Generating Resource Advisory Committee April 9, 2002.
19
Generating Resource Advisory Committee April 9, 2002
Transcript of Generating Resource Advisory Committee April 9, 2002.
Generating ResourceAdvisory Committee
April 9, 2002
Proposed Forecast after First NGAC Meeting
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0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2000
$ P
er M
MB
tu
History
$2.50
$2.80
$3.25
$3.60
$3.80
1993-99 Average = $ 2.11
Average 2005-25 Medium Forecast = $ 2.98
Comparison to Other Forecasts
Comparison to Other Forecasts
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1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
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4.50
20
00
$/M
MB
tu
EIA-Ref
EIA-Low
EIA-High
DRI-WEFA
GRI
ICF
CEC
Medium Forecast Vs. NYMEX
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0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
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3.50
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4.50
$/M
MB
tu
Medium Forecast
NYMEX 3_3
Adding Historical: 1993-98
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0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
Jan-0
3
Apr-03
Jul-0
3
Oct
-03
Jan-0
4
Apr-04
Jul-0
4
Oct
-04
Jan-0
5
Apr-05
Jul-0
5
Oct
-05
Jan-0
6
Apr-06
Jul-0
6
Oct
-06
Jan-0
7
Apr-07
Jul-0
7
Oct
-07
Jan-0
8
Apr-08
Jul-0
8
Oct
-08
$/M
MB
tu
Medium Forecast
NYMEX 3_3
1993-98
Averages
$3.66
$3.05
$2.18
Historical Gas Price Variationin Months Since 1993
Frequency of Wellhead Price since 1993
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5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 9
Nominal $/Mcf
Fre
qu
ency
Why Higher Prices? Expense of adding supply in significantly larger
increments– In the 1990s demand grew at 1.6% a year; required
adding 323 bcf new supply annually
– EIA forecasts growth of 2% a year; would require adding 614 bcf new supply annually
US natural gas consumption exceeded 22 Tcf in 2000 for the first time since 1973
New wells generally smaller and are produced more quickly
West-Side Utility Natural Gas Costs – 2005 Medium Example
Price Components Price Adjustments
Firm Interruptible
Henry Hub Price $ 2.72 $2.72
Station 2 Price -.39 2.33 2.33
In-Kind Fuel Cost 4.42 % 2.43 2.43
Firm Pipeline Capacity (Incremental) $ .46 2.89
Interruptible Pipeline Capacity $ .23 2.66
Pipeline Commodity Charge $ .04 2.93 2.70
Firm Supply Premium $ .05 2.98
East-Side Utility Natural Gas Costs – 2005 Medium Example
Price Components Price Adjustments
Firm Interruptible
Henry Hub Price $ 2.72 $2.72
AECO Price -.44 2.28 2.28
In-Kind Fuel Cost 2.50 % 2.34 2.34
Firm Pipeline Capacity (Incremental) $ .46 2.80
Interruptible Pipeline Capacity $ .28 2.62
Pipeline Commodity Charge $ .01 2.81 2.63
Firm Supply Premium $ .05 2.86
2005 Forecast North American Supply Basin and Market Area PricesUS$/MMBtu US$/MMBtu
3.083.03
3.253.15
3.65 0.523.34
3.50 3.203.55
0.40 0.20
3.250.35 3.35
0.103.60
0.30
3.30
3.45
Southern California(Topock)
Alberta(AECO C)
Gulf Coast(NYMEX)
Permian(Waha)
Chicago
RockyMountains
(Opal)
San Juan(Blanco)
Anadarko
WestcoastStation 2
Sumas
KingsgateSeattle/Portland Stanfield
Northern California
(Malin)
Pricing Point RelationshipsMedium Basis Delivery Start Price
Differential Cost 2005
Wellhead $2.60$0.12
Henry Hub $2.72
Station 2 ($0.39) $2.33Sumas $0.22 $2.55West-side PNW $0.64 $2.97
AECO ($0.44) $2.28East-side PNW $0.40 $2.68Northern CA $0.80 $3.08
San Juan ($0.26) $2.46CO $0.36 $2.82
Rockies ($0.40) $2.32UT $0.35 $2.67WY $0.40 $2.72MT $0.33 $2.65ID $0.35 $2.67
Permian ($0.17) $2.55CA Border $0.33 $2.88
Southern CA $0.05 $2.93AZ $0.32 $2.87NM $0.24 $2.79NV $0.33 $2.88
World Oil Price Forecasts
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20.00
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70.00
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2000
$/B
arre
l
HistoryLowMedloMediumMedhiHigh
Long-Term Price by Case
Low $16
Medium Low $20
Medium $22
Medium High $26
High $32
Oil Price Forecast Comparisons
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5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
History
Low
Medlo
Medium
Medhi
High
EIA02-R
EIA02-H
EIA902-L
8 Others
Coal Price Forecasts
Mine-mouth price assumptions Delivered price differential to states Other issues regarding coal prices and use?
Historical Mine-mouth Coal Prices
Western Minemouth Coal Prices
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0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
2000
$ pe
r M
MB
tu
Historical Regional Coal Price Trends
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2.00
2.50
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$ p
er
MM
Btu
Industrial
Utility
Assumed Western Mine-mouth Coal Price Trends
Forecast Case Average Annual
Growth Rate
Low - 2.0 %
Medium Low - 1.7 %
Medium - 1.5 %
Medium High - 0.8 %
High - 0.3 %
State Utility Prices Minus Western Mine-Mouth
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0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
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1997
1998
1999
2000
20
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$ /
MM
Btu
WA
OR
MT
UT
WY
CO
NM
AZ
NV
Assumed State Differences in Forecast
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1.20
WA OR ID MT UT WY CO NM AZ NV
20
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$ /
MM
Btu
