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Transcript of Geo-Science and Engineering Needs in the Energy Sector Beirut... · Geo-Science and Engineering...
4/10/2017
1
Geo-Science and Engineering
Needs in the Energy Sector
J. Carlos SantamarinaKAUST
Munib and Angela Masri Institute of Energy and Natural ResourcesAmerican University of Beirut – April 2017
Social Media (2017)BP - Biofuels
American Petroleum Institute – Super Bowl
Exxonmobil – Biofuels
Committed to better energy
Shell – ECO-marathon
4/10/2017
2
Explosion: 4/20/10 (@10 pm)Deepwater Horizon
Sinks: 4/22/10 (~10 am) Oil slick: 5/6/10
News
Energy = Tera-Problem
Energy Geo-Science & Engineering
Contents
4/10/2017
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Usage TOTAL: 97.5 QuadsRead numbers as ~ %LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov2015
Usage
86% Fossil fuels
TOTAL: 97.5 QuadsRead numbers as ~ %LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov2015
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Usage TOTAL: 97.5 QuadsRead numbers as ~ %LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov2015
Transition from C-economy to renewables: will be C-fueled !
Usage TOTAL: 97.5 QuadsRead numbers as ~ %LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov2015
Phase-out nuclear? Not yet… But: Waste? Onshore reserves? Risks?
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Usage TOTAL: 97.5 QuadsRead numbers as ~ %LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov2015
Transportation: Oil-based, and most inefficient!
Usage TOTAL: 97.5 QuadsRead numbers as ~ %LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov2015
Efficiency AND conservation
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Sources: TrendsEIA 2015 Note: ~ BP ~ MIT ~ OPECRenewables: biomass, hydro, solar, wind
Fossil fuels - Projection: decreased % of total … but, increased consumption
Consumption - Worldwide
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Cu
m.
Po
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mp
tio
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Power consumption [kW/pers]
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Consumption - Worldwide
Pronounced differences worldwide
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100%
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
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Power consumption [kW/pers]
2000 cal
1000 times
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Power consumption [kW/pers]
India
China
GermanyJapan
Rusia
USA
Canada
Consumption - Worldwide
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0%
20%
40%
60%
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100%
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Cu
m.
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Power consumption [kW/pers]
KSA
KuwaitUAE
BahrainQatar
Oman
Consumption - Worldwide
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20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Cu
m.
Po
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Power consumption [kW/pers]
16% Population56% Energy
Consumption - Worldwide
5
84% Population44% Energy
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“>5 spenders”: Efficiency + Conservation … But will we do with savings ?!
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100%
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Power consumption [kW/pers]
5
Savings=
1.8 T$ (2016)
2.5 T$ (2040)
Consumption - Worldwide
Consumption - Worldwide
Sustainable energy system
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Cu
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Power consumption [kW/pers]
2000 cal
sustainable energy system
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Population Growth: 20,000,000 per year
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Power [W / Person]
Po
pu
lati
on
Gro
wth
[%
/yr]
countries > 4,000,000
Data: CIA, UN
Reproductive choices future energy demands & individual’s C-footprint
Population Growth
320 W/m2
280 W/m2
200 W/m2
<120 W/m2
<1%
1.0-1.5%
1.5-2.1%
2.1-3.0%
>3%
No info
Match: Solar! Distributed – Correlated with growing needs – Grid-independent ±
Human Development Index
Migration
Insolation
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Oil Reserves
Big consumers … low producers
Mismatch: Conflicts and migration – 14 M refugees – 1.8 T$/yr military expenditure
Strategies: 2040 Horizon
Conservation = reduce overspending Leapfrog-Tech Good governance
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12M people12,000 km2
1000 p/km2
6M people22,000 km2
250 p/km2
Modern Cities & Infrastructure = Cheap Fossil Fuels
ParisAtlanta
Revolution in transportation … the technology is available
2013 Volkswagen 100 km/l
2017 Chevrolet Bolt 50 km/l
2016Chevrolet Volt
(2nd generation)45 km/l
2015 BMW i3 51 km/l
Transportation Revolution
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Hydroelectric H=100m 0.001
Coal 23
Oil ~ gasoline 45
Hydrogen 140
Uranium (effective) 900,000
Energy Density
[MJ/kg]
Fossil fuels: very compact engineering
NOTE: 1.0 lt of gasoline = 10 m2 of solar panels for 1 day
Energy Plant TypeLifetime Cost
¢ / kWh
Offshore Wind 20.0
Coal & CCS 14.4
PV Solar 12.5
Gas & CCS 10.0
Nuclear 9.5
Coal 9.5
Hydro-electric 8.4
Gas 7.5
Land Based Wind 7.4
Real-cost Pricing
http://solarcellcentral.com
Real-cost pricing proper techno-economical optimization
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Summary: TERA-problem
Tera-dollars 100’s T$ infrastructure (optimized for cheap oil)
77 T$ global GDP 2014
>1 T$ for CCS
2.5 T$ savings “>5 spenders”
1.8 T$ military expenditure
6.6 T$ cost to Miami due to climate change
Tera-watt 17 TW power consumption
8 TW increased demand 2040
Tera-kg 20 Tkg CO2 emitted
1012
Global: Reduce differences in Pcons & QL
Governments QL and Pcons Real-cost pricing techno-$ optimization
Developed Efficiency + Conservation (start with transport)
Nations: Save > 1.8 T$/year with today’s technology
How would affluent societies use savings?
