Geopolitics and International Business Conflicts, Sea ...
Transcript of Geopolitics and International Business Conflicts, Sea ...
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Geopolitics and International BusinessConflicts, Sea power and Trade
Behind the curtain …
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History and conflicts analysis
� 1) Overview of conflicts � Why� Origins of conflicts � Historical insight into conflicts
� 2) Commercial power & sea power � Why sea power ?
� Insight into sea power building � International trade expansion and sea power
� 3) Case study: Sea power at work� The USA
� Japan � China
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Let’s talk about GDP
History and conflicts analysis
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History and conflicts analysis
� 1) Overview of conflicts � Why� Power and conflicts � Historical insight into conflicts
� 2) Commercial power & sea power
� Why sea power ?� Insight into sea power building
� International trade expansion and sea power
� 3) Case study: Sea power at work
� The USA � Japan
� China
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The ingredients of conflict
History and conflicts analysis
Needs
Power
Values Emotions
Perceptions
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Origins of conflicts (1)
History and conflicts analysis
Territory• Expand
power• Ability to
feed pop.
Resources• Water,
wood, food• Ore, oil, gas
Population• Slavery• Ethnic
purification
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Origins of conflicts (2)
History and conflicts analysis
Structural factors
• Weak states• Infrastructure• Security concerns• Ethnic geography
Political factors• Weak states• Discriminatory
political institutions• Exclusionary national
ideologies• Intergroup/ Elite
politics
Economic & social factors
• Economic problems• Discriminatory
economic system• Economic
development & modernization
Cultural and perceptual factors• Bloated security force• Cultural
discrimination• Group histories• Religions• Terrorism
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The concept of "power"
Core concept of International relations (realist approach) but ambiguous definition
“By power on the international scene I mean the capacity of a political body to impose its will on other bodies. In brief, political power is not
an absolute but a human relationship.” (R. Aron 1905 - 1983, Paix et guerre entre les Nations, 1962)
Origins of conflicts – Power
History and conflicts analysis
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Origins of conflicts – Power
History and conflicts analysis
Hard Power
Economic Power
Soft Power Multipolar / few organized
3D Chess game, J.S. Nye
Military powerHegemony of the USA
Multipolar / organized
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The concept of “Soft power"
“The ability to get what you want through attraction rather than through coercion”
(J. Nye, Bound to Lead, 1990)
� Contrasted with hard power (“carrots and sticks”)
� Nation can achieve its goals without tangible threats or payoffs
Origins of conflicts – Power
History and conflicts analysis
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History and conflicts analysis
� 1) Overview of conflicts � Why� Origins of conflicts � Historical insight into conflicts
� 2) Commercial power & sea power
� Why sea power ?� Insight into sea power building
� International trade expansion and sea power
� 3) Case study: Sea power at work
� The USA � Japan
� China
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Historical Evolution of War – Time line
History and conflicts analysis
Heroic(3000BC- ?)
Nomadic(2000BC-
1300)
Imperial(2000BC –
1700)
Feudal(500-1300)
Industrial (1850-1945)
Nuclear (1945-to date)
Cyber war (?)
