Gender Inequality in the School-to-Work Transition in 29 ... · | 7 EU-LFS ad hoc module 2009...

Melinda Mills

Patrick Präg

3rd European User Conference for EU-LFS

and EU-SILC, Mannheim, March 2013

Gender Inequality in the

School-to-Work Transition

in 29 European Countries

| 2

Gender inequality in the labor market

For instance:

› Female managers

Background and research problem | Data and method | Results | Conclusion

0

10

20

30

40

50

% F

em

ale

man

ag

ers

, 2

01

1

LV IS

HU

FR

PL

LT SI

BG

EE

SE

GB

PT IE

EU

-27

CH

NO FI

SK

RO

NL

ES

DE

BE

DK

AT

CZ

LU IT

MT

GR

CY

Source: Eurostat News Release 37/2013

| 3


For instance:

› Female managers

› Gender pay gap

0

10

20

30

Ge

nd

er

pa

y g

ap

(u

nad

juste

d),

20

11

EE

AT

DE

GR

CZ

SK

GB FI

HU

NL

CH

DK

CY

EU

-27

ES

NO

SE

FR IE LV

BG

MT

PT

RO LT

BE

LU IT PL SI

Source: Eurostat, tsdsc340, date of extraction: 2013-03-15


| 4


For instance:

› Female managers

› Gender pay gap

› Part-time work


0

20

40

60

80

% P

art

-tim

e o

f to

tal em

plo

ym

en

t, 2

01

1

NL

CH

DE

AT

BE

LU

GB

NO

SE IT

EU

-27

FR

DK IE IS

MT

ES FI

EE

CZ

PT

CY

GR

PL SI

HU

LV

LT

SK

RO

BG

Women

Men

Source: Eurostat, lfsa_eppga, date of extraction: 2013-03-15

| 5

› Females outperform males in all EU countries

Gender inequality in educational attainment

100

150

200

250

Fem

ale

te

rtia

ry e

du

ca

tio

n g

rad

ua

tes

pe

r 1

00

me

n, 2

01

0

LV

EE IS PL

LT

HU

SK

RO

SE SI

NO

BG

CZ

PT

CY FI

GR

EU

-27 IT BE

MT

DE

DK

ES

NL

LU

GB

FR IE AT

CH

Source: Eurostat, educ_itertc, date of extraction: 2013-03-15


| 6

Gender inequality in educational attainment

› Female advantage fairly recent phenomenon

20

30

40

50

60

70

% F

em

ale

stu

de

nts

in

te

rtia

ry e

du

catio

n,

19

71

–2

010

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

EU-27 average (unweighted)

Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics, date of extraction: 2013-03-14


| 7

EU-LFS ad hoc module 2009

‘Entry of Young People into the Labor Market’

› Young people: 15-34 year-olds

Transition from school to work

› School: leaving formal education for the last time

› Work: first job that lasted for more than three months

› Restricted to transitions in the last five years

29 countries (EU-27 plus Norway and Iceland)

› Switzerland and Germany: questionable data quality


Analytical strategy

› Outcome: First job of more than three months 0/1 › Person-month file to accommodate

time-varying country-level covariates

› Random-effects complementary log-log (cloglog) models (Mills 2011) › Time-constant country variation accounted for

by country dummies

› Analyses conducted in Stata 12.1

| 8



Individual-level predictors

› Educational attainment › low (ISCED 0-2), medium (ISCED 3-4), high (ISCED 5-6)

› Educational field › Main groups of Andersson and Olsson (1999)

› Workplace-based VET › Yes/no

› Worked during education (> 1 month/year) › Yes/no

| 9



Country-level time-varying predictors

› GDP per capita (logged) › Quarterly, source: Eurostat

› Unemployment rate › Monthly, source: Eurostat

› Employment protection legislation › For temporary and permanent contracts separately

› Yearly, sources: Venn (2009) and Muravyev (2010)

› Not available for BG, CY, IS, LU, MT, RO, and SI

| 10



| 11

Sample size N 15-34 year-olds 321,000

After removing …

› Swiss respondents 310,000

› those who left education before 2004 198,000

› those still in education at time of data collection 61,242 of which: non-censored cases 47,131



| 12

› Gender inequality in educational attainment

Preliminary results

0

5

10

15

20

Perc

en

tage

po

int

diffe

rence

be

twe

en

fem

ale

an

d m

ale

te

rtia

ry e

du

ca

tio

na

l a

tta

inm

ent

CY

DK FI

LV

NO

MT

EE IE PL

BG

PT SI

LT

ES IS SE IT LU

GR

HU

BE

UK

FR

NL

CZ

RO

SK

AT

DE

Source: EU-LFS 2009 AHM, own calculations


| 13

› Gender inequality in educational attainment

› Gender differences in fields of education

Preliminary results

-30 -20 -10 0 10

Percentage point difference female minus male

Services

Health and welfare

Agriculture

Engineering, manufacturing, and construction

Sciences

Social sciences, business, and law

Humanities and arts

Education

General

EU-27 plus Norway and IcelandSource: EU-LFS 2009 AHM, weighted, own calculations


| 14

› Marked differences across countries

Preliminary results


0

5

10

15

20

Me

dia

n t

ime

to

en

try in

to f

irst

job

(in

mon

ths)

