resolved by negotiations and peaceful means or should some force be used?negotiations and peaceful means or should some force be used?
7
109
986
343221
80
90
100
No opinion
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200751
91 92 90 8986 88
50
60
70
Sep. 2007 Feb. 2007 Apr. 2006 Oct. 2005 Jun. 2005 Oct. 2004
Use force if necessary
Negotiations andpeaceful means
In your opinion, which issue should be dealt with first by the In your opinion, which issue should be dealt with first by the Georgian government, the status of Abkhazia or Georgian government, the status of Abkhazia or
status of South Ossetia ?status of South Ossetia ?
23 24
1721 22
117 7
233024
767
60
70
80
90
100
DK/NA
Both at the same
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200752
36 40 3848
31
33
23 24
40
48
3224
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep. 2007 Feb. 2007 Apr. 2006 Oct. 2005 Jun. 2005 Oct. 2004
Both at the sametime
South Ossetia
Abkhazia
When, if ever, do you think South Ossetia will be back under the When, if ever, do you think South Ossetia will be back under the full control of the Georgian government?full control of the Georgian government?
191
2
2532
24 2819 20
10
47
141413
14
11
22
60
70
80
90
100
DK/NA
Never
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200753
1221
32
31
45
4520
5 5 96
33 36
1517
18
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep. 2007 Feb. 2007 Apr. 2006 Oct. 2005 Jun. 2005 Oct. 2004
In more than 6 years
In 3-6 years
In 1-3 years
In less than 1 year
In your opinion, is the government of Georgia properly handling In your opinion, is the government of Georgia properly handling the situation in South Ossetia and Abkhazia or not?the situation in South Ossetia and Abkhazia or not?
DK/NA29%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200754
Yes47%
No24%
In your opinion, is the fact that the 2014 Winter Olympic Games In your opinion, is the fact that the 2014 Winter Olympic Games will be held in Sochi, Russia* a good opportunity for Georgia to will be held in Sochi, Russia* a good opportunity for Georgia to
regain control of Abkhazia or not?regain control of Abkhazia or not?
Yes, it is a good opportunity
DK/NA36%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200755
37%
No, it is not a good opportunity
27%
36%
* - Sochi, Russia is in Krasnodar Krai which borders Abkhazia to the north.
Who do you believe is responsible for the incident in Kodori Who do you believe is responsible for the incident in Kodori Gorge in March 2007 when the Georgian government’s Gorge in March 2007 when the Georgian government’s
administration buildings were attacked?administration buildings were attacked?
DK/NA32%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200756
Other group was responsible for
attack7%
Abkhaz military was responsible for
attack7%
Russian military was responsible for
attack54%
In your opinion, will the Georgian government solve the problems In your opinion, will the Georgian government solve the problems related to Abkhazia and South Ossetia?related to Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
27
20
2317
13 10
33688
4671087 5
60
80
100
No opinion
Not at all likely
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200757
1218 18 19
2429
46
5343
48
5352
0
20
40
60
Sep. 2007 Feb. 2007 Apr. 2006 Oct. 2005 Jun. 2005 Oct. 2004
Not very likely
Somewhat likely
Very likely
In your opinion, should Georgia in the future…?In your opinion, should Georgia in the future…?
47
42
33
39
6 11
126
3
2
Join NATO
Join the European Union
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200758
42
8
39
16 27 34
12
16
6 2Join the European Union
Remain a member of theCommonwealth of
Independent States
Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no No opinion
What do you expect from NATO membership?What do you expect from NATO membership?
57
44
23
57
42
22
51
52
24
Security guarantees
Restoration of territorialintegrity
Social welfare
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200759
17
2
14
16
1
17
24
20
3
21
Strengthening ofdemocracy
Other
DK/NA
Sep. 2007
Feb. 2007
Apr. 2006
Do you have sufficient information about NATO to make an Do you have sufficient information about NATO to make an informed decision about whether Georgia should join NATO?informed decision about whether Georgia should join NATO?
19
24
72
69
8
7
Feb. 2007
Sep. 2007
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200760
21
19
71
72
8
8
0 20 40 60 80 100
Apr. 2006
Feb. 2007
Sufficient information Insufficient information DK/NA
When do you think Georgia will become a member of NATO?When do you think Georgia will become a member of NATO?
31 18 3612 3Sep. 2007
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200761
30 11 2 4116
0 20 40 60 80 100
Feb. 2007
In 2008 In 2010 In 2012 Never DK/NA
When will Georgia become a member of the European Union?When will Georgia become a member of the European Union?