Developing Increase quality of life
Nations: Leapfrog technology
Most benefit from solar
Energy Complex … Difficult choices … Urgency
transition: Fueled by fossil fuels !
Summary: Sustainable Energy System
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Energy = Tera-Problem
Energy Geo-Science & Engineering
Contents
1 By
4.5 B
2 By3 By4 By 0
0 2000 yr-2000 yr-4000 yr-6000 yr
Time Scales
Fossil Fuels = >400My solar energy … consumed in <400yr
magnification: 2x106
3.5
BY
A:
bac
teri
a
2.5
BY
A:
O2
atm
osp
h
1.5
BY
A:
pla
nts
230-65 MYA: dinosaurs
coal & petrol
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earth radius: 6371 kmatmosphere: 80% within 10 km
Length Scales
google_earth
FOSSIL FUELS (C-based) RENEWABLE
Oil Gas Coal GeoT Hydro Wind Solar BioF Nuclear
Site Characterization
Properties of Geomaterials
Reservoir Monitoring & Management
Infrastructure Design Build, Retrofit, Decommission
Geo-Storage Energy & Waste
Geo-Environmental Remediation
Efficiency and Conservation
Energy Geo-Science and Engineering
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COAL 26% energy worldwide
OrigenSedimentary rock made of carbon ‐ Forms seams or beds
Recovery: shaft & underground mines or open pit
ReservesWorld: 1012 ton
(China, USA, Pakistan, Russia, India, Australia)
ConsumptionElectric power generation
World: 8x109 ton/yr (China, USA, India)
EnergeticsEnergy density: 24 MJ/kg (Most efficient plant: 49%)
Emitted CO2= 0.96 kg/kW.h
Geo‐Science
&
Engineering
Characterization: Stratigraphy. Faulting. Properties. Gas
Mine design and operation: roof stability
Optimal extraction strategies & material handling
Coal combustion products: Fly ash (USA: 130106 tons/year)Abandonment: Re‐use. Reclamation. Backfill
Environmental impact: acid mine drainage, methane release
Monitoring active and abandoned mines
Coal Ash Contamination
Contaminated SiteSpillContaminated & Spill
http://earthjustice.org
>130106 ton/yr>1,000 operating ash landfills100s "retired" disposal sites
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TVA Kingston Plant (22 December 2008)
34 ha, up to 22 m high ash disposal cell ~2.106 m3 released
OIL 34% energy worldwide
Origin
Accumulation of organic matter in sedimentary basins
Maturation (P&T in “oil window”)
Migration: source to reservoir (geoplumbing and traps)
ReservesWorld: 1.5x1012 barrels
Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait
ConsumptionWorld: 3.2x1010 barrels/yr Primarely: transportation
USA, EU, China, Japan, India
EnergeticsEnergy density: 46 MJ/kg (effective: ~15 MJ/kg)
Emitted CO2 at power plants: 0.88 kg/kW.h
New reservoirs
&
challenges
Locations: Deep (HT&HP). Arctic regions
Formations: weak, fractured, compressible, beneath salt
Very viscous or immobile oils (oil sands and oil shales)
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OIL 34% energy worldwide
Geo‐Science
&
Engineering
Characterization: Geo‐pluming, subsalt, u, ’, TPhysical properties: permeability … and all others
Drilling, completion, leaks, zonal isolation
Production: inherently mixed fluid flow (water, oil, gas)
Fines migration and clogging … asphaltenes
Reservoir stimulation: HF, acid, steam, “smart water”
Subsidence, fault reactivation, casing buckling/shear
Monitoring: deformations, microseismicity, fluid pressure.