IT

GR

RO

ES

BG

MT

EU

-27

CY

FR

DE

PT

SK

HU SI

SE

PL

NO LV

LU LT IE FI

EE

DK

CZ

BE

AT

UK IS NL

Source: EU-LFS 2009 AHM (authors' calculations)

| 15

› Gender difference in school-to-work transition arises after ~18 months

Preliminary results


0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

Pro

po

rtio

n in

fir

st

job

0 12 24 36 48 60 72

Months since leaving education

Men

Women

Note: EU-27 plus Norway and IslandSource: EU-LFS AHM 2009 (weighted), authors' calculations

Kaplan–Meier failure estimates

| 16

› Adjusting for education, however, increases the gender difference

Preliminary results


0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

Pro

po

rtio

n in

fir

st

job

0 12 24 36 48 60 72

Months since leaving education

Men

Women

Note: EU-27 plus Norway and IslandSource: EU-LFS AHM 2009 (weighted), authors' calculations

adjusted for education

Kaplan–Meier failure estimates

| 17

› Gender difference across countries

Preliminary results


Women enterfirst job earlier

Nodifference

Men enterfirst job earlier

-5

0

5

10

15

Ge

nd

er

ga

p in

entr

y in

to f

irst

job

(Me

dia

n m

on

ths u

ntil tr

an

sitio

n in

to f

irst

job

)

IT

DE

ES

PT

DK IS

NO

BE

CZ

EE

EU

27

HU IE LU

LV

NL

PL

SE SI

SK

UK

AT

FR LT

RO

BG FI

MT

EL

CY

Source: EU-LFS 2009 AHM (authors' calculations)

| 18

Preliminary results


.05

.1

.15

.2

Pre

dic

ted

pro

ba

bili

ty

Male Female

Didn't work during education

Worked during education

Note: Controlling for age, education, time-constant country variance, and GDP per capitaSource: EU-LFS AHM 2009 (weighted), authors' calculations

› Gendered effect of working during education

| 19

Preliminary results


› Stricter employment protection legislation (EPL) impedes transition

Strictness of EPL: regular contracts

Strictness of EPL: temporary contracts

Unemployment rate

log(GDP per capita)

Cou

ntr

y-l

eve

l p

red

icto

rs

.5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 1.1

Odds ratio

Notes: Model without BG, CY, IS, LU, MT, RO, and SI. Controlling for sex, age, education,and country dummies. Source: EU-LFS 2009 AHM, own calculations

| 20

Preliminary results


› Effect of EPL largely similar between sexes

.05

.1

.15

.2

Pre

dic

ted

pro

ba

bili

tie

s

0 1 2 3 4

Strictness of EPL: temporary contracts

Male

Female

Notes: Model without BG, CY, IS LU, MT, RO, and SIControlling for gender, age, education, GDP, unemployment, and country dummiesSource: EU-LFS 2009 AHM, own calculations

Predictive Margins of female with 95% CIs

› Selection: Large part of sample remains in education

› Unobserved heterogeneity: Family situation can’t be modeled

› EPL: No distinction between temporary/permanent first contract (yet)

| 21

Limitations


› Country differences much more pronounced than gender differences

› Women clearly benefit from better educational attainment and working during education

› Substantial heterogeneity in the size of gender differences across countries

| 22

Conclusions (so far)


› Andersson, Ronnie, and Anna-Karin Olsson. 1999. Fields of Education and Training Manual. Eurostat.

› Mills, Melinda. 2011. Introducing Survival and Event History Analysis. Sage. doi: 10.4135/9781446268360

› Muravyev, Alexander. 2010. "Evolution of Employment Protection Legislation in the USSR, CIS, and Baltic States, 1985-2009." IZA Discussion Paper 5365.

› Venn, Danielle. 2009. "Legislation, Collective Bargaining, and Enforcement. Updating the OECD Employment Protection Indicators." OECD Social, Employment, and Migration Working Papers 89. doi: 10.1787/223334316804

| 23

References


Gender Inequality in the School-to-Work Transition in 29 ... · | 7 EU-LFS ad hoc module 2009...

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