Volume 20 • Number 2 • may 2007

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GeodateIs it possible to take nothing but photographs, leave nothing but footprints and kill nothing but time?

The ‘holiday of a lifetime’ has become an expectation, with great consequences. Every 747 long-haul flight emits tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere and tourists drinking fresh bottled water add tonnes of plastic waste. Tourism has become significant in most national economies: in Australia it directly employs 6 per cent of the workforce, contributes A$73 billion in expenditure each year and exceeds 12 per cent of exports. Against these economic benefits there exists the risk of damage to environments and societies as carrying capacities are exceeded and cultural traditions challenged.

The 1980s saw the rise of sustainable tourism as the acceptable face of this ever-growing industry and marks an attempt to manage destinations in a more responsible manner. This article questions the sustainability of tourism in general and then considers the virtues of ecotourism as an example of one of the world tourism industry’s major growth areas.

Figure 1: Sustainability as a product of economic, social and environmental management

SustainabilitySince Brundtland’s assertion that it is the duty of the current generation to ‘meet today’s needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs’ there has been a strong move towards assessing the likely and actual impacts of economic development on both people and the natural environment. The transport, energy, water and waste components of every holiday merely extend the unsustainable practices of the traveller

SuStaiNability aNd touriSmby Russell H. Chapman

Senior Tutor, University College School, London

to new locations. While guests are encouraged to re-use their towels in an effort to reduce water consumption and the use of damaging detergents, it cannot be denied their very presence can pose a threat to the destination.

S T U D E N T A C T I V I T I E S1. To what extent is tourism a metaphor for the dilemmas facing

a consumer society? Environmentalist, Jonathan Porritt advocates that the simplest way to stop climate change would be to stop shopping. What other issues are involved in the pros and cons of tourism?

2. Gro Harlem Brundtland’s report ‘Our Common Future’ was published thirty years ago. How successful have holidaymakers been in recognising Bruntland’s message about sustainability—a message that involves a ‘marriage of economy and ecology’?

3. Refer to Figure 1 and compose a sentence that best expresses the ideas presented in the diagram.

Economic Sustainability—An Equitable EconomySustainable tourism attempts to avoid the perceived horrors (at least by some) of Australia’s Gold Coast and Spain’s Costas. Both areas share the high-rise skylines that came to represent commercial success in the 1960–1980s. Many such areas now display the traits of over-urbanisation, tackiness and excess. They have been left searching for rejuvenation to ensure survival. To these areas sustainability means survival in a competitive world along with hard engineering for coastal management, control of natural processes and the creation of ‘safe environments’.

Figure 2: Butler’s tourist destination life cycle

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Butler’s life cycle model illustrates an inevitable pattern and implies a need for careful management to remain economically sustainable. The timespan is inevitably unpredictable and random events such as 9/11, the terrorist strikes on Bali, Egypt and Spain, foot and mouth disease in the UK, SARS epidemic and the Boxing Day 2004 tsunami all serve as major setbacks to an industry that is volatile at best.

Social/Cultural Sustainability— A Vibrant CommunityLocal customs and values are frequently sacrificed in order to make a short-term profit and eventual ‘commodification’ of the indigenous culture takes place, together with standardisation of the facilities expected by tourists. ‘Staged authenticity’ replaces the real thing as tourists observe local life. Traditional crafts are violated to meet the demand for souvenirs and it is common for craftsmen to alter designs to suit tourist tastes—woodworkers in Bali’s Ubud district carve wooden giraffes with slotted necks to store CDs, yet the Balinese have no giraffes and few own CD players! Indigenous identities and values are eroded. Dietary change (disjuncture) occurs when demand for western foods and goods replaces local produce.

Figure 3: Doxey’s Irridex Table

Euphoria • low numbers of visitors• early phase of development with limited

planning or management• local community welcome visitors.

Apathy • as numbers of tourists increase the local community take their presence for granted

• outside influence on marketing and planning as tourism becomes more commercial.

Annoyance • some local misgivings as saturation point approaches

• big infrastructural changes designed to cope with increased significance of tourism.

Antagonism • irritation levels at peak as local people lose control and even experience loss of access to resources

• bad reputation threatens the industry and planners develop new strategies to offset negative images.