Pre-Industrial (1650- 1850)
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Historical Evolution of War – Ancient timesHistory and conflicts analysis
Heroic Nomadic Imperial Feudal
Individual
• Bravery• Local• Spoils• No conquest
• Centralized power
Individual
• Victory• Mobility +++ • Raiding • No control
over territories• Nomad
Army
• Professional• Mobility• Taxes• Conquest
• Highly centralized
Political leaders
• Pro / farmers• Forts • Taxes ++• Local
conquest• Highly
decentralized
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TRANSITION FROM FEUDAL TO MODERN
� Military� 1450 - 1550: Use of gunpowder to destroy castles, economic
power became prerequisite for military power� 1532: The prince, Machiavelli (1469 - 1527) = military
conscription. � 1550 - 1650: Efficient centralized taxation
� Age of discovery � Marco Polo (1271 – 1295)� Great discoveries: 15th – 16th centuries
Historical Evolution of War – Early modern
History and conflicts analysis
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Marco Polo exploration (1271 – 1295)
Historical Evolution of War – Early modern
History and conflicts analysis
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Map of Age of discovery (source: wikipedia)
Historical Evolution of War – Early modern
History and conflicts analysis
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MODERN PRE-INDUSTRIAL (1650 - 1850: Limited War)
� Technological enhancement ( gunpowder + industrialization process / 1750)
� Centralization (state has the monopole of violence and taxation)
� Commercialization (trade /colonial wars)
Historical Evolution of War – Early modern
History and conflicts analysis
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INDUSTRIAL ERA (1850 – 1950 = Age of Total Wars)
� Major technological changes � Transportation (faster, farther, easier …)
� Production (industrialization = mass weapons production)
� Communication
� Major Political changes
� Karl Von Clausewitz (1780 – 1831) “War is merely a continuation of politics”, On War
� Max Weber (1864 – 1920) Define state as an entity which claims a “monopoly on the legitimate use of violence”
� Total wars => WWI & WWII
Historical Evolution of War – Modern
History and conflicts analysis
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NUCLEAR ERA (1950 – present)
� Cold War � “Political” war = Fight to expand political model � Nuclear arms race (1950-1995) / MAD
� 1990 – 2001 � Intrastate conflicts / Ethnic purification� Global availability of industrial weapons
� After 2001 � Terrorism & influence of militarized non-state actors� Geopolitics of energy ++� Nuclear weapons dissemination
Historical Evolution of War – Modern
History and conflicts analysis
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Historical Evolution of War – Time line
History and conflicts analysis
Industrial(1850-1945)
Nuclear (1945-to date)
Cyber war (?)
Aviation
(combustion engine)
Spatial
(jet engine; GPS)
Mass production Colonization International Global
Electromechanical Age
(1800 Telegraph, IBM 1896)
IT
(1954 1st generation)
ARPANET (1963) INTERNET
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History and conflicts analysis
1) Overview of conflicts
WhyOrigins of conflicts
Historical insight into conflicts
2) Commercial power & sea power Why sea power ?Insight into sea power building International trade expansion and sea power
3) Case study: Sea power at workThe USA
Japan China
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For whosoever commands the sea, commands the
trade. Whosoever commands the
trade of the world commands the riches of the world, and
consequently the world itself.
History and conflicts analysis
Sir Walter Raleigh(1552-1618)
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� 95 % live within 500 miles of the sea
� 66% live within 50miles of the sea
� 80 % of all states border on the coast
� 80 % of worlds capitals lie within 300 NM of shore
� Over 80% of world trade - by volume - being carried b y sea
� Inexpensive means of transport (30 times less)
� 152 of 195 (203) of the world’s nations are accessible by naval expeditionary forces
Why sea power – Humans and sea interactions
History and conflicts analysis
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Why sea power – Seaborne trade (1)
History and conflicts analysis
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Why sea power – Seaborne trade (2)
History and conflicts analysis
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Maritime trade routes
Why sea power – Maritime routes (1)
History and conflicts analysis
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Oil maritimes routes
Why sea power – Maritime routes (2)
History and conflicts analysis
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Oil maritimes routes, South Asia
Why sea power – Maritime routes (3)
History and conflicts analysis
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Oil importation dependance in Asia
Why sea power – Natural resources
History and conflicts analysis
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
350,0
Co
nsom
mat
ion
(en
milli
on d
e to
nne)
Chine Inde Japon Corée du Sud Taiwan
Pays
Import 2006
Prod 2006
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Territorial disputes in China Sea (Source : cat.middlebury.edu)
Why sea power – Natural resources
History and conflicts analysis
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Undersea Internet cable map
Why sea power – Undersea communication routes
History and conflicts analysis
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Submarine cable map
Why sea power – Undersea communication routes
History and conflicts analysis
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History and conflicts analysis
1) Overview of conflicts
WhyOrigins of conflicts
Historical insight into conflicts
2) Commercial power & sea power Why sea power ?