Infrastructure (onshore and offshore)
Waste reinjection (fluids and grains)
Foraminifera – Globigerinoides (Globigerinina)
www.slb.com
Carbonates: 60% of Worldwide Reserves
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GAS 21% energy worldwide
Location
In traps, shale gas, coal beds, gas hydrate
Thermogenic: P&T above the “oil window”
Biogenic: methanogens (high purity CH4 in hydrate)
ReservesWorld recoverable: >2001012 m3 + Gas hydrates …?
Russia, Iran, Qatar, Turkmenistan, USA
ConsumptionWorld: 3.31012 m3/yr
USA, Russia, EU
Energetics
Energy density: 45 MJ/kg of gas
Hydrates: 5.9 MJ/kg of hydrate
Emitted CO2: 0.5 kg/kW.h
GAS 21% energy worldwide
Geo‐Science
&
Engineering
Common
Characterization: stratigraphy, geo‐plumbing, properties
Well drilling (horizontal) and completion
Monitoring: Deformations, microseismicity, u, T
Integration of monitoring data into reservoir management
Infrastructure
Waste management (HF fluids, cuttings, produced fines)
Shale gas Fracking: water demand (>107 liters of water per well)
Evolution of fractures in pre‐structured shales
Early drop in production
CH4 leakage (may reach 8% of the produced gas)
Hydrates Hydrate nucleation and growth in sediments
Production: P T CO2CH4 surface mining
Subsidence, casing‐sediment interaction
Environmental hazard: seafloor stability and gas release
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Shales – Hydraulic Fracture
Don Duggan-Haas
Marcellus shale outcrop
Robert M. Reed (Bureau of Economic Geology)
Stimulation: HF Pre-structured Media
Roshankhah 2015
0.7
-0.7
p/
zo
CL
4/10/2017
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uni-mki.gwdg.de
Gas in Hydrates
Nankai Trough - March 2013
http://www.nytimes.com
DoE
CO2 GEOSTORAGE
Situation
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions: 33 1012 t/yr
Current CO2 atmosphere ~400 ppm. Increase: 2ppm/yr
Severe consequences 550 ppm (IPCC, 2000)
No low cost & scalable technology to capture CO2
More than 50 CO2 geostorage pilot projects worldwide
CO2 injection: common practice in petroleum production
Geostorage
Supercritical: saline aquifers, oil & gas reservoirs, coal seams
Liquid CO2: pools in deep ocean (> 3000 m)
CO2 Hydrate: deep ocean, CO2CH4
Chemically: carbonation, natural (trees, algae), coal/ shale
Geo‐Science
&
Engineering
Identification and characterization: formations & seal
Porosity & dpore (injectability‐trapping tradeoff)
Long‐term response ~10,000 yr (formation, grouts, plugs)
Engineered injection: fingering, storativity, leakage
Coupled HCM: mixed fluids, acidification, dissolution
Monitoring: plume tracking, leak detection, deformation, P&T
Sealing strategies
4/10/2017
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C Geo-storage: HQM Coupling
diffusion
Q
capillarity
pH dissolutioncontractionko shearCO2 Brine
buoyancy
advectionconvection
capillarity
HR
tensile fracture
‐fingering
HCO2
Caprock
Costly CO2 capture … uncertain long-term geo-storage
200ms
2.5km
Geo-Plumbing: Leak
Norway (Lawrence, 2010)
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NUCLEAR 6% energy worldwide
UraniumIn minerals (mined when >1000 ppm. In seawater (3 ppb)235U half‐life: 7 108 years
Energetics Energy density: 83 106 MJ/kg (effective: 0.9 105 MJ /kg)
Reserves
In minerals: 5 106 tons. In seawater: 4 109 tons
Annual production: 5.5 104 tons
Kazakhstan, Canada, Australia, Namibia, Niger, Russia
Context
Nuclear power plants in operation: 437
No nuclear waste repository in operation
Critical time for waste fuel storage: ~100 years
Design horizon: 10,000 yr to 1,000,000 yr
Commercial
accidents
Three Mile Island 1979, Chernobyl 1986, Fukushima 2011.