Misunderstandings and misinterpretations can develop when people of differing cultures meet. Traditions may be challenged or lost and a resentment of tourists can emerge. Doxey’s Irritation Index of 1975 suggests that a euphoric phase associated with the early gains from tourism is transformed into one of antagonism. The denial of access to certain beaches or resources is evidence of the way in which the arrival of tourists overshadows the needs of hosts. Eventual confrontation reinforces Butler’s view that numbers will decline and the reputation of a place is at stake—Australia’s Gold Coast and Spain’s costas illustrate this well enough.

If guests’ perceptions are tarnished in any way it is possible the sustainability of the location will be undermined. Champagne-sipping crowds watching the sunsets at Uluru compare negatively with the solitude and tranquility of the viewing areas overlooking the

Grand Canyon. Crowds will inevitably reduce the viewing experience and the incompatibility of different visitor groups may lead to animosity or conflict-—observing other visitors destroying the quality of the experience can cause problems.

S T U D E N T A C T I V I T I E S4. Refer to Figure 2 and explain the demographic composition

of the masses attracted to both the Gold Coast and the Costas.

5. Explain the meaning of the terms ‘commodification’ of the indigenous culture, ‘standardisation’ of the facilities expected by tourists, and ‘staged authenticity’.

6. Refer to Figure 3 and comment on the appropriateness of the title of the table.

Protection is not necessarily a solution either.

• most national parks/heritage sites have increased visitor numbers since being designated

• the Grand Canyon, Great Barrier Reef, Machu Picchu, Uluru, the Maldives and the Pyramids all feature in the top twenty ‘world’s treasures to see before you die’—they themselves are under increasing pressure

• some destinations have been designed to educate visitors about sustainability, yet they too create impacts—UK’s Eden Project, comprising one of the world’s most sustainable buildings, has attracted two million car-borne visitors since 2001, contributed £100m to the local economy and 5,205 tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere.

Going green and going places is not an easy task by any means. Adopting the mantra of the ecotourist by ‘taking nothing but photographs, leaving nothing but footprints and killing nothing but time’ is a romantic notion that provides little reward for the hosts. It ignores the wider issues related to actually getting to the destination or the inherent purpose of bringing some wealth to the local community.

EcotourismBut what is ecotourism? Is it really possible to preserve places of natural beauty, wildlife and indigenous cultures once tourists descend on them accompanied by their desire for the luxuries of life?

Figure 4a: The breaching of coastal carrying capacity—the Spanish Costas

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Figure 4b: Cultural violation—Mickey hits town

Figure 4c: Dietary disjuncture—the locals eat Big Macs

Figure 5: Definition of ecotourism

‘responsible travel to natural areas that conserves the environment and improves the well-being of local people’. This means that those who implement and participate in ecotourism activities should follow these principles:• minimise impact• build environmental and cultural awareness and respect• provide positive experiences for both visitors and hosts• provide direct financial benefits for conservation• provide financial benefits and empowerment for local

people• raise sensitivity to host countries’ political, environmental,

and social climate• support international human rights and labour agreements.

The International Ecotourism Society (TIES), 2003

The whole concept of ecotourism appears to be a contradiction in terms and it is difficult to imagine any location maintaining a neutral or zero ecological footprint while enjoying the benefits of tourism. Furthermore, a neutral impact might seem unlikely when the United Nations and World Bank are promoting tourism as a means of economic development for LEDCs. Even the relatively untouched coastlines of China are now being marketed as prime locations for the coastal holidaymaker.

It seems that ecotourism has a ‘role to play in conservation and the reduction of poverty in traditional communities in remote regions’ (WTO). It is therefore often characterised by small-scale activities with minimal impact on natural and social environments. In many cases it is a ‘high cost–low volume’ operation and attracts tourists of a particular income and background. There is a risk that it caters for the elite few and while established with good intentions can be viewed as a very specialised and selective element of the travel market. As revealed in Butler’s life cycle model, there is the added risk that where the wealthy have led the masses will follow and in no time at all the green credentials of ecotourism will be severely tested when remote locations become ‘closer’ and popular. Ecotourism therefore implies prioritising environmental and socio-cultural aspects at the expense of purely economic gains. The sad demise of the black rhino in Kenya is testimony of how fast a trade based on seeing nature’s wilderness can be transformed into ‘low cost–high volume’ destruction.