Insight into sea power building International trade expansion and sea power
3) Case study: Sea power at workThe USA
Japan China
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Sailing Ships
Galleys useless on Atlantic Ocean due to high sea states and poor weather.
Merchant ships developed into caravels and then galleons.Initially cannon are used to attack at longer range, then grappling hooks are used for boarding enemy ships.
Improvements in navigation.Magnetic compass and “dead reckoning”.Latitude / longitude .Allowed longer voyages away from land.
Sea power – Technological improvement
History and conflicts analysis
(source: NTROC)
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Industrial revolution
Sea power – Technological improvement
History and conflicts analysis
Before After
Propulsion Sail Steam
Armor Wood Iron
Weapons Solid shot Shell
(source: NTROC)
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Caraval Galleon Ship of the Line
History and conflicts analysis
Sea power – Technological improvement
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USS Mississipi, sidewheel steamer, 1842
History and conflicts analysis
Sea power – Technological improvement
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(Merchant marine) Containership Tankers
History and conflicts analysis
Sea power – Technological improvement
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Air Craft Carrier
History and conflicts analysis
Sea power – Technological improvement
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New waterway
Nov. 1869: Opening of Suez canal1956: Nationalization by Egypt and Suez crisis (ended by USSR / USA decision)
Sea power – Technological improvement
History and conflicts analysis
1880: First attempt to construct Panama canal (French)
� 1900: USA � 1914: opening
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Guerre de Escadre vs guerre de course
� Mahan (US) vs Corbett (UK) naval strategy � Mahan: control of the sea would grant the power to control the trade and
resources needed to wage war, focused on capabilities for decisive battle� Corbett: view of maritime strategy as both offensive and defensive, and
linked to lines of communication as the foremost imperative (blockade)
� Sea control / sea denial
� Maritime vs Continental Powers
� Stronger vs Weaker
Sea power – War at sea
History and conflicts analysis
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Sea power – Military forces ranking (2008)
History and conflicts analysis
Rank Country tonnage GDP
1st USA 2,900,000 t 1st
2nd Russia 1,100,000 t 6th
3rd China 850,000 t 2nd
4th UK 470,000 t 7th
5th Japan 432,000 t 3th
6th France 307,000 t 8th
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History and conflicts analysis
1) Overview of conflicts
WhyOrigins of conflicts
Historical insight into conflicts
2) Commercial power & sea power Why sea power ?Insight into sea power building
International trade expansion and sea power
3) Case study: Sea power at workThe USA
Japan China
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� Portugal: Prince Henry the Navigator� Bartholomew Diaz - Cape of Good Hope - 1486� Vasco da Gama - India - 1497 -- Conflict with Arabs.� Cabral - Brazil – 1500
� Spain - Large empire established in the Americas� Columbus - Americas - 1492
�- Named for Amerigo Vespucci (?)� Magellan - Circumnavigation of the Globe - 1519-1522� “The Conquistadors” of America
�- Balboa - Panama - 1513�- Ponce de Leon - Florida - 1513�- Cortez - Mexico (Aztec Empire) - 1520�- Pizarro - Peru (Inca Empire) – 1532
Sea power – Age of Exploration
History and conflicts analysis
(source: NTROC)
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� Treaty of Tordesillas - 1494� Papal division of the world to regulate exploration and
colonization by Portugal and Spain.
� England, Holland, and France begin exploration - 1500’s.� Ignore Treaty of Tordesillas.� European competition for overseas colonies begins.
� Mercantilism � Colonies needed to support economic growth.