Minor: more common (e.g., leaks from spent fuel pools)
NUCLEAR 6% energy worldwide
Geo‐Science
&
Engineering
Common Characterization, baseline conditions, properties
Monitoring: Thermal field, leaks, long‐term monitoring
Monitoring integration into optimization/reliability strategy
Mining
Excavation
Handling of tailings
Infrastructure
Static, seismic, natural hazards
Heat absorption/release (new generation reactors)
Design for life‐cycle and for decommissioning
Flooding protection and mitigation
Regional and local subsidence
Remediation
Waste storage
Salt, hard rock, or clay
Self‐healing, HTCBM constraints, stability, retention
HTCBM: understanding, properties, and modeling
Design for retrievability
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GEOTHERMAL 0.2‐to‐0.3% of all energy consumed
Types
Shallow (<0.1 km): subsurface thermal capacitance
Hydrothermal (inter depth): Volcanic / tectonic regions
Deep geothermal (~3‐5 km, 150C<T< 350C): steam
Resource
98% of the earth: T> 1000CAverage heat flux: ~0.08W/m2
Potential: 4 TW of electricity 4 TW for heating
Installed: 12 GW of electricity 30 GW for heating
Geo‐Science
&
Engineering
ShallowGSH
P Characterization: T, kT, c, groundwater
Coupled HTCM processes (e.g., repetitive TM ratcheting)
Engineering: backfill for heat storage and exchange
Optimal operation
Deep ‐EG
S
Characterization: fractures & geoplumbing
Rock properties @ HT (400C) & HP (100 MPa)
Drilling, casing stability
Reservoir engineering: HF, spacing
Coupled HTCM processes – Dissolution/precipitation
Monitoring & management
BIO FUELS 9.8% energy worldwide; >90% of heat from renewables
Sources
Combustible renewables: sugar beet, corn, wood, biogen gas
Collateral: land & water use, effect on food supply
Waste is not necessarily carbon neutral
Energetics
Various bio‐mass sources
Municipal solid waste eV 155 MJ/kg
Paper, cardboard
Plastic eV= 3010 MJ/kg
Geo‐Science
&
Engineering
Landfills:
Spatial & time‐varying physical properties
Liners (clays, geotextiles). Coupled THCBM processes.
Volume change during decomposition, subsidence
Monitoring: deformations, P&T, gas, leachate
Agriculture:
Unsaturated, coupled THCBM processes
Root‐soil interaction
Erosion control. Desertification.
Geomechanical tool optimization, tire‐soil interaction
Monitoring (local, remote)
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HYDROELECTRIC 2.2% energy (14% of global electricity)
Resources
Dams (current and planned): all producible capacity
Installed: 400 GW (China, Canada, Brazil, USA)
Hydroelectric power plants: some exceed 10 GW
Geo‐Science
&
Engineering
Dams
Site: fractures, relic channels, abutment stability
Classical: piping, dispersion, toe instability, filters, frozen ground,
overtopping, differential settlement, uplift, seepage, intelligent
compaction, dissolution, dynamic response
Reservoir sedimentation and capacity loss
Maintenance & retrofit: sedimentation, erosion, leaks
Tidal
Site: stratigraphy, erodability and mass transport
Underwater turbines, floating and fixed systems:
Anchoring in soft marine clays
High drag, cavitation, scour
Repetitive dynamic loads
Both Monitoring: deformations, fluid pressure, leaks
Integration of monitoring into resource management
WIND <1% % energy worldwide (~2.5% of electricity)
ProductionWind turbines: < 150m diameter, < 8MW
Wind farms: some exceed 1GW
Extractable Worldwide: > total energy consumption (~17 TW)
In placeWorldwide: installed 450 GW (produced 50 GW)
USA: installed 66 GW (produced 13 GW)
EnergeticsWind power P Area A
Air mass density Wind speed v
Geo‐Science
&
Engineering
Onshore and offshore foundations (design, installation)
Characterization, material properties
Response to repetitive loads (ratcheting, terminal densities)
Constitutive models
Numerical simulators
Monitoring short and long term performance
Energy storage
3
2
1vAP
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SOLAR <1% % energy worldwide *
Solar powerInsolation: 150‐to‐300 W/m2 (primarily between the tropics)
Total earth insolation: 6500 total energy consumption
Harnessing
Heating
Bio‐photosynthesis
Photovoltaics (power stations can exceed 200 MW) Concentrated
solar power plants (10 MW units)
Geo‐Science
&
Engineering
Solar panels (1‐to‐3m above ground)
Loads: low ‐ consider uplift
Key: low cost & high installation rate (fin or helical piles)
Concentrated solar power (Towers large moments)
Geo‐storage
Hybrid solar‐thermal (HTM coupling)
Sub‐surface & solar ponds (pools of saltwater)
ENERGY STORAGE
Need
Satisfy peaks
Optimize plant/system operation
Accommodate intermittent renewable sources
Methods
(scales)
National/commercial: chemical (caverns, aquifers, reservoirs)
Urban: pumped hydro, CAES, molten salt
Residential: distributed thermal energy storage
Volume
Given: energy density eV [J/m3]
stored energy E [J] or
delivered power P [W] and duration t [s]
Chemical
Hydrogen (at 20 MPa)
Methane (at 20 MPa)
Gasoline
H2:
CH4:
gasoline:
eV= 1,600 MJ/m3
eV= 7,600 MJ/m3
eV=40,000 MJ/m3
Pumped HydroFluid unit weight γ [kN/m3]
at elevation ΔH [m]
water @ΔH=100m
eV = 1 MJ/m3
Compressed AirCycle’s min&max press.
