SCIENTIFIC GENERATIVE

MODELS: PHYSICAL AND

MENTAL

KIRTLAND HOBLER MD, MS, FACS

2017 0 LLI CLASS ONB. MANDELBROT’S

FRACTAL GROWTH MODELSPHYSICAL (KH)

AND ECONOMIC (DAN NAGEL)

2019 as a student in Dan’s Nagel’s new 0 LLI economics

class, Dan asked me,“KIRT, TELL US ABOUT

MODELS.”

RETIRED 2002 GEN. SURGEONU. ROCHESTER: MODEL- SHOCK . PIGS

UNC CHAPEL HILL: MODEL-ATYP. APPENDICITIS

ELECTRICAL ENERGYAND

OLLI LIFETIME LEARNING

HOW DOES IT HAPPEN?

OLLI MODERATOR 2004LOUSY GOLFER

5 TAKEAWAYS AND 1 TASK ABOUT SCIENTIFIC MODELS:

WHAT ARE THEY AND WHAT DO THEY DO?

2.

5.

TASK; NAME 3 OF YOUR FAVORITES MODELS

4.

1. MODELS REPRESENT WAYS OF THINKING.

3.

NICOLA TESLA 1885 INVENTED THE PHYSICAL 3-PHASE

GENERATOR OF ELECTROMAGNETIC WORK,

AND

KARL FRISTON IN 2014 DESCRIBED THE MENTAL

NEUROSCIENTIFIC WORK OF BELIEF.

WE WILL SHOW SOME HISTORICAL DETAILS OF EACH, BUT FOCUS ON THE

WHOLISTIC MEANING OF THESE MODERN MODELS OF UNDERSTANDING.

ENERGY GENERATORS: PHYSICAL AND MENTAL2 GENERATIVE MODELS(THE CAPACITY TO DO WORK)

(GENERATES DATA, OUTPUTS EXPLAINATIONS OR PREDICTIONS)

(POTENTIAL/POSITIONAL ENERGY: e.g.,CROWD ELECTRONS IN A BATTERY) /or KINETIC/MOTION ENERGY: e.g.,CAUSE ROTATION OF A MOTOR)

(BIOLOGIC: CORRECT MISTAKES AND LEARN)

MODERN MODELS

KIRTLAND HOBLER

WHAT IS A GOOD SCIENTIFIC MODEL?

2010 “REALITY IS MODEL DEPENTENT”

WHAT IS A GOOD SCIENTIFIC MODEL?

1. ELEGANT (equation, drawing, recipe, demonstration).

2. CONTAINS…FEW ARBITRARY ELEMENTS.

3. EXPLAINS… ALL OBSERVATIONS.

4. PREDICTS… DISPROVABLE FEATURES.

PROPERSCIENTIFIC METHOD

1. RANDOMIZED CONTROLED SELECTION,

AND2. PEER REVIEW

Experiment

and model

Nikola Tesla 10 July 1856 – 7 January 1943)

Serbian-American[4][5][6] inventor, electrical engineer,

mechanical engineer, and futurist known for the

design of the modern Alternating Current (AC)

Electricity supply system. 1893.[7]

Karl Friston 12 July 1959 –60 y.o.

British psychiatrist and neuroscientist known for the

Design of the modern Free Energy Principle, and a

(Reality-Belief supply system 2014.

ENERGY GENERATORS: PHYSICAL AND MENTAL2 GENERATIVE MODELS

Contemporary: Informational,Neuroscientific, Probabilistic.

Classical:Material, Deterministic,Cause Effect.

llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

X Newton: 1687, FORCE=(MASS)(ACCELERATION)

X Maxwell/Faraday 1862 Electromagnetism

REQUIRES CALCULUS MatterHAS…

MASS,

CHARGE,

Classical:Cause Effect

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

l

X Tesla 1885 Electric Generator

X DesCartes: 1637 Cartesian Spatial coordinates

TIMELINE OF RELEVENT MODELS

G. E. P. Box George Edward Pelham Box, 18 October 1919 – 28 March 2013. Statistician, who worked in the areas of quality control, time-series analysis, design of experiments, and Bayesian inference. He has been called “one of the great statistical minds of the 20th century”.