Sea power – Early European Colonization
History and conflicts analysis
(source: NTROC)
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Great Britain fears France's threat to become militarily dominant in Europe
� Continental element� France Army 5-to1 to the British� Britain monetarily and militarily subsidies her continental
allies
� Maritime element� Britain prospered through commerce across the Atlantic� Royal Navy “shows the flag” from warships� Britain gaining timber and Naval supplies from the Baltic� Britain maintained a fleet twice the size of France
Sea power – Anglo-French Conflicts (1689-1775)
History and conflicts analysis
(source: NTROC)
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British Empire (source: Wikipedia) – "The Empire on which the sun never sets"
Sea power – Great Britain Mistress of the Seas
History and conflicts analysis
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History and conflicts analysis
� 1) Overview of conflicts
� Why� Origins of conflicts
� Historical insight into conflicts
� 2) Commercial power & sea power � Why sea power ?� Insight into sea power building
� International trade expansion and sea power
� 3) Case study: Sea power at work� The USA � Japan � China
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CAPT A. T. MahanThe Influence of Sea Power upon History 1660-1783 (1890)
Determined Sea Power was influential to growth of all great nations.
Used England as example and compared US to England.
Mahan's doctrine has guided the U.S. Navy since the 1890s
Sea power – The case of the USA
History and conflicts analysis
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United State expansion in Pacific (1800 – 1900)
Sea power – The case of the USA
History and conflicts analysis
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The US Navy as an instrument of FP � 19th century: Commercial expansion/Showing the flag
� 20th century: "Making the world safe for democracy"
Sea power – The case of the USA
History and conflicts analysis
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US navy – fleet locations
Sea power – The case of the USA
History and conflicts analysis
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History and conflicts analysis
1) Overview of conflicts
WhyOrigins of conflicts
Historical insight into conflicts
2) Commercial power & sea power Why sea power ?Insight into sea power building
International trade expansion and sea power
3) Case study: Sea power at workThe USA
JapanChina
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Brief overview of Japan history
1543: Europeans (Portuguese & Dutch) discover Japan
08/15/1549: Saint Francis Xavier (Spanish jesuit missionary) arrival in Kagoshima => introduction of Christianity.
1571: Daïmyo Omura Sumitada opens Nagasaki port to trade with foreign countries. (converted to christianity in1562).
1613: Shogun Tokugawa Yeyasu (Edo era), interdiction of Christianity
1638: Japan is closed to foreigners (except Chinese and Dutch protestants in Deshima Island)
Sea power – The case of Japan
History and conflicts analysis
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Sea power – The case of Japan
History and conflicts analysis
Opening of Japan
July 8,1853 four “black ships” led by USS Powhatan anchored at Edo (Tokyo) Bay.
Asked to proceed to Nagasaki / refuse / attack building around harbor.
Japanese government realized that their country was in no position to defend
itself against this foreign power
Commodore Perry
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Opening of JapanMarch 31, 1854 Treaty of Kanawaga
� Peace and friendship between the United States and Japan.
� Opening of two ports to American ships at Shimoda and Hakodate
� Help for any American ships wrecked on the Japanese coast and protection for shipwrecked persons
� Permission for American ships to buy supplies, coal, water, and other necessary provisions in Japanese ports.
Sea power – The case of Japan
History and conflicts analysis
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Current self defense forces of Japan
� WWII: army is dissolved
� 1954: creation of Japan self defense forces� Ground / Air / Maritime
� Large fleet with significant blue-water operating capabilities� Based on defensive armament� Maintain control and to patrol territorial waters
Sea power – The case of Japan
History and conflicts analysis
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History and conflicts analysis
1) Overview of conflicts
WhyOrigins of conflicts
Historical insight into conflicts
2) Commercial power & sea power Why sea power ?Insight into sea power building
International trade expansion and sea power
3) Case study: Sea power at workThe USA Japan
China
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Zheng He (鄭和, 1371 – 1433, Ming Dynasty 1368-1644)
三保太監下西洋 (Zheng He to the Western Ocean) 1405 – 1433
� 15th Century� Chinese put to sea a fleet larger and more powerful than
anything the world had ever seen.
