GEM

SKick-off meeting, Hambourg, 4 July 2005

[RAQ]

RegionalAir Quality

Vincent-Henri.Peuch@meteo.fr

GEM

SHow to enhance and improve Regional Air Quality forecasts, hindcasts and analyses across Europe in the GMES context?

• through prescription of realistic chemical boundary conditions

• through assimilation of high-resolution remote-sensing data

• through improvement of models

• through practice of daily forecasting

• through international collaboration in AQ skill scores definition and use

• through development of ensemble and probabilistic forecasting

• through countrywise organisation of consortia (policy, monitoring, assessment, forecasts)

• Last but not least : through interaction with AQ users and policy makers

• …

GEMS for GMES / Air Quality

GEM

SThe team

GEM

SDescripton of Work (1)

•evaluate the advantages of the implementation of satellite information in regional air quality prognoses.

•provide and evaluate in near-real-time forecasts of gases and aerosols at the continental to regional scales across Europe, relying on global assimilated fields and forecasts and on regional scale data assimilation.

•provide continental to regional scales air quality hindcasts and climatologies, assess the effects of variability and changes at the global scale on regional air quality and provide background for policy evaluation and evolution.

GEM

SDescripton of Work (2)

•improve existing continental to regional scales air quality models, statistical post-treatment of forecasts, and explore multi-model ensemble approaches.

•initiate and support cooperative routine cooperation between national air quality forecasts centers for data access, skill evaluation and forecasts comparisons.

•Improve our understanding of the health impacts of air quality and incorporate air quality forecast information into a health forecast.

GEM

SWorkpackages

WP-R

AQ

1W

P-R

AQ

2W

P-R

AQ

3W

P-R

AQ

4W

P-R

AQ

5W

P-R

AQ

6

Impact of global-scale boundary conditions, of high-resolution data assimilation and of detailed emissions

Coordination, interfaces and communication between ECMWF and partner institutes

Coordinated access to verification data over Europe

Pre-operational near-real-time daily forecasts

Regional simulations over re-analyses periods

Use of GEMS data to assess the public health effects of long-range aerosol and reactive gases

V.-H. Peuch (Météo-Fr)

H. Elbern (FRIUUK)

L. Tarrason (met.no)

G. Bergametti (CNRS)

D. Jacob (MPI-M)

D. Briggs (ICSTM)

GEM

SGRG

IFSops

AER

GEMS central site

Global archives

MOCAGE

RAQ archives

UMAQMETO.UKUK

CHIMERE CNRS, INERISFrance

CACDMIDenmark

UAM-V NKUAGreece

BOLCHEM ISACItaly

EMEPmet.noNorway

EURADFRIUUKGermany

SILAM

MATCH

FMIFinland

Partners sites

EURAD

BOLCHEM

PRO

GEM

SW

ebsi

te

RAQ1-4-5 : models

Météo-Fr

FRIUUK

ISAC

GEM

S

Reactive gases

boundary values

Aerosolboundary

values

GRG

AER

Emissionrates

Analyses • Europe• Regions

Sensitivities

• Met. forcings• Chem. bound.• Emis. rates

Satellite retievalsIn situ observations

CHIMERE

MOCAGE

BOLCHEM

EURAD

EMEP

3D,4D-var

Kriging

3D-fgat, KF

tbd

1D-var

RAQ2 : boundaries, emissions, assimilation

GEM

S

EMEP

HELCOM

OSPAR

GAW

CREATE project DAEDALUS project

GATO project Met-Moniteur

…MOZAIC data

GEMS RAQ verification data flow

RAQ3 : coordinated access to databases , verificacation

NRT verification

GEM

SRAQ6 : Health aspects

GEM

S

•GEMS RAQ, EEA and national environment institutes

•GEMS RAQ and national consortia : EURAD, Prév’Air,...

•GEMS RAQ and GSE PROMOTE

•GEMS RAQ and a COST action initiative on AQ forecasting

Synergieshttp://www.prevair.org

http://www.gse-promote.org