LAW OF LEAST ACTION

WATER MOLECULES FIND PATHS OF LEAST ACTION IN LOCAL ENVIRONMENT

WHY THE CURL AT THE BOARDER? ENTANGELMENT.

WHY DO PHOTONS DIVERGEWHEN THEY COME THROUGHA HOLE IN THE CLOUDS?

ENTANGELMENTSAT THE BOARDER.

“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful”

llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

X Newton: 1687, FORCE=(MASS)(ACCELERATION)

X Maxwell/Faraday 1862 Electromagnetism

MatterHAS…

MASS,

And

SPIN

X Schrödinger 1926 wavefunction

REQUIRES COMPLEX NUMBERS

X Pauli 1945 spin (up,down}

X Bohr 1913 atomic dynamics

CHARGE,

X Planck 1900 Energy=(h/2π)(frequency)

X Einstein 1905 quanta, ATOMS, spacetime

Classical:Cause Effect

Contemporary: Atomic,(Relativity and Quantum Field Theory)

Informational, Neuroscientific,Probabilistic.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

l

X Tesla 1885 Electric Generator

X Friston 2018 Belief Generator

X DesCartes: 1637 Cartesian coordinates

REQUIRES CALCULUS

TIMELINE OF RELEVENT MODELS

SCIENTIC GENERATIVE

MODELS: PHYSICAL AND

MENTAL

KIRTLAND HOBLER

WITH COMPUTER GRAPHICS!

5 TAKEAWAYS AND 1 TASK ABOUT SCIENTIFIC MODELS:

WHAT ARE THEY AND WHAT DO THEY DO?

2. SIMPLIFY, DESCRIBE AND/OR PREDICT COMPLEX IDEAS.

5. TAKE S.T.E.M. TO S.T.E.A.M.

TASK; NAME 3 OF YOUR FAVORITES MODELS

4. ARE MORE PLEASANT THAN EQUATIONS.

1. MODELS REPRESENT WAYS OF THINKING.

3. DO THE WORK OF FAST THINKING.

Nikola Tesla 10 July 1856 – 7 January 1943)

Serbian-American[4][5][6] inventor, electrical engineer,

mechanical engineer, and futurist known for the

design of the modern alternating current (AC)

electricity supply system.[7]

Karl Friston 12 July 1959 –60 y.o.

British psychiatrist and neuroscientist known for the

Design of the modern Free Energy Principle

Reality-Belief supply system

ENERGY GENERATORS: PHYSICAL AND MENTAL2 GENERATIVE MODELS

Classical:Material Deterministic,Cause Effect

Contemporary: Informational,Neuroscientific, Probabilistic.

MODERN MODELS

A Westinghouse display of the

"Tesla Polyphase System" at

Chicago's 1893 Columbian Exposition

TESLA: 3 PHASE INDUCTION GENERATOR

NICOLA TESLA 1885 INVENTED THE PHYSICAL 3-PHASE GENERATOR OF ELECTROMAGNETIC WORK

NORTH INCREASES VOLTS AT B,SOUTH DECREASES VOLTS AT B.

NICOLA TESLA 1885 INVENTED THEPHYSICAL 3-PHASE GENERATOR

OF ELECTROMAGNETIC WORK

Three-phase transformer with four wire

output: one wire for neutral,others for 1, 2 and 3 phases

MODEL: DYNAMICAL UNIT CIRCLE,

RADIUS=1,CIRCUMFIRENCE= 2 𝚷=1 WAVELENGTH (CLOCKS ARE CIRCULAR AND MOVE)

TESLA: 3 PHASE INDUCTION GENERATOR

ALL SOLUTIONS COME FROM DATA COLLECTED FROM

A GENERATIVE MODEL OF

THE SYSTEM UNDER CURIOSITY

VOLTAGE POSITIVE THEN NEGATIVE(ALTERNATING CURRENT)

NICOLA TESLA 1885 INVENTED THE PHYSICAL 3-PHASE GENERATOR OF ELECTROMAGNETIC WORK

NORTH INCREASES VOLTS AT B,SOUTH DECREASES VOLTS AT B.

