OCT 2014

Aliasghar Abbasi

Forecasting Methods

Genius ForecastingIntuition and Vision

Mohsen Bahrami

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I. History of the Method

II. What are Genius Forecasting, Intuition and Vision

III. How to do it How to find those of insightHow to stimulate your own insight

IV. Strengths and Weaknesses of the Method

Table of Contents

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Leaders today and throughout history relied on advice from wise ones with great insight.

Probably the most famous lineage of genius forecasters was the Greek Oracle tradition in Delphi.

Imagination is more important than knowledge.-Albert Einstein

History Genius Forecasting

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Genius forecasting, intuition and visioning are all connected with somehow foreseeing and visualizing futures.

These methods recognize the importance of imagination.

History Genius Forecasting

Imagination is more important than knowledge.-Albert Einstein

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Genius forecasting is an unspecified set of processes used by geniuses to arrive at statements about the future.

Imagination is more important than knowledge.-Albert Einstein

What is Genius Forecasting?

Section 2Genius Forecasting

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The terms intuition or gut feeling are used when it would be far too complex to explain how one came to some insight about future possibilities.

Imagination is more important than knowledge.-Albert Einstein

What is Intuition?

Section 2Intuition

Intuition may be the only useful source of information to forecast behavior of a chaotic system.

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A vision is a statement of the preferred future that an organization or community wants to create.

Imagination is more important than knowledge.-Albert Einstein

What is Vision?

Section 2Vision

Visions of the future are the stimulus to change the present.

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If you believe that those of great vision are born, not made by an education or the mastery of mental techniques, then the question of how to do genius forecasting becomes: how can you find such people and their vision?

How to do it

Section 3How to find those of insight

Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.-Albert Einstein

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Prediction Markets.

How to do it

Section 3How to find those of insight

Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.-Albert Einstein

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Search literature and Internet.

How to do it

Section 3How to find those of insight

Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.-Albert Einstein

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Referrals from wise ones.

How to do it

Section 3How to find those of insight

Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.-Albert Einstein

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Recommendations from institutions, organizations, and directories.

How to do it

Section 3How to find those of insight

Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.-Albert Einstein

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Observations at conferences and other gatherings of creative people.

How to do it

Section 3How to find those of insight

Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.-Albert Einstein

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Hold contests for genius forecasting and vision.

How to do it

Section 3How to find those of insight

Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.-Albert Einstein

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Follow current events.

How to do it

Section 3How to find those of insight

Genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration.-Thomas A. Edison

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Access public Delphis through newspapers, radio, and/or television.

How to do it

Section 3How to find those of insight

Genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration.-Thomas A. Edison

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If you believe subjective forecasting can be learned, then the question of how to do it becomes: what are the methods identified in the literature and used by futurists.

How to do it

Section 3How to stimulate your own insight

Genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration.-Thomas A. Edison

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Reading diverse material.

How to do it

Section 3How to stimulate your own insight

Genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration.-Thomas A. Edison

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Guessing.

How to do it

Section 3How to stimulate your own insight

Genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration.-Thomas A. Edison

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Opposite Acting and Thinking.

How to do it

Section 3How to stimulate your own insight

We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.-Albert Einstein

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Simulation and Games.

How to do it

Section 3How to stimulate your own insight

We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.-Albert Einstein

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Meditation.

How to do it

Section 3How to stimulate your own insight

We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.-Albert Einstein

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Perceptual exercises, dreams and thought experiments.

How to do it

Section 3How to stimulate your own insight

We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.-Albert Einstein

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Extra dimensionality.

How to do it

Section 3How to stimulate your own insight

We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.-Albert Einstein

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Internships.

How to do it

Section 3How to stimulate your own insight

We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.-Albert Einstein

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It cuts time and costs.

Strengths and Weakness of the Method

Section 4STRENGHTS

We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.-Albert Einstein

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How do you find a reliable genius?

Strengths and Weaknesses of the Method

Section 4WEAKNESSES

How can you know a genius forecast is good or not?

We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.-Albert Einstein

THE END