S T U D E N T A C T I V I T I E S7. Refer to Figure 4a. What kinds of problems are caused by

this sort of development?8. Refer to Figures 4b and 4c. What might be the effects of

such developments on local diets, lifestyle and forms of employment?

9. Refer to Figure 5. Are there any other considerations that you could add to this list?

10. What is meant by the acronym LEDC?11. What is the author’s essential message illustrated by the sad

demise of the black rhino?

Australia is a good example of how the development of ecotourism has grown from a very low base in the 1980s to a sector perceived as having great potential by the late 1990s. By 1994 the Ecotourism Association of Australia was publishing a range of policies designed to encourage this sector and, in line with Butler’s model, the number of travellers and operators has expanded dramatically. The Nature and Ecotourism Accreditation Program (NEAP) defines ecotourism as ‘nature-based tourism that involves education and interpretation of the natural environment and is managed to be ecologically sustainable’. Criteria are then applied to judge whether the activity qualifies as ecotourism. Activities that generate more positive net benefits are therefore defined as more sustainable than those that generate fewer positive net benefits.

Ecotourism may only be truly sustainable if operated on a small scale-as the flow of travellers increases so the inherent weaknesses of this form of activity are realised. Whether the visitor is a young backpacker with limited money or a mature traveller with high surplus income their impacts are serious. Furthermore ‘the person who has jetted in from Europe to Australia and spends a day with Quicksilver on the Great Barrier Reef is just as much an ecotourist as the local resident who chooses to spend a weekend camping in the neighbouring national park’ (NEAP).

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Figure 6: Possible criteria for measuring ecotourism’s sustainability

Criteria for economic sustainability Criteria for social/cultural sustainability Criteria for environmental sustainability

• extends range of economic benefits to the greatest possible number of people at all scales—local, regional, national, international and global—and at all levels of society

• likely to make people better off in the medium- to long-term, as well as short-term

• focuses on infrastructural changes that bring economic benefits to people through social welfare improvements, e.g. sees education and health care as part of infrastructural change that will bring benefit to society, as well as to individuals.

• the benefits of tourism extend to the maximum number of people

• local people are able to afford land, homes and basic commodities in the tourist area

• jobs and social benefits of tourism are long-lasting

• cultural traditions have been retained and their values secured

• the local community is involved in the planning and development of the tourist industry.

• pollution levels are no greater than before tourism commenced

• stock resources are not exploited at a rate faster than renewal or at least are not consumed without due consideration of alternatives

• contributes to the conservation of special environments by raising awareness of natural systems and processes

• conserves and protects rare species and special environments

Figure 7: Who are the ecotourists and why are they increasing in number?

Who are the ecotourists?Lindberg (1991) provides a typology of nature/ecotourism types, though many other typologies are possible

Why the numbers have increased (FAO)

Hard-core: scientific researchers or members of tours specifically designed for education, environmental restoration, or similar purposes. Dedicated: people who take trips specifically to see protected areas and who want to understand local natural and cultural history. Mainstream: people who visit the Amazon, the Rwandan gorilla park or other such destinations primarily to take an unusual trip. Casual: people who partake of nature incidentally, such as through a day trip during a broader vacation.82 per cent are college graduates and are willing to pay more than the average tourist. The typical ecotourist is 35–54 years.

• increasing environmental awareness and interest, including the desire to be perceived by others as environmentally sensitive

• increased media exposure to natural areas around the world• related to the above two, a desire to see natural areas before

they disappear• increasing dissatisfaction with traditional tourism destinations

and products and a desire for more educative and challenging vacations

• desire to go to novel destinations, sometimes as a way to ‘outdo’ others, e.g., to be the first person one knows who has been to Antarctica

• easier access to remote ecotourism destinations through development of air routes, roads, and other infrastructure.

Figure 8: Environmental impacts of ecotourists in sensitive areas

Direct environmental impacts Indirect environmental impacts

• wildlife disturbance• trampling of vegetation• removal of vegetation• accidental introduction of exotic species• increased frequency of fire• litter and vandalism• soil erosion and compaction.

• reclamation of land for infrastructure• generation of solid waste• water and air pollution• use of endangered species as souvenirs, e.g. butterflies, coral.

