© Oxford University Press 2015 Series 26, Issue 2, January 2015 1

533GEOACTIVEChina: Coping with an ageing population

By Barbara Melbourne

A case study about population issues in ChinaThis case study looks at population problems in China,

and particularly at the issue of ageing, which is now a

worldwide problem. Ageing means there are more

dependent people in a country and fewer workers to

support them. These elderly people have a greater demand

for healthcare, medical and social care. They contribute

very little to the economy but are very costly to the

country. China currently has the largest population in the

world, and increasingly many millions of those people are

elderly, which will put a great strain on the country’s

resources in the future.

This case study covers:

• causes of ageing in China

• coping with ageing: pensions, family, retirement age

• changes in the workforce

• providing health, medical and social care, and housing

• recent developments to cope with the ageing population

of China.

Key vocabularydependent people, life expectancy, ‘one child is good’ policy, pensions, fi lial piety, retirement age

Learning outcomeAt the end of this case study, you will have learned about

the various issues associated with an ageing population.

Relevance to specifi cationsAQA A Unit 2: Human Geography, Section A,

Population Change, page 16

http://fi lestore.aqa.org.uk/subjects/AQA-9030-W-SP-14.PDF

AQA B Unit 1: Managing Places in the 21st Century, the Urban Environment, page 17

http://fi lestore.aqa.org.uk/subjects/AQA-9035-W-SP-14.PDF

Edexcel A Unit 3: The Human Environment, Section A, The Human World, Topic 3, Population Change, page 36

http://www.edexcel.com/migrationdocuments/GCSE%20New%20GCSE/9781446911907_GCSE_Lin_Geog_A_Issue_5.pdf

Edexcel B Unit 2: People and the Planet, Section A, Introduction to the People and the Planet, Topic 1, Population Dynamics, page 22

http://www.edexcel.com/migrationdocuments/GCSE%20New%20GCSE/9781446911914_GCSE_Lin_Geog_B_Issue_5.pdf

OCR A Unit A731: Contemporary Themes in Geography, Similarities and Differences in Settlements and Population, page 20

http://www.ocr.org.uk/Images/82576-specifi cation.pdf

OCR B Unit B563: Key Geographical Themes, Theme 2, Population and Settlement, page 19

http://www.ocr.org.uk/Images/82581-specifi cation.pdf

WJEC A Unit 1: A Global World, Theme 4, Changing Populations, page 16

http://www.wjec.co.uk/uploads/publications/16128.pdf

WJEC B Unit 1: Challenges and Interactions in Geography, Theme 1, Challenges of Living in a Built Environment, Urbanisation, page 15

http://www.wjec.co.uk/uploads/publications/17213.pdf

CCEA Unit 2: Living in our World, Theme A, People and Where They Live, pages 16–17; a copy of the specifi cation can be downloaded from:

http://www.rewardinglearning.org.uk/microsites/geography/gcse/index.asp

Cambridge

IGCSE

Theme 1, Population and Settlement, ‘Population Dynamics’, page 13

http://www.cie.org.uk/images/128378-2015-syllabus.pdf

Edexcel

Interna-

tional

GCSE

Section D, Global issues, Topic 9, Development and human welfare, page 18

http://www.edexcel.com/migrationdocuments/International%20GCSE%20from%202011/UG030050-International-GCSE-in-Geography-master-booklet-spec-SAMs-for-web-220212.pdf

© Oxford University Press 2015 Series 26, Issue 2, January 2015 2

GEOACTIVE ● 533

China: Coping with an ageing population

IntroductionAccording to the United Nations, a

country’s population is said to be

‘ageing’ when more than 10% of its

people is over the age of 60. Many

more developed countries have a

much higher percentage. Ageing

tends to be a stage in the

development of these countries.

After a country has gone through

industrialisation and urbanisation

followed by increases in living

standards and average income,

ageing often starts to be a concern.

Ageing means that there are more

dependent people in a country

(aged under 16 and over 60) and

fewer workers (16 to 60) to support

them. These elderly people also

need increased fi nance for health,

medical and social care. They are

contributing very little to the

economy but are very costly to

their government.

China has the largest population in

the world – over 1.35 billion. China

is a country of great contrasts –

rich, industrialised, westernised

cities and very poor rural

communities where many people

live on the poverty line. It also has

an ageing population – about 128

million or one in every ten people

are aged 60 or over, the largest

number in the world. It is estimated

that China could have some 400

million people over 60 years of age

by 2050, or one in three people in

the total population (Figure 1).

Unfortunately China has reached

this ageing stage while it still has a

very low average income. About

50% of its workers are poor farmers

and only 11% are in better-paid

tertiary jobs. A large number of

people in China have moved into

the ‘dependent’ category of the

population before the country has

become wealthy enough to support

them all. Most of the world’s

countries reached the 10% threshold

when their GDP per capita was over

$5000 but China reached that point

when the threshold was jut $1000.