3 VOLTAGE PHASES DRIVEMOTOR ARMATURE INPROGRESSIVE DIRECTION

NICOLA TESLA 1885 3-PHASE MOTOR THAT PRODUCES PHYSICAL/MECHANICAL WORK

(FORCE X DISTANCE)

INFORMATION THEORETIC: ALL SOLUTIONSCAN BE REPRESENTED

BY DATA BITS FOR A GENERATIVE MODEL

LEARNING: UPDATING BELIEF SETS

ALL SOLUTIONS COME FROM DATA COLLECTED FROM

A GENERATIVE MODEL OF

THE SYSTEM UNDER CURIOSITY

GENERATIVE MODEL EXPLAINS… 1. E.M. INDUCTION BYRADIANT ENERGY (LIGHT),2. WITH MIRROR SYMMETRY,3. APPLICABLE TO

LIVING/NONLIVING SYSTEMS

ALL INFORMATIONAL SOLUTIONSCOME FROM DATA COLLECTED FROM

AN INFORMATIONALGENERATIVE MODEL OF

THE SYSTEM UNDER CURIOSITY

3 VOLTAGE PHASES DRIVEMOTOR ARMATURE INPROGRESSIVE DIRECTION

NICOLA TESLA 1885 3-PHASE MOTOR THAT PRODUCES PHYSICAL/MECHANICAL WORK

(FORCE X DISTANCE)

ECONOMICWEALTH

Time-line of RELEVANT MODELS

llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

X Newton: 1687, FORCE=(MASS)(ACCELERATION)

X Maxwell/Faraday 1862 Electromagnetism

REQUIRES CALCULUS MatterHAS…

MASS,

And

SPIN

X Schrödinger 1926 wavefunction

REQUIRES COMPLEX NUMBERS

X Pauli 1945 spin (up,down}

X Bohr 1913 atomic dynamics

CHARGE,

X Planck 1900 Energy=(h/2π)(frequency)

X Einstein 1905 quanta, ATOMS, spacetime

Classical:Cause Effect

Contemporary: Atomic,(Relativity and Quantum Field Theory)

Informational, Neuroscientific,Probabilistic.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

l

X Tesla 1885 Electric Generator

X DesCartes: 1637 Cartesian coordinates

ATOMS AND MOLECULE ARE DANCING FOOLS

RED NUCLEAR PROTON, BLUE ELECTRON IN

QUANTUM LEAPS ABSORBINGAND RELEASING LIGHT FREQ.

BOHR’S ATOMICMODEL OF AHYDROGEN ATOM

WATER: OXYGEN ATOM, RED.HYDROGEN ATOMS,WHITE.

MODEL SUPREME!

4. m SPIN (1/2, up or down)

Electron constants☺

S

dp

f

l

s

1. n Principal quantum #, MASS (atomic complexity & size)

2. l angular momentum, CHARGE (electron field shape)

3. m magnetic quantum #, (x,y,z magnetic direction)

PERIODIC TABLE 2020 BASED ON MASS (1,) & SYMMETRIES (2,3,4)

INFORMATION THEORETIC: ALL SOLUTIONSCAN BE REPRESENTED

BY DATA BITS FOR A GENERATIVE MODEL

LEARNING: UPDATING BELIEF SETS

ALL SOLUTIONS COME FROM DATA COLLECTED FROM

A GENERATIVE MODEL OF

THE SYSTEM UNDER CURIOSITY

GENERATIVE MODEL EXPLAINS… 1. E.M. INDUCTION BYRADIANT ENERGY (LIGHT),2. WITH MIRROR SYMMETRY,3. APPLICABLE TO

LIVING/NONLIVING SYSTEMS

Time-line of RELEVANT MODELS

llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

X Newton: 1687, FORCE=(MASS)(ACCELERATION)

X Maxwell/Faraday 1862 Electromagnetism

REQUIRES CALCULUS MatterHAS…

MASS,

And

SPIN

X Schrödinger 1926 wavefunction

REQUIRES COMPLEX NUMBERS

X Pauli 1945 spin (up,down}

X Bohr 1913 atomic dynamics

CHARGE,

X Planck 1900 Energy=(h/2π)(frequency)

X Einstein 1905 quanta, ATOMS, spacetime

Classical:Cause Effect

Contemporary: Atomic,(Relativity and Quantum Field Theory)

Informational, Neuroscientific,Probabilistic.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

l

X Tesla 1885 Electric Generator

X Friston 2018 Belief Generator

X DesCartes: 1637 Cartesian coordinates

FREE ENERGY PRINCIPLE

KARL FRISTON:PSYCHIATRIST

Professor of Neuroscience at University College London

UPDATING OURBELIEF SYSTEMS

REDUCINGUNCERTAINTY

REDUCING ERRORSIN PERCEPTION

MENTAL HEALTH

AND WISDOM

QUESTION: HOW DO I KEEP THE GOLF BALL IN THE FAIRWAY (MIDDLE)?