Case Study: Posada AmazonasDeep in the Amazon rainforest of south-eastern Peru lies the Posada Amazonas. The area achieved protected status in 1991 with permission for small-scale developments involving local stakeholders. Bahuaja-Sonene National Park and the ecolodge, Posada Amazonas, were established in 1996. The local community of Infierno in partnership with Rainforest Expeditions (Peru) manages the 30-room ecolodge. According to research by Amanda Stronza (2001), the project offers tourists insights to the forest environment and boosts the economy of the indigenous people.

Sustainability in the strictest sense implies the retention of local values and yet ecotourism demands the acquisition of some market values. Authenticity is a marketable asset and requires maintenance. Successful ecotourism also needs to develop new income sources and employment for the resident population while encouraging them to care for their surrounding environment. Tourism reduces the need to clear the forests for timber sales or cash crops for export.

By making ‘commodities of culture and nature’ it is clear that the indigenous people are required to alter their value

systems—they are after all ‘selling their identity, culture, home, way of life’ (Stronza). A 60/40 per cent profit-sharing agreement favouring the Infierno community exists and the partner company, Rainforest Expeditions, manages the operations and staff, with the Infierno assuming full responsibility by 2017. While the financing, staff training, marketing and clientele comes from the company, the local population provide the knowledge, labour, access to the land (10,000 hecatres of it), culture and prime location for wildlife observations.

S T U D E N T A C T I V I T I E S12. Refer to Figure 6. Which of the three possible criteria has

been dominant in the past thirty years. Identify some of the inherent contradictions in the three sets of criteria? Identify the criteria that you value the most.

13. Refer to Figure 7. Explain why the notion of an ‘ecotourist’ is multi-faceted? To what extent to fashions and fads, mass media and increased disposable income affect increasing numbers of ecotourists?

14. Which of the environmental impacts of ecotourism are most important-direct or indirect impacts?

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Ecotourism at Posada has offered an alternative path to development with an emphasis on sustaining local habitats. Posada is not some detached relic of the past—television and radio have already seen to that. The Infierno possess aspirations of progress and the project does not deny anyone the right to an improved or different standard of living. The daily ritual of 40–50 tourists arriving by dugout canoe is barely intrusive and represents an opportunity rather than a threat. Following positive media coverage by the BBC/Discovery Channel, economic sustainability was secured through funding from external sources, including the World Bank. Handicrafts are sold as souvenirs and children of the forest now perceive the economic value of local fauna and flora. As income from ecotourism conflicts with earning a living from more traditional activities, it is not surprising that four years after the project was established the ‘normal subsistent activities do seem to be subsiding’ (Stronza 2001). Equally, modern tools are being used to harvest trees and cultivate the land and motorboats have replaced canoes.

Tourism places a price on natural species and as tourists arrive so their value rises as does the significance of protection. Ecotourism adds to the sustainability and is reinforced by the role of the indigenous community as stakeholders. Local farmers gain as their market extends to both tourists and those who no longer have time to farm, although there is a need to designate land for domestic production. A proposed new road designed to boost development was rejected by the community in fear of the impacts on the wildlife; the very attractions that tourists come to see.

How Can Genuine Sustainability Be Assured?The Nature and Ecotourism Accreditation Program, established in 1992, seeks to promote and innovate best practice. Since then NEAP and Green Globe, among others, have pressed for international certification and developed the International Ecotourism Standard. Based on Agenda 21, the Australian Eco Certification Program and encompassing principles for sustainable development, the international ecotourism standard has been endorsed by 182 governments worldwide. The International Ecotourism Society and the WTTC through it’s Blueprint for new tourism (October 2003) promote these approaches globally and individual countries are developing their own bodies. Ecotourism Australia awards certificates in accordance with these principles. Inevitably, individual operators see advantages in displaying their eco-conscience.

Figure 9: Daintree Ecolodge and Spa

• extensive energy and water-saving measures and recycling are high priorities

• the villas and other buildings are built from recycled and recyclable materials

• pesticide use is carefully controlled• ecological and cultural presence of the lodge and spa

has been carefully addressed to ensure that this is a truly sustainable project.

The Daintree Ecolodge and Spa, located in the world heritage area, boasts strong controls over energy consumption, waste disposal, food supplies, construction materials, Aboriginal cultural experiences and wildlife

conservation. It comprises lavishly furnished and air-conditioned suites. Close links with the Kuku Yalanji Aboriginal people ensures authenticity through art workshops and performances. Self-proclaimed sustainability dominates the marketing literature of the multinational parent company and tourist numbers are increasing.