The rate of ageing has also been

much faster in China and so it has

been diffi cult for the government to

cope with the increased costs over a

shorter period of time.

Elderly people all over the world

face many problems but a recent

survey in China showed that nearly

one in four people are now living

below the poverty line, more than

one in three struggle with daily

activities, and 40% show signifi cant

symptoms of depression.

Causes of ageing in China1 Increased life expectancy

China’s life expectancy (LE) has

increased rapidly over the past

50 years – more than in many

other countries (Figure 2). This is

largely due to improved medical

and social care services, which

were part of government policies

from the early 1960s. People are

living longer so there is a much

higher percentage of the elderly

in the population.

2 Post-war baby boom In1949

Mao Tse Tung became the new

Chinese leader. He encouraged

people to have large families to

provide workers to develop the

industries and encourage

economic growth. These children

are now reaching old age and are

adding to the numbers of elderly

people.

3 ‘One child is good’ policy In

1979, government policies

changed when the now famous

‘one child is good’ policy was

introduced. This ‘later, longer,

China’s rapid ageing bringsproblems for the government

China faces a ‘time-bomb’ ofageing population

Latest figures – 123 million people

are over 65 in China – 9% of itstotal population

China’s ageing families under pressure

Ageing China – challenges andchanges lie ahead

Figure 1 Newspaper headlines about ageing in China

© Oxford University Press 2015 Series 26, Issue 2, January 2015 3

China: Coping with an ageing population ● 533GEOACTIVE

fewer’ policy demanded that

couples should marry later and

have only one child in the

family.

There were a few exceptions to this

rule:

● Two ‘only’ children in urban

areas were allowed to have two

children, but they must be born

four years apart.

● If a couple had a handicapped

child they could try for another

baby.

● If a couple had a girl in a rural

area they were allowed a second

child.

However, two-thirds of the

population were limited to one-

child families.

This new scheme slowed down the

population growth dramatically

compared with that in other

countries, e.g. India (Figure 3).

However, it has also created

problems, as the reduced number of

births since 1979 has reduced the

numbers of people in the working

age groups.

Coping with ageing in ChinaPaying the bills

Most westernised countries, e.g. the

UK, have had a well-organised

state-run pension scheme for many

years. Once people reach a certain

age they automatically receive a

state pension each week to support

their very basic needs. This money

comes from taxes and other

contributions made during a

worker’s lifetime. Many workers

also pay an amount from their

income on a weekly or monthly

basis into a private pension scheme,

to ‘top-up’ this state pension when

they retire.

The pension schemes in China until

recently were not as organised or as

centralised. There were vast

differences between the rural and

urban areas. Cities tended to run

their own schemes but if you

moved to another region you could

lose your pension rights. If you

were a civil servant (government

worker) you automatically received

a pension payment on retirement,

but many people in China were not

entitled to any fi nancial support on

retirement, e.g. poor farm workers.

Over the last ten years much work

has been done by the government

to sort out the pension situation.

The number of people in a pension

scheme almost doubled between

2009 and 2012. So, in the future, as

workers reach retirement age they

will be eligible to a pension

payment. Currently about 60% of

the elderly receive a regular

monthly pension – but that means

4 out of 10 do not! Also, the

average amount they get is less

than £10 per month – the

government simply does not have

enough money to pay any more.

The 4–2–1 situation

The ‘one child is good’ policy has

left China with a generation of

‘only’ (single) children who often

have to support their parents as

well as two sets of elderly

grandparents. This can be a huge

fi nancial and emotional burden on

just one person (Figure 4).

Family issues

One of the main reasons for the

poor pension provision was that a

part of Chinese culture includes

what is known as ‘fi lial piety’. This

means that children are expected to

provide and care for their elderly

parents, so paying into a pension

scheme was not important and

many poor farmworkers could not

afford it anyway. However, as

Figure 4 The 4–2–1 situation

Figure 2 Changing life expectancy since 1960Source: www.worldlifeexpectancy.com

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

China 990 1160 1270 1360 1400 1400 1370 1310

India 700 830 1020 1210 1400 1500 1620 1670

Figure 3 Growth rates of China and India (population in millions)Source: http://letstalkbooksandpolitics.blogspot.co.uk/

© Oxford University Press 2015 Series 26, Issue 2, January 2015 4

China: Coping with an ageing population ● 533GEOACTIVE

young people are moving from

their birthplace to work in the

factories and big cities, this has

become diffi cult to put into

practice, and aged rural parents

have been left behind in poverty. In

1990, 70% of elderly people lived

with their children but by 2006

only 40% did – a very big drop in

numbers and a huge extra

burden on the government to have

to pay for their upkeep. It was

very diffi cult to cope with this

change so quickly.

In 2013 the government passed a

law called the ‘Protection of the

Rights and Interests of Elderly

People’, which has made it possible

for parents to sue their children for

‘neglect’ if they want to do so.