12 32 15 3 2 36Sep. 2007
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200762
9 34 11 2 431
0 20 40 60 80 100
Feb. 2007
Next year In 5 years In 10 years In 20 years Never DK/NA
What is your opinion about the Georgian government’s What is your opinion about the Georgian government’s handling of relations with Russia before and during the recent handling of relations with Russia before and during the recent
Russian sanctions and economic blockade?Russian sanctions and economic blockade?
31
21
5
13 11
3
80
100DK/NA
Georgian government didnothing right in relationswith Russia
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200763
14 19
37
46
0
20
40
60
Sep. 2007 Feb. 2007
with Russia
Georgian governmenthandled many things badlywith Russia
Georgian government didsome things right in itsrelations with Russia
Georgian governmenthandled everything correctlyand was always right
How do you feel about the alternative South Ossetia How do you feel about the alternative South Ossetia government led by “President” Dimitri Sanakoev?government led by “President” Dimitri Sanakoev?
9
15 14
7
74
60
80
100
DK/NA
Have not heard about it
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200764
37 38
35 35
0
20
40
60
Sep. 2007 Feb. 2007
It is not good for Georgianinterests; it only contributesto destabilizing the situation
Neither success nor failure
This is a success; it is goodfor Georgian interests
In your opinion, should the Georgian government fulfill the In your opinion, should the Georgian government fulfill the Council of Europe obligations and allow Mekhsetan Turks to Council of Europe obligations and allow Mekhsetan Turks to
return to Georgia? return to Georgia?
12 76 12Sep. 2007
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200765
23
16
53
67
24
18
0 20 40 60 80 100
Apr. 2006
Feb. 2007
Yes No DK/NA
INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200766
What is your opinion about the work of each of these What is your opinion about the work of each of these institutions? Is it…?institutions? Is it…?
93
86
83
65
64
44
42
41
2
8
11
31
18
51
53
54
5
6
6
4
17
5
5
5
Church
Army
Georgian media
Police
Central Bank
Education system
President's office
Georgian Parliament
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200767
36
35
32
29
26
22
15
7
58
57
58
60
61
67
53
70
5
8
10
11
13
11
32
23
Government (Cabinet of Ministers)
Local authorities
Political parties
Prosecutor's Office
Governors
Courts
Trade unions
Mafia network
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
Do you support or oppose the government’s decision to prohibit Do you support or oppose the government’s decision to prohibit journalists from videotaping public court sessions?journalists from videotaping public court sessions?
Support12%
DK/NA9%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200768
Oppose79%
ETHNIC MINORITIESETHNIC MINORITIES
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200769
In your opinion, is Georgia a tolerant society?In your opinion, is Georgia a tolerant society?
62 25 13Sep. 2007
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200770
44
56
26
20
30
24
0 20 40 60 80 100
Apr. 2006
Feb. 2007
Yes No DK/NA
In your opinion, are the relations between Georgians and ethnic In your opinion, are the relations between Georgians and ethnic minorities in regions such as Kvemo Kartli and Samtskheminorities in regions such as Kvemo Kartli and Samtskhe--
Javakheti getting better or worse? Javakheti getting better or worse?
34 28 26 12Sep. 2007
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200771
26
32
38
22
19
25
17
21
0 20 40 60 80 100
Apr. 2006
Feb. 2007
Better Worse No change DK/NA
In your opinion, which religious groups or ethnic minorities In your opinion, which religious groups or ethnic minorities create problems for Georgian society? (up to three answers)create problems for Georgian society? (up to three answers)
39
3
2
1
42
5
3
3
Jehovah's Witnesses
Chinese
Armenians
Baptists
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200772
1
1
2
37
14
1
1
5
37
14
0 20 40 60
All except Orthodox believers
Muslims
Other
None
DK/NA
First mentioned
All mentioned
EMIGRATIONEMIGRATION
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200773
EMIGRATIONEMIGRATION
If you had a chance, would you go to another country to live? If you had a chance, would you go to another country to live?
Probably yes17%
Definitely yes21%
DK/NA2%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200774
Definitely no44%
Probably no16%
Why do you say so? Why do you say so? (Would go abroad (Would go abroad –– N=567)N=567)
74
17
To work and earn money
To get away from Georgiaand conditions here
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200775
5
3
1
0 20 40 60 80
To study
To join relatives andfriends who live abroad
already
Other
END OF PRESENTATIONEND OF PRESENTATION
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, IPM - GEORGIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, September 200776