ConclusionIndependent certification of the ecotourism product together with education of the tourist may eventually secure the eco-credentials of this industry and ensure genuine sustainability.

S T U D E N T A C T I V I T I E S15. Ideally, what might be the effects of ecotourism on forest

clearing?16. What is the essential trade-off in ‘selling identity, culture,

home and way of life’?17. Explain how positive media coverage by the BBC/Discovery

Channel might help or hinder ecotourism ventures at Posada Amazonas.

18. How might infrastructure developments detract from the success of the project?

E X T E N S I O N A C T I V I T I E SInvestigation1. Investigate tourism ventures along the Mediterranean coast

of Spain: Costa Brava, Costa Dorada, Costa del Azahar, Costa Blanca, Costa Calida, Costa Almeria, and Costa del Sol.

Discussion and debate2. With regard to proximity to the Mediterranean Sea and

the Pacific Ocean, discuss the additional problems that developments on the Gold Coast may experience when compared to the Spanish Costas.

3. After careful consideration: ‘is it possible to take nothing but photographs; leave nothing but footprints and kill nothing but time?’

4. If the Daintree Ecolodge were built of tropical timber sourced from New Guinea what might be the conflicting messages about such a ecotourism venture?

ReferencesEcotourism Australia 2006, Eco Certification Program, Brisbane,

<www.ecotouris.org/eco-certification.asp>.Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2006,

Corporate Document Repository, FAO, Geneva, <www.fao.org/documents>.

Green Globe 2006, <www.greenglobe.org>.Schaller, David 1995, Indigenous ecotourism and sustainable

development: the case of the Rio Blanco Ecuador, University of Minnesota.

Stronza, Amanda 2001, Revealing the true promise of community-based ecotourism: the case of Posada Amazonas, Stanford University.

The International Ecotourism Society (TIES) 2006, Washington DC, <www.ecotourism.org >.

Townsend, Mark 2002, ‘Car fumes blight Eden’s green vision’, The Observer, Sunday 2 June.

World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) 2003, Blueprint for new tourism, WTTC, London.

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A Fishy BusinessThe term El Niño has been used for centuries by Peruvian fishermen to describe the unusually warm waters that occasionally form along the western coastlines of South America, in particular those of Ecuador and Peru. This phenomenon typically occurs late in the year towards Christmas, and for this reason was named El Niño, which is Spanish for ‘boy child’. Local fishermen dread this movement of warm water along the coastline, because it lacks nutrient and results in decimation of a variety of fish types across the area, including one of the main harvests—the anchovy. Sea birds depending on these fish for survival also die, and during an El Niño the coastline of Peru becomes littered with the bodies of dead fish and birds, which empty large quantities of hydrogen sulphide gas into the water. This gas attacks and blackens the paintwork along the hulls of the local fishing vessels and led to the term ‘Callao Painter’, which was coined by sailors using the port of Callao.

Much Bigger Than We ThoughtToday, the term El Niño is used to refer to the much broader scale phenomenon of unusually warm water occasionally forming across much of the tropical eastern and central Pacific. These El Niño events do not occur in any precise cycle but, broadly speaking, tend to recur every four to seven years and typically last for around 12 to 18 months.

Figure 1: Sea surface temperature anomalies across the Pacific Ocean during the El Niño of November 1997

This diagram shows sea surface temperature anomalies across the Pacific Ocean during the El Niño of November 1997. Temperatures up to 4˚C above average spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific during this time.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Sir Gilbert Walker—Climate DetectiveThe knowledge jump that linked the ‘El Niño’ of the Peruvian fishermen with the much larger scale warming of the tropical central and eastern Pacific ocean came largely through the work of Sir Gilbert Walker, a Director-General of British Observatories in India. Early in the 1900s, Walker, sorting through piles of meteorological

records from around the world, realised that there was a connection between sea surface temperatures and barometric pressures across the tropical Pacific ocean and rainfall in both Australia and India. In what was to be one of the key developments of meteorology during the 20th Century, Walker developed a theory that accounted for this by proposing the existence of a vertical atmospheric circulation regime across the tropical Pacific Ocean, and this was later named the ‘Walker Circulation’.