Pmin and Pmax [kPa].
Pmin=4 MPa & Pmax=7 MPa
eV = 4 MJ/m3
VV e
tP
e
EV
HeV
min
maxmaxV P
PlnPe
4/10/2017
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ENERGY STORAGE
Thermal
Sensible heat:
density ρ [kg/m3]
heat cap. Cp [kJ/(kg.°C)]
water ΔT=10°C
eV = 42 MJ/m3
Latent heat: L [kJ/kg]
mass density ρ [kg/m3]
icewater
eV = 305 MJ/m3
Geo‐Science
&
Engineering
Characterization: Stratigraphy, geo‐pluming
Material response to PT‐RH‐’ cyclesProofing existent volumes for storage
Design for coupled HTCM processes.
Monitoring ‐ Integration into reservoir management
Leak monitoring and repair
TCe pV
LeV
CONSERVATION AND EFFICIENCY
General
Conservation: developed nations with overconsumption
Efficiency complements conservation
Embodied energy parallels embodied CO2
Portland cement embodied CO2 in infrastructure
High inefficiency: Crushing (2‐to‐5%)
Biomimetics
Biological processes: optimal development
Soils excavation: machine >> hand >> ants
Roots: self‐adaptive, self‐sensing, self‐healing
Geo‐Science
&
Engineering
Efficient use of natural resources (e.g., aggregates)
Reduced volume extraction
Avoid materials with high embodied energy (concrete & steel)
Energy efficiency construction practices
Energy return on investment EROI (considers all invested energy)
Waste recycling/reutilization: engineering waste reuse for long‐
term performance
Observational approach: monitoring as an integral component of
energy efficient design and construction practice
4/10/2017
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Efficiency
Nature: adaptation towards energy optimization
Efficiency: Rock Crushing
Grain-grain interaction
Elasto-thermal within particles
Ein
13 %
1 %
2 %
37%
47 %
Embodied Energy
4/10/2017
30
Geotech: Back to Basics…
geolabs.co.uk
Fluid-Mineral: HTCMFlow-controlling fractionLoad-carrying fraction
Sand [%]
0
60
100
100
0
40
0 100
20
30
10
50
50
90
80
70
60
40
30
20
10
70
80
90
908070605040302010
Sand [%]
0
60
100
100
0
40
0 100
20
30
10
50
50
90
80
70
60
40
30
20
10
70
80
90
908070605040302010
1
2
34
5
7
8
9
6
10
11 12
2
13
F
GF SF
GSF
G SGS
(F)
(G) (S)
b
oo e
e
k
k
'c
'c
HLH
'eeee
u ’ e k
0
100
200
300
Eff
ecti
ve s
tres
s [k
Pa]
N=104
Repetitive THCM loadsPhysics-inspired models
1. Energy = Tera-Problem
Difficult decisions
Urgency
2. Energy Geo-Science and Engineering
Central role
Back to basics: Physics-inspired
Closing
4/10/2017
31
Thank you
Current & past team members
Special thanks:
Rached Rached
Dr. Nesreene GhaddarMunib and Angela MasriInstitute of Energy and Natural Resources
References
Terzaghi Lecture: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQGdw_-mOyc
Papers: https://egel.kaust.edu.sa/Pages/Publications.aspx
World situation: https://egel.kaust.edu.sa/Documents/Papers/Pasten_2012a.pdf
https://egel.kaust.edu.sa/Documents/Papers/Santamarina_2006www.pdf