Raising the retirement age

As life expectancy increases, people

spend more years in retirement, so

they need fi nancial support for

longer. Retirement at 65 when the

LE is 70 means there are 5 years of

pension payouts. When the LE

increases to 80, a person needs

15 years of pension payments –

three times as much money! Asking

people to have a longer working life

is necessary but is not popular.

In China, for many years the

retirement age for men was 60 and

50 for women. When LE was low

these ages were acceptable but as

LE increases these ages will have to

be raised in the future.

Changes in the workforce: lower numbers China’s rapid and successful

economic growth over the past

20 years or so has been closely

linked to the fact that it had a large

available supply of workers who

were mainly low-paid. Farm-

workers moving to the big cities

were keen to take jobs at quite low

rates of pay. Now the number of

people in this working age group is

falling, which means:

● industries may need to pay

higher wages if labour is more

scarce

● automation may need to be

increased

● elderly or part-time workers will

become more important in the

workforce

● workers will need higher wages

if they are expected to pay into

pension schemes.

Providing healthcare, social care and housingElderly people generally have more

physical and health problems than

other people, need more day-to-day

care and require special residential

accommodation. All of these are

expensive. China has traditionally

developed using government

funding based on its communist

principles rather than using private

capital. In order to meet the

demands for these extra services it

is now looking towards using

funding and investment from

abroad as well.

Companies willing to take over care

service provision or to provide

elderly accommodation facilities are

offered incentives such as tax

rebates, cheaper land, and fast-track

planning decisions. China needs to

expand its own involvement in

catering for its ageing population,

by providing medicines and aids for

the elderly. Care-workers and

accommodation could be a large

source of jobs in the country in

future.

Recent developmentsRecent ventures aimed at dealing

with the problem include:

● providing 3 million beds under

China’s 11th Five Year Plan – there

will then be 30 beds for every

1000 elderly people, which should

be enough to meet demand

● trying to ensure basic healthcare

and social care provision for the

elderly in all urban areas and

half the rural areas by the end of

2015

● building private developments

– retirement villages and care

homes – so far these have tended

to be for the richer urban

dwellers who can afford them.

ConclusionNo country has aged as quickly as

China is ageing now. It is very hard

to predict what the consequences of

China’s ageing will be for China

and the world. This massive

potential increase in the number of

elderly Chinese has to be carefully

monitored and catered for to avoid

a serious problem for China in the

future.

© Oxford University Press 2015 Series 26, Issue 2, January 2015 5

China: Coping with an ageing population ● 533GEOACTIVE

Activities

1 Copy and complete the following paragraph using the words provided in the box below. Use information from the article to help you.

Two main factors leading to ageing in China are the ______ in life expectancy and the ______ birth rate linked with the ‘one child is good’ policy. This has left many ______ children with the responsibility of looking after parents and ______ , which is known as the 4–2–1 situation. Also, babies born under the rule of ______ are now reaching old age. China is fi nding it diffi cult to cope with ______ as its ______ system is not very good. For many years children looked after their parents under the system known as ______ . China is using ______ capital to help with the increased demand for care of the ______ .

foreign Mao Tse Tung increase

ageing grandparents pension

fi lial piety fi nance only

lower elderly

2 Do you think it is a good idea to pass a law to make people look after their elderly parents? Explain your answer.

3 Imagine you were a government offi cial going into a rural Chinese community to organise improved elderly care.

a What kinds of problem would you expect there to be?

b What kind of services would you need to set up?

4 a Describe the main differences in the shape of the two pyramids in Figure 5.

b How many males (left-hand side of pyramid) are aged 60 and over in (i) 2010 and (ii) 2050?

c How many females are aged under 15 in each year?

5 Referring to Figure 3, compare the difference in population growth in China and India since 1980.

6 Draw two line graphs on the same page to show the data in Figure 6.

Figure 5 Population pyramids for China, 2010 and 2050

Figure 6 Urban and rural elderly in China: 1982, 2000 and 2010 (percentage fi gures)

1982 2000 2010

Urban elderly 4.5 6.4 7.7

Rural elderly 5.0 7.5 10.1

© Oxford University Press 2015 Series 26, Issue 2, January 2015 6

China: Coping with an ageing population ● 533GEOACTIVE

Learning checkpoint

• China has an ageing population. The small workforce has to support this larger dependent population.

• More pension plans, and higher retirement age, will have to be put in place.

• The government must provide more resources for the elderly, including special facilities – retirement villages and care homes.

Glossary task

Write glossary defi nitions for these terms:

dependent people ‘one child is good’ policy

fi lial piety pensions

life expectancy retirement age

Remember this case study

To help you remember this case study, make notes under the following headings:

Causes of an ageing population

Coping with ageing: pensions, retirement age, family

Changes in the workforce

Special provision for the elderly

Try to make your notes fi t a single sheet of A4.