Figure 2: Walker circulation patterns

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Walker reasoned that to a large extent, tropical rain tends to follow the warmest ocean areas because the air above the ‘hot spots’ tends to rise, and this promotes cloud formation.

In most cases the prevailing easterly ‘trade winds’ push the warmest water across the western Pacific to the northeast of Australia. The Walker circulation then adopts a ‘twin cell’ formation with a rising area between, somewhere to the north of Australia. In these cases rainfall across eastern Australia is usually average or, in some occasions, above.

In other, more unusual circumstances, the equatorial winds reverse, and the warmer water gets pushed back across to the central and equatorial Pacific ocean, producing an increase in sea surface temperatures along the northern part of the South American coastline—the fabled El Niño of the Peruvian fishermen! In this case, the Walker circulation breaks up into several different cells, with the rising areas (corresponding to increased cloud and rainfall) retreating well away from Australia.

uNderStaNdiNg el Niñoby Richard WhitakerThe Weather Channel

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S T U D E N T A C T I V I T I E S1. Why do El Niño episodes cause dismay in Ecuador and Peru?2. State the average duration and spacing between El Niño

events.3. Refer to Figure 1 and describe the shape of the band of

warmer water that extends westwards from the coasts of Ecuador and Peru.

4. Explain the origin of the term ‘Walker circulation’.5. Refer to Figure 2 (Walker circulations patterns) and explain

why large banks of rain clouds are found above areas with warmer water. What happens to the trade winds near Tahiti in El Niño events? Describe the vertical movement of parcels of air in zones of high and low pressure.

It’s A Dry ArgumentWeather records have been collected in Australia for nearly 150 years and these have clearly revealed that we suffer from periodic droughts over much of the country, interspersed with years of plentiful rainfall. Since the mid 1850s we’ve seen some 11 major droughts across the country and research has revealed that most of these have been associated with the development of the El Niño phenomenon. Recently the Bureau of Meteorology compiled a map that neatly summarises the effect of El Niño on Australian rainfall.

Figure 3: Twelve El Niño years

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

The Bureau analysed the winter and spring rainfall across Australia during 12 El Niño years (1905, 1914, 1940, 1941, 1965, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1991, 1994 and 1997). Figure 3 clearly shows that widespread areas of below-average rainfall (shades of yellow and red) resulted across much of eastern and south-western Australia, including Tasmania, during these years.

When Will The Drought Break?When El Nino produced droughts ravage Australia, the most frequently asked meteorological question quickly becomes ‘when will the drought break’? El Niños tend to go through a life cycle and more often than not will break during late February to early March, sometimes heralding a gradual return to a more normal rainfall pattern across eastern Australia, and in others tipping over to a massive series of flood events. In 1974, the El Niño of the previous year broke spectacularly, with widespread flooding

occurring across much of south-eastern Queensland, including Brisbane, and Lake Eyre eventually filling to its highest level in recorded history. The flooding across this area was so great that the lake resembled an inland sea, with fish appearing and seabirds such as pelicans travelling hundreds of kilometres inland to visit the area.

El Nino’s Little Sister—La NiñaLa Niña can be thought of as the reverse to El Niño and is characterised by cooler than normal ocean temperatures across much of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific. A La Niña event often, but not always, follows an El Niño and vice versa. La Niña events are usually associated with increased rainfall across eastern and central Australia, and to illustrate this the Bureau of Meteorology looked at winter and spring rainfall during twelve La Niña years using the same methodology as in we saw in Figure 3, above. These years were 1910, 1916, 1917, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1956, 1971, 1974, 1975, 1988 and 1998.

Figure 4: Twelve La Niña years

The La Niña footprint shows up clearly as large areas of above average rainfall (green and shades of blue) across much of mainland Australia and Tasmania.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

S T U D E N T A C T I V I T I E S6. Refer to Figure 3 (Twelve El Niño Years) and describe the

location of the area designated as decile 2, with below average rainfall during the 12 moderate—strong classical El Niños.

7. What was unusual about the weather sequences following the 1974 El Niño?

8. What happens to ocean temperatures during a La Niña event?

9. Refer to Figure 4 (Twelve La Niña Years) and identify the areas of above average rainfall (deciles 8 and 9). Why would an early wet monsoon season affect these events in northern Australia?