� Fleet = 28,000 sailors on 300 ships (1588 - Spanish armada 130 ships, 30,000 men including 20,000 soldiers).
� Seven expeditions were meant as part � Diplomatic mission � Trade mission� Military force
Sea power – The case of China (1)
History and conflicts analysis
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History and conflicts analysis
Order Time Regions along the way [
1st Voyage1405-1407
Champa, Java, Palembang, Malacca, Aru, Sumatra, Lambri, Ceylon, Kollam, Cochin, Calicut
2nd Voyage 1407-1409 Champa, Java, Siam, Cochin, Ceylon
3rd Voyage 1409-1411Champa, Java, Malacca, Sumatra, Ceylon, Quilon, Cochin, Calicut, Siam, Lambri, Kaya, Coimbatore
4th Voyage 1413-1415Champa, Java, Palembang, Malacca, Sumatra, Ceylon, Cochin, Calicut, Kayal, Pahang, Kelantan, Aru, Lambri, Hormuz, Maldives, Mogadishu, Malindi, Aden, Muscat, Dhufar
5th Voyage 1416-1419Champa, Pahang, Java, Malacca, Sumatra, Lambri, Ceylon, Sharwayn, Cochin, Calicut, Hormuz, Maldives, Mogadishu, Barawa, Malindi, Aden
6th Voyage 1421-1422Hormuz , East Africa (Kenya) , countries of the Arabian Peninsula
7th Voyage 1430-1433Champa, Java, Palembang, Malacca, Sumatra, Ceylon, Calicut, Hormuz... (17 states in total)
Sea power – The case of China (2)
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Ming Dynasty 1368-1644Chinese fleet destruction
� At that time China and India together accounted for more than half of the world's gross national product.
� During the 1400s, China retreated into relative isolation� 1433: Zheng He died at sea � 1479: the vice president of the Ministry of War burned the court records
documenting Zheng He's expeditions; � Shipbuilding laws were implemented that restricted vessels to a small
size; decline of the Ming navy allowed the growth of piracy along China's coasts
� No counterattack, but Ming authorities chose to shut down coastal facilities and starve the pirates out, all foreign trade was to be conducted by the state under the guise of formal tribute missions
Sea power – The case of China (3)
History and conflicts analysis
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Ming Dynasty 1368-1644Chinese fleet destruction
� 1500: the Chinese government had made it a capital offense to build a boat with more than two masts
� 1525: The Government ordered the destruction of all oceangoing ships
The destruction of the fleet induced the stagnation of economic and technological expansion till the 18th century (Fairbank and
Levinson)
Sea power – The case of China (4)
History and conflicts analysis
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First Opium Wars (1839 - 1842)Brief historical insight� Opium was smuggled by merchants from British India into
China in defiance of Chinese prohibition laws. � Facing important health and political problems, Chinese
government decided to stop the illicit trade. � 1838: Lin Zexu is sent to Guangzhou to halt the illegal
importation of opium. � 1,700 Chinese opium dealers arrested � 70,000 opium pipes confiscated � resorted to use force � merchants gave up nearly 1.2 million kilograms of opium� Lin prepared for war against the possible British invasion => British force
was defeated numerous times in the Canton region� The British force was compelled to sail north to attack (unprepared)
Jiangsu and Zhejiang => easily landed
Sea power – The Case of China (5)
History and conflicts analysis
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First Opium Wars (1839 - 1842)Also know as first Anglo-Chinese War
� Treaty of Nanjing (first of the unequal treaties, 29 August 1842)
�negotiated aboard HMS Cornwallis anchored at Nanjing�granted an indemnity to Britain, �opening of five Ports (Shanghai, Ningbo, Xiamen, Fuzhou
and Guangzhou) �and the cession of Hong Kong Island, �ending the monopoly of trading in the Canton System�granted extraterritoriality and most favored nation status
to Britain (additional treaty of Humen).
