Geographic determinants of rice self-sufficiency in Southeast Asia

7/30/2019 Geographic determinants of rice self-sufficiency in Southeast Asia

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Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)Food and Agriculture

Organization of the

United Nations

Geographic determinants of

rice self-sufficiency in

Southeast Asia

David Dawe, FAO

IRRI, 6 September 2013


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Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 2Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Food and Agriculture

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Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Rice trade status, 1904 2009


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The importance of geography

Consistent importers are all islands or peninsulas. This

phenomenon extends beyond SE Asia to Japan, Korea

and Sri Lanka.

Consistent exporters are all on the mainland, with

dominant river deltas that provide ample water and flat

land.

Bangladesh is a bit of an exception to the rule, as it is onthe mainland but is a (small) net importer.


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The importance of geography

This pattern is also true within countries. Southern

Thailand (a peninsula) imports rice from the rest of the

country, while Central Luzon (fed by the Pampanga

River) exports rice to Manila.


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Self-sufficiency

Self-sufficiency is determined by both supply and

demand.

But importers have the highest levels of wheatconsumption. Thus, the exporters have not achieved

self-sufficiency by eating less rice their advantage

comes from producing more rice.


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Wheat and rice consumption per capita

Rice importers eat more wheat


7/19Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 7Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific


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Rice production (paddy terms) per person, ASEAN

Mainland countries produce more rice




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Why is rice production per person low inthe importing countries?

Prod = rice production

POP = population

RA = rice area (harvested)




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Rice area harvested per person, ASEAN




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Rice yields, ASEAN




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Differences in rice production per person acrosscountries are mostly determined by differences in rice

area harvested per person, not differences in yield.

A regression of Prod/Pop on RA/Pop gives an R2 of0.78, while a regression of Prod/Pop on Prod/RA gives

an R2 of just 0.03.




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Why do different countries have different rice areaharvested per person?

RA = rice area (harvested)

POP = Population

TCA = total crop area (harvested)

AA = agricultural area

LA = land area

( S )




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A i lt l D l t E i Di i i (ESA)




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The R2 of a regression of RA/POP on RA/TCA is 0.74,

while the R2 of a regression of RA/POP on each of the

other three variables individually never reaches more

than 0.11. Even regressing RA/POP on the other threevariables jointly gives a negative adjusted R2 (compared

to an adjusted R2 of 0.70 for RA/TCA).

Thus, rice area harvested per person is determined

primarily by rices share in total cropped area.





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Average nominal domestic paddy prices, farm level, 1991-2006





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Rice prod/person vs. share of crop area devoted to rice





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Adoption rates of modern varieties, 1966 - 1997

How did the Philippines achieve

self-sufficiency in the 1980s?

Source of raw data: IRRI





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Consequences of the drive to self-sufficiency Domestic rice prices in importing countries tend to be

higher than in exporting countries, due to trade

restrictions.

Higher domestic prices, coupled with a shortage of land

suitable for growing rice, has led to more irrigation and

higher yields in the rice-importing countries.

Higher domestic prices have encouraged dietarydiversification to wheat.

Higher domestic prices lead to higher poverty rates and

greater malnutrition (trade-off between SS and food

security).

Agricultural Development Economics Division


19/19Los Baos Philippines 6 September 2013 19R i l Offi f A i d th P ifi


Organization of the

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Agricultural Development Economics Division

Thank you for your kind

attention

Geographic determinants of rice self-sufficiency in Southeast Asia

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