What is ENSO?During an El Niño, sea level atmospheric pressure tends to be lower in the eastern Pacific and higher in the west, while the opposite tends to occur during a La Niña. This see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific is called the Southern Oscillation, or SO. A standard measure of the Southern Oscillation is the averaged difference in sea level atmospheric

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pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, and this is called the Southern Oscillation Index or SOI. Sustained negative values of the SOI often indicate El Niño episodes, and persistent positive values are often linked with La Niña events. Since El Niño and the Southern Oscillation are closely related, the two terms are often combined into a single phrase, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, commonly abbreviated to ENSO. The Southern Oscillation Index tends to vary widely from year to year, and the link between SOI and rainfall across eastern Australia is strongest during winter and spring.

Figure 5: Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

Here we display six-month (April to December) average SOIs from 1876 to 2006, with all the years having values less than minus 10 noted on the graph (14, for example, denotes 1914). Looking at the 15 of these occasions that occurred in the last Century, 12 were years when significantly below-average rainfalls over large areas of Australia.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Figure 6: Areas most consistently affected by El Niño

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

El Niño Goes InternationalRecent research has indicated that the effects of El Niño stretch much further than Australia and the South Pacific. Statistical analyses show that an El Niño can produce a variety of complex rainfall and temperature variations right around the world. These include wetter than average conditions across the central Pacific and parts of South America, and drier than normal weather for Indonesia, New Guinea and, as already noted, much of eastern Australia. Interestingly warmer than average temperatures are often an El Niño consequence over parts of North America.

Can We Predict El Niño?Over the last thirty years or so climate scientists have greatly increased their understanding of the El Niño phenomenon. From the old knowledge of a mysterious warm current that sometimes moves along the coast of South America, we now know it to be a massive warming of the ocean across tropical Pacific areas that affects the weather right around the world. This increased understanding has also enabled seasonal outlooks—that utilise our knowledge of sea surface temperatures—to be issued up to three months ahead. The Bureau of Meteorology’s National Climate Centre began these in 1989, and since then increasing skill in forecasting the onset and decline of El Niños has steadily evolved.

The ability to accurately forecast the onset and cessation of drought has not yet been developed, but our increasing knowledge of El Niño has put us well on track, and this goal should be realistically achievable over the next few decades.

ReferencesBureau of Meteorology, El Niño, La Niña and Australia’s climate, Bureau of

Meteorology, Melbourne.

Whitaker, R. 2006, Australia’s Natural Disasters, New Holland Publishing, Sydney

Bureau of Meteorology website, <www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#basics>, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne.

F U R T H E R A C T I V I T E S10. Explain the acronyms SO, ENSO and SOI.

11. Refer to Figure 5 (Southern Oscillation Index) and count the number of times that the SOI has exceeded 10. How might this affect Australian rainfall totals?

12. Describe some of the possible effects of El Niño events on the central Pacific and parts of South America, and Indonesia and New Guinea.

13. Refer to Figure 6 (Areas most consistently affected by El Niño) and describe probable affects on North American and sub-Saharan weather patterns.

14. How far ahead can the Bureau of Meteorology produce viable seasonal outlooks?

15. ‘The impact of climate variability on Australia has been highlighted by the fluctuating events during the 1990s. While Queenslanders suffered drought for much of the first half of the decade, people in southeast Australia contended with severe spring floods in 1992 and 1993. Drought spread nationwide in 1994, but the pendulum swung the other way in 1995 and 1996 as heavy rain and flooding returned to many parts. Drought once again visited the southeast of the country during 1997 and 1998’ (Bureau of Meteorology). Explain the probable connection of the ENSO to these events.

16. Research El Niño on the Bureau of Meteorology website at <www.bom.gov.au/> and on the Weather Channel—WeatherEd website at <www.weatherchannel.com.au/WeatherEd/FlashSplash.htm>

General Editor: Bronwen Perry, Freelance Editor and Publishing ConsultantStudent activities prepared by: Nick Hutchinson, Geography educator and writer, Macquarie University

Editorial Board: Bronwen Perry, Jeana Kriewaldt, Colin Hobbs

geoSouNdiNgS by Nick Hutchinson

Geography educator and writerMacquarie University

A ‘black planet’ in northern Australia?Picture a good-part of tropical Australia in 2050. North of a line stretching from Townsville to Broome the great majority of the population will be Aboriginal. The ABC radio program, Awaye, spoke of ‘fear of a black planet’ with a dystopian vision of ‘town camps on the fringes of the main population centres already looking like miniature versions of the black townships of Johannesburg under apartheid. Every indicator, from health, education and employment, to suicide, incarceration and murder, is marked by a racial divide that has the Aboriginal population among the worst-off on the planet’ (Collins 2007a).