Sea power – The Case of China (7)
History and conflicts analysis
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21st Century - Rising China
� Great strategy � Building Chinese navy’s capabilities (bought aircraft carrier from
Russia, new war ships class, new submarine …)� Expand China influence (string pearls strategy)� Importance of sea power to become a “full” power (Somalia
mission / peacekeeping/ piracy fighting)
� Energy supply security � Diversifying way of supply (land & sea)� Securing oil sea lanes / and oil supply � Securing maritime trade routes (piracy)
Sea power – The Case of China (8)
History and conflicts analysis
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Destroyer DDG 171 Haikou, DDG 169 Wuhan & Supply ship Weishanhu – Somalia mission
Sea power – The Case of China (9)
History and conflicts analysis
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Geopolitics and International BusinessConflicts, Sea power and Trade
Some definitions
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Tribe : consists of a social group existing before the development of states.
City-State : is an independent country whose territory consists of a city (eg
Athens, Sparta …, Singapore, Monaco, Vatican).
State : A sovereign state is a political association with effective internal and external sovereignty over a geographic area and population which is not dependent on, or subject to any other power or state. (Peace of Westphalia,
1648)
Nation : A nation is a body of people who share a real or imagined common history, culture, language or ethnic origin (E. Renan).
Empire : is a geographically extensive group of states and peoples (ethnic groups) united and ruled either by a monarch (emperor, empress) or an oligarchy
Definitions
History and conflicts analysis
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IGO: organization comprised primarily of sovereign states (referred to
as member states), or of other intergovernmental organization
NGO: non-governmental organization created by natural or legal persons with no participation or representation of any government.
Stateless nation: nation without State (Jews before Israel, Kurd, Palestinian …)
Nationless State: ?
Definitions
History and conflicts analysis
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Refers to the two peace treaties of Osnabrück and Münster, signed on May 15 and October 24, 1648, respectively, and written in French, that ended both the Thirty Years' War in the Holy Roman Empire (today mostly Germany) and the Eighty Years' War between Spain and the Republic of the Seven United Netherlands. The treaties involved the Holy Roman Emperor, Ferdinand III (Habsburg), the Kingdoms of Spain, France and Sweden, the Dutch Republic and their respective allies among the princes and the Free imperial cities of the Holy Roman Empire.
The Peace of Westphalia resulted from the first modern diplomatic congress and initiated a new order in central Europe based on the concept of state sovereignty. The regulations became part of the constitutional laws of the Holy Roman Empire. The Treaty of the Pyrenees, signed in 1659, ended the war between France and Spain and is often considered part of the overall accord.Source: Wikipedia
Peace of Westphalia
History and conflicts analysis
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Also known as the Age of Exploration, was a period in history starting in the 15th Century and continuing into the 19th Century, during which Europeans and European descendants explored the world by ocean searching for trading partners and particular trade goods. The most desired trading goods were gold, silver and spices. Western Europeans used the compass, new sailing ship technologies, new maps, and advances in astronomy to seek a viable trade route to Asia for valuable spices which would be uncontested by Mediterranean powers. In terms of shipping advances, the most important developments were the creation of the carrack and caravel designs in Portugal. These vessels evolved from medieval European designs from the North Sea and both the Christian and Islamic Mediterranean. They were the first ships that could leave the relatively placid and calm Mediterranean, Baltic or North Sea and sail safely on the open Atlantic.Source: Wikipedia
The Age of Discovery
History and conflicts analysis
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Conflict is a natural disagreement resulting from individuals or groups that differ in attitudes, beliefs, values or needs. It can also originate from past rivalries and personality differences.
Other causes of conflict include trying to negotiate before the timing is right or before needed information is available.
What is conflict?
History and conflicts analysis