2. HIT OFF THE TEE 9 TIMES.

5. CORRECT SLICE FIRST

4. CHOOSE AGENERATIVEMODEL

3. 5 IN FAIRWAY BUT NOT VERY FAR,3 SLICE RIGHT,1 HOOKS LEFT,

6. SWING MOREINSIDE OUT.

RIGHTHANDED SWING: OUTSIDE IN-SLICERIGHTHANDED SWING INSIDE OUT –HOOK

MENTAL HEALTH:SENSORY ANALYSISWHAT IS REAL?

QUESTION AFTER 10 YEARS WITH AN OLLI GROUP OF GOLFERS, WHAT HAVEI LEARNED TO CORRECT, DECREASE UNCERTAINTY AND INCREASE FREE ENERGY?

5. WITH MOREFREE ENERGY,

I CAN BETTERENJOY MY FRIENDSAND NATURE

4. MODELING ANGLES OFF CENTER PROVIDESMORE USEFUL DATA THAN

MODELING DISTANCE MEASUREMENTS.

3. THE HARDER I SWING, THE WORST IT GETS.BUT,BALACING RIGHT AND LEFT ARMS WORKS.

6. INCREASED ENJOYMENTHAS LITTLE TO DO WITH SCORE…WHICHHASN’T CHANGED MUCH.

ALL SOLUTIONS COME FROM DATA COLLECTED FROM

A GENERATIVE MODEL OF

THE SYSTEM UNDER CURIOSITY

FREE ENERGY PRINCIPLE

KARL FRISTON:PSYCHIATRIST

Professor of Neuroscience at University College London

UPDATING OURBELIEF SYSTEMS

REDUCINGUNCERTAINTY

REDUCING ERRORSIN PERCEPTION

HEALTH

AND WISDOM

5 TAKEAWAYS AND 1 TASK ABOUT SCIENTIFIC MODELS:

WHAT ARE THEY AND WHAT DO THEY DO?

2. SIMPLIFY, DESCRIBE AND/OR PREDICT COMPLEX IDEAS.

5. TAKE S.T.E.M. TO S.T.E.A.M.

TASK; NAME 3 OF YOUR FAVORITES MODELS

4. ARE MORE PLEASANT THAN EQUATIONS.

1. MODELS REPRESENT WAYS OF THINKING.

3. DO THE WORK OF FAST THINKING.

F=MAFORCE=(MASS)(ACCELERATION)

LAW OF LEAST ACTION

SPATIALCOORDINATES

SPACE/TIMEPARAMETERS

HYDROGENATOM

SPINELECTRON ORBITAL SHAPES

NICOLA TESLA 1885 INVENTED THE PHYSICAL 3-PHASE

GENERATOR OF ELECTROMAGNETIC WORK,

AND

KARL FRISTON IN 2014 DESCRIBED THE MENTAL

NEUROSCIENTIFIC WORK OF BELIEF.

WE WILL SHOW SOME HISTORICAL DETAILS OF EACH, BUT FOCUS ON THE

WHOLISTIC MEANING OF THESE MODERN MODELS OF UNDERSTANDING.

ENERGY GENERATORS: PHYSICAL AND MENTAL2 GENERATIVE MODELS(THE CAPACITY TO DO WORK)

(GENERATES DATA, OUTPUTS EXPLAINATIONS OR PREDICTIONS)

(POTENTIAL/POSITIONAL ENERGY: e.g.,CROWD ELECTRONS IN A BATTERY) /or KINETIC/MOTION ENERGY: e.g.,CAUSE ROTATION OF A MOTOR)

(BIOLOGIC: CORRECT MISTAKES AND LEARN)

MODERN MODELS

KIRTLAND HOBLER

WEALTH

HEALTH

WISDOM