Rural Australia is arguably going through a transition from mining and the production of food and fibre to a much more complex, multifunctional countryside. Nowhere is this more evident than in the rangelands of northern Australia where a scattered, thinly spread pastoral industry is being impacted by Indigenous occupation, conservation and tourism.

Such changes are based on a different set of values from the market-oriented values that underpin mining and pastoralism. New outback values are based on ‘more value, but less cash’—national recognition of Indigenous land rights and enhanced conservation values of natural vegetation and landscape. Non-Indigenous pastoralists have deserted much of the more submarginal country in the northern part of the savanna belt. Their practice of harvesting rather than husbandry of cattle became increasingly untenable in the wake of brucellosis and tuberculosis eradication campaigns. Even in the better pastoral districts, such as the Barkly Tablelands, population densities have been falling in the wake of the introduction of 4WDs, trailbikes, helicopters and ultralites for stock work. Mining has increasingly become a ‘fly-in, fly-out’ venture with few opportunites for local employment and meagre amounts of capital injected into the local community (Holmes 2002).

The future success of Aboriginal occupance of the Kimberleys, the Territory and the Gulf Country will depend on community acceptance of and adaptation to these changes. Leave aside the severe economic and social problems affecting remote communities—the endemic poverty, child abuse, molestation, petrol sniffing and the plague of spreading kidney failure—all made worse by welfare dependence and the dislocation suffered by several generations. Let’s envisage a more optimistic future.

True, there will be even fewer jobs in mining in 2050 but Indigenous people must work with the miners.

The experience of the outstation housing the Gumatl clan on the pristine beaches of the Gove Peninsula and Alcan’s expansive bauxite operation is instructive. Alcan induct new workers into the culture of the local Aboriginal people and ‘instead of meeting drinkers in town, begging for change, new workers at the mine go fishing and hunting with proud Arnhem-landers and learn to treat the environment and the people with respect’ (Collins 2007b).

Other remote outstations dot the northern coastlines. There is usually at least one person in each outstation trained to do autopsies on dead animals and supply samples of diseased tissue to the Australian Quarantine service. The Djelk rangers at Maningrida, for example, are part of a highly mobile, well-trained organisation, equipped with radio communications, and on the lookout for illegal fishing operations, but they are funded solely by the work-for-the-dole scheme. All this valuable work deserves proper payment rather than dole handouts (Collins 2007a).

Of course, there are many other successful ventures. Indigenous Australians are successful pastoralists and some twenty-five per cent of the artists of Australia actually live in the Northern Territory. However, the Aboriginal music industry is relatively undeveloped. In high schools where music is offered as a viable option, retention rates increase. Other enterprises include a joint project with Macquarie Bank at Titjikala, 70 kilometres south of Alice Springs where tourists actually sit down and talk to the people about Tijikala culture and law; industries of the future, like carbon trading, water trading and land management, that will form the basis of sustainable economies in remote locations; seed harvesting for revegetating mine sites; crocodile hatcheries; and bush tucker initiatives—selling bush tucker to restaurants (Collins 2007a).

The future for the ‘black planet’ will depend on partnerships, shared visions and the support of all Australians. This preferable future must revolve around respect for land, language and Indigenous culture (Rothwell 2007).

ReferencesCollins, Tony (Producer) 2007a, ‘Fear of Black Planet: Part 1’, Awaye,

Radio National, 3 February, accessed at <www.abc.net.au/rn/awaye/stories/2007/1836130.htm>.

Collins, Tony (Producer) 2007b, ‘Fear of Black Planet: Part 2’, Awaye, Radio National, 10 February, <www.abc.net.au/rn/awaye/stories/2007/1840302.htm>.

Holmes, John 2002, ‘Diversity and change in Australia’s rangelands: a post-productivist transition with a difference’, Transactions of The Institute of British Geographers, vol. 27, pp. 362–384.

Rothwell, Nicholas 2007, Another Country, Black Inc., Melbourne.